AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter was live on the AccuWeather Network on Sept. 20 to discuss a storm that could bring impacts to the U.S. later this month.
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00:00I want to bring in AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter, and you know, John, you and the forecasting team and our broadcast meteorologists here,
00:09we've been sounding the alarm for quite some time.
00:13Let's give our viewers up to the date. Let's get them up to date with the latest information.
00:19Good morning. Our team of over 100 expert meteorologists and hurricane experts have been monitoring this very closely.
00:25Our team just met this morning, looked over all the data, and we continue to forecast a high risk for development.
00:31We're the only source that has such a high level of development risk for a storm that has not formed yet,
00:39but that we expect will in the northwest Caribbean.
00:42And, of course, we've been talking about for several days ahead of all other sources, as you mentioned,
00:47the greatest risk for this from Louisiana to Florida, but we still can't rule out anywhere along the Gulf Coast.
00:53And, of course, the strength, we're going to get into that because it's a little complicated depending on the wind shear.
00:59But no doubt the process has started for our tropical development.
01:06It sure has. You notice all these thunderstorms in the yellow or yellows and oranges and reds.
01:11These are tall thunderstorms going high up into the atmosphere.
01:15And we're starting to get more thunderstorm activity both in the eastern Pacific and then also in the Caribbean.
01:21And generally it's going to take some time, but the pressures will lower in this area,
01:25and these are where the thunderstorms will start to congeal into our new storm system early next week.
01:32And there's that high risk area.
01:34Now, the development area, we've been talking about this, northwest Caribbean and the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico,
01:41as we head into the early part of the week.
01:44That has not changed, John. We have been messaging that since Tuesday.
01:48Now, what we like to do is let's look at history and let's look at meteorology.
01:53Let's start with history.
01:54What we did, John, is we took all of the storms that formed during the month of September
02:00and moved into that area in the northwest Caribbean.
02:03We tracked 42 storms.
02:05Where did they go to give us an idea about if there was an impact in the Gulf of Mexico,
02:10what is the most likely area or areas?
02:14Yes, you and Ari crunched the numbers yesterday morning to come up with these,
02:18which is a great tool because climatology always tells us a lot about where a developing system may track.
02:25And notice the highest probabilities toward the central Gulf Coast,
02:29also the Florida Peninsula and Mexico and Central America, but you can't rule out Texas.
02:34See, 14 percent of the storms over history went in that direction as well.
02:39So these are the kind of main focus areas and why we're so concerned about that corridor from Louisiana to Florida.
02:45All right. When you take a look at history, what it also tells us, not only the area, John,
02:50but typically these systems tend to intensify this time of the year.
02:56So history tells us central and eastern Gulf with an intensifying system.
03:01Now let's leverage the meteorology into it.
03:04Right. You've got that warm water, the abundant moisture, low wind shear.
03:09Those are all factors that lead to intensification of a hurricane.
03:14Now, the only thing that we've not.
03:19That's the key to whether this is going to strengthen into a hurricane or if it is a weaker system.
03:28It all hinges, John, on this dip in the jet stream as we head into the middle part of next week.
03:34It all comes down to where exactly this dip is.
03:37Is it further south? Is it further north? What's the timing of it?
03:41Because what will end up happening here is if this dip is further to the south,
03:46it's going to more quickly draw a storm up from this development region toward Florida.
03:53And the storm may not be as strong at that point, but still a concern and a risk.
03:58But a slower jet stream, a weaker jet stream disturbance is going to allow for the storm to slowly churn north toward the central Gulf Coast.
04:07That's the scenario where this could be a very significant hurricane.
04:11In fact, a major hurricane as it approaches the Gulf Coast and one that we're concerned about.
04:16I've seen a lot of chatter, John, on social media.
04:19Why in the world would you give all this information for a storm that hasn't formed yet?
04:25Well, because here at AccuWeather, John, we don't just read the models, we actually forecast the weather.
04:31And it's our job to give as much information as quick as we can.
04:35That's an important point. Our goal is never to scare people, but to inform people,
04:40let you know everything we know so that you can be safer and make the best decisions.
04:46That's what we do here at AccuWeather. So we're not going to hold back any information that could be valuable in making those best plans.
04:52So now is the time to prepare more frequently.
04:55Check back in with us here at AccuWeather for frequent updates on the AccuWeather network, the AccuWeather app and AccuWeather.com.
05:01We'll keep you informed here over the next couple of days and recognize you may need to modify some of your plans.
05:07If you're going to be if you live in the areas along the Gulf Coast or if you're traveling there into next week and we want to make you aware of that.
05:13It's a threat that moves toward the Gulf Coast later next week in the next weekend. So we have time.
05:19All right. AccuWeather chief meteorologist Jonathan Porter. John, thanks again for joining us.
05:23Good to be with you.