Exploring the 2025 NBA MVP Odds and Top Contenders
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00:00I'll tell you one thing. I'm excited for this segment. On the day after the day the NBA season comes to a close, it is never too early to look at the 2025 NBA MVP odds. And it is an interesting outlook with where the NBA is expected to go next season around the association. I'm sure my excitement is only matched by my co-host Donnie Reitzeit.
00:29How long is this segment going to be? Is it the normal segment? Is this the 55-second segment here that we're going to have? So that's the only question for me right now, B-double-S.
00:38Yeah, it's about a normal one, about eight minutes of time. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic, co-favorites as of this moment entering the 2024-25 NBA campaign. Of course, the Joker has won three NBA MVP awards in the past four seasons.
00:59So, I will say this right now. I'll say the same thing in October if asked again. Do not bet Nikola Jokic to win the NBA MVP award. You are going to be giving away your money. It does not matter if his stats match what he has done in any of his three NBA MVP winning campaigns or even two years ago when he came up short against Joel Embiid.
01:22He is not going to win it. Voter fatigue and the narrative behind it will take its toll. That's why my bet, although it's the second shortest number alongside Jokic, at plus 380, is going to be on Luka Doncic. It feels like his time to win the NBA MVP award. He came up short in the NBA finals.
01:41Maybe a lasting image will be some of the frustration that overwhelmed his play at times for the Dallas Mavericks in this NBA championship series, but it feels like Luka Doncic, who can put up historic stats and numbers like we have seen from Nikola Jokic in the last half decade in the NBA, is going to win the NBA MVP award this upcoming year. My money's on Luka.
02:04Yeah, and it's supposed to be on Luka, right? Because, you know, I always talk about like how you get to be an all pro in the NFL. You actually have to do it for like two years before you get to become that all pro. And it feels like sometimes in the MVP market, we don't like surprise MVPs like, wow, never saw this coming. This guy wasn't even in the top 20 for MVP. And here he is winning it here. It's almost like you have to earn that MVP. Joel Embiid earned his MVP with a couple years of with a chance to do it. They finally gave it to him.
02:28Nikola Jokic the same way, but it just feels like the evolution of the NBA is we know how good Luka is. If he's healthy, he's earned the right and the respect where he possibly could be a walking triple double next year, just like Nikola Jokic is. And quite frankly, if both of their statistics, Ben, are side by side the same, like we're seeing their odds right now, Luka Doncic is going to get that award. So let's take a look at the field at the Fandu Sports, at least the top six. Jokic, Doncic, SGA, Antetokounmpo, Embiid and Edwards here.
02:57If I'm saying right now, regardless, let's just put all these players, Ben, in the same bucket. They're healthy. They have 65 games under their belt and they've all been fantastic. I'm taking Jokic out. I'm taking Giannis out. I'm taking Embiid out, which leaves me with Luka Doncic, SGA and Anthony Edwards because we want the next great thing.
03:16We're ready to anoint Anthony Edwards at 15-1 right now to be an MVP. Maybe it's not his year next year. We're ready for Luka Doncic to be that MVP. We're ready for SGA who said, you know what? Well, he put a young team on his back and had a sensational season. Now he's worthy of that MVP award. He was close this year. Same thing that we talked about Luka Doncic.
03:35That's just the way the human element goes because again, if all things are equal, they don't want to give it to the Joker again. They don't want to give it to Embiid or Antetokounmpo, even if they're walking triple doubles, as we said. Fresh faces here that have earned it, Doncic, SGA, Anthony Edwards. That's where I'm going this year, Ben.
03:52Donnie, I think it's a wonderful handicap. I really do. I think the way that you just approached the MVP award is how the oddsmakers are approaching next season in terms of team success in what is expected. Let's look at the NBA championship odds. The Celtics are a very short favorite to go back-to-back at 3-1. Jason Tatum has the shortest price of any Boston player at 19-1 to win the NBA MVP. It's not going to happen. The guy couldn't win the ECF MVP or the NBA Finals MVP on his own team.
04:22The Denver Nuggets have the second-shortest price at plus $7.50, but we just shared. Nikola Jokic has won three NBA MVP awards in the last four years. He's not winning it for a fourth time in five seasons. It's not happening regardless of how ridiculous his stats and historic they will end up being. And we're not saying he's going to have a bad year and start averaging 26-4. He's still going to average damn near a triple-double. He's just not winning it.
04:49So there are four other teams then at a 10-1 price or shorter. The Timberwolves at plus $8.50, the Mavs at 9-1, and the Bucs and the Thunder at a 10-1 price each of those two clubs. Anthony Edwards plays for Minnesota, Luka Doncic plays for Dallas, and Shea Gilgis-Alexander plays for OKC.
05:09The oddsmakers are expecting a new evolution and era, if you will, in terms of NBA title contenders, and that's led by the young superstars in terms of the MVP race. Shea Gilgis-Alexander, if he plays 75 regular season games next year, is probably going to score 30-plus in 50 of them. Anthony Edwards is a budding superstar with the personality to match, and Luka Doncic, as we all well know, can put up historic stats like we have ever seen.
05:38Remember when he had six consecutive games of a 30-point triple-double? Might have even been seven in a row as I try to think back to February and March. Nobody in the history of the association had ever done that. What was the amount of points? And he scored 72? 72 in a game back in December or January? Luka Doncic can do those things and accomplish those feats. It's why he gets my money. But if not him, I think SGA and the Ant-Man make a ton of sense as well.
06:08It is, and by the way, it is a very funny point because Jason Tatum is one of the best players in the NBA, and he has a 19-to-1 price to win the MVP, which is in the ballpark there, but it's almost like there's no shot he can win it. Like, what can the Celtics do next year? Well, the best player on the best team, yep, the Celtics were by far the best team last year. He didn't even sniff an MVP award when it was all said and done. You're right about that. Dude couldn't even win it in the Eastern Conference Finals or even the Finals to get that mark. So yeah, maybe we feel bad we give him the MVP of the regular season next year.
06:34And I'll tell you an interesting one. 35-to-1 on that price point right here for the Panblue Sportsbook is Victor Webinyama. Now, I know a lot of people are like, yeah, he can win it next year. I'm telling you right now, you have to earn it before you win it. He could be the best player in the NBA next year. Number one, I don't think his team is going to be all that great, which means contending for the Western Conference, that's automatically tough to give.
06:53But he needs one of those performances as if he is the best player in order for the next year actually to be crowned MVP. So it is 35-to-1. It's an interesting choice, but no way, shape, or form am I betting Webinyama to be MVP next year.
07:06It opened at 50-to-1, according to our producer Joe Frizzo, who is great at tracking these numbers, already shaved off by $15. When did it open at 50-to-1 and who has bet it that much in the last 48 hours? More on the early run up next.