Top Pollster Reveals Which Voters Democrats Need To Attract To Win In 2024

3 months ago

Anthony Williams, Special Projects Director at Bendixen & Amandi International, joined Brittany Lewis on "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss a new 2024 presidential poll in the aftermath of the historic debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

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Transcript

00:00The debate has been talked about ad nauseum for the past two weeks. Do you think anything is missing

00:06from the national conversation? Any angle overlooked when you're hearing the conversations

00:11about the debate and you're looking at these numbers? Well, as I'm looking at these numbers,

00:16as I said at the outset, the conversation here begins with whether or not President Biden should

00:23continue as the nominee. And we asked that specific question in the poll as well. And only 33 percent

00:29of people said yes. And again, only a third of Democrats said yes. A wide majority of

00:35independents and no party and third party voters indicated that he should not. Only black voters

00:42lean towards him staying in the race. And even that group is 50 percent yes, 30 percent no,

00:48and 20 percent undecided. For comparison, Biden won 87 percent of the black vote in 2020.

00:54So clearly there are some concerns here. I think Democrats are having a constructive conversation

01:01as any reasonable organization in such a situation would have. And it's going to be up to President

01:08Biden whether or not he chooses to step aside or if he believes that he still has the vigor

01:14to run this race and prosecute the case against President Trump. Until that question is settled,

01:21it's going to be difficult for any of the other issues within the political landscape to really

01:27emerge. We first have to determine whether or not President Biden is going to continue

01:32and whether the majority of the country and a significant number of people in his own party

01:36believe that he has the mental and physical ability to continue.

01:40President Biden has said in no uncertain terms that he is going to continue.

01:45Calls from his party even today before you and I came on continue to be vocalized that

01:51they think President Biden should step aside. So what are you looking out for between now and

01:56November? Well, I think there's two windows to look out for. There's what to look out for over

02:03the course of the next week or two, both during and after the Republican convention, how that goes,

02:09how that's reported out in the media, as well as in the lead up to the Democratic party officially

02:15declaring their nominee when they vote later on this month. As this poll shows, not only is the

02:22majority of voters overall concerned about President Biden's age and capacity, but a third

02:30of Democrats are in that same boat. And I think that Democratic members of Congress, other Democratic

02:39leaders around the country are hearing that. And that's fundamentally the conversation that is

02:44being had. Can the president convince his base that he's good? And moreover, can he convince

02:54unaffiliated third party independent voters of the same? We know that historically,

03:02by the time we get to November, both parties typically rally around their nominee,

03:07and those nominees can expect to receive 90 plus percent of the voters of their own party.

03:15The question, therefore, is which way do independents swing? That has been the case now,

03:21you know, several election cycles in a row, and it's in part the answer as to why the presidency

03:28has gone back and forth, the very independent, the important independent vote has been the key

03:33determinant of who ends up in the White House. And as I mentioned, currently, independents are

03:39very concerned by wide margins, more than 20% percentage points about the president's ability

03:45to serve and whether or not he should remain the nominee. So the question is not necessarily who's

03:52best for Democrats, because whatever Democrat ends up at the end of at the top of the ticket

03:57is probably going to get 90 plus percent of Democratic voters. The question is more likely

04:02who can appeal to those independents, because that's going to be where the race is decided.

Top Pollster Reveals Which Voters Democrats Need To Attract To Win In 2024

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