Deep Dive 16/07/2024 – Heat and tornadoes – Met Office weekly weather forecast UK
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. After a somewhat disappointing start to July, we are going to have a glimpse if something more summery before the changeable and cooler weather returns. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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00:00Is summer finally coming? Well, the short answer is, for some of us, yes, we will get
00:07a glimpse of something a bit more summery during the latter part of this week. I'll
00:12have more details about this coming up, and I'll be looking at everything weather through
00:17the rest of this deep dive. Welcome along. I'm Alex Burkill, a presenter and meteorologist
00:23here at the Met Office. I'm coming to you from our headquarters in Exeter, and I will
00:28be talking for the next 20, possibly 30 minutes or so. If you've not watched any of our
00:33deep dives before, welcome. If you have, and you're a returning viewer, then welcome
00:38back. But let's start off looking at what happened yesterday. And you may be aware yesterday
00:43was St. Swithin's Day, the 15th of July, named after St. Swithin, the Bishop of Winchester
00:49from the 9th century. And the saying goes, if you have rain on St. Swithin's Day, you'll
00:54then have it for 40 days and nights. If it's sunny, then you'll have that instead for 40
00:59days or 40 nights. Now, worth bearing in mind that as far as records go back, so as far
01:04as 1861, that has never happened. We've never had 40 consecutive days of the same weather
01:11following St. Swithin's Day. But there are some people that still think it may be true.
01:16I think many of us looking at yesterday's weather will be grateful that it probably
01:22isn't going to be the case. And well, to be honest, it definitely isn't going to be
01:26the case for the UK. If we look at the picture that we had yesterday across us, and if I
01:31put our radar on, and if I go through yesterday's picture, and you'll probably be aware, but
01:37across much of England and Wales, we had some heavy rain pushing its way and a really wet
01:43start to the week, particularly across England and Wales. Even eastern parts of Scotland
01:47had some heavy thundery downpours. But yes, England and Wales, it really was a very wet
01:52day yesterday. Lots of rain around. But I also want to draw your attention to what was
01:57happening over some northern parts of Ireland. If we look towards the far north of Ireland,
02:04and if I dart back to yesterday afternoon, and there were some intense thundery downpours
02:09that kicked off here. And with that, then, I have got some footage of a funnel cloud.
02:15And this was taken in Letterkenny by Gary Price. And you can see, yes, the funnel cloud
02:21did develop. You can't quite see whether or not it was touching the ground. It doesn't
02:26really look like it actually was touching the ground. So probably not a tornado, but
02:31nonetheless, a funnel cloud. And that is quite dramatic. And it's some very good footage
02:36of this that we have here. Just to go back to the radar image for northern parts of Ireland.
02:44And the fact that we had these intense thunderstorms, that intense convection, that really goes
02:49in line with the fact that a tornado could form. So it's no great surprise that happened.
02:55There were reports of some tornadoes in parts of southwest England over the weekend as well.
03:01And just goes to show, yes, in the British Isles, we do get some tornadoes and some funnel
03:06clouds at times, albeit they're generally not all that damaging and generally pretty
03:12short lived. But I know what you're saying, Alex, you told me we might get something more
03:16summery coming this week. So let's take a look at that. Let's start off looking at the
03:20bigger picture that we have at the moment. As we go through the next 24 hours or so,
03:25we are going to see a ridge of high pressure building across southern parts. So the weather
03:29is going to be turning a bit dry. If I get rid of the jet stream for a second, put the
03:33rain on instead. And as you can see, as we go into Wednesday, there will be some fine
03:37weather for many of us, a few showers around, but on the whole, largely dry and a decent
03:42amount of sunshine, too. Later on, as we go through into Thursday, there is a weather
03:47system coming in from the west northwest, and that's going to bash up against that high
03:51pressure. So it's not going to make a huge amount of progress across the UK. But for
03:56northwestern parts of the UK, particularly parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, we are
04:01going to see some rain making its way in as we go through Thursday. What then happens
04:05thereafter? And we have to look a little bit further to the west. And if I put the
04:09jet stream back on and as we go through the next 24, 48 hours or so, we are going to see
04:16an active jet developing just to the eastern side of Canada. And this active jet is going
04:22to do a couple of things. It's going to amplify a feature out to the west of the UK. And so
04:28that means this feature here is going to become a bit more intense as we go towards the end
04:33of the week. As a result, if I put my rain back on through into Friday again towards
04:40northwestern parts of the UK, could get some rain pushing in due to this active feature
04:45that will be coming in from the west. A bit of uncertainty as to how far that pushes in,
04:49but do just be aware northwestern parts of the country could have some wet weather on
04:54Friday. But it's the temperatures that we want to look at. And if I put on our winds
05:01and our air mass and you can see because of that jet driving this trophy feature,
05:07that will allow us to be dragging in our air from the south as we go through the second
05:11half of this week. And that means we're going to be dragging in some hot air. So our temperatures
05:16are set to rise. How high? A bit of uncertainty, but it does look like we're going to get
05:23something markedly hotter across at least the southeast than it has been recently.
05:28If we look at our maximum temperatures forecast and if I take London, for example,
05:33if I actually click on it, we'll try third time lucky. Okay, fourth time lucky. Okay,
05:39I don't know why this isn't working. It worked when I practiced. Let's try Glasgow first
05:42of all. Here we go. So Glasgow starting off and you can see there's not any major change
05:48in temperatures. It gets a little bit warmer through Wednesday because of the generally
05:52fine picture, but then with the chance of something a bit more unsettled coming in from
05:56the northwest on both Thursday and Friday, temperatures are nothing really to write home
06:02about high teens, low twenties. So not too bad by any means, but not exceptionally warm at all.
06:09However, if we look at London and it is now going to work, there we go. And temperatures
06:14are really going to rise as we go through this week. So low twenties up to mid to high
06:19twenties, probably even low thirties in some places on Friday, 30, 31 Celsius looks quite
06:26likely. And then we're likely to see temperatures dropping down a bit. I'll talk about that. And
06:30again, in a bit more in a bit more in a second, because I just wanted to point out that it's not
06:36just by day that it's going to be pretty hot. It's also by night that we're going to have
06:41some high temperatures. My touchscreen is really not playing ball at the moment.
06:47So I will carry on anyway. And if we look at our minimum temperatures for London
06:54and you can see that mid teens through the next couple of nights, but then rising to high teens,
07:00possibly even low twenties, some places through Thursday night, possibly Friday night may stay
07:07above 20 Celsius, which would make it a tropical night. Now, these kind of temperatures really
07:12difficult for sleeping. Some people might struggle. Now, as a result, there is a heat
07:17health alert out that's been issued by the UK Health Security Agency because of the fact that,
07:24yes, it's going to be quite hot by day, but also uncomfortably warm by night for some places,
07:30particularly towards the southeast of the UK. So just be aware of that.
07:34What happens thereafter? And does the hot weather last? Well, no, it looks like as we go through
07:41the weekend, we are going to see I'm going to put my rain and get rid of the jet. We're going to see
07:46a system eventually making its way across the UK. And so that's going to bring some rain to
07:51many places as we go through the weekend and also change to something cooler. So our temperatures
07:56are then going to drop again. There is some uncertainty about the timing of this feature.
08:02There's a fair chance that this frontal system takes a little bit longer to push through,
08:06in which case, particularly towards east and southeastern parts, Saturday actually looks like
08:11a decent day and we will keep with that very warm hot weather could possibly still be in the low 30s
08:17for some places on Saturday. But there is a reasonable chance that the system will come
08:22through and bring that change to something more changeable, a bit wetter and also cooler as we
08:27go through Saturday and then also Sunday as well. Thereafter, that's likely to clear through. And
08:32then as we go into next week, low pressure somewhere towards the north of the UK. Yes,
08:36high pressure towards the south, but relatively far towards the south. And this pattern will allow
08:42for a mobile westerly pattern to develop as we go through next week. And so that suggests that
08:47we're going to see rain coming in from the west, northwest at times and no great shakes temperature
08:53wise feeling pretty cool. Not that much like summer at times because of the more changeable
08:59weather that we're likely to see as we go through next week. But then there are some promising signs
09:08towards the end of July and the start of August. If I show you this chart and this shows the most
09:14likely pressure trends with the greater the bar, the greater the likelihood the reds, the oranges
09:20showing higher pressure. And so that's what's most likely as we go through the latter part of this
09:25week, which goes in line with that hot weather that I've just talked about. The idea that it's
09:30going to be a bit more settled for a time across much, not all, but much of the UK. Then we go to
09:35the blues and so a more changeable, wetter pattern. And these darker blues show a positive NAO. So
09:41that's the mobile westerly theme that I just showed you. That's most likely as we go through
09:47next week. And so it's a fairly changeable at times unsettled story. But into the following
09:53week and towards the very end of the month, there are some reds returning again. So there's a greater
09:59chance than next week anyway, a greater chance that we could see something a bit more settled
10:05developing. Even if it doesn't happen towards the end of the month and we have to wait until
10:10August for something a bit more settled. There are some signs that we could see something a bit
10:16drier, perhaps a bit warmer. And if it does happen, it could be a bit more prolonged than
10:21this real just glimpse of summer that we're going to have as we go through next week.
10:27Now I mentioned the fact that we have a heat health alert out and you may be saying that
10:32those temperatures aren't that high. And you're right in as much as they're not record breaking,
10:36but they could still cause some problems for some people, particularly those more susceptible
10:40to the heat. And so the majority of us will just notice that it's pretty hot if you're in the
10:46southeast, especially. But most people won't be bothered. But I think what many of us will notice
10:51will be the change to what it's been, because I think it's fair to say that so far this summer,
10:57it's been fairly disappointing. Or has it? Because if we look at the statistics and let's start off
11:03with our mean temperature and this is the rolling mean temperature through summer so far. And yes,
11:10it has actually been lower than average by around a degree or so, not quite a degree,
11:17been below average temperature wise so far this summer and not record breaking.
11:23You can see the blue line at the bottom shows the coolest summer on record. This black line in the
11:28middle is average and this blue line shows this summer. And so you can see it is has been cooler
11:33than average so far this summer. But what about rain? It feels like it's been raining constantly
11:39this season. To be honest, it feels like it's been raining constantly since I started
11:44full time presenting. But actually, if we look at summer so far, it's been generally a little bit
11:49drier than average. Yes, as we've gone through taking yesterday's heavy rain into account,
11:56we've got pretty much up to average. So it's very close to average for summer at this stage
12:03in the season. That being said, there is some more unsettled, changeable weather to come as
12:07we go through next week. So things could change as we go through the rest of July. But actually,
12:13even though it feels like it's been really wet recently, it hasn't been that wet overall when
12:18we look at summer so far. If we look at July, it's a slightly different story. Again, looking
12:23at our mean temperature and you can see that it's been significantly cooler than average through
12:28pretty much the whole of July so far, which I don't think will be a huge surprise to many of
12:33you. But if we look at rainfall amounts and again, not a huge surprise. It has been significantly
12:39wetter than average so far through this month. Again, nowhere near record breaking levels,
12:44but nonetheless, it has been quite a wet start to the month. And if we look at that in a different
12:50way, here are our maps comparing the rainfall totals that we've seen so far up to including
12:56yesterday. So the first 15 days of July, not quite half. And this is comparing them with the average
13:02for the whole month. And so the areas where it's white show where we've had near average rainfall.
13:08But remember, we're comparing the first half of summer 2024 with the whole of summer average.
13:15And yes, towards the northwest of the UK, it has been a fair bit drier, but that could all change
13:20next week with that more changeable, that westerly pattern that I mentioned coming in from the west.
13:26And so that could change. We could get a wetter picture towards northwestern parts of the UK.
13:31But in the southeast and across eastern parts, it's been significantly wetter than average
13:36so far this July. In fact, some places, Berkshire, City of London, Hertfordshire,
13:42have already had around 150% of their average July rainfall. And we're not even halfway through
13:50the month yet. Pretty much halfway, but not quite halfway through the month yet. And so it has been
13:55really wet for some of us. Great. Then one thing else that I did want to point out to you is I
14:02talked a lot about the longer range forecast, what we can expect through the next week,
14:0714 days or so. If you do want more information about what we can expect through the next 14 days,
14:13make sure you do check out our longer range forecast, which is available on our app. If
14:17you don't have it, then you can download it in all the usual places. But if you haven't seen,
14:22then make sure you scroll down below the video forecast. There's an option to click on the UK
14:26long range weather forecast. And if you do, there'll be a bit of text and also a 14 day video,
14:31which we update every Tuesday and Friday. So I will be updating that shortly with more detail
14:36about what we can expect in terms of the weather as we go through the rest of July. Now, a couple
14:43of things that I wanted to end on before I leave you today, and we're going to look globally. So
14:50starting off across southeastern parts of Europe, because we have had some very high temperatures
14:55there recently, if I put the jet stream back on and the jet has really formed the boundary through
15:01the last week or so between something a bit fresher, the cooler air to the north of the jet,
15:06which has been affecting northern parts of Europe, including the UK, which is why it's been a bit
15:10disappointing so far this July. Whereas across southern parts of Europe, a very different story,
15:16temperatures for some places have been 5, 10 or more degrees above average. And there have been
15:21heatwave conditions across parts of Spain and further east into Italy, Greece, Macedonia,
15:26Turkey. These places have seen temperatures in excess of 40 Celsius and some very warm,
15:32sticky nights as well. The heatwave conditions, particularly across southeast Europe,
15:37are going to continue through much of this week before starting to ease as we go through the
15:42weekend. But still the risk of some places seeing temperatures in excess of 40 Celsius,
15:47still some tropical nights, so some difficult sticky nights with temperatures staying above 20
15:51Celsius. And with all that taken into account, some very dry air, the risk of thunderstorms,
15:59there's an increased risk of wildfires in some of these places as well. So that could cause some
16:04issues. The other thing globally that I wanted to draw your attention to is what's happening
16:11in southern India at the moment. So the recent week or so across much of Asia, we have had
16:19heavier than normal monsoon rain. Now it is monsoon season, but the rain has been even heavier than
16:25normal across parts of India, Pakistan, Nepal. We've seen some impacts as a result. Through this
16:30week, it looks like the heaviest monsoon rain will be across southern parts of India. Now, July is
16:36India's wettest month, but the average is around a thousand millimetres. And some places in southern
16:42India could see around six to 700 millimetres in just this week alone. So a large chunk of that
16:48July rainfall will be coming in just a week or so, which is why we are going to see some issues
16:53due to the heavy rain. But like I said, across many parts of Asia, it has been very wet recently.
16:58The monsoon season has been wetter than normal. I think that's everything that I wanted to go
17:04through with you today. I do hope you enjoyed it. Remember, as always, I will be answering any
17:10questions you have in the comments. So do leave a comment if you're watching this, particularly
17:15if you're watching it closer to four o'clock on Tuesday, because that's when I'll be looking. But
17:19I will look again later on as well. So do leave any comments that you have. I do enjoy reading
17:25them, particularly the positive ones. Also, remember, if you have enjoyed what I've been
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17:35And remember, you can share this video with someone who you might think may find something
17:39that I've talked about today a bit interesting. So please do that. Otherwise, I will see you again
17:45soon. Have a lovely rest of your day and enjoy your evening. Bye bye.