10 Day Trend 28/08/2024 – High pressure is coming
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 28/08/2024.
Some uncertainty this weekend with rain/thunder for some before high pressure looks to dominate next week.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
Some uncertainty this weekend with rain/thunder for some before high pressure looks to dominate next week.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hey there. Now, I know for some of us it doesn't really feel like this summer has ever got
00:05going, but it is almost the end of meteorological summer and the start of autumn. But what can
00:10we expect? Well, starting off looking at our pressure trend. If you're a regular viewer
00:15of these 10-day trends, you'll have no doubt seen a chart like this before. It shows the
00:20most likely pressure pattern as we go through the next two weeks. And you may know that
00:26reds indicate that higher pressure is more likely. And higher pressure generally means
00:31settled dry conditions. And this is what we have looking further ahead. Yes, notice around
00:37this coming weekend, less of a signal, so some changeable unsettled weather quite likely.
00:43But generally, the trend as we go through into the start of autumn is for high pressure
00:48to be most dominant. Doesn't mean it's going to be totally dry. There is some devil in
00:53the detail, which I'll come on to shortly. But starting off looking at the picture we
00:58have at the moment, we did have some hot weather across parts of the southeast on Wednesday.
01:03But with these various fronts coming in from the West, they're going to clear the hot air
01:07away. And so something turning a bit fresher as we go overnight into Thursday and with
01:11some clear skies around could be a bit of a fresh start for some of us on Thursday morning.
01:16Through Thursday itself, quite a few showers, particularly across parts of Scotland, but
01:20also Northern Ireland and some showers for parts of northern Western England and Wales.
01:25But towards the south southeast, staying largely dry, decent amount of sunshine, still warm,
01:29although temperatures down a few degrees compared to Wednesday. Later on on Thursday, we do
01:34have some more showers for a time, but a lot of the showers clearing away and easing and
01:39we will have a lot of dry, clear weather as we go into Friday. Could be a bit of a fresh
01:43start again and do watch out for some mist and fog patches, particularly towards some
01:48western parts first thing on Friday morning. Then through Friday itself, it is going to
01:53be a largely fine day, high pressure building and dominating the story. Watch out for some
01:58showers could be quite frequent across parts of the northeast and some blustery winds possible
02:03here. Also, one or two isolated showers around in other places. But on the whole Friday,
02:08with that high pressure, it is going to be largely dry and we stick with that largely
02:13dry theme as we go into the weekend. But some showery rain starting to push its way
02:18in across southern parts as we go through Saturday. And worth bearing in mind, whilst
02:23there is some uncertainty about this, some of the showers could be heavy, possibly even
02:28thundery as they make their way a little bit further northwards as we go through Saturday
02:32itself. But away from the south, actually, for many, it is going to be a pretty fine
02:38day on Saturday. Lots of dry and sunny weather around and in the sunshine, feeling pretty
02:43warm. Now, there is a front waiting out in the west as we go through this weekend, and
02:49that is causing us some headaches. It's not likely to bring a huge amount of rain, but
02:55it will have an influence on our weather nonetheless. Now, there is some uncertainty as to what it's
03:00going to do and how quickly it's going to come across. And we can see that if we look
03:03at ECMWF data. So, here's the front as we go through Saturday, gradually making its
03:08way eastwards towards the UK as we go through this coming weekend. But if we go towards
03:14the end of Sunday and into Monday, you can see there's a fair amount of spread as to
03:18exactly how far that front is going to progress across the UK. Now, I mentioned that it's
03:25not necessarily going to bring a huge amount of rain. It will bring perhaps some wet weather
03:29towards northern and western parts as we go through Sunday into Monday. But perhaps the
03:34more pressing point about it will be the fact that depending how quickly it comes through,
03:39how much energy it has and how much oomph it has behind it, means how many showers we're
03:44going to see developing across other parts of the country, particularly as we go through
03:48Sunday into Monday. So, yes, on Saturday, we could see some thunderstorms perhaps in
03:52the south. But on Sunday, if this front takes a little bit longer to come through, we could
03:57see some more showers, fairly widespread showers, and these could continue into Monday and they
04:02could be heavy and thundery. But if instead the front comes through a little bit quicker,
04:06then it will stop those from developing. If we look at that in a different way and starting
04:10off looking at our rainfall accumulations as we go through Saturday, the 31st of August
04:16initially, and if we look at our high-res data from the Met Office and you can see it's
04:20highlighting there could be some hefty showers developing and they may cause some localised
04:24impacts. But on the whole, it shouldn't be too problematic. Worth bearing in mind, GFS,
04:28the American model, doesn't really have many showers. Its resolution isn't as high across
04:32the UK, so that somewhat makes sense. Meanwhile, ECMWF is highlighting some showers but doesn't
04:38have quite the same intensity. And our global model, again, the resolution isn't as high,
04:42so it doesn't capture the showery nature that we're expecting across the south on Saturday.
04:47But you can see across many parts, central northern areas, many models in agreement,
04:52it is looking largely dry. As we go through into Sunday, though, slightly different story.
04:58We get a bit more disagreement in what we could see happening. Notice ECMWF has that front coming
05:03through and whilst it does still have some showers developing across the UK, they don't
05:08look particularly intense because that front is going to start to make its way in. However,
05:13if we look at the high-res data from the Met Office, then there's perhaps a greater chance
05:17of seeing some more intense showers developing as we go through Sunday because it keeps that
05:22front a little bit further west, less likely to make its way in. If we then look ahead to Monday
05:28and it goes in a similar pattern in as much as, yes, the front with the Met Office data has started
05:34to come in from the west, but it hasn't made much progress. And so, by Monday, we could have some
05:39heavy thundery downpours developing across many parts of the UK, particularly towards central,
05:45eastern, southeastern parts. But again, if we compare that to ECMWF data, and that goes with
05:51the idea that the front will have made greater progress across the UK. So, the wettest weather
05:55instead will be towards the northwest of the UK. Meanwhile, across the bulk of England and Wales,
06:01really, yes, a few outbreaks of rain, perhaps a couple of showers, but not on the same scale as
06:06the Met Office model, either the global or high-res model are highlighting instead. So,
06:12just worth bearing in mind, there's some uncertainty about what can come this weekend.
06:15We may have some fairly widespread showers as we go through Sunday and into Monday developing
06:21across parts of England and Wales. Or instead, the front will come in a bit quicker and that
06:26will bring more wet weather to northern and western areas. And in fact, it'll be a little
06:30bit drier across more central parts. So, a bit of uncertainty as to what we're going to get
06:35in terms of rainfall amount. But what can we expect temperature-wise? So, I already said
06:39it is turning a bit fresher than we have at the moment as we go through into Thursday. But in
06:45fact, if we look at our temperature anomaly charts as we go through this weekend, and
06:51worth bearing in mind, even the end of August, start of September, if you get any sunshine,
06:55it is going to feel pretty warm. And there will be some relatively warm conditions across some
07:04parts of western UK as we go through Saturday, but just near normal for the time of year.
07:09By Sunday and even into Monday, there's actually likely to be quite a bit of cloud around. But
07:15even despite the cloud, we could have some relatively high temperatures. For some,
07:19temperatures in the south will be several degrees above average. Worth bearing in mind,
07:23these are comparing seasonal average. So, this would be for the start of September,
07:27whereas this is for the end of August. Similarly, worth bearing in mind as we go through the end of
07:32this week, we do have some chilly nights to come with that high pressure building as we go into
07:35Friday. Calm conditions, clear skies, perfect ingredients for temperatures to drop a little
07:40bit lower. But I think that's going to become less of a thing as we go into the beginning of
07:44autumn. But what happens thereafter? And although there's a fair amount of uncertainty as to the
07:50detail as to what we can expect through this coming weekend and the start of next week,
07:55after that, things get a little bit more confident to some extent. Here is the most likely regime for
08:03next Tuesday from ECMWF. Now, this has a slightly greater than 50% chance at the moment, and it goes
08:09with high pressure out towards the west, generally dominating our weather. Because of the position,
08:14it would still allow for some showery rain to affect some southeastern parts perhaps.
08:18But generally, we have our fine weather coming in from the west. Now, remember,
08:22winds go around high pressure in a clockwise direction. And so, it's not a particularly warm
08:27direction that we'd be getting our winds from. But nonetheless, generally, a more settled theme for
08:32much of the U.K. Worth bearing in mind, the second most likely, which has around a 33% chance, it
08:38says 35%, but I think it was 33% chance of likelihood for the same day is very, very similar.
08:45So, pretty likely that this is going to happen. The only thing we do have to bear in mind is the
08:50next most likely, which only has around a 10% likelihood. But instead, this high pressure
08:55hasn't pushed quite far enough eastwards. And instead, we have a lot of unsettled weather,
09:01relatively deep area of low pressure, unseasonable weather, really lots of rain to start
09:07for early September. And so, it's not expected, but it's definitely not out of the question that
09:13we could have a very wet day instead on Tuesday. I think it's much more likely that this high is
09:17dominant. And so, it is going to be a largely fine picture. Now, if we jump ahead a few more days and
09:23go to Thursday and now looking at the most likely and generally, the agreement really by the middle
09:29to end of next week is for this high pressure to have edged a little bit further eastwards still.
09:34And so, likely to be more dominating our weather. And so, likely that it will be mostly dry,
09:41not totally dry. This could still allow for some showers to come in, depending on the position of
09:46it. We could get some showers around eastern coastal parts. And if that high is just a little
09:50bit further north, we may drag in a bit of an easterly across some southern parts of the UK.
09:55And so, that could allow for some showers to come in across parts of the south in particular at
10:01times. But on the whole, most likely, I think, higher pressure and with that then a generally dry
10:08weather as we go through much of next week. Let's look at our temperatures quickly. And here are
10:14meteorograms from ECMWF for our capital cities. And they all show generally the same thing. And
10:20as much as we do have some relatively warm weather at the moment, then temperatures drop down as we
10:25go through Thursday, then they're around average before picking up again early next week. Let's
10:29take London, for example. And you can see, like I showed you before, the maximum temperatures
10:34picking up as we go through to Sunday. So, even though Sunday could be quite cloudy, there could
10:39be quite a few showers around. It's actually looking pretty warm. And then temperatures,
10:43they do generally stay on the above average side. But there is a relatively large spread as we go
10:50through next week. And if you look beyond, really around average looks most likely. But there is the
10:56potential that it could be higher than or colder than average. So, no guarantee on that front. And
11:02it's a relatively similar story if we look at the other capital cities as well. General trend of
11:07something perhaps a bit warmer as we go through the end of the weekend. If we take Cardiff, for
11:11example, you can see that little jump as well. And then closer to average, maybe a slight bias to
11:17slightly warmer than average perhaps, but there is still a fair amount of spread. With the position
11:22of the high pressure that may become more dominant or is likely to become more dominant,
11:27I think it's fair to say it could keep with our winds coming in from the north-northwest,
11:31which isn't a particularly warm direction at all. And so, it's not surprising that we're
11:37unlikely to see any major real warmth or real heat. But with some decent fine weather around,
11:43I think many people after the summer we've had won't be overly complaining. Now, we will,
11:48of course, be keeping you fully up to date as we go through the next 10 days. So,
11:52make sure you never miss an update by subscribing to our YouTube channel. Bye.