11/09/2024– High pressure next week – Met Office weather forecast UK - video Dailymotion

Met Office

This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 11/09/2024. A cold arctic wind will be replaced with warmer westerlies over the weekend. Further wet weather will move into the north but as the week progresses high pressure from the south becomes more dominant bringing many a much drier and warmer week next week. Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Annie Shuttleworth.     You may also enjoy:  – Deep dive in-depth forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_ZGnhyYdlEpdYrjZ-Pmj2rt  – Podcasts exploring weather and climate https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_brL5mcfsqI4cu42ueHttv0  – Daily weather forecasts https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGVVqeJodR_Zew9xGAqYVtGjYHau-E2yL

Transcript

00:00Hello. The cold spell we're experiencing is actually going to be fairly short-lived as

00:04it is set to turn much milder as we head into the weekend and through next week as well.

00:09As we'll see, some shifts to our jet stream. At the moment, it's amplified up to the north

00:15and west of the UK, diving down to the colder side of the jet stream through the rest of

00:20this week. We've got quite active part of the jet stream as well. That's bringing a

00:23few showers. But as we head towards the weekend, we move on to the warmer side of the jet stream,

00:28the southern side of the jet stream, and high pressure will start to build in from

00:33the south and west. So that will turn things a little bit calmer and definitely warmer

00:38by the weekend. There is further wet weather, though, to come for some areas this weekend.

00:43And for the time being, it still will be quite cold. The reason why it's quite so cold at

00:48the moment is because we've got this Arctic air. You can see the deep blues on the map

00:53here showing how cold the air is. It's coming all the way down from the Arctic with quite

00:58a brisk breeze as well. So it's feeling much colder than it even is as well, particularly

01:02through the day and through Thursday. We'll have another cold wind as well. It won't be

01:07quite as brisk as on Wednesday. So a slightly warmer day for some of us, particularly across

01:11the southwest, where it's a little bit more sheltered from the north easterly wind. There's

01:16still a risk of some quite frequent showers across parts of Wales and particularly across

01:20north eastern coasts of England and Scotland as well. We could see a few further snow flurries

01:25across parts of the Cairngorms once again on Thursday and still feeling pretty cold.

01:30As that high pressure starts to build in Thursday evening into Friday, clear skies will develop

01:34quite widely. Thursday night or Friday morning is likely to be the coldest start so far this

01:40week and since the early spring as well. Showers, though, still clipping the far eastern coast

01:47of parts of England and we'll start to see some cloud building into parts of the west

01:51as well, the northwest. But as I said, a very cold start quite widely. I think many

01:56areas will see a grass frost on Friday morning. Rurally, we could be down as low as minus

02:01four degrees, not quite as cold across northern areas, not quite as cold as that across more

02:05southern areas, but still a risk of a grass and air frost. And so that does mean we will

02:10hold on to that slightly colder feel through Friday. But it is going to be a calmer and

02:15more sunnier a sunnier day on Friday. Plenty of sunshine lasting through a lot of the day,

02:19particularly across south and eastern areas, and it will warm up as the day goes on as

02:24well. Highs of around 17 degrees to end the working week across southeastern areas further

02:30north and west, though, where we do see the clouds thicken into the afternoon temperatures

02:34much closer to the mid teens and cloud will build through Friday evening and into Saturday

02:40as we do see the next area of low pressure push in for the weekend. That will probably

02:44bring some further windy weather to northern areas of Scotland, a spell of wet weather

02:48that then sinks southwards into central areas through Sunday. But high pressure will still

02:54likely hold on across more southern areas. Now, as this is a few days away, there is

02:59a little bit of uncertainty in exactly where this front will lie through Sunday. So it's

03:03likely to build in to northwestern areas through Saturday, bringing wet weather here. But by

03:07Sunday or the start of Sunday, you'll likely start to push into parts of central parts

03:13of the UK into Northern Ireland, northern England, parts of Scotland. But there is some

03:17uncertainty on that. And a way we can assess how uncertain that position of that front

03:21is by looking at what we call the spaghetti plots. You can see this is from the European

03:25model ECMWF. And here we have the UK. And you can see this is that cold and warm front,

03:32the wave moving into the Atlantic here. And you can see there is a bit of a spread where

03:36we see the more the brighter orange line. That's where the front on the deterministic

03:41run, which I just showed you, is lying. But you can see there's quite a big spread to

03:46the north and to the south of that. Definitely, we could see there are – you can get a much

03:51bigger spread than that. You can see if we look further down the line, there's a much

03:54bigger spread coming our way later on to the start of next week. But there is some uncertainty

03:59with the exact timings on the front. But as I said, through Saturday, we will see that

04:04wet weather spread into parts of northwestern Scotland at first, Northern Ireland, before

04:08it sinks southwards into more central and southern areas of England, of Scotland later

04:13on Saturday. But for England and Wales, it should be a dry and bright day through Saturday,

04:18warmer than Friday as well. Still potentially a slightly chillier start, but not quite as

04:23cold as Friday morning. And temperatures climbing up towards the 20s, so much warmer than it

04:28has been through much of this week. And then through Saturday evening, that wet weather

04:33will likely push into parts of northern England, north Wales. And that's where it will start

04:37to linger through much of Saturday night and into Sunday morning, as high pressure is still

04:42holding on across more southern areas. So that will likely bring another dry, fine and

04:46fairly warm day to southern areas of the UK, parts of south Wales, southern England through

04:51Sunday. To the north of this weather front, a fairly dry day, certainly a drier day on

04:56Sunday compared to Saturday for parts of Northern Ireland and much of Scotland, but fairly fresh

05:01as we're into slightly colder air to the north of this weather front. And for more central

05:05areas, a cloudier and damper day most likely. But as I said, there is some uncertainty with

05:09exactly how far this band across central areas will sit. So please keep up to date

05:14with the forecast through the next few days if you're in these areas. But these are the

05:17rainfall accumulations expected through the weekend. So you can see rainfall totals will

05:22build up across northwestern areas of Scotland. We could see up to 60 millimetres here over

05:26about 48 hours. And then as that rain band sinks into more central areas, we will still

05:31see some totals building up across parts of Cumbria, parts of Northern Ireland as well.

05:36But the rainfall across the southern proportion of the UK will be very much limited. And that

05:42is all thanks to the area of high pressure that will be with us all the way through the

05:46weekend across southern areas. And that will do its work to fizzle away this weather front.

05:51But the next weather front will do its best to push in from the west once again, moving

05:56up into northwestern areas, similar to how it will have done on Saturday too. But this

06:01time, the area of high pressure will push that weather front up far away from to the

06:06north and west of the UK to start next week as we are in for a bit of a change to our

06:10pressure pattern from around Tuesday or Wednesday onwards. Now, once again, there is some uncertainty

06:17with exactly how widespread this wet weather will be through Monday. And so we can look

06:22at the spaghetti plots once again. And this time, they look a little bit more messy. So

06:27here is the UK just here is the blue outline. And this line here, the green to orange line

06:33here, that's that warm front that we just had a look at. And you can see there's quite

06:37a big spread, in fact, actually, of where this weather, this warm front will lie through

06:42Monday morning. And so there is a chance that actually the weather front doesn't really

06:47make much progress through a lot of Monday. So Monday could be fairly fine for a lot of

06:52areas. However, there is a chance that weather front could push into northwestern areas,

06:56bringing that wet weather a little bit earlier. But across the south, we're not likely to

07:00see that weather front. So we will see high pressure continuing to dominate. And as I

07:05said, there is a bit of a change or a shift to our weather pattern to come next week as

07:09that high pressure is set to dominate through a lot of the week. So the high pressure that

07:13builds in from the south and west will then do its work to push away the low pressures

07:19and the weather fronts away to the north and west of the UK. And that's the most likely

07:22set up for Tuesday, the 17th of September next Tuesday. So high pressure dominating

07:28across the UK as southerly or easterly wind for many areas of the UK as well. So it will

07:34feel fairly pleasant in the daytime, a little bit fresher overnight, most likely. And as

07:40I said, high pressure is set to stay as we head through next week as well. You can see

07:45that by all the reds on this map. So red show high pressure patterns dominating. Blues show

07:51lower pressure patterns dominating. So at the moment on Wednesday, we've got low pressure

07:56dominating, bringing that more unsettled, that colder, showery weather. But high pressure

08:01is set to dominate throughout the next weekend, throughout the weekend and through much of

08:07next week as well. And you can see there's fairly high probabilities of that probability

08:11percentages into the 90s and 80s through a lot of next week. And that's been a similar

08:16trend we've seen in recent runs as well. There was a little bit of a time where we had a

08:21few runs coming in with lower pressure dominating through Sunday and Monday because we do still

08:26have low pressure to the north of the UK and the uncertainty I just went through with

08:29the position of the weather fronts. There's still a chance we could see some further wet

08:33weather, particularly across more northern areas through Sunday and Monday. However,

08:38as we look towards next week, it looks like high pressure is here to stay. But what sort

08:43of high pressure? Well, as we saw, high pressure builds in for more southern areas through

08:47this weekend. And this graph shows you the types of high pressure that are most likely

08:52to dominate. So the yellow show the Azores high. That's high pressure building in from

08:57the south and west. And then when we see these red, the brighter red colours here, that's

09:02a Scandinavian high. So high pressure centred to the east of the UK across Scandinavia.

09:09And then we've got these deeper reds as well, show more blocked pattern, high pressure slightly

09:13more centred across the UK itself. So we'll start to see the Azores high build in through

09:19this weekend. That brings the dry weather across more southern areas. And then that

09:23high pressure is set to push up to the north and east of the UK, the Scandinavian high,

09:29where it's most likely to stay through a lot of next week. And generally, we'll see a fairly

09:34blocked pattern. So very little in the way of change to come from midweek next week onwards

09:40for the next couple of weeks, in fact. So here's that high pressure centred over Scandinavia

09:45with high pressure centred over Scandinavia. That brings an easterly wind direction to

09:49many areas or a southerly wind direction to more western areas, which is still a fairly

09:54warm direction. If this was later on in the winter when the when mainland Europe has cooled

10:00down quite considerably, this would be a fairly cold direction, but it's still a warmish direction.

10:05So it is looking like it will stay warmer through next week and with high pressure dominating

10:11plenty of dry weather as well. Now, notice we do still have some weather fronts up to

10:15the north and west. And depending on the exact position of this high pressure, we could still

10:19see some of that wetter weather push into northwestern areas, at least to start this

10:24period from around Thursday, the 19th of September. But I think by next weekend it should remain

10:30most likely largely dry. And this is that you can see that with the precipitation anomalies

10:35here. This is from the European model ECMWF, and it shows the weekly mean anomalies. So

10:40from Monday next week all the way through to Monday in the following week. And you can

10:45see the oranges here show drier than average weather, most likely to see that dry weather

10:51across more western areas as that more easterly wind could bring some showers across some

10:56eastern areas through next week. But in general, everywhere is looking drier than average.

11:01And as I said, it's still a fairly warm direction as well. So this is a temperature anomaly

11:07for the whole week as well from the same European model. And it shows that temperatures

11:11are likely to be warmer than average through much of the week. Now, if we do pick up more

11:16of a northeasterly across northern areas, it could be fairly fresh. And for some areas

11:21you can see that there are some patches of blue on the map. And actually, if you look

11:24very closely across the far east coast of England and Scotland, this is a slightly paler

11:30red. And that's because we could see that onshore wind just bring slightly cooler conditions.

11:36So that's daytime temperatures feeling fairly warm. Most likely, these are the mean temperature.

11:40So that's the average between daytime and maximum. But I think it's the daytime temperatures

11:44which will feel fairly warm overnight. We could still see some cooler nights, potentially

11:48a frost here and there. We do see more shelter across northern areas, but nowhere near as

11:53widespread as we will see through the next couple of nights during the upcoming brief

11:59cool spell. So please keep up to date over the next few days with your weather. And you

12:03can do that by subscribing to our YouTube channel. See you again soon. Bye bye.

11/09/2024– High pressure next week – Met Office weather forecast UK

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