10 Day Trend 31/07/2024 – Changeable after the thunder
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 31/07/2024.
The heat and humidity in the south will bring a thundery Thursday before various systems push in from the west this weekend and next week.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
The heat and humidity in the south will bring a thundery Thursday before various systems push in from the west this weekend and next week.
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Alex Burkill.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello. I get it. Not everywhere has the heat and the high humidity. However, at the moment
00:06across southern parts, it is hot and we have some very humid air, which is making it pretty
00:11sticky. As well as that, with the humidity and the heat, we are seeing some thunderstorms
00:17developing initially across parts of the south as we go through the rest of Wednesday. But
00:22as we go overnight through Wednesday and into Thursday, we are going to see more widespread
00:28thunderstorms developing and these are likely to cause some impacts as we go through Thursday
00:32itself. As a result, we have issued a fairly large yellow warning, which covers much of
00:38England and into parts of Wales because we could see some impacts from the thunderstorms.
00:43Now, it's worth bearing in mind that by the very nature of thunderstorms, they are hit
00:48and miss in nature. And so even if you're in this warning area, there's no guarantee
00:53that you're going to see the impacts from the thunderstorms. You may not even catch
00:57a thundery downpour, but there is the potential for some impacts from the heavy torrential
01:02rain, from the large hail, from some frequent lightning strikes and even perhaps some blustery
01:08winds. So do be aware that there could be some impacts. Initially, as we start off on
01:13Thursday, there is going to be some fairly frequent widespread heavy thundery rain across
01:18parts of Wales and pushing eastwards into parts of England. But that should quite quickly
01:22clear away as we go through the morning. Then we will start to see some more showers
01:27developing as we go through the afternoon, these becoming a bit more confined to central
01:32eastern parts of England as we go through the second half of the day. As a result, this
01:36warning that we have out currently is likely to get tweaked. It's not out of the question
01:40that we need to escalate it in some places as well. If we see some torrential downpours
01:45more likely further north across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, it'll be a bit
01:48cloudy at times. There will be some showery bursts, but less likely to see those impactful
01:53heavy thunderstorms as we will see across parts of England and Wales. It is still going
01:58to be hot and humid, perhaps not quite as hot as on Tuesday and Wednesday. But nonetheless,
02:04across much of England and Wales, we're going to be in the mid to high 20s, maybe just about
02:08getting into the low 30s Celsius and further north across Scotland, Northern Ireland. It
02:13may actually be a little bit warmer than it has been through the last couple of days.
02:17More likely to get into the low 20s here. The showers will continue as we go through
02:23the end of the day on Thursday, particularly across central eastern parts of England. Here
02:27we are likely to see some significant rain. We could see 50 to 100 millimetres in just
02:32a few hours in parts of the southeast. So that's why we could see some impacts. Further
02:37showers overnight, but they should start to ease for a time, clearing away towards the
02:41east before perhaps a few more showers develop across eastern parts as we go through the
02:46early hours of Friday morning. It is again going to be quite a warm night, particularly
02:50across the south here. Temperatures only dropping to around 16 to 18 Celsius in some built up
02:56areas and further north across Scotland, Northern Ireland, where we've had some fresher, more
03:00comfortable nights here. It is also going to be quite warm and humid for some of us
03:04too. Now, the reason that we are going to see some showers across parts of the east
03:09as we go through Thursday night into Friday is because there is going to be a bit of a
03:13trough and that's going to be driving those showers. And then I will draw your attention
03:17to a system that is waiting to the northwest. I'll come on to that in a second. But back
03:22to this trough and it is going to actually push away towards the east as we go through
03:26Friday morning. And so we should start to see those showers across eastern parts first
03:31thing, clearing and dying out for a time before then more showers are likely to develop as
03:36we go through the afternoon. These are going to be a little bit less widespread in terms
03:41of the area. I think they're going to be largely confined down to the eastern side
03:44of the country and they could still be some heavy thundery ones, but less likely to be
03:49as intense or as frequent as the showers that we're going to see through Thursday. Now,
03:53back to that system towards the northwest. So many places having a decent enough start
03:57to the day on Friday, but turning quite quickly, cloudy, wetter and a bit windy as well across
04:04northwestern parts as that system makes its way in. Now, again, it is going to be quite
04:09hot. We still will cling on to some humid air across eastern parts and so temperatures
04:14mid to high 20s, possibly low 30s, probably not, probably high 20s highest. But towards
04:20the northwest, it is going to start to feel a little bit fresher and feeling it really
04:25under the front that's going to be making its way in. So why would those showers be
04:29developing across eastern parts as we go through Friday? Well, it's because we could get something
04:34called convergence. So here we have the humidity. You can see the yellow colours indicating
04:39it is still going to be hot and humid across parts of the east. But we have the fresher
04:43air coming in from the west and that will be clearing that humidity away as we go through
04:47Friday and into the weekend. But with that, then we could see some sea breeze developing.
04:53So the wind's coming in from the east and as the sea breeze hits the flow coming in
04:58from the west, we end up with a bit of convergence and that could lift things up. And so that
05:02could allow for some large clouds to form. And that then brings the risk of those heavy,
05:07possibly even thundery showers across eastern parts on Friday. But then our attention turns
05:13to this system towards the northwest that is approaching as we go through Friday itself.
05:18It is gradually going to make its way south and eastwards as we go through Friday night
05:23and into Saturday. But there is some uncertainty regarding the timing of this. If we look at
05:29this chart, the spaghetti plot showing Met Office data in different model runs and the
05:33green line is the deterministic models, the one I've just showed you earlier. And you
05:38can see this is actually the quickest in bringing the front across us compared to some of the
05:44other models, which are a bit slower bringing that front across. As a result, whilst I am
05:49expecting rain to make its way south eastwards as we go through into Saturday, there is some
05:54uncertainty about timings and actually it could come through a little bit later than
05:59these graphics behind me suggest. Nonetheless, a band of cloud and outbreaks of rain pushing
06:04its way southeastwards as we go through Saturday morning, perhaps taking a little while to
06:09push through. So do be aware across northern western parts of England and Wales, it may
06:13take a little bit longer for that dry, brighter to weather to develop as we go through Saturday.
06:18And then in the southeast, it's possible that we could see the cloudy wet weather lingering
06:22through a large chunk of the afternoon. What happens with this feature? Again, there is
06:27some uncertainty. It could just be cloudy with some rain at times. There is the potential
06:31we could get a waving feature on this, in which case we could see some heavy bursts
06:36of rain or possibly we could even see some hefty showers developing with this as well.
06:41So although it doesn't look particularly heavy, there is a chance that we could see some heavy
06:45rain affecting parts of the southeast and then behind it across parts of Scotland, Northern
06:49Ireland, perhaps there will be some showers feeding in and there's a chance there could
06:53be the odd rumble of thunder mixed in with those showers across western parts of Scotland
06:58as we go through Saturday. If it doesn't turn fresher for you on Friday, then it definitely
07:03will have by Saturday because that system, that front will have pushed through and that
07:08will have brought something a little bit more comfortable perhaps for many of us on Saturday.
07:12So temperatures by then will be ranging from mid to high teens in the north to low to mid
07:16twenties further south. So still warm enough if you do get any of that sunshine breaking
07:21out, but not as hot, not as humid as it has been. What happens then later on as we go
07:26through Saturday night and into Sunday is, well, that system does clear away towards
07:31the east and then most of the showers are actually going to die out. And that's because
07:35we're likely to get a bit of a ridge of high pressure. So that should calm our weather
07:39down for a time. It doesn't last particularly long. There's another system waiting to come
07:44in from the west that's going to bring more wet weather as we go through the latter part
07:48of the weekend. But because of this ridge of high pressure overnight, Saturday night
07:53into Sunday morning, I am expecting Sunday to start off a bit fresher than it has done
07:58through some recent mornings, more comfortable night for sleeping perhaps. And with that,
08:02a lot of fine weather to start the day before cloud and rain spills its way in, especially
08:07across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland, England and Wales actually likely to stay
08:12mostly dry. The northern parts of England, perhaps in northwest of Wales, seeing some
08:17rain pushing through. But yeah, a real northwest southeast split likely as we go through much
08:21of Sunday. Temperatures similar to Saturday, so low to mid 20s for many parts of England
08:27and Wales, mid to high teens for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but obviously feeling
08:31pretty unpleasant in the wet and windy weather. There could be some gales, particularly out
08:36towards the Hebrides. That system does then push its way gradually southeastwards as we
08:41go through the rest of Sunday and into Monday. But it's really across the northwest that
08:46we're likely to see the heaviest rain. By the time it makes its way towards southeastern
08:50parts, that rain is going to be breaking up. So just a wetter picture arriving later on
08:55Monday. As we look towards rainfall totals, we can expect and here are 48 hour rainfall
09:01totals for Sunday into Monday and Met Office data on the left, ECMWF in the middle and
09:08GFS on the right. And they're all in a relatively good agreement that it's across northwestern
09:12parts that we're going to see the heaviest rain, the highest rainfall totals. And towards
09:16the southeast, it's looking that bit drier. But the Met Office model wants it all just
09:20that little bit further southeast, a greater chance of seeing a bit more rain towards southern
09:25parts compared to both the American and European models. And also, it brings some of the heavier
09:31rain totals more towards the borders area and northwest England, whereas the European
09:36and American models want to keep it more for just western parts of Scotland. These kind
09:40of totals could cause some localised impacts, a bit of flooding, perhaps. However, I've
09:45talked a lot about the next few days, and this is the 10 day trend. So what's going
09:48to happen as we look further ahead? And this chart, in case you've not seen it before,
09:53the pie charts are showing the most likely pressure regime in terms of blues indicating
09:59a low pressure, more likely green is neutral and reds higher pressure. Now, we start with
10:03more older model runs at the bottom and more recent model runs at the top. And we going
10:07from left to right, we go further into the future. So it's a fairly unsettled picture
10:12as we go through the rest of this week and into the weekend. Low pressure largely in
10:16control, hence why it's generally blue. But if we look at older model runs, and they were
10:21hinting as we go towards the end of next week, higher pressure could become more likely.
10:27But in more recent model runs, that signal has reduced. And so whilst it's not out of
10:32the question, it's a fairly uncertain pattern that we can expect. It's not looking as likely
10:38that we're going to see high pressure and something more settled compared to how it
10:42looked a few days ago. We can look at that in a different way. And if we look at the
10:46most likely setups for specific days next week coming from ECMWF, and this is the picture
10:53that really I'm expecting through much of next week, low pressure somewhere towards
10:57the north-northwest of the UK. And it will be this driving various frontal systems across
11:03the UK from northwest to southeast. As a result, it's across north and western parts we're
11:08going to get the heaviest rain. Towards the southeast, it's likely to be that bit drier.
11:13As we go through next week, that pattern doesn't really change, sticking with low pressure
11:17somewhere towards the northwest of us. So still driving those systems across the UK.
11:23It is worth bearing in mind, although it's likely to be drier towards the southeast,
11:27there probably will be some frontal progression and there could be some waves in the fronts
11:31as they make their way across parts of southern UK. And so, there could still be some heavy
11:36rain at times. It's just looking drier than across more northwestern parts of the UK.
11:42The other thing to bear in mind is we could get – well, we're likely to see some sort
11:45of high pressure building over the Azores, but it's a relatively flat high. Nonetheless,
11:51it could just about ridge into parts of southern UK at times. And so, we could see some fairly
11:56decent weather across some southern parts of the UK through next week. But like I said,
12:01there will be some rain moving through as well.
12:04Another thing to look at will be our temperatures. So, here are temperature meteorograms from
12:08ECMWF with Edinburgh and London. Looking at the moment, temperatures are above average
12:13for the time of year and they drop down a little bit before picking up perhaps again
12:17for Edinburgh early next week. And then it gets closer to average as we go through the
12:21rest of next week. Not a huge amount of spread. So, I think around average in the north looks
12:25pretty likely. But for London and temperatures as we go through much of next week around
12:31or perhaps a touch above average, because there's likely to be some mostly dry weather,
12:36I suppose, across southeastern parts. But towards the end, as we go towards the end
12:40of next week, the following weekend and the beginning of the week after, some models,
12:45if you can notice this large spread in the possible maximum temperatures, some models
12:50are hinting that we could see the return of some hot air. And so, we could see temperatures
12:55returning to high 20s, possibly even low 30s. There is quite a large spread. Definitely
13:01no guarantee, but it's not out of the question that we may see something a bit more summery
13:05feeling returning as we go towards the end of this 10-day trend period. That's everything
13:10that I have time for today. I do hope you enjoyed it. I'll see you again soon. Bye-bye.