On "Forbes Newsroom," HarrisX Founder and CEO Dritan Nesho discussed new polling showing voters' feelings towards Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), former President Trump's choice of his 2024 running mate,
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Harris X CEO
00:08and founder Driton Esho. Driton, thanks so much for joining me. Thanks for having me again.
00:13The RNC kicked off this week and arguably the biggest news to come out of the convention
00:19is the fact that Donald Trump selected his running mate and that person is Senator J.D. Vance of
00:25Ohio. So first of all, Harris X and Forbes conducted a poll about the new nominee. What
00:31do voters think about J.D. Vance? Well, first, what you have to keep in mind about J.D. Vance
00:38is that even though he's been around for a few years as a senator and before that as
00:45a political figure after writing his very famous book, The Hillbilly Eulogy, he's still relatively
00:53unknown. And what I mean by that is that 21 percent of voters have not heard of him yet
00:59and the full 23 percent don't have an opinion. So roughly half of the whole electorate is waiting
01:06to be introduced properly to J.D. Vance. And that's the opportunity that he will have tonight
01:12once he has his speech in front of the Republican National Convention. But I would say that of those
01:20who do know him, roughly equal numbers view him favorably to unfavorably, 27 percent favorably,
01:2729 percent unfavorably. When you think of the top contenders for VP up until this week when it was
01:34announced, it was Marco Rubio, Tim Scott, amongst others. And these are lawmakers who have more of
01:42a national presence. Both of them have ran for president at some point in their career.
01:47The fact that J.D. Vance isn't as much of a household name, does that really hurt him in this?
01:53Well, he's got room to grow and he'll be built up in many different ways. What we know today
02:01is that when we ask, do you support the selection of J.D. Vance or oppose it, 40 percent support it,
02:1030 percent oppose it, and 30 percent are unsure of what to make of it just yet. But amongst
02:18Republicans, 70 percent support it. And when you ask Republicans, are you more or less likely to
02:24vote for Trump because of the selection of J.D. Vance as vice president, 41 percent say that they
02:31are more likely to vote for him, 4 percent say that they're less likely to vote for him, and about
02:3655 percent say that it will not impact their vote. And therein you get everything you need
02:42to know about vice presidential selections. The old quip is that a vice president doesn't help
02:50you, he can only hurt you. And I think that in this election with J.D. Vance, Trump is tipping
02:56the hat to his base and selecting someone that plays very well and very strong with the Republican
03:03base, despite his low name. So typically you're saying historically, VP selection can only hurt
03:11you. Do you think that that matters here right now? Do you think that could be true?
03:19So it's yet to be seen. Right. And as you can see, the Democratic Party and the Biden campaign
03:26has already started attacking J.D. Vance from the first moment of his announcement in order to shape
03:35those perceptions. And as they say in politics, you want to shape your opponent
03:40in the minds of the voter and in the minds of the public before they have the chance to do so
03:46themselves. Right now, as it stands for the whole electorate, you know, 21 percent say that they're
03:52more likely to vote for Trump because he selected Vance. 18 percent say that they're less likely to
03:58vote for Trump because of that. So it's by and large a wash within the margin of error. And 61
04:06percent, close to two thirds, say that it will not impact their vote, meaning that they're either
04:13voting because of Trump or Biden or some other driver, not the vice presidential nominee.
04:20As you said earlier, J.D. Vance just got into politics a few years ago. He was elected into
04:25Senate to serve for Ohio in 2022. He's also the author of Hillbilly Elegy, which came out in 2016.
04:33Why do voters think he was selected? That's a great question. If you ask Republicans,
04:39the number one issue or the number one reason that they believe J.D. Vance was selected by Trump
04:45is because he's a strong supporter of MAGA policies. And that is the strongest single
04:52reason that Republicans gave for J.D. Vance, followed closely by he will be loyal to Trump.
05:00So his loyalty is playing fairly strongly with the Republican base, as well as the fact that they see
05:07him as someone who's fully aligned with the set of policies that they'd like Trump to drive.
05:13When you look at independents, the picture is very similar as well. 29% of independents say that
05:21they see him as being loyal to Trump. 27% say that he's a strong supporter of MAGA policies.
05:27The rest are all over the place. And so these are the two factors that are playing strongest
05:33among the base, amongst the voters in the middle, and then certainly amongst the general electorate.
05:39They are the top two reasons. A big question, something that has hung in the air in this
05:45election so far is age. And J.D. Vance is 39 years old. So that contrasts with both Trump and Biden.
05:54Also, unlike Biden, who has been pretty much a lifelong politician, J.D. Vance just was elected
06:00two years ago. So do voters think that he has the experience? Great question. Similar to Barack
06:07Obama, if you remember, Obama had only been in the Senate for a couple of years before he was
06:13nominated to run for president by the Democratic Party. It doesn't seem to hurt J.D. Vance. 44%
06:21seem as being qualified to run for vice president or to run on the ticket. 26% say he's not qualified.
06:29About 30% are unsure. But again, because of his lower name ID, he has the opportunity to build up
06:36those credentials, right, to get to a point where a majority of voters seem as being qualified. And
06:43again, 70% or close to 70% of Republicans view him as being qualified. In a similar fashion,
06:49we ask how qualified do you think J.D. Vance would be if he has to step into the role of president
06:56and take over for Donald Trump? And the numbers are very similar. 42% said that he would be
07:01qualified amongst the general electorate. 27% amongst the general electorate said that he's
07:07not qualified, and the rest are somewhere in between. Roughly, you know, 3 in 10 voters
07:14are unsure. But again, Republicans have a lot of confidence in him, and two-thirds of
07:20Republicans say that if he had to step into the role of president, he would be qualified to do
07:25that role. This primary season has really shown the GOP as divided into two parties, more of a
07:33Nikki Haley establishment Republican, and then more of a Trump MAGA Republican. You're saying
07:39that J.D. Vance fits nicely into that Trump MAGA Republican mold. So given his age and given his
07:47policies, do voters view him as the heir apparent to Donald Trump? I think that that's yet to be
07:55seen, but certainly the selection of J.D. Vance plays to Trump's base. And J.D. Vance does very
08:02well with rural voters and especially with suburban voters. And obviously his background,
08:10he comes from a downscale white demographic and a background that he's wrote in his book. His
08:19childhood was quite challenging. So it's a tip of the hat for that core electorate,
08:27you know, lower educated white voters, downscale white voters in suburban areas,
08:33and in rural areas that may compose the core of Trump's voter base. And so in that regard,
08:42he's the closest thing to that voter that exists outside of Trump in the Republican Party,
08:48and it's a tip of the hat to those voters. I will also add one other thing. 80% of Republicans view
08:54J.D. Vance as an exciting pick, in part because he is young and in part because of his background.
09:02Also, 91% of Republicans and 58% of independents actually view him as being honest. And the
09:09honesty card, it's an important card, especially for voters who like anti-establishment figures
09:18and essentially view Washington as being in a gridlock and not able to produce actual solutions
09:26for them that matter to them in their day-to-day life. And that was a very interesting finding
09:31that came out in our poll. 56% of independents viewing J.D. Vance as honest and 91% of Republicans
09:38saying the same. When we're talking about vice presidential picks, obviously I'm going to look
09:44at the counterpart here, and that is Kamala Harris, current vice president. She has had,
09:50in this election cycle, similar or lower approval ratings than Joe Biden. How does this dovetail,
09:57these numbers when we're talking about J.D. Vance, how does this dovetail with
10:01voter sentiment toward Vice President Kamala Harris? Well, as we have shown in our polling
10:07consistently, Harris polls lower than Biden, both in terms of job approval and in terms of
10:14the horse race, especially in the head-to-head against Trump. However, she has near universal
10:20name identification, just like Biden and Trump have, by virtue of having been vice president
10:26for almost four years. J.D. Vance doesn't have that name ID, and as he shapes himself and as the
10:33Republican Party shapes him to be the vice presidential candidate and a potential heir
10:39apparent to Trump, there is a lot of opportunity to shape him in all the right way. Right now,
10:45voters are waiting to see, are waiting to hear about his biography, are waiting to hear about
10:52his positions, are waiting to hear about, you know, how J.D. Vance contributes to the ticket,
11:00and that's why they're largely split on questions like, does he care about people like me or not,
11:06right? In our poll, that specific question was 49% one way, 51% the other way,
11:13effectively a split. Of course, Republicans, they do think that he cares about people like them,
11:18and Trump voters say the same. Over 8 in 10 of Trump voters and over 8 in 10 of Republicans
11:25feel that way, but there's still room to grow, especially with independents,
11:30and that's where I would look for the numbers to start moving and the direction in which they move.
11:37Clearly, this poll indicates that J.D. Vance has a lot of room to grow,
11:42but any numbers in here, anything else stick out to you?
11:47Well, you know, to your question, do voters seem as similar to Trump or not,
11:5278% of the electorate does view J.D. Vance as being similar to Trump or having the potential
11:59to be very similar to Trump, and that's also 74% of Republicans. So again, there is a template
12:06for J.D. Vance, which is to be that heir apparent to Trump, whether he follows that template or
12:14whether he plays more into the fact that he's also seen as being a moderate Republican,
12:21more than he's seen as being, you know, very ensconced or historically ensconced with the
12:29MAGA movement. I think that that's an interesting tension, and that will be something interesting
12:35to see. Right now, 54% of voters say that J.D. Vance holds mainstream views rather than more
12:43extreme, more far-right views, and 78% of Republicans say the same, including also 60%
12:51of independents. So there's this interesting tension in the numbers between voters seeing
12:58him as an heir apparent to Trump and the closest thing to the personification of the MAGA policies
13:05that Trump has within the Republican Party. At the same time, he's also seen as a mainstream
13:11politician, and it'll be interesting to see which way those numbers evolve.
13:17Driton Pergusual, I appreciate all of the numbers.
13:20Thanks for coming on and breaking them down for us.
13:23Thank you very much.