New England Patriots Enter a Challenging New Era | Futures Bets
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00:00All right, with football season around the corner, and by around the corner, I mean that
00:06the Hall of Fame game, folks, is next week, literally next week.
00:10Like we are here, NFL preseason, training camps, of course, opening, college football
00:15starting soon.
00:16Adam Kaufman's all excited, I'm sure he is, with the NFL coming back, as we all are here
00:20at SportsCenter, let's be honest.
00:22But today, I don't know how excited we could get.
00:24I mean, the New England Patriots, one of the best teams in the NFL for decades, entering
00:29a new era of football.
00:31So Adam, somehow you got to get me excited for Patriots football this season, because
00:36it hasn't been all that exciting the last couple of years, that's for sure.
00:39Well, listen, I understand you're going to start your team-by-team training camp previews.
00:44You have to begin with the best, right?
00:46Which is very clearly the New England Patriots.
00:48Well, that was true for a couple decades, it felt like, as you noted.
00:53But yeah, this is a team with a preseason win total of four and a half.
00:56We probably have more people betting on them being the worst team in the NFL at whatever
01:03those odds.
01:04I was looking at it earlier, I think plus, yeah, plus 375 to have the fewest wins in
01:08the NFL.
01:09That being said, how about a little optimism to finish off people's mornings if you're
01:14on the East Coast like the Patriots?
01:16I think they're going over the four and a half.
01:18And I fully recognize that they are a team that, in terms of preseason lines, because
01:23we know that these do naturally evolve based around injuries and trends and whatever else
01:28over the course of the year.
01:29But preseason lines for every single game, the Patriots are underdogs for every single
01:35game.
01:36Bill Belichick is gone.
01:37You have the Gerard Mayo era starting off, the Alex Van Pelt offensive coordinator era
01:43beginning now.
01:44Drake May is the number three overall pick in the draft.
01:48He is on the roster, though does not project to see a whole lot of playing time with the
01:53veteran Jacoby Brissett there.
01:55So there are a number of questions geared around this team, what they're going to look
02:00like.
02:01I didn't even mention the fact that they have a really just a gauntlet of a schedule.
02:06Based on strength of schedule, it's one of the toughest in the NFL.
02:10They begin three of their first four on the road as well.
02:14So look, it doesn't project to be an easy season for New England.
02:18But I do think just sort of, and I'm not going to bore you with all the intricacies
02:21of this stuff, but going game by game, looking at the schedule, figuring that the defense
02:26is going to once again be rock solid.
02:28The offense is going to find its way over the course of the year.
02:32And I think there are a couple of potential surprise spots in there.
02:35I think this is a team that is very capable of winning five or six games, not being a
02:39playoff team, but winning five or six games and going over that four and a half.
02:44Yeah, and again, it's one of the lowest totals in the NFL going into the season.
02:48And so generally, those things are very volatile.
02:51They could easily go over, easily go under, just depending on how the season goes.
02:55Bottom and the top is always that way in all sports with season win totals.
02:59So Bill Belichick is not there anymore, as you mentioned, because essentially of the
03:03drafting.
03:04I mean, let's be real.
03:05I mean, that's the reason.
03:06There's not a lot of young players outside of some of the defensive players that are
03:09there.
03:11In terms of getting over the total, there's going to have to be some of these additions
03:14that we're going to look at.
03:15They're going to have to play a little bit above their heads.
03:18As you mentioned, minus 150 is the over on the four and a half wins.
03:21The players they brought in aren't really needle movers, Adam, but they could potentially
03:26be players that play better than their contracts because there's not a lot of money shelled
03:31out this off season to Jacoby Brissett or Antonio Gibson, who's underachieved for several
03:36years.
03:37Adam Osborne, when he played for Minnesota, was a good player, but he didn't get a ton
03:41of playing time.
03:42Austin Hooper on the back nine of his career.
03:45And then they added an offensive tackle, a linebacker as well.
03:48You can educate me as to whether or not those move the needle at all.
03:51So what the Patriots are trying to do, Adam, here, spend a little and hope to get a little
03:56bit more out of what they spent.
03:58And if that works, trade those guys halfway through the season for something else, for
04:03more draft capital.
04:04Does that sound right?
04:06Well, are you telling me that there isn't a backorder for Austin Hooper jerseys at the
04:11Patriots Pro Shop right now?
04:13It's true.
04:14Obviously, they are talent deficient and that a lot of people were thinking, hey, maybe
04:18that would change with Bill Belichick gone.
04:20In reality, all they really did this offseason is resign some of the better players under
04:26Belichick and didn't really bring in any incredibly new and interesting guys like the graphics
04:31showed.
04:32And as I mentioned before, Jacoby Perced, sure, he's their new starting quarterback
04:36or at least projects to be to open the season.
04:38He's a former Belichick guy.
04:39The Patriots drafted him.
04:41So really, it's then Osborne and Hooper and Gibson.
04:45Gibson slides in, you know, kind of replacing Ezekiel Elliott, who was here for one year,
04:50was pretty good, actually, but goes back to Dallas.
04:53But still, it's the Romandre Stevenson show as far as the backfield goes.
04:57And I think that's where, at least from a betting perspective, a lot of the attention
05:00should go is on Stevenson.
05:02They paid him, which is you want to look for one big change between the Mayo and Elliott
05:07Wolf era.
05:08He is the de facto general manager of this team versus Belichick when he was running.
05:13Everything is one.
05:15They weren't handing out huge contracts to begin with, but they sure as hell weren't
05:17paying running backs.
05:19And Romandre Stevenson gets a big deal.
05:22And you know, some of the numbers are still very much within reach, like one of the futures.
05:25And I don't love to bet futures, but one of the futures that I bet for this team was Romandre
05:29Stevenson over four and a half rushing touchdowns.
05:33You know, even when he has been injured in the past, typically he has gotten to five.
05:37And so I think that is a number that Alex Van Pelt and company, they're really going
05:43to lean on Stevenson.
05:44That was his M.O. in Cleveland.
05:46You know, granted, he had different types of weapons there with Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb,
05:50but that was a team that was very much run first under Van Pelt.
05:54And I think this team is going to be pretty similar as far as the receiving game goes.
05:58Yeah.
05:59I mean, they tried based on reports to deal for Brandon Ayuk, and maybe that is not dead.
06:03That was back around the draft.
06:05We know he wants out of San Francisco.
06:07Maybe they'll kick the can down that road again.
06:09I hope they do, because they need a bona fide number one receiver.
06:12But you look at it, it's not K.J. Osborne, at least it probably shouldn't be.
06:16Pop Douglas returns.
06:17He was their leader last year with very modest numbers.
06:20Don't get me wrong, but he's a guy that they're going to be counting on.
06:24A couple of the rookies, Jalen Polk and Javon Baker, guys that they took relatively early
06:29in the draft, they're going to get their opportunities as well.
06:33And from there, like Juju Smith-Schuster shouldn't even be on this roster.
06:36Devontae Parker was, you know, left and has since retired anyway.
06:41They do not have a lot of weapons.
06:43It's going to be the defense carrying this team, which is why they were in so many low-scoring
06:47tight games last year to begin with, and then hoping the offense can just do enough to win
06:52some games.
06:53Yeah, and basically, they got the memo where you saw that graphic, all offensive players
06:58drafted in the first handful of rounds for the Patriots, hopeful for them in two years,
07:03the Patriots can jump out of four and a half wins, maybe up to seven, eight, something
07:06like that.
07:07Adam, thanks again for weighing in on all the Patriots information.
07:09We'll talk soon.
07:10My pleasure.