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00:00Thursday Night Football kicks off week number three of this 2024 NFL regular
00:05season. For the prop perspective for TNF, it's Sports Grid's Tom Vecchio, live
00:09right here on this Thursday morning on the Early Line. Vecchio, as always, we
00:14appreciate the time. A busy day on the Spiz Grizz Network for you getting ready
00:18for a new week in the National Football League. We appreciate you being here to
00:22start off your Thursday on this TEL. Yeah, thanks for having me. I am ready to
00:27get rolling. We have what I am anticipating to be a classic Thursday
00:32night game, Thursday Night Football game tonight. Probably not a whole lot of
00:35scoring, but there are still some very interesting angles we can attack. And
00:39dare I say this game starts off punt-punt, little same game parlay up at
00:43plus 246. Oh, I love that. I like it coming out with a tire. Yeah, I'm gonna go bet that in a
00:50second when we take off the three box here. But Vecchio, I love that look and
00:55you mentioned how we might see a limited amount of scoring. 38 and a half is the
00:59total. Sub 40 for a matchup that also features a six and a half point spread
01:04in favor of New York. Vecchio, from just the handicapping, correlating the number
01:09perspective, how difficult is it for the Jets to cover as a near touchdown
01:13favorite at home when there's only expected to be about 38, 39 points? Yeah,
01:19that's the difficult thing that we kind of have to like key in on. It's like if
01:23they're expected to cover this spread, that means they're probably scoring a
01:26decent amount of points, but we're probably not expecting a decent amount
01:28of points for this game overall. And, and frankly, I think the Patriots are the
01:32right side in this. And, you know, I spoke to Kevin Walsh the other day. He
01:36said that the Pats might be one of the best ATS spread teams this year. And I
01:40think that's what they want to do. They want to kind of like muck it up. They
01:43want like to drag teams down and force them to play their style of game, which
01:47is not a wide open game. They're going to rely on defense and punts and running
01:52the ball. And that's what we're going to see tonight. So I think the Jets win.
01:55I am very, very hesitant to say that they will cover. Yeah, we'll see what
01:59that game tempo ends up to be. But if we are looking at some of the quarterback
02:02props and it's certainly with a 38 and a half, they're not going to be crazy
02:05high. You take a look at Aaron Rodgers at 2 15 and a half to Kobe percent at
02:091 63 and a half. What are the expectations for you, Tom, from the
02:13quarterback position type in the props market? It is very, very modest. If you
02:18told me both of these quarterbacks hit the under or just barely touched the
02:22over on these props, I wouldn't be surprised at all. I think we are in for
02:26again a low scoring game. One of the quarterbacks probably Rodgers may hit
02:31the over on his touchdown prop, but that may simply come due to the fact that
02:35they gets the red zone and they pops a few winning. It's not gonna be like a
02:38300 yard passing game in three touchdowns. It's gonna be like that to
02:4210 game in two touchdowns. So I am very, very, uh, I'm tempering my
02:48expectations for everyone in this game outside of your Wilson, which will get
02:51to in a few minutes. Yeah, I think if you're looking at the passing attack
02:55for New York, that might be the way to try to correlate it. We did see that
02:59Gino Smith threw for 327 yards in week number two against New England. So
03:05Becky, if it's not a large aerial attack on this Thursday night in Met
03:09life, do we focus on the ground? Let's start with New England. We know that's
03:13been the offensive game plan. Make Jacoby Brousset play clean football,
03:18take the ball out of his hands and feed Ramond Ray Stevenson. Does that happen
03:21for a third straight week to start this year for the past? I think so. Like you
03:26like you said, like this is their game plan and this is gonna be their game
03:28plan every week. Even if they bring in Drake May, like this is still gonna be
03:33their game plan. Limit the quarterback exposure to limit his chances to make
03:38mistakes. They also don't have a very talented receiving core. Ramond Ray is
03:41the guy to trust. So I like him specifically over 16 and a half
03:44attempts tonight sitting at plus one on two. They were 57.6 rush play
03:47percentage at the fifth highest only that's good for 37 and a half attempts
03:51per game. He is 25 and 21 over the first two weeks. The line at 16 and a
03:56half, I think, seems low because it's working with the game script like
03:59they're underdogs. They probably shouldn't be in a spot to run the ball
04:01too often, but ultimately when they get the ball, they're going to be running
04:05it. So stick with Ramond Ray. He's super consistent over 16 and a half.
04:10There's also a prop for him to a game special for him to rest for 25 plus in
04:14both halves. Things that plus 1 20. I think that seems pretty sound like
04:17we're not looking for too much there.
04:20Let's see if we can find some fun here in the wide receiver tight end props.
04:23I do want to focus first off on the Patriots because you never see numbers
04:26this low. Look at the wide receiver position here tonight. K. J. Osborne,
04:3017 and a half Jalen Polk, 18 and a half to Mario Douglas, 26 and a half. Those
04:35are the wide receiving options tonight for the Patriots. Hunter Henry does
04:38have a 34 and a half. Is there any value in any market here at the wide
04:42receiver tight end position just from a Patriots perspective for you, Tom?
04:46Yeah, it would be with Hunter Henry over three and a half receptions. It's
04:50at plus 102. Like he had all those yards last week. That's great. But you
04:54know, even though I expect them to run the ball a lot, if they do fall behind,
04:58they're gonna have to pass it. And if the Jets bring that pressure, which
05:01they can be good at, it's gonna be Hunter Henry. He has a 6.2 a dot
05:04average at the target, so he's not getting super deep downfield. Jacobi
05:07percent could look to those easy passes. So over three and a half plus
05:1012 tweeting is probably the safest option. We're not expecting a massive
05:14amount of yards. It's just like, get the ball to him, trying to move the
05:16chains. Keep it simple.
05:19149 passing yards for Joe Kobe Brissett last week against Seattle. 109 of them
05:24went to Hunter Henry, who had eight grabs on 12 targets. Austin Hooper, the
05:30backup tight end was the leading receiver for New England week. Number
05:33one's upset in Cincinnati, the most receiving yards for a wide out
05:37specifically for New England this year. Taekwon Thornton week one against the
05:41Bengals. He had 27 yards. Brissett has not broken through 150 passing yards
05:47yet this season. Aaron Rodgers not more than 180. So, Tom, if we're looking at
05:52the New York Jets side of things, you mentioned Garrett Wilson. Where would
05:55you attack for those wide receivers for Dan Green?
05:58Uh, Garrett Wilson is getting his first touchdown of the year at home. First
06:03home game of the year. Plus 145 team high. 29.3% target share. His red zone
06:08shares at 33.3% second behind Lazard. It was tied. There was a I don't want
06:14station scoring team. It wasn't officially red zone target, but that's
06:17where I'm looking for him again. I'll say this time and time again. I'm of
06:21the belief why quarterback should keep their star wide receivers happy, and
06:25that's what we need with Rodgers and Wilson. So again, a modest amount of
06:28scoring overall, but it's probably gonna be coming from Garrett Wilson
06:31today. All right, let's take a look at this game and wrap it up here. Tom,
06:35your best props tonight on the market. What will they be here? Yeah, so I'm
06:38gonna be going with that Wilson TD. I also want to touch on the Rodgers under
06:4231.5 passing him sitting at minus 1 30. He has 21 30 over the first two weeks.
06:46And ultimately, when we're looking at this game script, if Rodgers has to
06:50throw 35 or 40 times, that means something went wrong for the Jets net
06:55ultimately means that hats are probably live on the money line. So when I'm
06:59trying to, like, work these things together, Wilson scores. Rodgers manages
07:03game. Well, get Braylon Allen grease all involved. They have a nice little bit
07:06of split, modest production overall, and like they keep things simple. Because
07:10again, if Rodgers has to throw for 300 yards, you might as well just be taking
07:14the pass on the money line. At that point, it's a really good point. Vecchio
07:18would go opposite the game plan not only for New York, but also New England. If
07:22the Patriots are going to keep this game close within that 6.5 point spread,
07:26the game script has been completely off of Aaron, who has not thrown the
07:30football more than 31 times in a game or more than 30 times in a game so far
07:34this year has to do so tonight. So let's look at these two teams and their
07:39season outlook overall. Of course, we know the expectation for the Jets snap
07:43a 13 season playoff strap for New England. The Patriots entered the year
07:49Tom with the lowest win total in the National Football League in only 4.5
07:53already up to 6.5 and they're 101 against the spread. Who have you learned
07:58more about so far through the first two weeks of this season?
08:02It's probably the Jets and it comes down to I spoke to Kevin about this on
08:07Tuesday and it comes down to Braylon Allen. I think he's a really
08:11interesting option because there's like an unknown factor. And what I said to
08:14Kevin was like Rodgers just may like Braylon Allen. And while he may not be
08:19like a player that plays on a high percentage of snaps, if he's out there,
08:23it may be the goal to get him the ball. And that takes away usage from Breeze
08:27Hall and Garrett Wilson and Lazard is a longer shot in some of these games. So
08:31if the Jets are looking to spread out their offense, that may not be exactly
08:35what we anticipate coming to the season. We expect to be a very, very high
08:38concentration for Wilson, Breeze Hall and then some of the other options. But
08:42Braylon Allen looks good and he could be thrown a wrench into things a little
08:44bit. Thank you. Quickly here. What's the last time you remember not only the
08:48lead running backs, but the backup running backs also having a rushing plus
08:52receiving yards number Antonio Gibson and Braylon Allen both have those props
08:57tonight. I mean, the closest comparison would be Gibbs in Montgomery in Detroit.
09:01Although Montgomery's on a big receiving back, they have like a good
09:04one, a one B kind of punch going there. It is very interesting to say the least
09:09more prop perspective for Thursday night football with Tom Vecchio across the
09:13sports grid network on this Thursday. Tom, as always, we appreciate the time
09:17best bets for TNF that we continue our deep dive and our breakdown into the
09:22start of week three of the 2024 NFL season. Thursday night football at Met
09:27Life in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets will play host to the New
09:31England Patriots. Two consecutive divisional duels on the short week
09:35Thursday night football games to kick off 2024 DRS. The Jets a 6.5 point
09:40favorite at home. The total 38 and a hook. How do you see these numbers as
09:46it comes to what the outcome of the game will be tonight on this Thursday
09:50from a side? I actually do lean towards the New England Patriots. Now granted,
09:53it's usually home team or no team for me on Thursdays, but sometimes these
09:56are a little bit different, particularly earlier in the season where it's not a
09:59long travel plan like Boston headed down to, you know, met life isn't that
10:02long. So it's not stuff like, oh, 3 to 4 hour plane flight that you're gonna
10:05have to take. So you lose basically a day of working out and get some stuff
10:09in. I do like the under a little bit better at 38 and a half. Now, having
10:12said that, am I gonna pull up tonight to the show back? Yeah, I can't wait. I
10:15bet the under and the Jets probably not more from a prop perspective for me.
10:18But if you're asking the opinion, I probably would take the points with the
10:21New England Patriots and also I would bet the under 38 and a half. Yeah, DRS.
10:26I think it's hard to fault that kind of correlated handicapping strategy. And
10:30again, we have seen underdogs have their day. The first two weeks of this
10:35year, underdogs of five points or more, not in one against the spread five
10:39outright victories. That includes what Atlanta did on Monday night. The
10:43Patriots part of a group that has been an underdog of six points or more. And
10:47in that group, they are a perfect eight and oh, against the spread. New
10:52England won outright as the largest underdog of week number one in
10:56Cincinnati. Underdogs have been covering at a very high clip to start
11:01this season. Will it continue here into week three on the very first game? As
11:07you try to correlate the numbers, though, from the handicapping
11:09perspective, just think about it realistically and logistically. If the
11:14game is only going to feature 38 points around that total 38 and a half or
11:18let's just say sub 40 to make it that even number of 40. How can the Jets
11:24cover as near a touchdown favorite? Now it's under a touchdown. They could win
11:2817 to 10. They could win 21 14. We could stay under that number, but you don't
11:34really have a ton to try to cover as a hefty favorite with a low total. And
11:40last year, Donnie, you heard Vecchio mention it in his conversations with
11:43Kevin. I think it's a very fair point to bring up based on where New England is
11:47and maybe even evaluated after two weeks. The Patriots entered this year
11:51with the lowest win total in the National Football League at only four
11:55and a half. They are one oh and one against the spread so far last year as
11:59an underdog 12 times just 47 and one A. T. S. But the way New England is playing
12:05to start this year, Jacoby Brissett's not gonna throw it often. They're going
12:08to feed Ramond Ray Stevenson and even Antonio Gibson on the ground. They're
12:13going to try to shorten games. They're going to establish the run. They're
12:16going to keep games closer just because of what the flow looks like. Yes, and
12:21you're right about that. It's a good point you bring up because sometimes
12:23we'll take a look at two teams that are high flying and what's always the
12:26moniker we use, Ben. No lead is safe. Even if you have 14 points, you gotta
12:30keep your foot down here and make sure you put this football game away. Well,
12:33in the second half, if a team is up 14 to 10, putting the football, like
12:36putting the team away just means like handing the football off and saying,
12:39like, Oh, you only have four minutes to go 80 yards. There's no way you could
12:42do that because you operate like a snail, which technically New England
12:45does. That's the opportunities that you want to look at tonight, where if you
12:48are the Jets, you don't feel the need. Like, let's just say, Ben again, you're
12:52up three points, right? Final drive of the game for you six minutes ago. You
12:56objected. You would love to score a touchdown. But what are you probably
12:58gonna do? Let's get to the red zone. Let's play comfortable. If we score
13:01touchdown, great. If not, let's make sure we get that field goal and force
13:04the New England Patriots to go the length of the field. So let's just say
13:07it's 16 to 10 at that point. What are the odds that if you only scored one
13:10touchdown right in that game that with two minutes to go, you're gonna be able
13:13to go 80 yards the length of the field, which you told me reset in those wide
13:16receivers. I don't think that's going to happen. So I just think from an
13:19aggressiveness point. Yes, the Jets want us. Of course they want to score
13:23points. They'd love to score 35 points. We have to understand. Hey, guys, we
13:26could win this game if we just get to 20 points, which means, you know, New
13:30England's probably not gonna get shut out and they'll be in the ballgame. But
13:32the question is gonna be, can you actually get that drive when you need
13:36it at the end of the game? Whether it's to stay from within double digits from
13:3910 to 7 points or score a touchdown late, even if it doesn't mean anything,
13:43you have the ability to move the football. I don't know if New England
13:45has the ability to do that. So I do think it's gonna be a closer game and
13:49the tempo. I just don't think it's going to be there tonight
13:52and the Patriots really haven't played from behind this year. They led early
13:56in Cincinnati, dictated the pace. It was back and forth, but they had an early
14:00lead in the opening half last week in their home debut against Seattle. They
14:04got to dictate the pace. So let's get to the props. Jacoby Broussette has not
14:07been tasked this year with having to air it out to throw for 2 52 75. In
14:12fact, he hasn't thrown for more than 150 so far this season. His passing
14:16yards prop tonight reflects that for Aaron Rodgers. His number is 2 12 and a
14:22hook, but he hasn't thrown for more than 180 so far this year. Just 30
14:27attempts at its most through two games, and that was last week in Tennessee.
14:32What do you expect the quarterback play to look like on this Thursday?
14:36Non explosive, and that's the terminology I'm going to use. Like
14:39Jacoby, 163 yards as a professional football player as a quarterback is
14:44ridiculous. You should. You should be approaching it like by halftime
14:47theoretically, not the entire game and also for a game that you're supposed
14:50to be losing. You would think that if he has, I don't know, 100 yards at the
14:53half, which isn't that great. He should easily hit that number because you
14:56have to be throwing in the fourth quarter. But let's just line those
14:59passing numbers up and forget about the actual yardage. Look at the
15:02touchdowns. One and a half. Let's just say the numbers were even right. Both
15:06of those bets at a plus 100. What would you rather take Aaron Rodgers to throw
15:10two or Jacoby preset to throw one? I'd actually still go with Aaron Rodgers.
15:14Even again, he could throw one less touchdown preset at the same plus 100
15:18price. I still don't trust that offense to move the football with those wide
15:22receivers. I just don't
15:24over one and a half for Aaron Rodgers is plus 1 20. He did throw two last
15:29week, each to a running back, Breeze Hall and Braylon Allen. As you look at
15:34some other props, the R. S. For Thursday night football. What other areas will
15:37you have pregame as you sweat it out on NFL football in game live game day
15:42throughout the game?
15:43It's a really tough one because I see the numbers on the running backs for
15:47both sides. The starters from Andre Stevenson, you're gonna put him in the
15:50mid sixties. What is their game plan? Keep it close. Run the football. You
15:54figure, Ben, he's gonna get close to 20 touchdowns, which I don't care how bad
15:57your offensive line is or how bad your defense is. If you're gonna give me,
16:00let's just say 18 carries. I better be getting 65 yards to catch that ticket,
16:05but also from the other side. I know it's really expensive. Like, Breeze
16:08Hall is a minus 1 70. He's gonna get the first looks in the red zone. He has
16:11the chance to catch a pass out of the backfield, but a minus 1 70 with a total
16:15of 38 and a half. It doesn't even compute in my mind. These numbers are
16:19wacky tonight. We have to take the afternoon to really analyze what makes
16:23sense tonight.
16:24Garrett Wilson has yet to find the end zone this year. Love that. He was looking
16:28plus 1 45, by the way, to get two punts to start the night for both teams. Plus
16:332 38 D. R. S. I'll miss you. Have a great weekend. Have a great time
16:37tonight and enjoy the money line for the early line up next.