Analisis Saham Pilihan: BBCA, JPFA, AALI, ESSA
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (24/07/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Saham Pilihan: BBCA, JPFA, AALI, ESSA".
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00:00I am still discussing with Mr. Raden Bagus Bima, the Founder of WarCorp Stocks.
00:05We have mentioned earlier that if we focus on the domestic market,
00:08we should first focus on the earnings season,
00:11which can be interesting for us to discuss and can be used.
00:14Because globally, there is not a single concern
00:18that is felt to be significant enough
00:21to color the dynamics of the domestic market.
00:24Or maybe you see there is a sentiment
00:27that can be a concern in this earnings season.
00:31Mr. Bima.
00:35Yes, in my opinion, at the time of the financial report,
00:40in the first semester, we still have a chance
00:44to get a fairly good upside.
00:47Because this is only the first semester.
00:49It means this.
00:50If we look at the financial energy operationally,
00:55it is quite good in this first semester.
00:57We can analyze more deeply
00:59how it is possible for investors
01:03to see how it will be in the third quarter.
01:07So even though we buy a stock
01:10whose current position in the financial report is good.
01:13However, the price of the stock is not too cheap,
01:16because it is already strong.
01:18But we need to see how the opportunity is
01:20until the third quarter comes.
01:22Or even until the second semester at the end of the year.
01:25If our estimates are even higher,
01:30we can take advantage of the current stock choice
01:37to see three months or even six months ahead.
01:40Because a positive financial report
01:44until the first semester
01:45will probably also give a positive result
01:48until the second semester.
01:49Especially for sectors that we see
01:51are still quite dominant or quite strong in our market.
01:55Maybe that can also be a concern.
01:57Okay, we can enter a stock that has been listed a lot,
02:00can take advantage of this earnings season
02:05and can also extend its term of investment.
02:08Moreover, we then know fundamentally
02:10from the previous financial report
02:12that the future performance will be very good.
02:16Then, how about the movement of commodities,
02:21when it becomes a sector
02:24that may be considered neutral first
02:28by the market players?
02:32Yes, at the moment, if we look at this stock,
02:37there are indeed several alternatives from investors.
02:42Because the commodity has been experiencing a correction
02:45in almost all commodities.
02:47Even timber also experienced a decrease
02:51quite a lot this week,
02:53making the price of TIMS shares since Monday
02:57the pressure is quite high.
02:58So indeed, the price of commodities
03:01or these commodity stocks
03:03for the time being,
03:05pay attention to other stocks first.
03:08Except there is one stock,
03:10there is one interesting commodity sector
03:12is actually from Batu Bara.
03:14If we look at the movement of Batu Bara,
03:17it's actually normal.
03:18Only the emitters in the Batu Bara sector
03:23get a lot of attention from investors
03:26because investors take advantage of the moment
03:29to advance the interim dividend,
03:31which usually also has a fairly high yield dividend.
03:35So after the release in the first semester,
03:38if we look at it, there are ADARO stocks,
03:40including UNTR, ITMG,
03:44these emitters have experienced quite a lot of strengthening.
03:48Although yesterday, on Tuesday,
03:50there was a correction,
03:51but on a large scale,
03:53investors switched from the commodity sector
03:56to other sectors.
03:57Except there is one sector,
03:58which is Batu Bara,
03:59which becomes the focus because it advances the interim dividend,
04:03even though there are still a few months ahead.
04:05Okay, that's some analysis
04:07related to interesting sectors.
04:10But now we will discuss some of the options
04:13that you recommended this morning.
04:17Among them, there is BBCA with support at Rp10,000,
04:20resistance at Rp10,500,
04:21recommended by JPFA,
04:25with support at Rp1,650,
04:27resistance at Rp1,750,
04:29recommended by AALI,
04:31Rp5,700 for support,
04:32Rp6,200 resistance,
04:34recommended by ESA,
04:36with support at Rp800,000,
04:38and resistance at Rp920,000.
04:41Okay, earlier you mentioned a little about BBCA,
04:44maybe you have additional analysis about BBCA?
04:50Yes, of course I recommend this for a short period of time.
04:54We take advantage of the moment
04:56because BBCA shares have a potential yield,
05:00financial reporting potential
05:03is higher than other book 4 banks.
05:07So, between BRI, Mandiri, BNI,
05:10BCA has the highest financial reporting potential,
05:14or even the only one that is double-digit,
05:16the potential is 11% financial reporting in this second quarter,
05:20compared to BRI which is only around 2%,
05:24then BNI around 5%.
05:26So, the choice of BCA,
05:28in my opinion,
05:29the possibility can be like
05:31the announcement of the release of the first quarter yesterday,
05:35so when it was announced,
05:37in the afternoon,
05:38tomorrow BBCA experienced an increase,
05:41or was able to record the highest level,
05:44up to 4%,
05:45so we can take advantage again,
05:47the moment of the first quarter
05:49to advance the release of the financial reporting,
05:52the estimation today.
05:53The last level at Rp10,175,000,
05:56according to the analysis yesterday,
05:57it means this is still in the buying area for BBCA, right?
06:01Yes.
06:02Every time there is a weakness,
06:03I think we can take advantage of it for buying.
06:05Okay, just briefly,
06:06for those who are interested in BBCA,
06:09the long term is still okay, right?
06:13Yes.
06:14For the long term,
06:15I think we can enter gradually,
06:17because we do see that for the long term,
06:19until the second semester,
06:22I think it still has a positive return for BBCA.
06:26Okay, from BBCA, we go to Java.
06:28What is the analysis like, Bimo?
06:31Java, as I mentioned earlier,
06:33has become one of the sectors
06:35that can be a concern for investors,
06:38because this is one of the emitters
06:40that has quite a large potential,
06:44even in the second quarter of this year.
06:48Even SPIN and Java,
06:50if we look at the accumulation of foreign investors,
06:54foreign investors are more diligent
06:56to be able to enter Java.
06:58In terms of trend, Java is also better than SPIN,
07:01even though they both have a fairly good market,
07:04but Java, from the point of view of foreign investors,
07:08then from the point of view of the stock price movement trend,
07:11I prefer to choose Java
07:13so that we can accumulate
07:15and we can take advantage of it
07:19until it releases the financial report.
07:21We can hold 2-3 months ahead,
07:24which in my opinion is still very good for Java.
07:26In terms of quarters,
07:27at least this is what was captured in quarter 1 of 2024,
07:30the income was recorded as 13.92 trillion rupiah.
07:34This experienced an increase of 18.36%
07:37compared to the same period last year.
07:40It means that the financial report is also good.
07:42Is this short too or not too long?
07:45Can it be recommended for Java, Bimo?
07:49Yes, in my opinion, we can reach the mid-range,
07:52because from the trend I see,
07:54this is only halfway up from the highest peak in 2021,
08:00which is at the highest price of Rp 2,270 in 2021.
08:05Now the price is still at Rp 1,600,
08:07so this is still in the middle for Java.
08:10So for investors who want to maintain Java
08:15until the end of the year, for example,
08:17with very good performance,
08:18I think it's very interesting
08:20and we can maintain it until the end of the year.
08:22Okay, for those who don't have it yet,
08:24a weakness for Java itself can be used
08:27to enter Java at a discounted price.
08:31With the support level,
08:32you saw what was interesting at Rp 1,650,
08:35but now at Rp 1,680,
08:37it is still in the buy area to enter Java.
08:42Yes, as long as it is above the stop-loss level,
08:43it can still be done.
08:45Okay, there are still two SAMs left.
08:47We will continue after this break.
08:49Mr. Bima and Mr. Mirsa will stay with us.
08:51We will be right back.
08:52Thank you for staying with us.
08:54Mr. Mirsa, before I continue my discussion
08:56with Mr. Raden Bagus Bima,
08:58the founder of Warcoff SAM,
08:59we will take a look at the movement
09:01for a while from the opening of session 1
09:03this morning at 9 o'clock,
09:05at 9.04 o'clock,
09:07ESG is at level 7,296.743,
09:10which is 0.27%.
09:12And the highest level is at level 7,314.112
09:16and the lowest is at level 7,284.096.
09:24Okay, and we will see
09:26the same as the top gainers
09:29so far.
09:31There are PTMP, PSAB, SMRA,
09:34HELI, PURI, AREA, GUNA,
09:36then AMMN, there is PART,
09:38and also for the top losers, there is BSBK,
09:40BREN, GOTO, TELCOM,
09:42ISEA, IOTF,
09:44GOLF, PNLF, and OKAS.
09:47Okay, I will continue the discussion with Mr. Bima.
09:50Mr. Bima, let's continue the discussion
09:52about the discussion earlier, SAM-SAM Pilihan,
09:54just discussed two,
09:55namely BBC and JPFA.
09:57Now we go to Ali,
09:58what does Mr. Bima's analysis look like?
10:00Yes, Mr. Bima.
10:07Yes, Mr. Bima.
10:12Yes, Mr. Wiki.
10:13Okay, please continue the discussion.
10:14Mr. Bima, we have discussed BBCA, JPFA,
10:18now we will discuss Ali,
10:19what do you think?
10:22Okay.
10:23Yes, for Ali, I see
10:25this is also one of the emitters
10:28whose position in this sector
10:30has just begun to experience
10:32a boost this month.
10:33So if we look at it technically,
10:35maybe the investor can see on the screen
10:37that the increase has just happened this month,
10:40although in terms of financial reports
10:42it does not seem to grow significantly,
10:45but we can see
10:46the current price position
10:48compared to the current job
10:50if we look at the first quarter yesterday,
10:53it is actually very positive.
10:55The stock price at the end of last year
10:59was at a level of around 7,000 rupiah.
11:01Now, or the lowest yesterday,
11:03it is almost close to the level of 5,000.
11:06It means there is a decrease of around 1,800,
11:09around 1,800 points in Ali stock
11:12when the kinergy did not experience a decrease.
11:15So actually the kinergy did not go down,
11:17the kinergy is the same as last year,
11:20but the stock price dropped
11:22around 1,800 points for Ali stock.
11:25So I see this is enough to give a chance,
11:28although not for a long term,
11:31but I see Ali has a chance
11:33to strengthen up to 6,200.
11:36So investors can benefit
11:39from Ali's purchase for the next 1-2 months
11:42for Ali at 6,200.
11:44In terms of kinergy or fundamentals,
11:46it did not experience a decrease,
11:48but what was corrected was the stock price.
11:50So what is the trigger, Bima?
11:53And in the future, what will be the trigger
11:56for Ali's performance
11:58so that this may be a more convincing thing
12:01for investors to enter Ali?
12:06Yes, I think we can consider several things.
12:09Other than the dividend,
12:11which probably still has a fairly good yield
12:14in Ali stock,
12:16we can see a great possibility
12:18that this third quarter
12:20will usually be the time
12:23that gives a bigger profit
12:26compared to the second quarter
12:28or in the first semester.
12:30So we can see the moment later
12:32in the third quarter
12:34when Ali usually has a higher return
12:37compared to the previous quarter.
12:39So my hope is this can be reflected
12:42in the movement of the stock price.
12:45It means that the movement of this stock price
12:48is discounted or below the financial kinergy
12:50so that later in the third quarter
12:52the expectations have begun to balance.
12:54The fundamentals are quite good
12:56and the stock price is also balanced.
12:58The expectations are like that.
13:00However, investors also need to pay attention
13:02to why Ali's stock price
13:04also experienced a correction
13:06when the fundamentals are just normal.
13:08There are other factors.
13:10We need to pay attention to the fact
13:13that the index of Ali in Astra
13:15or even in the Astra group
13:17is currently experiencing a decrease in the market
13:21so that we can also see the factors.
13:24If Ali is quite good,
13:27quite good,
13:28but we also pay attention to the factors
13:30from one group in the sector,
13:32in this Astra group.
13:34That may also be one of the factors
13:36that can cause Ali to experience a correction right now.
13:39Okay, the last level is 5,775.
13:42It's still an interesting level to enter.
13:45Lastly, there is ESA, Bima.
13:48Yes, ESA is also one of my favorites this year
13:53because apart from the financial kinergy
13:56which is still quite good,
13:58and also from the energy sector,
14:00compared to other stocks,
14:02ESA has quite good performance.
14:05Not only from the financial kinergy,
14:08even from the technical side,
14:10this year it is around 500,
14:13the lowest price,
14:15and now the price is 835.
14:18It can even touch what I targeted today at 920
14:24until the end of this month.
14:27So I hope investors can see
14:30there are two points of view here,
14:32from the technical side which is still positive,
14:34then also from the financial kinergy side which is still positive,
14:37and we also need to see in the energy sector,
14:40it turns out that we haven't seen everything interesting.
14:43So investors can't have many choices
14:46because here one of the interesting things is in ESA.
14:49So investors need to filter
14:52from the energy sector,
14:54one of the best is ESA.
14:55So for the time until the end of this month,
14:58at least I target
15:00ESA can record the highest level again this year
15:03at 920,
15:05with the stop-loss level at 800.
15:07Okay.
15:08One of the recommendations is BCA, Java,
15:10then there is also ESA,
15:11earlier there was Ali.
15:13Briefly about the movement in HSG
15:15at the opening of C1 today
15:17and your projections, Mr. Bima?
15:22Yes, in my opinion today
15:24we are still like the previous day,
15:27the condition is really
15:29this investor, White NC,
15:31is really waiting
15:33until there is really a sentiment
15:35that can have an impact.
15:36We can see later,
15:38this afternoon,
15:40in the second session,
15:41I think there will be
15:43a higher volatility
15:46compared to the opening session this morning.
15:49And I still have confidence
15:51if HSG today
15:52can't be in the positive area
15:54for the closing,
15:55tomorrow it is possible that HSG
15:57has a chance to move in the positive area
16:00for tomorrow.
16:01For today,
16:02maybe we can go to White NC first.
16:04Okay.
16:05Mr. Bima, thank you for the analysis
16:06that you have provided.
16:07Hopefully this will be a reference
16:08and will also be an investment
16:09for the market players today.
16:11Good luck to you always.
16:13See you, Mr. Bima.
16:16Thank you.
16:17Good morning, Mr. Wiki.
16:18Good morning.