"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Rabu (14/08/2024) dengan Tema Mengulik Strategi Investasi Kelas Aset Obligasi.
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00:00And for your guidance in investing during today's trade, we will deliver some economic agendas that will happen during today's trade, especially from the international.
00:16First, from the United States, the FONC Bostik, where investors until now are still waiting.
00:24Statements from the FED members are releasing some economic indicators from the United States to see the direction for the future of the FED.
00:34Will there be a potential to be scrapped in September?
00:37Then, still from the United States, Pemirisa, where the United States will release the weekly raw oil stock from the APEI, where the latest data shows that the OPEC has lowered the demand prospects in 2024.
00:50Which causes the global oil price in today's trade to experience a deep correction.
00:55The next agenda is information related to consumer inflation data for the United States in July.
01:04And this is indeed awaited, and this is also one of the main indicators for the FED to take the policy of the future relationship, both monthly and annually.
01:15And some consensus that has developed, where many predict that inflation will fall again.
01:21Likewise, the UK will announce annual inflation for the July period in 2024, Pemirisa.
01:28And then for the European Economic Agenda, they will also release their GDP quarterly and annually.
01:36Then from Europe, Pemirisa will do a 30-year loan from Germany, a portion of South Korea's unemployment rate in July.
01:43Meanwhile, we move on to the emittance agenda, where the TB emittance will be for today, the date of the DVS dividend.
01:52The dividend is TNI Interim, PTDana, Brata Luhur, TBK.
01:55Then there is also BSBK, and then there is ENAV, European Central Bank.
02:00Then also some other emittance information, and hopefully it can be one of the references for you.
02:07And let's just try to update how the latest data from the ASEAN exchange position this morning, Pemirisa.
02:15Where Nikkei experienced a strength at 0.46%, STI at 0.53%, KOSPI also strengthened at 0.77%, Hang Seng also strengthened at 0.36%.
02:26Where the position of the ASEAN exchange movement this morning follows from the global exchange, which tends to be positive, in the middle of strong expectations.
02:33The Fed will issue a statement in September.
02:36And hopefully the opening position in this morning's session for the ASEAN exchange can be followed by the opening position of the SMEs in the first session for today.
02:54And this morning, Pemirisa, we will not discuss the prospect of the SMEs.
02:59However, in today's trading session, we will discuss an interesting topic, namely the investment strategy of the obligatory asset class.
03:06And already present at the IDX Channel studio this morning, thank you to Mr. Mohamad Soegiarto, Head of Fixed Income Fund Manager, MNC Asset Management.
03:16We will go straight to him. Mr. Soegiarto, good morning. How are you, sir?
03:22Thank you, Mr. Soegiarto, for your time at IDX Channel.
03:25Our topic is quite interesting, sir, related to the obligation issue.
03:29We have entered this position in the second semester of 2024.
03:34And before we go into more detail, maybe from the fundamental factors and so on, we will try to review first.
03:40How do you see the development of the obligation investment in the first semester of 2024?
03:46For the development of the obligation investment in the first semester of 2024,
03:50as we can see, the GDPR index, the Government Bond Index, in terms of total returns,
03:56is still in the positive range, which is around 3.3 percent.
04:01In terms of total returns, it is around 4.7 percent.
04:07The interesting thing is that the GDPR index is supported more by the coupon from the obligation itself,
04:15which we know for ourselves that since last year, 2023,
04:21the obligation market is still affected by the volatility of the global issue,
04:26especially the increase in the FED ratio, which will be around 2022.
04:32So, in terms of pricing, it is still negative for the obligation.
04:39But overall, the GDPR index is still positive.
04:43Okay, actually, what is the connection, sir?
04:46When the FED is high in the first semester,
04:49globally, then the Bank of Indonesia also raised the FED,
04:53what is the impact on the obligation investment?
04:57Indeed, in the obligation market, when the FED is high,
05:00there is a condition where the obligation market becomes less attractive,
05:05because the FED will go up and the obligation price will go down.
05:09That's why there is a delay at the end of 2024, 2023,
05:18last year, where there was the first quarter,
05:23the obligation price went up,
05:27but in the second semester, there was a decrease
05:35because there was a concern that there was an increase in the yield in the US Treasury.
05:43So, when the yield increases, the obligation price will go down.
05:50Conversely, when there is an opportunity for the yield to go down,
05:54it becomes a positive opportunity that the obligation price can go up again.
06:02The position of the FED is in a significant increase,
06:09followed by the Bank of Indonesia.
06:13From the review in the first semester,
06:15does this affect the interest in the obligation investment?
06:20If we look at the interest of investors in SBN,
06:25the interest varies,
06:29but overall, the government can still sell SBN according to the target,
06:36although the incoming bid is relatively fluctuating,
06:40from the corporate bond,
06:46there are still quite a lot of investments from the corporate,
06:51especially for refinancing and to replace the obligations that have fallen in time.
06:56That's quite interesting for investors,
06:59where this obligation is as an underlying, especially in the interest rate,
07:03especially for major investors,
07:10how to increase the investment performance
07:13through the selection of corporate bond assets that are interesting in terms of yield,
07:18and the fundamentals are good.
07:21So, in the middle of the high interest rate,
07:25this does not affect the interest rate,
07:27or it does affect the interest rate, but the reduction is not too significant,
07:31compared to the previous low interest rate.
07:37In terms of interest, there are not many changes,
07:40but in terms of risk factors, they start,
07:43sometimes WITNC, depending on the market situation.
07:50This is interesting, Mr. Sugiyarato.
07:52We will discuss later,
07:54in the next segment, we will try to focus on
07:57the prospects in the second semester of 2024.
07:59From some of the information that has developed,
08:01the potential of Skubunga Development will be highlighted in September.
08:04The percentage, or the optimism of the market players is getting bigger.
08:08We will continue later, and we will return to the next segment.
08:13Still in Power Breakfast, and we are still in the market buzz segment,
08:15and we are still discussing with Mr. Mohamad Sugiyarato,
08:18who is the Head of Fixed Income Fund Manager at MSCI Asset Management.
08:22Mr. Sugiyarato, let's continue.
08:24It was interesting when in the first semester,
08:26you said that the enthusiasm of investors
08:28was still quite okay,
08:30when from Skubunga Global, including Bank Indonesia,
08:34the enthusiasm was quite significant.
08:37Now we will try to discuss,
08:39based on the prospects in the second semester of 2024,
08:42with the sentiment of the potential of Skubunga Development in September,
08:47and later will be followed by Bank Indonesia.
08:51But actually, from your own point of view,
08:54how optimistic is this Skubunga Development
08:56that will really happen in September?
08:59Okay, Mr. David.
09:01So, if we look at the latest FedWatch tool data,
09:05the probability that there will be a gap,
09:09how many basis points will there be?
09:12There, it is divided into 50% and 50%,
09:15the probability between 25 basis points and 50 basis points.
09:19That's the probability of Skubunga's gap being made by the Fed.
09:24Most likely, there will be a gap in Skubunga,
09:27but how big is it that we will still pay attention to,
09:32between 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
09:35Maybe later the Fed will also monitor the latest economic data,
09:39such as inflation data and so on,
09:41to determine how big Skubunga's gap is needed.
09:45Okay, the latest data, we also mentioned earlier,
09:48from the American Product Price Index,
09:51it seems that optimism will increase in today's trade,
09:55and then the consumer inflation data will be released.
09:59This is what is most anticipated.
10:02Now, when the position hits again,
10:05even though it has not yet reached the 2% target,
10:09this is heading to 2% for inflation,
10:11this will also give a fresh wind in the future, right?
10:14Yes, of course, with the delay in inflation,
10:16it will give a positive impact or additional boost to the Fed
10:19to fund Skubunga.
10:22However, we also need to pay attention to,
10:24in addition to inflation data, there is also labor data,
10:27which is quite important in America.
10:29Because what was very influential to the market last month,
10:33was when they released labor data,
10:36which showed a sharp increase.
10:38It means that the economy is slowing down.
10:41There is a slowdown.
10:42The value of recessionary pensions will open up wider.
10:45That's where the debate starts,
10:48can the pension be larger,
10:50can it be 50 basis like that.
10:52That's what we'll wait for later.
10:56Are you optimistic too,
10:57when the Fed funds Skubunga Acuan,
11:00will it be followed by the Indonesian Bank?
11:04If we look at the steps of the Indonesian Bank,
11:08the Indonesian Bank's mission is to maintain the stability of the exchange rate,
11:13so that the currency does not weaken.
11:16If we look at the historical spread between the Fed rate and the BI rate,
11:23it's usually around 3%, or even more.
11:28Now, the BI rate is 6.5%,
11:31and the Fed is 5.5%,
11:34so it's around 1%,
11:36and a little more like that.
11:38It means that the gap spread is very small between the BI and the Fed.
11:44When the Fed is at its peak,
11:46even though it's at 50 basis,
11:48it's still narrower than the historical range.
11:51The question is,
11:53will this trigger capital inflow,
11:58especially to the Indonesian market,
12:02with Skubunga and the Fed?
12:05The BI may also consider
12:07if they follow Skubunga,
12:09will this have an impact on the exchange rate?
12:12So the value factor will be the future consideration of the Indonesian Bank.
12:18Will it follow Skubunga by the Fed,
12:24or will it wait again,
12:27no matter how big the factor is,
12:29to the domestic financial market?
12:31Is the value of the rupiah still strong?
12:33If it's strong, it might be able to break Skubunga.
12:36Okay, so it doesn't have to follow Skubunga.
12:38The Fed also has its own considerations
12:41regarding the Skubunga policy.
12:43But on the other hand,
12:44when the Fed lowers the Skubunga rate,
12:46you said that the gap was quite narrow with the Indonesian Bank.
12:50When the BI defends,
12:52will it be affected again by foreign investors?
12:54Of course not.
12:55Of course they will look for a bigger gain
12:57in the position of the country with the most affordable Skubunga.
13:01Yes.
13:02Because if we pay attention,
13:04at the beginning of the year,
13:06the position of foreign investors is still outflow.
13:09Up to now, it's around 21 trillion.
13:11Although in the last few months,
13:14it's starting to come in again.
13:17But it's not too big yet,
13:21the impact on the market.
13:23So when the current SBN market
13:26is still holding at around 6.7% for 10 years,
13:31there is no other factor that can lower the rate like that.
13:39Next, from the domestic factor,
13:41there is also the SRBI factor.
13:43Foreign investors are also starting to enter the SRBI,
13:47where the majority is bigger than the SBN.
13:53This is a challenge for us
13:57to see how the SBN market can attract foreign investors.
14:02If it can go down,
14:04our obligation price will go up again like that.
14:07Okay, in the middle of the projection,
14:09Skubunga Acuan will go down at least not at the end of 2024.
14:14It was also said that this condition will benefit
14:17investing in such an obligation.
14:20How do you see the prospect
14:24of the potential of the obligation in the second semester in 2024
14:28with the potential of Skubunga's decline?
14:31Of course, with the indication of a decline,
14:34our yield has started to decline from 7% to 6.7%.
14:38Of course, if it's too high,
14:40our yield can probably go down again,
14:42at least to around 6.5%.
14:45But as I said earlier, there are other factors,
14:49such as a large number of foreign investors will return to the SBN market,
14:54which is a factor.
14:56A large number of foreign investors will return to the SBN market,
14:57which is a factor.
14:59In addition, how can the national banks
15:03return to the SBN market?
15:07Because they have been switching to the SRBI for a long time.
15:11Switching to?
15:14They are slightly out of the SBN market,
15:17but they are returning to the SRBI.
15:19Because for this position,
15:21the SBN risk profile is also quite high,
15:24or is it more interesting in the SRBI position?
15:27For the national bank, the SRBI is more interesting
15:29because it gives a larger yield.
15:31In the SBN, the 10-year tenor got 6.7%.
15:35Now in the SRBI, it's 7% to 7.3%
15:38for tenors below one year.
15:40It's interesting for the local banks.
15:46In the middle of the potential, Mr. Sugiarto,
15:50when investors are preparing to invest in the application,
15:55with various indicators that have been mentioned earlier,
15:58what will the strategy be like in the second semester of 2024?
16:02In my opinion, for those in the SBN or government bond,
16:08there is still a challenge,
16:10where the volatility is still quite high for the future,
16:14especially from global issues such as the United States.
16:18It will also affect the volatility of the yield in the SBN,
16:23until the end of next year.
16:25For the corporate bond,
16:28it will probably be more stable in the future.
16:32So for investors who are looking for stability,
16:36it will probably be more suitable for a more stable corporate bond.
16:43Mr. Sugiarto, it's getting interesting.
16:45We will continue later.
16:47We will be back in a moment.
16:52Thank you for joining us
16:55and still on the bus market,
16:57checking out Power Breakfast.
16:59Before we continue the discussion,
17:01I would like to update you on the opening of Indekargasam Kabungan
17:04in the first session this morning.
17:07Indekargasam Kabungan was opened in the first session this morning.
17:10In the first session this morning,
17:12Indekargasam Kabungan was opened flat at 7356.638.
17:16The good news is,
17:18a few minutes after the opening,
17:20Indekargasam Kabungan experienced significant growth.
17:24And again, in the last few days,
17:27Indekargasam Kabungan has returned to above 7400 level.
17:33Where is the current position?
17:35Indekargasam Kabungan's current position is at 7385.718,
17:39which is 0.35%.
17:41Indekargasam Kabungan's current position is at 7400.802,
17:47while Indekargasam Kabungan's current position is at 7372.891.
17:53Indekargasam Kabungan's continuous growth
17:56has made IHSG's year-to-date movement
18:00experience significant growth at 1.54%.
18:04In the last few weeks,
18:07Indekargasam Kabungan has experienced a negative movement.
18:11I will also provide an update on the trading,
18:14especially from the sectoral movement rotation.
18:17In the opening of the trading session on the first day,
18:22Indekargasam Kabungan opened several indices.
18:30This is also related to the movement of several stocks.
18:34WIKA continues to grow at 8.27%.
18:39GOTO continues to grow at 3.85%.
18:42SMBR continues to grow at 1.76%.
18:45Pryogo Pangestu continues to grow at 3.20%.
18:49VILEM continues to grow at 4.55%.
18:53PASCA is said to enter the MSCI Small Cap Index,
18:57which will occur in the near future.
19:01PTPP seems to have weakened at 1.8%.
19:05AMA Mineral is also under pressure.
19:07ADI is also weakening at 1.81%.
19:10And finally, there is ITMG Pemirsa.
19:12Today, it experienced a deep weakness.
19:15PASCA released their performance in the first quarter of 2024,
19:18where the position of Laba experienced a deep decline.
19:22That's the opening position update on the first session.
19:24Hopefully, it can be a reference for you,
19:27especially in dealing with trade today.
19:31We will continue our discussion with Mr. Muhammad Sugiarto,
19:36who is the Head of Fixed Income Fund Manager at MSCI State Management.
19:39Mr. Sugiarto, let's continue.
19:41As we have discussed,
19:43overall, the prospect of investment in the second semester
19:47will be more promising than the first semester.
19:50The catalyst was the prospect of the future of Sukubunga.
19:54But in the midst of some growing sentiments,
19:58Mr. Sugiarto, how do you see the interest of investors
20:04who are focused on investment in bonds
20:08when in the stock market,
20:10it is more tied to the younger generation,
20:12Gen Z or millennials?
20:14How about the position of investment in bonds?
20:18Actually, the position in bonds is quite interesting.
20:21It offers a more balanced investment
20:27with a higher risk.
20:32Unlike the stock market,
20:35where the volatility is high and the risk is higher.
20:39Actually, in terms of interest,
20:41investors are starting to increase in bonds.
20:47However, in terms of bonds,
20:49the relative size is higher compared to the stock market.
20:55In the stock market,
20:57with a smaller nominal,
20:59it is possible to make a transaction in the stock market.
21:03But in bonds, the nominal size can be higher.
21:11Even so, there is still an increase.
21:17Education and socialization are still very much needed?
21:22Of course, education and socialization still need to be done
21:26to the society, of course.
21:28How can they understand the risk factors
21:35and also the return factor
21:37which is of course not less interesting
21:39than other asset class instruments.
21:43Will the focus be more on retail investors?
21:48Actually, retail investors have a lot of potential
21:52to support the national economy.
21:57Of course, they can also support the SBN market.
22:02We can see that the interest is starting to increase.
22:07As we can see, retail investors in the SBN market are also increasing.
22:14Interesting, Mr. Sugiarto.
22:16But our time is limited.
22:18Hopefully, what we discussed here can be a reference
22:21for investment in bonds.
22:23It was very exciting to have a very good prospect
22:25in the second semester,
22:27the potential of the flower family.
22:29Then also from the strategic point of view,
22:31the risk profit, and again,
22:33the investment decision is still in the hands of the IDF channel.
22:35Thank you, Mr. Sugiarto.
22:37Thank you, Mr. David.