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00:00Super Bowl week in the big easy for the biggest sporting event each and every
00:04year the biggest game of every NFL season it is Super Bowl 59 that features
00:10Kevin Walsh's birds but the most unbiased man in sports media will break
00:14it down as is necessary in the Kansas City Chiefs as well
00:19Kev Casey a slight point-and-a-half favorite minus 126 on the money line as
00:25we are here on this Monday morning officially now in Super Bowl week total
00:29remains at 48 and a half you are boots on the ground in the big easy you will
00:35be hearing from so many different perspectives getting ready for Super
00:39Bowl 59 in these coming days but as you look at those numbers where do you
00:44expect these odds to move if at all by the time we get to Super Bowl Sunday now
00:49just six days out it's a great question I still would imagine that it would be
00:55more Kansas City bets as we get closer and closer to this game I think that the
01:01Chiefs pushed a lot of people over the edge with the win against Buffalo you
01:07know I heard people say you know it's between the Bills and the Ravens is the
01:10two best teams in football obviously that drives me completely insane the
01:14Eagles went to Baltimore beat that team beat him pretty handedly I don't think
01:18anybody watches the Eagles sometimes based on the conversations that we have
01:21but maybe neither here nor there I just expect there to still be a wealth of
01:28Kansas City money that that pours in because it's my homes the thing is and
01:32I'm gonna try and do this with as much respect as I can even some of the
01:36brightest minds see a Chiefs can go well hang out my homes it's not a breakdown but
01:41apparently it is because they just keep winning so maybe it is a breakdown but
01:45if that's the breakdown that you're getting from the top end of it well then
01:50everybody who's just gonna show up to the window come Super Bowl Sunday will
01:53go yeah the Chiefs win the game and then I imagine we can maybe get close to the
01:56minus to a money line of minus 134 minus 139 if you will but can you make the
02:05argument and I and I've been saying it all week have the wrong team is favored
02:09here is it not I mean call me crazy I can make the argument that the Eagles
02:15should be the favorites here on a neutral side no yeah I mean I won't call
02:20you crazy I'll call you somebody who's clearly watching some birds football we
02:24love to see that for you Joe quite frankly the Philadelphia Eagles have had
02:29people leading the conversations with hey what's wrong with the offense and
02:32they are 26 points away I think for tying the most points ever scored by a
02:40team
02:42oh that was fun that was sometimes it happens in New Orleans that's a Kansas
02:48City fan the Kansas City was yeah knocked on Kevin's hotel room and said
02:53get this guy Walsh off of here if you're going to consider Eagles are actually
02:59the favorites I believe now we're all friends here you might think what went
03:05wrong right internet could be the hotel now least be Joe
03:09Lisey's calling mid-segment told him I was doing this he knows so I mean he's
03:17not going to eat breakfast I mean he might be he might be and sausage please
03:25go ahead yeah it's lucidly I will say I will throw this out there to people
03:30because obviously I do think the Eagles are the best team in football I've been
03:33saying it for a long time I'll throw people some old-school spread math out
03:36there Kansas City was supposed to be a one and a half point home underdog to
03:41Baltimore Philadelphia went to Baltimore it's just a three and a half point dog
03:45again it's not a massive gap but that would pretty much suggest that Philly
03:49should be minus one here I think Joe's right and I think the reason that Kansas
03:53City is a favorite in this game is not see I don't I know the wrong team is
03:57favored but I don't blame them one bit because I think that if you put a plus
04:03sign next to Kansas City again you would have a big issue on your hands two of
04:08the five best scoring defenses Kev in the NFL two of five defenses allowing
04:13fewer than 20 points per game all year long and we have seen the total work its
04:17way down now to 48 and a half just how much scoring do you anticipate seeing in
04:23the big easy I have played under at 49 and a half I wasn't actually thinking it
04:30would hit down to 48 and a half so I'm glad I I did not that I think that's
04:34necessarily going to make all the difference in the world I would
04:37anticipate this number could tick back up I think this game is more so in the
04:42mid 40s Kansas City is coming off their season high points obviously Philadelphia
04:47is also coming off of their season high point season high points I think you
04:51have a bit of a self high spot when you try and evaluate this total for both
04:55football teams the Eagles the best defense all year long you want to say
04:59Patrick Mahomes maybe you should also say Steve Spagnuolo as one of the
05:03reasons the Chiefs continue on this dynastic run Kev go meet Lisey for
05:08breakfast enjoy this so Kevin Walsh had to go of course Joe Lisey and Donnie
05:24right side banging at his door to get to Caesars Superdome or wherever radio row
05:29is in New Orleans but it is Super Bowl week in the big easy plenty of sports
05:35grid coverage coming your way from New Orleans all week long we'll have it here
05:39on the early line as well videos interviews the PFT crew breaking things
05:45down ahead of the biggest game each and every NFL season and Joe this is a fun
05:50time because it is Super Bowl week last week we talked about the game from every
05:55single angle trying to bring you all of the necessary approaches to how the
06:00biggest game of a season is going to be constructed we're gonna do a lot of the
06:05same things this week but maybe we'll start to see some movement it is
06:09actually a game week we are going to get more practice reports how healthy are
06:13these two sides entering Super Bowl 59 so it is the start of Super Bowl week
06:20and here are the numbers once again Kansas City remains a point and a half
06:25favorite minus 126 at the money line it's been as low as minus 124 that's two
06:31pennies it's been as high as minus 130 in favor of Kansas City we have
06:36basically fluctuated in this nickel or dime sense on the money line for the
06:42last week total still forty eight and a half where it dropped to late last week
06:47as well Joe as you look at these numbers now in Super Bowl week and all of your
06:53friends start to hit you up Ranieri we need some bets for the biggest game man
06:56what do you like what are you thinking what do you know how are you trying to
07:00advise people to best bet Super Bowl 59 well you know it's I was making the case
07:08with Kevin there about I think maybe the wrong team is favored but he's got a
07:12point as well as that the books can't put a plus number next to the Chiefs it
07:18won't be there very long let's face it here the money will come rolling in on
07:22Kansas City if anybody sees Patrick Mullins and Andy Reid as a dog and let's
07:27not forget they're the champs until somebody beats them and forget about all
07:32they're going for history and nobody's ever won three in a row listen they're
07:37here they have an opportunity to make history here and cement themselves as
07:41one of the greatest franchises and one of the greatest runs in all of NFL
07:46history and that is saying something in this day and age however this has not
07:51been the most talented Chiefs team and while they do have an edge at
07:55quarterback because of Patrick my homes and even coaching with spags and Andy
08:01Reid they don't have the better offensive line they don't have the
08:04better defense and they don't have the better running game in fact they have no
08:08running game and usually what happens in games like this man is that the one who
08:13has more checks next to their name regarding running defense offensive line
08:19and that's usually the team Ben that ends up coming out on top and he's a one
08:24off situations here and that's why I think you know you can get a plus number
08:29right now in Philadelphia and I think that's where all the value lies right
08:33now minus 124 now on the fan dual sports book plus 106 on the other side for the
08:41Eagles and Joe when you really start to compare these two teams you go up and
08:46down the list coach quarterback running backs skill positions offensive line
08:51defensive line defense as a whole you really do make those check or a check
08:55marks those pro and con list to compare these two teams because you can see how
09:00tight the margin is to see who might hold those slight matchup advantages
09:05that could dictate the outcome I don't think anybody is predicting this game to
09:10be lopsided to decided by two touchdowns I think we all think that on either side
09:15it's going to be a one possession game it's going to probably be a field goal
09:20or a touchdown more than likely it comes down to the final few minutes of that
09:24fourth and final quarter of this NFL season now we'll get back to comparing
09:29these two teams in just a moment I do just want to mention the numbers because
09:34Joe at the end of championship Sunday when this line opened up for our Super
09:38Bowl 59 matchup second time in the last three years Chiefs and the Eagles it was
09:43minus 130 on the money line in around 57% of the bets or a 57% of the money
09:51excuse me on the spread at a point and a half we're backing Kansas City on the
09:55fan dual sports book around 54% of the bets on the spread we're backing Kansas
10:00City on the fan dual sports book those numbers right now have dropped not by 10
10:06percentage points but by a few 54% of the money on the spread backing the
10:12Chiefs only 51% of the bets so just know that because there might be the
10:18public sentiment it's still Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and they're looking
10:22for a third consecutive Super Bowl championship so you have to bet the
10:26Chiefs the public bets or at least some of the bets that we are seeing in the
10:31overall quantity on fan duel are now starting to skew at least in the last
10:35five to seven days on Philadelphia in those numbers Joe will be important to
10:40pay attention to on our lovely sponsor the fan dual sports book in this six
10:45day stretch until Super Bowl Sunday because if they start to back the Eagles
10:50in the Chiefs remain the favorites are those the odds makers telling us hey we
10:54just can't make Casey a dog once again for a Super Bowl or is that the odds
11:00maker telling us hey Kansas City is actually the right and correctly
11:05favored side despite the public starting to buy in to the birds all of these
11:09numbers in a game with this short of a margin have to be noted this week in
11:16the lead-up to Super Bowl 59 well listen I think it from a book perspective Ben
11:22my goal is to not have a ton of liability on one side or the other right
11:28yeah so this game for many aspects is a pick them in people's minds I don't
11:34think the line is going to move a whole lot one way or the other simply because
11:38I believe there's going to be enough to a action on this game there usually is
11:43unless this wood is some sort of big minus four minus five something over a
11:48field goal but the reality is it's the two best teams left standing in the NFL
11:53I think the what you see is what you get I don't think it'll ever get some I
11:58don't think enough Chiefs money will come in to force fandole to push it to
12:04creating a now a what plus eight for the Eagles and a teaser I don't think that's
12:10going to happen I think the biggest question mark in this game as far as the
12:15line movement is going to go is going to come on the total because we all know
12:18that the public loves overs and they will bet the over on Saturday and all
12:24morning Sunday the question is how much higher does it go because there's been
12:29nothing but under money in so far yeah and we'll talk about the total and dive
12:35into that in just a little bit in our next segment we'll focus on where that
12:39next big move for the odds for Super Bowl fifty nine comes when is it going
12:44to happen where does it happen much like Joe I think it's more about our over
12:48under in not necessarily the spread or the money line at least on fandole Joe I
12:54expect the numbers to look pretty similar to what they do a couple of
12:58cents here and there a point and a half is still where I expect that closing
13:02spread to be as we get to kick just six days from now around 6 30 p.m. Eastern
13:07time in New Orleans inside the Caesar Superdome but one of the great things
13:12Joe much the public chagrin that we are seeing the same Super Bowl matchup for a
13:16second time in three years as we have the Chiefs who are now playing in their
13:20fifth Super Bowl in the last seven seasons and the Eagles second time in a
13:24three-year window we have data points we have sample size we have comparison
13:30between these two in this similar stage and matchup Joe I think back in Super
13:36Bowl 57 to end out 2022 in Glendale I think it was pretty easy to say the
13:42Eagles were the more talented team but you still had Andy Reid and Patrick
13:46Mahomes do you feel about the same way here entering Super Bowl 59
13:52listen I the thing that worries me the most about the Chiefs is and Philadelphia
13:59knows that if you're gonna do this you better you need to step on them you need
14:05to make sure they can't come back here Ben you can this can't be a one-score
14:09game with three minutes left to go in a game and Mahomes has the ball you just
14:13can't so they are gonna have to have the game of their life where they're gonna
14:17put them down they're gonna make it so they can't come back that's how you win
14:22this game if you're a Philadelphian and everybody around the NFL for the last
14:27seven years that Mahomes has been the starter in KC has tried to figure out
14:31that blueprint how do we beat the Chiefs does it mean scoring or a defensive
14:37stifling effort a couple of cents here and there on the money line Kansas City
14:43has remained a point-and-a-half favorite on the spread for Super Bowl 59 the one
14:49big move if you want to call it that in the week before now Super Bowl week that
14:54we saw from an odds perspective was that total 49 and a half at open now 48 in a
15:02hook Joe you said it before the break pretty much all the money right now has
15:05been on the under where do you think this number closes six days from this
15:12very moment come Super Bowl Sunday yeah I think this number will rise then over
15:20the weekend beginning on Saturday once the public gets paid on Friday runs in a
15:25window and starts getting real excited on Saturday and then of course on Sunday
15:29but there is gonna come a point man and listen I can see this going to 49 and a
15:35half maybe 50 because I do believe there's gonna be a overwhelming amount
15:41of liability for the books on the over but I do also believe that the
15:48professionals the big money bets right now are sitting on the sideline because
15:51there's no reason Ben for them to get involved in this total right now because
15:56they know and we know it's only gonna go one way it's only gonna go up and if
16:01this is all about getting the best number if you're thinking about betting
16:04the under wait there is no rush for you to run to the window because the public
16:09is not gonna push this thing to 48 47 and a half it's only gonna go up come
16:15kickoff so the question is and I think there's gonna be a mad dash of
16:20professional money late on Sunday before kickoff trying to hammer that under so
16:26get it while you can if you're looking at the over right now now would probably
16:31be a good time to bet it because I think come Sunday kickoff time 5 o'clock this
16:38thing it could all the under money will start pouring in here but I do think it
16:42gets close to 50 before it's all said and done I would agree I think we get
16:46back to 49 and a half maybe even 50 50 and a hook in some spots depending on
16:53how much money in bets we see I think if you wanted to bet the under at 49 and a
16:59half when it opened good job on you might get another chance and now might
17:04be your time to bet the over so that's where the market is going to go Joe but
17:09we have two of the best defenses in the NFL Philadelphia is the best defense all
17:14year long around the National Football League led by a very bright mind in Vic
17:18Fangio Steve Spagnuolo is hoping for his fifth Super Bowl ring his fourth in
17:24Kansas City as the Chiefs DC and maybe that's kind of a lost part of this
17:30conversation we look at Andy Reid we look at Patrick Mahomes and Travis
17:34Kelsey in a casting crew that has been there on this dynastic run you know
17:39Spagnuolo's first year in KC 2019 when they first reached a Super Bowl so Joe
17:46when we look at this Chiefs team when we look at this Eagles team there's a lot
17:51of talent on the offensive side of the ball there is no doubt about it but you
17:55could argue that both of these teams are here playing in a Super Bowl led by
18:01their defenses so if the market ends up at 49 and a half or 50 or if we even
18:07stay at 48 and a hook what would you bet in terms of an over or an under for
18:13Super Bowl 59 I think it's gonna be somewhere in between then to be
18:20completely honest with you and I don't forget if you remember the last time
18:23these teams played remember they they exploded for points early in the game I
18:28think it was 38 first half points as you can see on there the first half line
18:3324 and a half there is no way I think we get 20 over 24 and a half points in the
18:39first half I think this is going to be a first one to 24 27 wins I think that's
18:47where we're going so I I'm thinking 45 to 47 points is where this is ultimately
18:53going to be somewhere in that ballpark there all of it leads me to unders
18:58early and unders late because as this game moves along and it's the question
19:05is can the Eagles defense handle that whatever you want to call it x-factor
19:11mojo can they handle it in the third and fourth quarter if they can then they're
19:17gonna milk that they're gonna outdo the Chiefs who love to milk the clock in the
19:22second half and make sure you don't have a chance to get back Philadelphia has
19:26been great at that all year long can they outdo what Kansas City loves to do
19:32to teams in the second half I think they can't five of our last six Super Bowls
19:37have hit the under of what the pregame total was the public probably squirms
19:42hearing such a thing the only over in the last six seasons was Super Bowl 57
19:48between the Eagles and the Chiefs and we saw a ton of points 38 35 73 combined
19:56points between the two teams over a total that closed around 51 51 and a
20:02hook to Joe's point we saw 38 points in the opening half the Eagles had a 10
20:07point lead 24 14 the Chiefs rallied and won a single score game as they often do
20:15Joe I don't think we see 70 plus points this time I'm not even sure we see 55
20:20plus points this time around between KC and Philadelphia but I don't think
20:25necessarily we also see 17 13 in a true defensive slugfest I do think both teams
20:32will approach their team totals and get close to it which means I don't think I
20:36have a great edge in betting the under we'll find other areas of course to bet
20:41throughout Super Bowl week let me ask you one final question in terms of the
20:46total our next segment together we'll compare those positions we'll talk about
20:50the individuals and look at the updated numbers in the player prop categories
20:54from the total perspective Joe can both teams win if the game trends to an over
21:00can both teams win if the game stays under or does that better suit in either
21:05of those two scenarios one of these two sides well we certainly know that both
21:13of these teams are capable of winning slugfest as well as low scoring affairs
21:19here and I and I would not shock me we know unlike a couple of years ago these
21:25are not the same offenses they are built differently for Philadelphia it's all
21:30about Saquon Barkley and a running game couple of years ago was all about the
21:34explosive passing game can't the interesting thing to me is Kansas City
21:38has no running game Ben zero nothing they can rely upon which means dink and
21:44dunk is coming here I think I don't know that it favors either way an under
21:50or an over I think it's who makes the fewest mistakes let's talk about those
21:55edges in each and every category around those depth charts next Super Bowl week
22:00live right here on the early line let's dive through the prop markets now see
22:05where those numbers have shifted if at all and compare those position groups
22:10and the individuals that will dictate the outcome come Super Bowl Sunday just
22:14six days away in New Orleans of course Joe we start at the quarterback position
22:20I think it's pretty fair to say the Chiefs have that discernible edge in the
22:24quarterback spot based on pedigree and perhaps even present performance between
22:29Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts but in Super Bowl 57 despite my homes and the
22:35Chiefs coming out on top it was hurts that outdueled my homes and had a
22:39generational and historic performance when you look at that QB comparison that
22:46we have for Super Bowl 59 where do you think those best bets might be or where
22:52the advantages could be in terms of that matchup what yeah we talked about it
22:57earlier bad we've got a couple of interesting things that play that
23:02correlate right number one if the if the Chiefs defense sells out to stop
23:10Saquon if that's their priority is to anybody but Saquon well then we're
23:16looking at a Jalen Hurts and passing game here that with AJ Brown and Devante
23:23Smith have to show up and they have to show out now we did see for the first
23:28couple of playoff games right 11 of 18 is what AJ Brown and Devante Smith were
23:3411 catches 18 attempts just a hundred yards combined different story though in
23:40that championship game right 10 of 12 for a buck 41 if you think Saquon is
23:48going to the focus of Kansas City defense well then Jalen Hurts has got to
23:52go over his passing yards wouldn't shock me if he goes over his rushing yards and
23:57the passing TVs also played to the over but if you think it's gonna be dad
24:02Saquon let's see if you can beat our front seven and they are going to lock
24:07down those wide receivers and force Saquon Barkley to try to beat him
24:12single-handedly well then a lot of those numbers Ben I'm not comfortable thinking
24:17Jalen Hurts is going over 210 and a half yards and conversely Patrick Mahone's
24:22only runs in the Super Bowl then that that's the bottom line his rushing prop
24:2729 and a half he's rushed for 44 in the last couple why because he saves it all
24:34up for this game he has no problem using his legs here which makes that rushing
24:40prop also extremely profitable to me at 29 and a half yards and that's the
24:46number of these two QB's that has actually moved it was 28 and a half at
24:50open early last week now up by a yard double-digit carries in 46 yards in
24:56multiple rushing touchdowns for Mahomes in that AFC championship game against
25:02Buffalo last two times these two teams played both quarterbacks utilizing their
25:07athleticism Mahomes 44 yards on the ground Hurts was Philly's leading rusher
25:1215 carries for 70 yards doesn't have to be the leading rusher now that is Saquon
25:18Barkley and we know what the odds expectation is for the best running back
25:23in the National Football League 21 and a half his attempts prop his rushing
25:29yards number slightly down from where it was last week 112 and a hook but still
25:33110 and a half Joe what do you think that Casey defensive mentality is going
25:39to be and can they actually slow down Saquon or at least hope to contain him I
25:46think they just hold I don't think they're they're going to sell out to
25:50stop him I think what they want is to make sure he's not busting off the 65
25:5670 75 yard untouched touchdown runs on basic handoffs and basic stretch plays I
26:03think that's what the Chiefs focus is going to be and don't forget the Chiefs
26:07have gone 18 straight games without allowing a 100 yard rusher so something
26:13has got to give in this game I don't know that they're gonna have to do
26:17anything more so that's how they're built you don't rush for a hundred
26:21yards against this team mostly because you're trailing and you don't have much
26:25of a choice but to throw the ball so I I don't know that they're gonna do
26:30anything extra outside of making sure he doesn't bust the big one for 70 75 80
26:36yard touchdowns to the house which is basically what he has done each and
26:40every game each and every week for Philadelphia 760 plus yard rushing
26:46touchdowns this year for Barkley the most we are a single season what keep in
26:53mind Sunday is Barkley's birthday just saying it is yeah and for what it's a
27:01better price than Jalen Hurts to win Super Bowl 59 MVP maybe to celebrate his
27:08b-day not only with a Lombardi but an MVP award as well Mahomes still remains
27:14the favorite our number three our third and final