Roda perekonomian Indonesia saat ini masih digerakkan oleh tingkat konsumsi masyarakat, dimana salah satunya berasal dari kelompok menengah. Adapun, kriteria kelompok menengah adalah memiliki pengeluaran dengan rentang 3,5 hingga 17 kali garis kemiskinan atau sekitar Rp2.040.262 hingga Rp9.909.844 per kapita per bulan.
Meski kelompok menengah dinilai sebagai penggerak perekonomian nasional, namun di tengah tekanan ekonomi yang berasal dari global maupun domestik seperti saat ini, kelompok ini justru rentan turun kelas. Hal ini tercermin dari rentang pengeluaran yang cenderung mendekati kelompok dibawahnya yaitu menuju kelas menengah. Bahkan, berpotensi bisa turun lebih dalam lagi yaitu kelompok rentan miskin.
Data Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat, jumlah kelompok menengah di Indonesia cenderung turun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Dimana pada tahun 2021, jumlah kelas menengah mencapai 53,83 juta orang, namun angka ini menurun menjadi 49,51 juta pada tahun 2022. Kemudian turun lagi menjadi 48,27 juta pada tahun 2023, dan menjadi 47,85 juta pada tahun 2024.
Meski kelompok menengah dinilai sebagai penggerak perekonomian nasional, namun di tengah tekanan ekonomi yang berasal dari global maupun domestik seperti saat ini, kelompok ini justru rentan turun kelas. Hal ini tercermin dari rentang pengeluaran yang cenderung mendekati kelompok dibawahnya yaitu menuju kelas menengah. Bahkan, berpotensi bisa turun lebih dalam lagi yaitu kelompok rentan miskin.
Data Badan Pusat Statistik mencatat, jumlah kelompok menengah di Indonesia cenderung turun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Dimana pada tahun 2021, jumlah kelas menengah mencapai 53,83 juta orang, namun angka ini menurun menjadi 49,51 juta pada tahun 2022. Kemudian turun lagi menjadi 48,27 juta pada tahun 2023, dan menjadi 47,85 juta pada tahun 2024.
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TVTranscript
00:00Indonesia's Economic Development
00:19Hello viewers, I'm Prasetya Wibowo from AIDA Action on Jakarta
00:24I'm here again in Market Review to discuss Indonesia's economic development
00:28And this time, we will discuss about the middle class in Indonesia
00:33who are now being ostracized by a lot of people
00:35because they are worried about the decline of the class
00:38We even know that their opinions are not clear
00:41but on one side, it's about life or some basic necessities
00:45that are often being neglected
00:47What is the impact? Let's start the Market Review
00:59The Center for Statistics notes that the number of middle class in Indonesia
01:03continues to decline in the last five years
01:05and is worried that it will go down a few more levels
01:08whereas the middle class is considered to be a national economic movement
01:12through consumption activities
01:18Indonesia's economic wheel is still being driven by the level of people's consumption
01:23where one of them comes from the middle class
01:26There is a criteria for the middle class
01:28which is having an output of 3.5 to 17 times the poverty line
01:33or around IDR 2,040,262 to IDR 9,909,844 per capita per month
01:44Although the middle class is considered to be a national economic movement
01:47but in the middle of the economic pressure that comes from global and domestic like now
01:52this group is actually the decline of the class
01:54This is reflected in the output gap that tends to approach the group below it
01:58which is towards the middle class
02:00It even has the potential to go down even deeper
02:02which is the poverty gap group
02:06The Center for Statistics notes that the number of middle class in Indonesia
02:09tends to decline in the last few years
02:12where in 2021, the number of middle class reached 53.83 million people
02:17but this number dropped to 49.51 million in 2022
02:22then it dropped again to 48.27 million in 2023
02:27and 47.85 million in 2024
02:32Meanwhile, the government has also launched various policies
02:35such as social protection programs, pre-employment cards, unemployment insurance,
02:40people's business credit or KUR,
02:42to subsidies and energy compensation
02:45In addition, to maintain the middle class's wealth
02:48The policy is also to maintain the decline of the middle class to the lower class
02:52and ensure an inclusive and sustainable meeting for all layers of society
02:57Jakarta, coverage team, IDX Channel
03:05Yes
03:05Next, we will present the criteria of the group in the community
03:09as you can see on the television screen
03:11how the upper class, middle class,
03:14the group towards the middle class
03:16and also the poverty line
03:19This is the poverty line for the upper class
03:2117 times the poverty line
03:23or on average above 9.9 million per capita per month
03:27for the upper class
03:28Then the middle class
03:293.5 to 17 times the poverty line
03:33This is the poverty line between 2 million to 9.9 million rupiah per capita per month
03:40Next, for the middle class
03:431.5 to 3.3 times the poverty line
03:48874.000 to 2.4 million rupiah per capita per month
03:54Meanwhile, for the lower class
03:571 to 1.5 times the poverty line
04:01or 582.000 to 874.000 rupiah per capita per month
04:07Okay, we will discuss this interesting topic
04:10together with our source
04:14Mrs. Henry Samarini
04:15She is a senior economist and also the founder of Core Indonesia
04:19Good morning, Mrs. Henry
04:22Good morning, Mas
04:23Yes, greetings, Ma'am
04:25Thank you, thank you
04:27Okay, thank you
04:29And it looks like you have joined Mr. Anggawira
04:32of the Young Entrepreneurs Association of Indonesia
04:35Good morning, Mr. Anggawira
04:37Good morning, Mr. Anggawira
04:39Good morning, thank you for your time
04:40Let's start
04:41We will discuss about the middle class in Indonesia
04:44which is becoming a trend
04:46Mrs. Henry, maybe you can review first
04:48How is the current condition of the national economy?
04:52How is the condition of the middle class in Indonesia?
04:55Please
04:56Yes, indeed the middle class
04:59has just been discussed in various occasions
05:04just recently
05:06However, the pressure on the middle class
05:11has been started since a few years ago
05:14If globally
05:17all countries are facing the pressure on the middle class
05:20it is true
05:22But they have just started it since COVID-19
05:26But if we look at Indonesia
05:29the pressure on the middle class
05:31has been started since we were facing
05:35premature deindustrialization
05:37Where does the middle class want to work?
05:40Where do they want to increase their income?
05:42Because the manufacturing industry
05:44has been experiencing delays
05:47and there are many communities
05:50that are not competitive
05:53and the middle class cannot do anything
05:56to increase their income
05:58Meanwhile, on the other hand
06:00the cost of living has been increasing
06:03Okay
06:04So, because of various reasons
06:07not only because of the recent food prices
06:10but if we compare it with the middle class in other countries
06:14the middle class is the heaviest
06:16because there is no transportation system
06:19that will reduce their export burden
06:22Yes, our transportation system is relatively expensive
06:25Then there is also housing
06:27Housing in Indonesia, including inflation, is relatively the highest
06:31Then there are also various obligations
06:35that will increase their export
06:39Meanwhile, as I said
06:42their income has not increased significantly
06:48So, by looking at it like this
06:51and the middle class's limitations
06:56we can imagine, for example, in Jakarta
06:59if it's only for the middle class
07:01the salary is 3.2 million rupiah
07:07that is already considered
07:09if the family is 4 people
07:11So, if they export
07:14about 800,000
07:174 people is 3.2 million
07:20that salary is not for the middle class
07:22Especially in the regions where the minimum wage is still 2 million
07:26or below
07:29How do we imagine
07:31they have to face a higher living cost
07:35while the choice to increase income
07:39whether they are workers
07:42or they are self-employed
07:44the space is getting narrower and narrower
07:47to be able to survive as a middle class
07:52Okay, that's it
07:54So, some of the challenges are quite heavy
07:56While others, maybe after the pandemic
07:59immediately move
08:00but Indonesia at the time of de-industrialization
08:02it started to happen
08:04Can it be said that the handling is too late?
08:07Or how, Mrs. Henry?
08:09Indeed, the response to the policy at the time of COVID
08:14Indonesia is considered successful
08:16because we then support the lower class
08:20but we forget to defend the upper class
08:23For example, I have said it several times
08:26how each country chooses
08:30which sector is their priority
08:33Like in Turkey, their priority is tourism
08:36then the focus of all activities is tourism
08:40so they can still work with the driver
08:44the tourism sector
08:45which will later invest in the manufacturing sector
08:48transportation and so on
08:50In Vietnam, the drivers are manufacturing and export
08:55So, if you remember the story of friends in Vietnam at that time
09:00during the pandemic, it was still crowded
09:02but with the note
09:05even the military helped the industries
09:08which still had their own market
09:10but they had to be protected from the pandemic
09:13So, there are policies that are very focused
09:17So, the lockdown is a priority
09:22so we still have to pay attention that the economy must continue to move
09:25Okay, okay
09:26So, from the viewpoint of HIPMI, how do you see it?
09:29How far is the consumption from the middle class
09:34related to activities or production within the industry itself?
09:39Yes, Mr. Henry has said a lot of things
09:45but I want to pull it back, Mr. Pras
09:48Okay
09:49Because if we look at it, Indonesia has been stuck for almost 30 years
09:54in the middle class
09:57it hasn't jumped to the support of the middle class
10:02In my opinion, the main problem is
10:05when it comes to this reform, there is no policy that is directed
10:13and there is a continuation in a program from one phase of the government to another
10:19On the other hand, we are under pressure from the cost of democracy
10:26and the decentralization process that at the time of the beginning of the reform was in a hurry
10:33However, we feel that up to 20 years after the reform
10:40this decentralization process is not directed
10:44because the main problem is the quality of the middle class in the region
10:50and indeed, in the face of the decentralization of power
10:56the policy from the center to the region is sometimes not in line
11:02Okay
11:03For example, the development of infrastructure proposed by Mr. Jokowi
11:08for example, to support the growth of our agricultural sector
11:14but on the other hand, the provincial government and the municipal government
11:18do not continue the development of the infrastructure
11:22Mr. Pras, this is a practice that we see in the implementation on the ground
11:29For that, we see that in the new era of leadership
11:33there must be a policy breakthrough that can be executed to the regional level
11:42So, as Ms. Henry said, we need to have a decision on the priorities of the industry that wants to be built
11:55If I look at it, we have to go back to building an industry that becomes our basis
12:03which is the agro-industry and agro-fisheries industry
12:06This is what I see, for example, Mr. Prabowo wants to accelerate it
12:13and create a program through infrastructure development in the village
12:19I think this is one step that can move our economic growth back to a more even direction
12:29But if we read the data, in the last 10 years, the process of deindustrialization
12:37Indeed, there is an industry that has been a tight-knit industry
12:44that supports the field of our work, such as the salt industry, the footwear industry
12:50must be in trouble because the international order is also weak
13:00because of COVID and because of the geopolitical situation
13:03But on the other hand, the government in the country is less competitive than China
13:11This is one of the basic things
13:14Okay, that's interesting. How big is the contribution of this winning class to the national economy?
13:19We will discuss it in the next segment, Mr. Angga and Ms. Henry
13:22We will take a short break. We will be back in a moment
13:34Thank you for joining us in Market Review
13:37We will continue to discuss this interesting topic with Ms. Henry Saverini from Core Indonesia
13:42and Mr. Angga Wira from HIPMI
13:44Ms. Henry, this is BPS data
13:46The number of middle class continues to decline from 2019 to 2024
13:53Actually, what is happening, although you have explained it
13:57but how big is the contribution of this middle class to our economic activity?
14:06Okay, Mr. Prasety, if we see that we have a very significant decline in the middle class
14:14when we were affected by COVID in the first year
14:18After that, there is still a decline in the number of middle class until now
14:24Although the decline may be lower
14:27But the consequence of the scaring effect is that it is not easy for workers and entrepreneurs to recover
14:40In addition to the uncertainty, not only globally, but also domestically like now
14:45So, if we look at it, if we are discussing the middle class now
14:51This is very important because they are the supporters of our economy
14:57Because the national spending is on them
15:01For the past few years, the lowest 40% or 20% of the group have been living from the BLT
15:09So, how much BLT is given, that's what they spend, or they live from there
15:14Then later, 10% above, maybe they can, but for survival
15:19But above that, up to 80%, they are a group that lives on their own and their family
15:28That's why this room is what we hope can be filled with productivity
15:36So, the middle class is one, he is productive, he is young, and he is educated
15:45The most important thing is, if we talk about it now, this is a golden period
15:51Because this is a period where we are heading towards the peak of the bonus demography
15:58So, if this middle class is not immediately returned to its power to support our economy
16:08Then we will lose the chance in 2045 to become a country with a strong structure
16:16Not only supported by the upper class, but also by the middle class
16:22Therefore, awareness, maybe we are only talking about the middle class
16:27But hopefully this will be a trigger for the coming government
16:32If you are really sad with the middle class
16:35There are things that need to be done immediately
16:37At least, re-evaluate the PPN 12%
16:42Because the PPN is a tax that will affect everything
16:46And all products that are not covered by the government
16:50So, there will be quite a lot of pressure, that's just one
16:54Then the second, there are a lot of plans to reduce various subsidies
17:00Let's think about it first, which subsidy is not affected by the so-called middle class
17:06Because there is a lower middle class, which they only pay 3.2 to live 4 people in one family
17:14So, if we don't calculate in reducing subsidies
17:20There are a lot of plans, there are energy subsidies, compulsory subsidies, etc.
17:27So, there must be an effort that is quite comprehensive to do that
17:34Whether for those who are salarymen or employees
17:38Those who work as entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs like you
17:43Or also for groups that they can immediately join the middle class
17:50What do you see from the current business world?
17:55It is said that it can also support the absorption of the middle class as workers
18:01Then there is also consumption, which in the end with them working
18:04What is the condition like?
18:05Is there really a pressure in the industrial world
18:09So that the absorption of workers from the middle class is also increasingly limited?
18:15So, our growth so far has been supported by consumption
18:21This is what must be evaluated by our government in the future
18:28If we are supported by the evaluation of consumption
18:33It becomes very difficult when there are changes in policies
18:40Mr. Henry said about taxes and so on
18:44Indeed, what we expect is the support from the government
18:50For the increase in productivity
18:54This is also very important for policies that can support productivity
19:01Because for the last 10 years, we have been helped by the community
19:07Our community has not been helped by our industry
19:12Because our output is still very low
19:15So, the formulation of policies aside must formulate a subsidy policy that can meet the target
19:25Because the government's budget is limited
19:27The energy subsidy is also very large
19:30There must be a correct strategy to meet the target
19:39So, this subsidy must be targeted to the middle and lower classes
19:48Who really need it
19:50So, I very much agree that this subsidy must not be to the product, but to the person
19:58This is just how the mechanism can be directed
20:02And from the ATBN funds owned by the government
20:06Which must lift the existing industry
20:12And there must be direct incentives from the government
20:15Not just incentives from the side of production and taxes
20:20For example, our basic industry such as the textile industry, stainless steel
20:26This must be a serious concern
20:28We have, for example, the steel industry
20:30But so far, I don't think we've had a serious concern
20:34Even though this is the mandate of the government
20:37The mandate to build sub-industry industries
20:40We have to strengthen our domestic industry
20:43What we see is that our industry is dominated by foreign products
20:48For example, the ceramic industry
20:50There are many things we have to do
20:51And we really have to maintain
20:53When we talk about industrialization
20:56We have to have affordable energy sources
20:59We really support this if the gas infrastructure and so on can be connected
21:05From Java to Sumatra
21:06So that our energy sources from the earth's gas can be optimized
21:11So that our energy resources increase
21:15Because for almost the last 10 years
21:18The development of our energy infrastructure has been messed up
21:23For example, the power grid for the super grid
21:27This is not connected
21:29So if there is funding, it has to be invested in the energy sector
21:34If we want to support industrialization
21:37The first thing we have to do is improve our energy
21:41Okay, that's it
21:42Then we'll see what the solution is
21:45Remember, this is still a transition to leadership
21:47Whether it can only be implemented when the next government
21:50Or now it can still be accelerated
21:52We'll leave it for a moment
21:53And Mr. Mirza, make sure you're still with us
22:13Yes, still with us in Market Review
22:15Mr. Mirza, we will continue our discussion this time
22:18How do you see the future of Boeing 3?
22:20There are only 3-2 months left
22:22More or less, Mr. and Mrs. Jokowi
22:24Of course, if the steps that can have a mid-term or long-term impact
22:31It can be done by the coming government
22:35So we have to believe that the current condition
22:41If I can say, this is a yellow light
22:44So if that's the case, a strategy needs to be done in the short term
22:49Such as reviewing the plan for 12% GDP
22:54And also the mid-term impact
22:56Then, if the short-term is only 2 months
22:59At least, the government now
23:02Don't make policies
23:04Which will add to the burden of the middle class
23:07And also the burden of the future economy
23:09Because 2 months won't be enough
23:12To be able to calculate the impact
23:15Of the policies that will be issued
23:18So, this caution must be done
23:21For the coming government, there are so many
23:24There's Mr. Angga here
23:26We never thought of investing for the middle and small class
23:30Now, the government's focus is more on
23:34Pushing for large investments
23:37In fact, the opportunity to push for large investments
23:42In the middle class is huge
23:44And it can be done
23:46I think the coming government can take that portion
23:50Okay, that's the analysis from Korea Indonesia
23:52So, what do you think, Mr. Angga?
23:55Yes, no other than
23:57We have to create a conducive ecosystem
24:02To create a transformation
24:05From the current government's strategy
24:08With generalization
24:11Towards industrialization
24:13So, what Mrs. Henry said
24:15There must be revitalization
24:18Towards our strategy to build an industry
24:21But of course with choices
24:24Which are quite strategic
24:26In what industry do we have
24:29Comparative and competitive advantages
24:32That can be developed
24:34In my opinion, the main key is
24:36In our agro-industry sector
24:38And agro-fisheries
24:40I think this is a big opportunity
24:42And if there was an idea from Mrs. Henry
24:44About investing in the middle and small class
24:48It should be included in the production
24:51In the agro-industry and agro-fisheries sector
24:55This is very possible
24:57So, programs like
24:58People's Business Credit
25:00Should be pushed to a higher level
25:03If there is a business credit
25:05In the middle level
25:06Maybe the amount is between 5 billion to 100 billion
25:09It should be launched
25:11To business owners
25:13To create a business transformation
25:17Especially business in agriculture
25:20I think this is the main key
25:22Because the government is also trying to open
25:25Several regions
25:27But it should also be supported
25:29By the industry
25:30Not only in the agro-industry
25:32In terms of production
25:33But it has to be packed and so on
25:35This will definitely create a lot of access
25:38Especially if there is a food program
25:40This must be supported from the region
25:43Don't let it happen
25:44Another import
25:46To support the program
25:48Okay, that's it
25:49The most important
25:50How do we make the most of the demography bonus
25:53Really optimal
25:54Then the middle class can get
25:56More privileges
25:57Such as the opportunity to work
25:59Then the opportunity to get funding
26:01So they can be entrepreneurs in the future
26:04Okay, Mrs. Hendry
26:05Thank you very much for your time
26:07Thank you, Mr. Angga
26:08Thank you for your insight
26:09Good luck with your activities
26:11Stay healthy
26:12Thank you
26:13Thank you
26:14Yes, viewers
26:15Don't leave your seat
26:16Because in a moment
26:17We will be back with other interesting topics
26:19Related to optimization
26:21Opportunity to work with Indonesia-Africa
26:23Market Review will be back soon