Meski kondisi perekonomian di dalam negeri tengah menghadapi tekanan, mulai dari deflasi yang terjadi dalam 5 bulan terakhir, PMI Manufaktur yang masuk dalam level kontraksi, serta adanya pelemahan daya beli masyarakat, namun industri ritel masih terus mencoba bertahan dan menata asa. Hal ini seiring dengan akan tibanya momentum akhir tahun, seperti perayaan Natal dan Tahun Baru yang secara siklikal menjadi pendorong kinerja industri ritel nasional.
Belum lagi ditambah dengan data Badan Pusat Statistik yang mencatat, jumlah kelompok menengah di Indonesia cenderung turun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Di mana pada 2021, jumlah kelas menengah mencapai 53,83 juta orang, namun angka ini menurun menjadi 49,51 juta pada 2022. Kemudian, turun lagi menjadi 48,27 juta pada 2023, dan menjadi 47,85 juta pada 2024.
Di sisi lain, Asosiasi Pengusaha Ritel Indonesia (Aprindo) masih optimis bahwa kinerja industri ritel dari sisi penjualan masih akan tumbuh positif sebesar 18% secara tahunan di akhir tahun 2024.
Belum lagi ditambah dengan data Badan Pusat Statistik yang mencatat, jumlah kelompok menengah di Indonesia cenderung turun dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Di mana pada 2021, jumlah kelas menengah mencapai 53,83 juta orang, namun angka ini menurun menjadi 49,51 juta pada 2022. Kemudian, turun lagi menjadi 48,27 juta pada 2023, dan menjadi 47,85 juta pada 2024.
Di sisi lain, Asosiasi Pengusaha Ritel Indonesia (Aprindo) masih optimis bahwa kinerja industri ritel dari sisi penjualan masih akan tumbuh positif sebesar 18% secara tahunan di akhir tahun 2024.
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TVTranscript
00:00Yes, hello viewers, how are you today straight from the IDX studio in Jakarta, I am Prasetyowi Bowo
00:27back again in Market Review, a program that deals with issues that are economic drivers in Indonesia.
00:33You can also watch our live streaming on IDXchannel.com.
00:37And viewers, let's just start the complete market review.
00:49Yes, viewers, the national retail industry is in full swing,
00:52as the end of the year is approaching, such as Christmas and New Year.
00:57The Indonesian Retail Association has set an optimistic target
01:02with a growth of 18% at the end of 2024.
01:11Although the economic conditions in the country are under pressure,
01:15starting from the deflation that occurred in the last five months,
01:18the manufacturing industry has entered a level of contraction,
01:21as well as a weakening of the purchasing power of the people.
01:24However, the retail industry continues to try to survive and adjust.
01:29This is in line with the arrival of the end of the year momentum,
01:32such as Christmas and New Year,
01:35which cyclically becomes the driving force of the national retail industry.
01:40Not to mention the data from the Statistics Center,
01:43the number of middle class groups in Indonesia tends to decline in recent years.
01:48Where in 2021, the number of middle class reached 53.83 million people,
01:54but this number fell to 49.51 million in 2022.
02:00Then it fell again to 48.27 million in 2023
02:05and 47.85 million in 2024.
02:10On the other hand, the Indonesian Retail Association or APRINDO
02:14is still optimistic that the retail industry's sales energy will still grow positively
02:19by 18% in the end of 2024.
02:24This is driven by the momentum throughout December,
02:26starting from Christmas until the holiday of the end of the year or Nataru.
02:31From Jakarta, the coverage team, IDX Channel.
02:38To discuss this interesting theme,
02:40the retail industry is hoping that by the end of 2024,
02:43we will be able to connect via Zoom with Mr. Roy Nicholas Mande,
02:47the chairman of the Indonesian Retail Association APRINDO.
02:50Hello, how are you, Mr. Roy?
02:52Good morning, Mr. Pras. Good morning.
02:55Good morning, Mr. Roy. Thank you for taking the time.
02:58And here is Mr. Bima Yudhistira, the director of Resekutif Seleos.
03:02Hello, Mr. Bima. How are you?
03:04Hello, how are you?
03:06Thank you for taking the time.
03:08And before we discuss further, we will first review the economic conditions.
03:12Mr. Bima, how is your review of the overall industry performance,
03:17especially in the retail industry throughout this year?
03:21Yes, it is interesting to cover retail until at least the month of September 2024.
03:28Although there are signs of declines, five months of profit,
03:32then the middle class experienced a slight decline.
03:36But actually, if we read retail, it can't be read as a whole.
03:40We can read it in groups.
03:43From the real sales index issued by the Bank of Indonesia,
03:47some have risen, some have fallen.
03:49So throughout 2024, at least,
03:52there is, for example, a group of sandangs for clothes,
03:55wearing it as a footwear.
03:57The growth is still good, still 3.1%.
04:01Why is it better? Because annually,
04:03it has recovered compared to April 2024, which was negative.
04:08Then there is, for example, for motor vehicle fuel,
04:13it is also included in the real.
04:15There is a fairly high increase of 8.7%.
04:18This means that there is a tendency,
04:20okay, motor vehicle sales are a bit sluggish.
04:23But actually, the mode of transportation used to consume fuel is increasing.
04:29Then there is food and drink.
04:31The food and drink growth is between 6% and 8%,
04:35from July to September 2024.
04:38And retail and accessories,
04:41even though it's a bit slow, it's still growing positively, 4.2%.
04:45So there are some subgroups that are still popular with the public,
04:49so there is deflation, there is ...
04:53It's true, it happens, especially in the middle class.
04:56But actually, overall, it still records a fairly positive growth.
05:02Okay, it's still quite positive, it seems.
05:04Several sectors in the country.
05:07Pak Roy Mandi, actually, how is your update,
05:09related to retail industry energy,
05:12throughout the year?
05:13Is it really the economic conditions that we know,
05:15when there is pressure from economic growth,
05:17which is still stagnant at 5%,
05:19there is deflation that happened in the last five months,
05:21and the decline of the middle class, Pak Roy?
05:25Yes, that's right.
05:27So what Pak Bima said,
05:29I agree that retail growth is still happening.
05:34We know that when we look at the indicator figures,
05:39or accurate figures, even our economic growth from time to time,
05:42Q1, Q2, and Q3, we are now in Q4,
05:46everything is still at 5%.
05:495% plus or minus, 5.1, 5.05,
05:53the numbers are moving around that number.
05:56It means, because of the contribution of our economic growth,
06:01it is supported by household consumption,
06:04which is among them,
06:06of course, part of household consumption,
06:08people are spending money,
06:10people buy basic necessities and daily necessities in retail,
06:14everything is accumulated,
06:16becomes household consumption,
06:19and we see the output in economic growth,
06:23in the number that is still plus or minus 5%.
06:26So, in line with what Pak Bima said,
06:31there are sub-groups that are growing,
06:36but there are stagnant sub-groups,
06:39according to the sector or industry.
06:41Earlier, it was said that textiles are stagnant,
06:45for the people, of course,
06:48they have more daily necessities,
06:51to eat and drink, F&B, that's why there is an increase,
06:54but for those who are stagnant,
06:57maybe later in the season,
06:59at the end of the year, there is a natural season,
07:03then people will shop.
07:05So, there are sub-groups that are happening.
07:08At the same time, I want to review that our retail growth is not 18%,
07:13but 8-12%.
07:158-12%, okay.
07:17Yes, calculated by sub-groups.
07:21Contributed by sub-groups.
07:23Some are indeed low, but some are still increasing.
07:27Then we know that yesterday we just met
07:32with the Ministry of Economy,
07:34we also talked about planning for the national shopping program.
07:38Whatever the name of the national shopping program,
07:41then this is part of the direct promotion,
07:45then how from the retail effort to scrape,
07:49in the middle of the deflation that has been going on for 5 months,
07:52even some may see that this month is still in deflation,
07:55but in November, it just hit,
07:58became a little inflation,
08:00plus or minus 1, 1.5 maybe,
08:03January-December there will also be inflation, but still low,
08:07but at least, there is a shopping program
08:10for the people who have the capacity,
08:14have the ability to spend money, will shop,
08:17in this shopping program.
08:19Hopefully, what is done,
08:21the government's synergistic, of course,
08:24with entrepreneurs is very much needed in this era.
08:29Yes, Pak Roy, but the decline of the middle class,
08:31then there was a weakening of the purchasing power of the public,
08:33is it actually too deep?
08:35Not related to the retail sector,
08:37but there is still growth in some retail industry sectors.
08:42Yes, that's right.
08:44Indeed, we experience, we admit that indeed,
08:47I try to answer this question,
08:50some retailers on the island of Java,
08:52it's really a little suffering.
08:55I say a little suffering,
08:57because we know that the manufacturer and the industry sector,
09:01the labor force is on the island of Java.
09:04So, it affects the retail productivity on the island of Java,
09:08which is indeed lower than 2023, we admit.
09:12The performance for the next 3-4 months,
09:16because it does correspond to the deflationary period.
09:19But outside Java, it's still significant.
09:23Because they are certainly supported by the industry or sector
09:27which is not manufactured,
09:29which as we know, textiles,
09:31T-shirts, shoes, footwear, everything is average in Java.
09:34Meanwhile, outside Java, it's farming, mining,
09:38whose sector is still thriving, so they have the ability.
09:43We do see that this trend is decreasing on the island of Java
09:48due to a weakening of purchasing power in the mid-level sector.
09:52What we know is that the contribution of the middle class is decreasing.
09:57The number is 9.4 million, if I'm not mistaken, measured by the BPS.
10:02So, the condition of the community is indeed holding back on spending.
10:07And we see that many of the labor sectors are heading to informal,
10:12which is bigger than the formal ones on this island of Java.
10:17We see it getting more and more chaotic everywhere,
10:19because there are also people who resist reduction or PHK,
10:23so they have to do online transportation and so on.
10:28Well, that makes their opinions, of course, not regular or complete, not routine,
10:34so their spending is also not routine, their spending is also limited.
10:38Well, that's what makes productivity on the island of Java, especially, decrease.
10:44But we are helped by the productivity of our retail members
10:48that are located outside Java.
10:54That's interesting. So, from outside Java, the growth is still positive,
10:59and still in line with the target of the retail members.
11:02So, what about the economic condition?
11:04Is there a deflation? Maybe it will still happen this month.
11:07Then, how about the purchasing power?
11:09Will it continue to decline until the end of the year or not?
11:13We will discuss that later in the next segment.
11:15So, for now, Mr. Bima, Mr. Roy, and Mr. Mirsa, we will be right back.
11:35Thank you for still joining us in Market Review,
11:38and we will continue this interesting discussion with Mr. Roy Mande,
11:41Mr. Prindo, and Mr. Bima Yudhisthira, Executive Director of Seleos.
11:45Well, Mr. Bima, if we talk about the economic condition,
11:48many parties are concerned about the deflation,
11:52there is still a possibility of this month,
11:54the decline in purchasing power, the middle class has also started to decline,
11:58and some of them have entered the informal sector.
12:01Will conditions like this continue until the end of the year,
12:05so that there is a pressure on the level of consumer consumption
12:09which is indeed the national economic engine of Indonesia?
12:14Yes, in fact, the deflation should have a greater impact on the people's spending,
12:19but because the deflation is the source,
12:22because the demand is weak in aggregate,
12:25it results in the people being reluctant to hold back
12:29for several sub-groups of goods,
12:31including laser-type goods such as recreation.
12:34It should be during this pandemic, we have holidays,
12:37crowded hotels, and so on.
12:39But what happens is that the recreational sub-groups are still low.
12:43So that's one of the indicators,
12:44demand in aggregate, some are a bit stressed.
12:48But when it comes to deflation,
12:50actually from the price expectation index,
12:53in the next six months,
12:55there will be an increase.
12:57So the index goes up, even the peak is in January 2025.
13:01It seems that the consumer is more likely,
13:04in the next six months, there will be at least PPN,
13:08from 11% to 12%.
13:11Then there are those who are waiting for a salary cut,
13:14do you want to be cut from your salary?
13:17Then there is a third party,
13:19insurance, liabilities, or motor vehicle insurance.
13:23So we have a list of about 10 policies
13:26that will affect the price,
13:28the price of retail goods.
13:30The government must also realize that
13:32the condition is not ideal
13:35to make cuts or additions,
13:38including those that will be immediately reflected
13:40in the price adjustment in retail.
13:42In addition, I also agree,
13:46Mr. Roy, that the informal sector is getting bigger
13:50and this affects the purchasing power,
13:53the responsible income,
13:55the income that can be spent by the community.
13:58Because if it's almost 60%,
14:01our employees are in the informal sector,
14:04the increase or decrease in income is uncertain.
14:06It's different from the formal sector,
14:08industry, business.
14:10The formal one still gets a salary every month,
14:13no bonus has been added.
14:15So the variable of the increase or decrease is not the salary,
14:17but from the bonus.
14:18Meanwhile, if informal,
14:20it will affect the monthly income.
14:23One more thing, I will continue in a spatial way,
14:26it's true, Mr. Roy, that in this Java region,
14:29it's slowing down,
14:31even though it's slowing down,
14:32but it's still in a positive category annually.
14:35Semarang, West Java, Surabaya,
14:38are experiencing a slowdown,
14:40but also what we see,
14:42a sharp decline in Banjarmasin.
14:45So the real sales in Banjarmasin
14:48are minus 23.4% annually.
14:51It seems that the Banjarmasin area
14:54in Banjarmasin is a reflection
14:56that the one-time income
14:58seems to depend on coal.
15:02Meanwhile, the price of coal is not so good
15:05at the international level,
15:07so the commodity will affect the income of the people
15:10to shop in retail.
15:12But if we shift a little,
15:14for example, Manado,
15:15Manado is all green,
15:17Manado is 11% increase,
15:19Makassar is 6.3%.
15:21So, in a spatial way,
15:24Java should pay more attention
15:26if it is necessary to save the industry,
15:29so that there are more formal jobs,
15:31there is a source material for the middle class,
15:33we support that.
15:35But also in the Kalimantan area,
15:37it seems that it has to start diversifying
15:40from the commodity sector,
15:41so that there is an industry,
15:43there are other sectors
15:45that can provide stable income.
15:48It doesn't go up and down
15:49according to the price of commodities that go up and down.
15:52Okay, that's the condition related to the economy
15:55in Java and outside Java,
15:58with the condition in Banjarmasin
16:00which turns out to still have a little decline
16:03because it depends on the mining community there.
16:06Well, Paroi, what is the mitigation strategy
16:09that has been prepared by your friends
16:11to deal with the decline
16:13and then face the momentum
16:16at the end of the year when there is a boom there?
16:19Yes, of course, we in a group of companies
16:24together feel the situation or condition
16:27that is currently happening.
16:29We have been making efforts, for example,
16:33we are linked with various manufacturers or suppliers
16:37to rebrand again,
16:40then also, of course, the usual standards
16:43that we usually do,
16:44of course, the packaging is arranged again,
16:50so the number of sizing and so on
16:53to achieve the ability or also the purchasing power of the community.
16:58Then efficiency, we continue to do it,
17:02how to replace costs
17:05with more energy, more efficient.
17:08Then the omnichannel digitalization program
17:12we continue to use it to the maximum
17:15related to serving the community,
17:18especially those who still have the ability to shop.
17:20But I would like to underline, Mr. Pras,
17:23that we do hope a lot in this new government
17:26to immediately launch the programs that are being campaigned for
17:30or that have become the main program.
17:32For example, let's talk about this food program
17:37for twice a day or for pregnant women and children.
17:40Starting on January 1, there are already many attempts.
17:43This needs to be implemented immediately
17:46in order to attract the lower mid-level,
17:49which is estimated to be around
17:51in total, if this program runs,
17:54one and a half million will be created.
17:56From those who buy goods, then cook, deliver,
18:00and all kinds of things that already have a body
18:03in this cabinet, the National Food Body.
18:05So how is this accelerated
18:08and also made systematic
18:12so that they can be absorbed
18:14by the PHK. Now the PHK has more than 50,000.
18:17Then the mid-level is down.
18:19Various sectors are also now, as Mr. Bima said,
18:23the goods are not better.
18:25It's still delusional.
18:27There must be a direct way out.
18:31Those who have a sense of crisis from the government
18:35in facing this situation of the lower mid-level.
18:37So that acceleration, we hope it can be done immediately
18:41and use the lower mid-level.
18:44So the data is back again.
18:46Data on this mid-level,
18:48how far has it been done?
18:50Don't make them poor or very poor
18:53because the mid-level is down now.
18:56Of course, this data has been stimulated now
18:59so that at the beginning of the year it can run.
19:01They can be productive.
19:03They can get income.
19:05Now, non-formal, there is hope
19:09with the existence of this food program
19:13involving them.
19:15This is one of the fastest ways.
19:17In addition to hillarization, industrialization,
19:19which must still be in process over time.
19:22So these things that make the mid-level
19:26become a very important concentration
19:29because they are also contributors
19:31for the consumption of our households.
19:33And productivity for our retail.
19:36But how big is KTLA?
19:38What is the impact if this free food program
19:41can really be rolled out to the retail sector?
19:43We will discuss the answer in the next segment.
19:46We will be back after the break.
20:04You are still watching Market Review.
20:06We will continue this interesting discussion
20:08about the retail industry at the end of 2024.
20:11Mr. Roy, how big is the impact
20:14that can be felt for the retail industry
20:17if this free food program can be implemented and rolled out?
20:23The impact is certainly not 100%.
20:25Because we know that the commodity for this program
20:31is directly from the manufacturer.
20:34Directly from the sourcing, directly from the retail sector.
20:37Because if you take it from the retail sector,
20:39there is already a margin, the price is already different.
20:41But what we mean here is
20:44when they have a formal and registered job,
20:48well-documented,
20:50who are the perpetrators of this job,
20:53including those from the mid-level, as I said earlier.
20:55Well-documented, they are well-operated
20:58in all regions, provinces, districts, and cities.
21:01The mid-level is down, the PHK,
21:04all kinds of cases that are happening now.
21:07They get a job and they get a revenue.
21:10And that revenue can be spent again.
21:13Spent again.
21:15What they have not spent yet
21:18because they are informal.
21:20So the multiplier effect that we expect
21:23from the program that is being carried out.
21:27But again, starting from the documentation.
21:29And of course, the same spirit,
21:32monitoring,
21:35because we don't want things to happen that we don't expect.
21:38Okay.
21:39What do you think, Bima?
21:41If this is the end of the year,
21:43then what policies are needed to be harmonized?
21:47Or do we need a new orchestration?
21:50So that it can really boost the purchasing power of the community.
21:53At least until the end of the year,
21:55then there are challenges.
21:57Last year, there was a 12% increase in PPN.
21:59If it's done, then what about Taperah?
22:01Please.
22:03The most important thing is,
22:05first of all, social assistance,
22:07our social protection,
22:09is only 1.17%.
22:11From domestic products,
22:13and only targeting the poor and the extremely poor.
22:16Meanwhile, between the poor and the middle class,
22:19there are 137 million people.
22:21What is called the aspiring middle class,
22:23it doesn't touch the social assistance from the government.
22:26So there must be an expansion there.
22:28Second, whether you want it or not,
22:30tax policy or tax policy,
22:33the paradigm must be shifted.
22:35So don't play with the rate.
22:37But as Mr. Roy said,
22:39actually there is a connection.
22:41If our formal workers increase,
22:43our tax base will be bigger.
22:46So without playing with the rate,
22:48but creating a formal job,
22:50the tax ratio will be easier to increase.
22:53So this old paradigm,
22:55the increase in rates,
22:57the paradigm must be changed first.
22:59So all the taxes or taxes that will be a burden next year,
23:02must be evaluated first.
23:04Next, actually,
23:06what we need to see in the future is,
23:09how dependent on the rise and fall of commodity prices,
23:13especially outside the island of Java,
23:15there must be diversification of new growth engines.
23:18For example, if the growth engine is free food,
23:22this is expected with a budget of 71 trillion rupiah,
23:26don't run out for the bureaucracy cost.
23:29So there are several examples that can move the retail sector,
23:33that example can be in Japan,
23:35can be in Mali, we are studying it.
23:37It turns out there are several schemes that don't spend on the bureaucracy,
23:41but directly the money from the food goes to schools,
23:44to school canteens,
23:46it will move the retail sector around the area.
23:48But if the focus is to provide the bureaucracy,
23:52provide a longer chain to the school level,
23:57it will swallow it in the middle of the road.
24:00So the effect is felt to the area,
24:03to the school, it becomes smaller.
24:05So the effective bureaucratic models,
24:08which are more lean,
24:09which are more flexible to eat food,
24:11it will also support the success of this program to the retail sector.
24:16Okay, that's it,
24:17related to how we can take advantage of the momentum too,
24:20even though there was also a policy that was targeted.
24:24Now, if we talk about retail products,
24:27or the types of retail themselves that may be benefited
24:31with the presence of the momentum at the end of the year,
24:33Mr. Roy, so that it can be pushed further,
24:36what is it?
24:38Yes, of course the first is F&B,
24:42because F&B is a season or not a season,
24:47it must be significant.
24:49If it's a season, it can be doubling or tripling than before the season.
24:53Then usually after F&B,
24:57there is also a follow-up,
24:59the next product is sandals,
25:02with accessories, with accessories,
25:05including the sole.
25:07Usually if there is a season,
25:08there is a phenomenon in our society for a new look.
25:14Well, it must also follow.
25:16Then the third is recreation,
25:19tourism or destinations that will also
25:22show the purchase of goods
25:26when they are going to recreate,
25:28or when they will walk.
25:30So, some things that of course
25:32will definitely open at the end of the year,
25:34but in line with Mr. Bima's opinion,
25:37that there is this January 1,
25:41there is a phenomenon that has been HPPed,
25:44has been guaranteed,
25:46has risen from 10 to 11 years ago,
25:49then this January 1 is planned to be 12.
25:52We really hope and really ask the government
25:56to postpone it.
25:58Even now, it has started to feel
26:01before the rise happened.
26:03There are already some that are moving,
26:06the government has started to adjust.
26:08But this has to be postponed,
26:11or yes, because this is already part of the law,
26:15it must be postponed.
26:16And it seems that until now,
26:19it has not become a propaganda
26:23or what is conveyed to the public
26:26for this matter.
26:27Because there are also sweet vendors,
26:29this information also came out.
26:31There are also plastic vendors
26:33who want to go out.
26:35And of course tobacco.
26:36Tobacco is also usually at the beginning of the year.
26:39How are these phenomena,
26:41this is also what will pressure
26:43in terms of consumer aggregates in society,
26:47will hold or also reduce.
26:49Well, this also has to be monitored
26:51or take active, concrete and real steps.
26:56Not later on January 31,
26:58it will be announced
27:00or there are new ways or other steps,
27:03while the price has all risen.
27:05But right now,
27:07if it is a wise step that can be done,
27:10of course we appreciate the new government
27:13with a red and white cabinet
27:15which is very extraordinary and proactive.
27:19Yes, that's it.
27:20Hope from retail industry players.
27:22Then the economy has also given a signal
27:24that it's okay,
27:25our efforts to mitigate,
27:28then how do we manage the smoke.
27:30But in the end, there are still challenges
27:32related to the taxes that may be imposed
27:35in the coming 2025,
27:37which is considered to be even more pressing.
27:41From several industries in Indonesia,
27:44including our retail sector,
27:46there was PPN 12%,
27:48then plastic vendors,
27:49then there is TAPERA
27:51and motorcycle insurance.
27:54Maybe this can be the attention
27:56of our new president,
27:58Prabowo Subianto,
27:59so that we can maintain our economic activity
28:02with relaxation that will be done next year.
28:06And hopefully this can be a consideration for them.
28:09Mr. Roy, my time is limited.
28:11Mr. Biman, thank you very much
28:12for the analysis and information that you have conveyed.
28:15Mr. Roy, thank you for the update
28:17that you have given to the audience today.
28:19Good luck with your activities again.
28:21Good health, Mr. Roy, Mr. Biman. Thank you.