Why were NFL teams better at running than passing in Week 1?
If you look across the NFL in Week 1, you'll find that teams were more effective running the football than they were passing it. We've come to expect that passing is the way to win in the modern NFL, so what's with this early change? Bobby goes into this idea in this version of Below the Belt.
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00:00The expected points added historically over the last decade has been way more efficient
00:22for passing the ball than running the ball.
00:24I think what the number was, was the best rushing attack was the equivalent to about
00:30the 17th or 18th best passing attack.
00:33Yeah, in fact, EPA, which is what it says for EPA per play over the last decade since
00:392014, there has not been a single season where running the ball on average adds to your EPA.
00:47It on average is negative EPA for each play.
00:52And for passing the ball, it's relatively been around on average for much of the last
00:56decade, around a half a point or a 0.05 is what it is.
01:02No 0.05.
01:04And typically it would be amazing.
01:05Yeah, no half point would be ridiculous.
01:07But it's something that where you go back, it's the complete opposite end on the negative
01:10specter for running the ball until the last couple of years, we're running has still maintained
01:16down.
01:17And in the last two years, passing has also been negative EPA on average per play.
01:22And that's the first time it's been that way in 10 to 12 years.
01:26And this first week of the NFL season might have seen the full reversal because in the
01:31first week it was negative 0.07 EPA per play to throw the ball and it was even flat, even
01:39for running the ball.
01:40That was Bill Belichick's big week one takeaway, the number of 175 yard passers or less.