日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月28日 石破新政権を大展望！ 人事・解散・経済は？
日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年9月28日 石破新政権を大展望！ 人事・解散・経済は？
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TVTranscript
00:00Iwai Tomoaki, Professor of Honorary Professors at the University of Japan
00:11Good morning.
00:13Today is September 28th.
00:15We have news for you.
00:17Let me introduce this week's guest.
00:20Professor Iwai Tomoaki,
00:22Professor of Honorary Professors at the University of Japan
00:24who is knowledgeable about politics and money.
00:26Thank you for joining us.
00:28Professor Atsuo Ito,
00:30Professor of Honorary Professors at the University of Japan
00:32who is knowledgeable about politics and money.
00:34Thank you for joining us.
00:36Professor Motoyasu Asaoka,
00:38Professor of Political Science at the University of Tokyo
00:40Thank you for joining us.
00:42Thank you for joining us.
00:44Let's take a look at today's news.
00:47Here it is.
00:49As you can see from the guest,
00:52today's topic is the Ishiba Shinsengen.
00:55When will the Ishiba Shinsengen be held?
00:58What will happen to the government?
01:00Let's take a closer look.
01:02We will be looking at how things will change
01:05in the Ishiba Shinsengen.
01:07We will be looking at how things will change.
01:09Yamakawa-san,
01:12your catchphrase is
01:14the market's precedent.
01:16Yesterday's discussion on the exchange rate and stocks
01:19was very interesting.
01:21It was great.
01:23I don't remember the exchange rate
01:26moving this much during the pre-war period.
01:30It wasn't decided during the trading period,
01:35but looking at the movement of the stock market,
01:38it has changed a lot.
01:40I would like to think about
01:43how the Ishiba Shinsengen economy will develop.
01:46Let's take a closer look.
01:48Let's take a look at the commercial.
01:51Let's take a look at why there was a reversal from the 2nd place.
02:00Yesterday, the 9 candidates
02:03competed in the presidential election.
02:07In the first round of voting,
02:09the Minister of Health and Welfare,
02:11Takaichi, was in the lead with 72 votes for the member of parliament
02:14and 109 votes for the member of parliament.
02:19In the second round of voting,
02:21the Minister of Health and Welfare,
02:23Ishiba, with 46 votes for the member of parliament
02:26and 108 votes for the member of parliament,
02:29was in the lead.
02:31The Minister of Environment,
02:33Koizumi, who was in the lead at first,
02:35was in third place.
02:37The final round of voting
02:39was between Takaichi and Ishiba.
02:45In the last speech before the final round of voting,
02:47Mr. Ishiba said,
02:50There are many things that I am not good at.
02:53I hurt the feelings of many people.
02:56I think there were many people
02:58who had many unpleasant feelings.
03:01I would like to apologize
03:03from the bottom of my heart.
03:07He looked back at the past
03:09with a mysterious look
03:11and said that he would protect the country
03:13and protect the people.
03:18Mr. Takaichi said,
03:42He said,
03:44He said,
03:52And the result of the final round of voting was...
04:06Mr. Ishiba won by a reversal.
04:08In the fifth round of voting,
04:10he finally won the seat of the President of the People's Party.
04:15Mr. Ishiba won the seat of the President of the People's Party.
04:18In the general election in 2012,
04:20Mr. Ishiba won the seat of the President of the People's Party
04:23with the largest number of votes,
04:25but lost to Mr. Abe in the final round of voting.
04:31This time, he was humiliated.
04:34Where was the cause of Mr. Ishiba's victory?
04:39And the next thing to pay attention to
04:41is the general election.
04:43At the press conference,
04:45Mr. Ishiba said,
05:02He gave an overview of the general election.
05:09Also, at the local party committee and the prime minister's office,
05:14Mr. Ishiba said,
05:22What will Mr. Ishiba look like?
05:31Mr. Noda, the new representative of the Liberal Democratic Party,
05:34who is running for office from the People's Party,
05:37is expected to focus on the issue of money laundering in the general election.
05:41How will Mr. Ishiba respond?
05:47And what will happen to economic policy?
05:51Yesterday, when he appeared live on WBS on TV Tokyo,
05:55Mr. Ishiba said,
05:57He said,
06:04He also said,
06:16What will Mr. Ishiba's decision be?
06:23Today, we will deepen our discussion on these three themes.
06:26First, the first theme,
06:28Mr. Ishiba, the new president.
06:30We will look into the cause of victory.
06:32First, let's look at the results of yesterday's general election.
06:36In the first vote,
06:38Mr. Takaichi was in first place,
06:40Mr. Ishiba was in second place.
06:42Mr. Koizumi, who was said to be in third place,
06:44was in 75th place,
06:46and Mr. Takaichi was in second place.
06:48However, the result was that the party vote did not increase,
06:50and Mr. Takaichi was in third place.
06:52And as a result of Mr. Takaichi's and Mr. Ishiba's
06:54votes, Mr. Ishiba received a total of 215 votes,
06:56which exceeded Mr. Takaichi's 194 votes,
06:58and he was elected as the new president of the JCPOA.
07:00Mr. Ishiba's vote was 189,
07:02Mr. Todo's vote was 26,
07:04Mr. Takaichi's vote was 173,
07:06and Mr. Todo's vote was 21.
07:08Mr. Takaichi's vote was 173,
07:10and Mr. Todo's vote was 21.
07:12Mr. Takaichi's vote was 173,
07:14and Mr. Todo's vote was 21.
07:16At the time when the primary vote was over,
07:18I thought,
07:20Is this Mr. Takaichi?
07:22I thought it was Mr. Takaichi,
07:24but it turned out to be Mr. Ishiba.
07:26First of all,
07:28why did Mr. Ishiba win?
07:30I asked each guest
07:32to write a keyword
07:34about the winner.
07:36Mr. Iwai,
07:40is this the face of the general election?
07:42What does this mean?
07:44After all, this means that the general election
07:46is close.
07:48Looking at the results of the general election
07:50this time,
07:52it is generally said that
07:54it will not be overturned.
07:56When Mr. Abe and Mr. Ishiba
07:58did it before,
08:00there were various violations
08:02due to being overturned,
08:04so I felt like
08:06I was going to Mr. Takaichi,
08:08but even for Mr. Takaichi,
08:10even for Mr. Ishiba,
08:12there was a wolf.
08:14For the members of the Liberal Democratic Party,
08:16it was the ultimate choice.
08:18In such a situation,
08:20the election is close,
08:22so which is more advantageous
08:24to the election?
08:26Generally speaking,
08:28Mr. Ishiba is overwhelmingly
08:30more likely to win.
08:32In the case of Mr. Takaichi,
08:34he was able to consolidate
08:36within the Liberal Democratic Party,
08:38but he couldn't spread his wings.
08:40In particular, Mr. Noda
08:42on the Liberal Democratic Party
08:44was trying to spread his wings
08:46and I think that
08:48Mr. Ishiba was more likely
08:50to win the election.
08:52I think that
08:54the members of the Liberal Democratic Party
08:56worked together.
08:58In the case of Mr. Takaichi,
09:00from Mr. Noda's point of view,
09:02there are several points
09:04that are clear,
09:06for example,
09:08it is easy to pursue the issue
09:10of back-money,
09:12or it is a selective
09:14and difficult issue.
09:16Mr. Ishiba is a person
09:18who is difficult to attack.
09:20In short,
09:22he is a person
09:24who has four points of discussion,
09:26and his words are careful.
09:28In such a situation,
09:30I don't think
09:32Mr. Ishiba will be defeated.
09:34In the case of Mr. Takaichi,
09:36from the point of view
09:38of the members of the Liberal Democratic Party,
09:40Mr. Ishiba is more advantageous
09:42than Mr. Takaichi.
09:44The result of this survey
09:46was overwhelmingly Mr. Ishiba,
09:48so I think that
09:50the members of the Liberal Democratic Party
09:52put a lot of expectations on him.
09:54Mr. Ito, what do you think?
09:56He hates me.
09:58As Mr. Iwai just said,
10:00Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Takaichi
10:02are both wolves
10:04in the Liberal Democratic Party.
10:06It's not like
10:08there are a lot of fans
10:10of Mr. Ishiba.
10:12In the end,
10:14I wonder
10:16which is more hated.
10:18Of course, there are
10:20various reasons for that.
10:22For example,
10:24Mr. Ishiba,
10:26Mr. Takaichi,
10:28Mr. Ishiba,
10:30Mr. Takaichi,
10:32Mr. Takaichi,
10:34Mr. Takaichi,
10:36Mr. Takaichi,
10:38In the end,
10:40Mr. Ermeyan
10:42took into instruments
10:44a big portion of the votes.
10:46In the end,
10:48in the end,
10:50it was Mr. Ishiba
10:52who won the decisive vote,
10:54or how the Kizaha movement
10:56moved in all manner of ways,
10:58I think there are several reasons,
11:00but one of them
11:02is this.
11:04But the other reason
11:06There are a lot of people who don't like Takahashi-san, and I think that's one of the reasons.
11:12That's why Takahashi-san is sending a letter to the Komeito in the pre-election speech.
11:16He was talking about the Komeito at the very end.
11:19I think it's a compound factor, but in a nutshell, it's like this.
11:26In other words, there are people who don't like Ishiba-san and people who don't like Takahashi-san.
11:33There are people who don't like Takahashi-san, and Ishiba-san is a little less popular.
11:39If you look at it as a result, that's probably what will happen.
11:43Asaoka-san, what did you write?
11:47Kishidaha.
11:50After the second round of voting for Takahashi-san, he said that the opening speech was the Kouchikai.
12:04He didn't dare to write 9, but he made a broad move, so he didn't dare to write 9.
12:12The conclusion is still hard.
12:15Mr. Kishida went to New York to give a speech at the U.N. General Assembly.
12:22At that time, I asked Mr. Kishida what kind of person he wanted the press to be.
12:27He said he wanted someone who could follow his policies.
12:32Mr. Ishiba had planned a press conference about economic policy,
12:42but he said something like, the press has come.
12:46He said something like, we're going to take over the road.
12:49He said something like that.
12:51The timing was fast, wasn't it?
12:53I thought it was a breath of bad luck.
12:55Originally, he said that he didn't think the economic policy was well received.
12:59He said he was going to hold a press conference two days before the general assembly.
13:04I think Mr. Kishida was there, and he said something like that.
13:11In that sense, I think Mr. Hayashi was the first one, but Mr. Ishiba was the second.
13:16Moreover, Mr. Takahashi and Mr. Kishida have different policies,
13:19so Mr. Takahashi is on the far right.
13:22In that sense, I think the Kouchikai was easier for Mr. Ishiba.
13:26I'm showing you this to make it easier for you to think about which votes moved to where in the final vote.
13:36Roughly speaking, I think Mr. Kishida moved to Mr. Ishiba.
13:44And it's a cluster of Mr. Suga.
13:46I think he moved to Mr. Ishiba here, too.
13:51And I know that Mr. Asou moved to Mr. Takahashi.
13:59Even so, when it came to the first round of voting, Mr. Takahashi had a lot more votes than Mr. Ishiba.
14:06The more he reversed it, the more he moved to Mr. Ishiba.
14:10Where was the point?
14:12Mr. Asakura just talked about Mr. Kishida.
14:15Mr. Ito, what are you paying attention to?
14:18In the sense that this general election was extremely unusual,
14:23until that day, we didn't know who would remain in the final vote.
14:27It was a big battle.
14:30Among them, everyone was looking at whether it would probably be Mr. Ishiba versus Mr. Koizumi,
14:34or Mr. Ishiba versus Mr. Takahashi.
14:37This is a high possibility, everyone was looking at it.
14:41But in reality, Mr. Ishiba versus Mr. Takahashi.
14:46In the first round of voting, Mr. Takahashi had even more votes than Mr. Ishiba.
14:52I don't think anyone expected that to happen.
14:56I think that's when everyone switched their way of thinking.
15:02I think that's when everyone switched their way of thinking.
15:07As a result, of course,
15:10I'm sure it's true that everyone was looking at the movement of the old and current parties,
15:17but what is clear is that there is a structure of Mr. Asou versus Mr. Suga.
15:27Mr. Asou hated Mr. Suga becoming the kingmaker.
15:32On the contrary, he became the kingmaker.
15:35I think the most significant factor in this was the movement of the Kishida faction.
15:42About three days ago, I was talking to someone who was very close to Mr. Kishida,
15:48and he said that he hadn't decided yet.
15:51So I'm sure he was worried until just before,
15:54but among the factors that he hadn't decided at the time,
15:57I think he had decided on Mr. Koizumi or Mr. Ishiba,
16:00or maybe Mr. Takahashi.
16:04As a result, Mr. Ishiba and Mr. Takahashi split up.
16:09I think that was one of the factors.
16:13In the sense of who is the kingmaker,
16:19Mr. Asou's power has weakened considerably,
16:22and that's why Mr. Kishida or Mr. Suga are getting stronger.
16:26Is that what it looks like?
16:29I know for a fact that Mr. Kishida was active in the final vote.
16:35And I'm almost certain that Mr. Koizumi's vote went to Mr. Ishiba.
16:40However, Mr. Suga voted for Mr. Koizumi in the first round,
16:45but he lost there.
16:48So I don't think it's necessarily true that Mr. Koizumi will become the kingmaker.
16:52So I think it's more likely that Mr. Kishida will become the kingmaker.
16:58Mr. Iwai, what do you think is the reason for the sudden surge in votes?
17:06If you look at the flow of the votes,
17:09you can see that there is a great deal of understanding.
17:12In short, the people of the board, including Mr. Kishida,
17:16and Mr. Koizumi, of course, can't follow Mr. Takahashi's high-profile way of thinking.
17:23This is already clear.
17:25So Mr. Koizumi had the experience of supporting Mr. Ishiba in the previous general election,
17:31so in the sense that it's close, it's Mr. Ishiba.
17:34I feel that this flow was natural.
17:39So even if Mr. Koizumi becomes the prime minister,
17:44he has been talking about the loss of the Yasukuni,
17:47and what will happen to the Japan-Korea relationship.
17:50Is that what Mr. Kishida was conscious of?
17:53I think so.
17:56In fact, Mr. Kishida's time as prime minister was not so strong,
18:04and it didn't feel like he was swept into the situation.
18:08However, when it comes to the election,
18:13as has been said before in the Liberal Democratic Party,
18:17Mr. Takahashi's theory is still a little too right-wing.
18:22I think there was a reason why he couldn't get on the board.
18:27And let's take a look at Mr. Ishiba's character.
18:31Yes, I summarized the profile.
18:33Mr. Shigeru Ishiba, who became the new prime minister, is 67 years old.
18:36His blood type is type B, and he has a wife, Yoshiko, and two children.
18:41He won for the first time at the age of 29 in 1986.
18:45He was the youngest member of parliament at the time.
18:48He has won 12 times so far,
18:50and has served as defense minister, agricultural and fisheries minister,
18:53local government minister, and chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party.
18:57This was his fifth challenge to the general election.
19:00He is also famous as an otaku on the railroad.
19:03He is a big fan of Candy's.
19:06He can sing up to the third verse without looking at the lyrics.
19:09He can sing up to the third verse. I can't sing.
19:11That's amazing.
19:13And here is his wife, Yoshiko, who will be the first lady.
19:18Mr. Ishiba fell in love at first sight with a classmate at Keio University.
19:22Mr. Ishiba once refused to confess when he graduated.
19:26After that, they had a date,
19:28and he was involved in a movie about an alliance fleet.
19:32He is said to be more popular than Mr. Ishiba in Tottori Prefecture.
19:37Mr. Ishiba recently wrote a letter to Mr. Yoshiko,
19:40saying that he is grateful to the local supporters for their support.
19:45He says that he is a great person who conveys his gratitude to many people.
19:50Ms. Mizuhara, what do you think of an alliance fleet on a date?
19:54Well, I don't think so.
19:59But he seems to be a very sensitive person.
20:02I agree.
20:04Mr. Ishiba has a quiet image,
20:07so he is very sensitive.
20:11Mr. Iwai, what kind of person is Mr. Ishiba?
20:14Mr. Ishiba, when I was involved in the political reform,
20:17I was in the first round of Mr. Ishiba,
20:20and I was a member of the Young Members of Parliament.
20:23He hasn't changed at all since then.
20:25I was in the first round of Mr. Ishiba,
20:28and I was a member of the Young Members of Parliament.
20:31He hasn't changed at all since then.
20:34That's both good and bad.
20:37Even when I was involved in the political reform,
20:40I was very passionate about it,
20:43but I didn't show it.
20:46I'm still the same.
20:49Mr. Ito, what do you think of Mr. Ishiba?
20:52Mr. Ishiba seems to be very happy when he talks about his time.
20:55He says,
20:57We were so passionate about it.
21:00I'm still the same.
21:03Who do you think is the biggest fan of Candies?
21:06I think it's Miki.
21:09I think it's Miki.
21:12She was a relatively quiet woman.
21:15She was a fan of Candies.
21:18She's a railroad nerd.
21:21She's a member of the Maitreya-san,
21:24who is now a member of the Education Ministry.
21:27They're very close.
21:30They're both railroad fans.
21:33One day, I said,
21:36I want to make a government with Maihara someday.
21:39I was surprised.
21:42Mr. Ito,
21:45I'm a little worried about the words.
21:48We need to deepen the discussion.
21:51There are a lot of words that say we need to discuss.
21:54I do a lot of coverage of companies.
21:57People who say they don't have enough discussion
22:00are not very effective.
22:03Don't you have to worry about that in the Ishiba era?
22:06I don't know.
22:09I was talking to a veteran behind Mr. Ishiba.
22:12He said,
22:15You shouldn't say what you should say in the political world.
22:18I think that's what Mr. Ishiba is like.
22:21I think that's what Mr. Ishiba is like.
22:24Mr. Asaoka, through your coverage,
22:27Do you have a character of Mr. Ishiba?
22:30When you enter the Ishiba office,
22:33There's a panel.
22:36There's a panel where Mr. Ishiba is holding a cat.
22:39I wonder how big it is.
22:42I love cats.
22:45When I talk to people in the office,
22:48They say,
22:51I don't like cats, but for some reason they come to Mr. Ishiba.
22:54Mr. Ishiba also said he liked that.
22:57It's going to be a precedent.
23:00Not just cats,
23:03We need to make it so that various deputies come to us.
23:06I'd like them to do their best, not just to catch a cat.
23:09Yes.
23:10Let's take a break and think about the general election.
23:20Next is the second theme.
23:22We will deepen our discussion about the general election and the election of a prime minister.
23:27The focus of the future will be on the prime minister.
23:31On October 1st, a temporary national assembly will be convened and the prime minister will be sworn in.
23:38What kind of people will be the prime minister, the prime minister, and the prime minister will be?
23:44The eight people who competed in the general election, especially Mr. Takaichi and Mr. Koizumi, will be the focus of attention.
23:50Also, I'm wondering if the prime minister and the prime minister will come out of the people who became the candidates for Mr. Ishiba.
23:58First of all, Mr. Iwai, I think you're already thinking about the prime minister.
24:04Where will you focus on?
24:05First of all, it's Mr. Takaichi.
24:07It's not a problem if he wins the general election overwhelmingly, but it's about 53 to 47, so it's a miscalculation.
24:17In that case, we can't ignore Mr. Takaichi.
24:20Mr. Takaichi also said that if he wasn't sworn in, he would break the party.
24:25When Mr. Abe and Mr. Ishiba fought in the past, they overturned it in the end.
24:35So the local organizations were very rebellious, and in the end, they had no choice but to make the prime minister.
24:41After all, Mr. Takaichi is already the chairman of the Senate.
24:45Then, the only person who will be the prime minister will be the prime minister.
24:51I don't know what will happen in that area, but if you don't do it properly, you'll have to fight for the election.
25:00In the case of the Liberal Democratic Party, it has been said that if the inside is broken, it is weak to the election.
25:05In that case, I think it will be a very difficult task to deal with Mr. Takaichi.
25:12Certainly, if you put it in the cabinet, if the difference in thinking is shown in the table this time,
25:19it will be difficult to deal with the security and foreign affairs.
25:22However, the economy is also very different, isn't it?
25:26That's right.
25:27So it would be better to make him the prime minister.
25:31However, when Mr. Ishiba was the prime minister at the beginning of the Abe administration,
25:39he became the prime minister and went around the country to increase the popularity of the local government.
25:45From his own experience, Mr. Ishiba may be a little wary.
25:49Mr. Ito, what do you think?
25:51Well, first of all, as a premise, if all eight people except Mr. Ishiba were appointed as foreign ministers,
26:00there would be almost no foreign ministers.
26:05Of course, there is a difference in temperature, and I think there is a possibility that the cabinet and other officials will be divided,
26:12but I'm a little skeptical that all of them will be all of them.
26:16The other point is that the general election is coming up soon.
26:23I understand what Mr. Iwai said, but if we can break through to the general election at once and get decent results there,
26:32I think there is a low possibility that the disunity in the party will deepen in the future.
26:37So winning the election is the most important factor.
26:41I think the first thing to do is to win the election.
26:46Who is suitable for that?
26:50Certainly, I think Mr. Takahashi will be one of the keys.
26:55I wonder if it's okay to add Mr. Takahashi to the position of the cabinet secretary in charge of the election.
27:04I wonder what will happen to Shinjiro Koizumi.
27:07Well, I think there is a possibility that he will be promoted in the sense that he will be trained from now on.
27:16For example, if he runs for popularity, he will be the chief executive officer.
27:21I'm thinking about that, but the chief executive officer is exposed to meetings every day.
27:26After all, the speech is prioritized, so I think it's a little difficult.
27:31So, if you think about it in a good way, I feel like I'm going to settle for some kind of promotion post.
27:39The chief executive officer is also very much in the spotlight.
27:42The name of Mr. Iwai, who was also in the nomination list,
27:47or Mr. Ken Saito, who was originally in the same group,
27:52There are some names out there right now.
27:54Is there a high possibility that you will settle for that?
27:57However, for example, the chief executive officer during the Nakasone administration was Mr. Gotoda, who was a Tanaka faction.
28:04So when you choose a chief executive officer,
28:07Some people say that they can accept people who know their mind,
28:10There is also a pattern that they dare to send people who are at a distance from them.
28:14I'm wondering which pattern Mr. Gotoda will choose.
28:17It's true that there are names of people who are close to him in the rumors.
28:22Mr. Asaoka, have you heard anything from the coverage?
28:26It's not a specific thing, but this time it was a non-discrimination operation.
28:32This time, the Ijibashi administration will have to carry out a non-discrimination administration.
28:40I think it's really difficult.
28:43This time, when I saw that there were nine groups,
28:49It's true that we have to deal with the eight people who fought.
28:54Mr. Ishiba also said that it is natural to take the post according to the law.
29:00In the form of dealing with these people or those who supported them,
29:06If you don't take the so-called post, you may stumble at the entrance.
29:13Also, as Mr. Iwasa said earlier,
29:17I can hear the voice of Mr. Takahashi saying that he has to take the post.
29:22Mr. Takahashi is supported by gunpowder reparations,
29:25It's true that it's a good election to get rid of the local people.
29:31At the moment when the gunpowder reparations were over,
29:34A person who violated the leaflet issue
29:37I heard a lot of voices saying,
29:41What's the point of having this person become a mayor?
29:46Mr. Ishiba also emphasized that he is a Liberal Democratic Party that follows the rules.
29:51Moreover, there are voices like that in the Ijibashi administration.
29:54I think it will be difficult if we don't do this well.
29:58Mr. Ishiba, can you give me the schedule?
30:01When will the general election be held?
30:04Mr. Asaoka, can you hear me?
30:07If Mr. Koizumi wins,
30:10We'll have a first-person interview, and we'll have questions from 7 to 9.
30:14We'll have a general election on the 27th.
30:18In other words, with the momentum of gunpowder reparations,
30:21We'll do it right away.
30:24Mr. Ishiba,
30:26Mr. Koizumi said in the general election that we should have a discussion with the opposition.
30:36Considering that,
30:38The budget committee will be held from October 10th to 16th.
30:42Mr. Koizumi also said that he will have a discussion with the opposition.
30:48Considering that we've done something directly,
30:53I think there's a possibility that the general election will be held on the 10th or 17th of November.
31:04Actually, I called the Komeito and the executive committee yesterday.
31:09I asked them how they felt about it.
31:12They said they were ready for the general election on October 27th.
31:15They both said they were a little relaxed.
31:19And after that, I was wondering what the election would be like.
31:24This week, there was also a representative election for the Liberal Democratic Party.
31:31Prime Minister Noda became the new representative.
31:34Representative Noda was born in Ishiba City.
31:37Mr. Ishiba is the type who doesn't run away from the debate.
31:40He said he would like to join the four and debate.
31:44It doesn't look like the Liberal Democratic Party is working with other opposition parties.
31:52Is it possible to work with them after the election?
31:56Mr. Ichiro Ozawa said that he was conscious of cooperation with Mr. Noda.
32:03Mr. Ito, how much cooperation between opposition parties will progress this time?
32:09What will happen between Mr. Noda and Mr. Ishiba after the election?
32:15From the perspective of the Liberal Democratic Party,
32:18Mr. Ishiba has become the president,
32:21so the most difficult opponent has become the president.
32:24I think that's the general perception.
32:27As for the opposition parties' cooperation, there are still a lot of unclear points.
32:32For example, Isshin has lost a lot of momentum.
32:36He is also doing his best to protect Kansai.
32:39If he goes nationwide and distributes power to other places,
32:43he is no longer in such a state.
32:46There are voices from within Isshin saying,
32:49why don't you make an adjustment with Rikken?
32:52Mr. Noda is a little hard right now.
32:55I think one of the big problems is who will be the adjustment in the back.
33:04There is a possibility of moving in that direction.
33:08On the contrary, it is difficult to form a cooperative relationship with the Communist Party.
33:15The Communist Party seems to be very angry with Mr. Noda's route.
33:19However, I wonder what Mr. Noda will decide in terms of which will be a plus.
33:26After all, even if you look at the personnel, there is also a debate.
33:32Mr. Noda is clearly appealing that he has cut ties with the Chudo Hoshiro Line.
33:38There is no other way but to break through that.
33:43If you think about what would happen if it were, for example, Mr. Edano,
33:47it is true that the possibility of cooperation with Isshin and National Democrats has increased compared to that.
33:54Isshin is now losing momentum due to the issue of the governor of Hyogo Prefecture.
34:00If you cooperate with Isshin and National Democrats,
34:04there is a possibility that the rest of the Kansai area will cooperate with Isshin and National Democrats.
34:11However, there is a time constraint.
34:14Once you decide on a candidate, it's not an easy thing to do.
34:19So I don't know how far it will go.
34:22However, I feel that there is a possibility of moving in that direction.
34:27Let's take a look at the current situation.
34:57Asaho-san, when it comes to the investigation of Nikkei TV,
35:00it is a situation before the birth of Mr. Ishiba in September.
35:04How should we look at it?
35:07Well, when the National Diet was open in April or May,
35:11when the opposition was pursuing politics,
35:14the National Diet, Isshin, and National Democrats,
35:19When the National Diet was open in April or May,
35:23the opposition was pursuing politics,
35:26and when the National Diet, Isshin, and National Democrats became a bunch,
35:29the National Diet was out of the picture.
35:32But as the National Diet became more and more dominant,
35:35and the number of supporters increased,
35:38the number of supporters did not reach the front line.
35:41So I think the number of supporters will change depending on how the opposition will be.
35:47However, since Mr. Ishiba won again this time,
35:50I think the number of supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party will increase again.
35:54After that, it will be a tough battle.
35:57I think it is necessary to have a strategy of how to make a lump.
36:01Mr. Iwai, how about the general election?
36:04Will it be a line whether the people will take a single majority or not?
36:08I think so.
36:09So I think the Liberal Democratic Party, including Mr. Ishiba,
36:12is ready to reduce the number of supporters.
36:15After all, the problem of the political society is a problem that is caught in the throat.
36:21Mr. Ishiba was originally a reformist of political science,
36:25so I think one of the points is how to bring out the Ishiba-like nature
36:30to the problem of the political society.
36:35Now that I think about it, the opposition is not doing so well either.
36:42Then, I feel that the number of supporters will go to the limit.
36:49Then, let's think about the policy issues of Mr. Ishiba.
36:56From here, it is about policy.
36:58I will focus on the economic outlook.
37:01This is the economic policy of Mr. Ishiba.
37:05As for economic growth, the minimum wage was reduced by 3 years.
37:08The minimum wage was raised by 1,500 yen on the national average in the 2020s.
37:13As for energy, the nuclear power plant was used for safety purposes.
37:17As for financial and financial matters,
37:19there is a desire to increase the number of legal personnel and reduce the wall of 100 million yen.
37:23As for local government, it has raised the issue of reducing the focus of one Tokyo station.
37:27Mr. Ishiba, who appeared on the World Business Satellite yesterday,
37:33said that it is natural to issue a tax if necessary for economic policy.
37:38And as for finance, he said that he does not think that the Japanese silver is a subsidiary of the government.
37:42He said that he will closely cooperate.
37:46And let's take a look at the market.
37:48Yes, let's take a look at the market.
37:49It has moved a lot.
37:51This is the Aoi Line and the Kawase Line.
37:55Yesterday's market moved in the Sosai Line.
37:57The Kawase Line moved in the En-Yasu direction when Mr. Takahashi won the first round of voting.
38:03In conjunction with En-Yasu, the Japanese silver has expanded and the end price is 39,829 yen, which is 903 yen higher than the previous day.
38:11And it has been about two months since July 19th.
38:16However, when Mr. Ishiba's inauguration was announced,
38:19the yen fell to more than 3 yen at once, and at one time it was in the second half of the 142 yen range.
38:25After that, it fell sharply in the En-Daka direction, and the end price of the 27th New York Foreign Kawase Market was 2 yen 65,000 En-Daka, 142 yen 15,000 to 25,000.
38:37And the Japanese silver also fell sharply in the Osaka Exchange's night trading,
38:42and at one time in December it was around 37,700 yen,
38:46and at the time of yesterday's production, it fell from 39,850 yen to more than 2,000 yen.
38:52Well, Mr. Takahashi was the kind of person who said,
38:56you're a fool to raise the price now.
38:59When Mr. Takahashi's probability increased,
39:01I could see that he was going to touch En-Yasu,
39:04and I could see that the end price of the Japanese silver would go down.
39:09Even so, when Mr. Ishiba became president,
39:12I was surprised that the end price of the Japanese silver would go down
39:19I was surprised that it would go this far.
39:23First of all, Mr. Iwai, what do you think of the economy as a whole?
39:27As is often said, Mr. Ishiba is weak in the economy.
39:32In short, there is a place where the economic policy is not clear.
39:35And at the beginning, he said something quite sharp.
39:39He said that it was a domestic currency or a rich currency.
39:45But in the second half, he's been making a lot of changes.
39:49And I don't know if it's to get the support of Kishinaha,
39:53but he's starting to say that it's a new form of capitalism.
39:56In that sense, I feel like he's become a moderate.
40:00So, I wonder what kind of message he can send to the market
40:05through what he said about how he would demand economic reform.
40:11Mr. Ishiba, I don't know if you're a financially sound person or not.
40:19I don't know if you're a balanced person or not.
40:21I don't know if you're divided or growing.
40:24I don't know what to think.
40:27I don't know.
40:30I may be talking too much,
40:35but if you're going to re-establish economic policy or aim for economic growth,
40:40you need to verify the 30 years that have been lost.
40:45For example, Mr. Ishiba is talking about inflation.
40:50If you look at the U.S. in the last 30 years,
40:53it's about three times as much as the U.S.
40:55The U.K. is also close to that.
40:57On the other hand, Japan is only 1.1 times as much.
41:00So, if you inflate a few percent here,
41:03it's not very good, but it won't catch up.
41:05Why did Japan become such a cheap country?
41:08You need to verify the 30 years that have been lost,
41:11and you need to create a comprehensive economic strategy.
41:16If you don't have enough members,
41:18you need to create a system that includes experts.
41:23If you're not financially sound,
41:27you need to create a system like that
41:30and build a new economic strategy.
41:36Mr. Asaoka, what do you think?
41:39Mr. Ishiba talks a lot about verification and discussion.
41:47I've said many times that it's better to verify
41:52what happened to Avedomics once.
41:56So, I think we should do that first.
42:00Also, in this case,
42:02he's saying that he's going to verify Kishida's policy.
42:06He's saying that he's going to step on the gas
42:10to make sure that the growth cycle is going well.
42:14Basically, I think that the Kishida administration
42:17is going to invest in economic policy.
42:19But how do you balance that
42:21by verifying Avedomics?
42:24If you touch on the policy too much,
42:26it will cause a crack in the U.S. economy.
42:29So, I'm a little concerned about that.
42:32Let's move on to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
42:36This is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' agenda.
42:39Mr. Ishiba's foreign policy is being tested.
42:42The fall is the fall of foreign policy.
42:45Mr. Ishiba is currently talking about
42:48the Asian version of NATO
42:50and the revision of regional agreements.
42:53These are the topics of discussion.
42:55What do you think of Mr. Ishiba's foreign policy?
42:58First of all, when it comes to the Asian version of NATO,
43:01it seems to be true that the U.S. has not yet
43:04taken any active action in that regard.
43:07At the same time, I don't know which countries
43:10are on the agenda,
43:12but Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and the U.S.
43:15are not very good, but I can't call them NATO.
43:18I don't know which countries in Southeast Asia
43:21will get involved.
43:24What I'm paying attention to is
43:27the fact that Japan and the U.S. touched on regional agreements.
43:30In a sense, this is a tiger's den.
43:33However, for example, in reality,
43:36Germany has succeeded in revising regional agreements.
43:39I don't think it's necessary to be quiet
43:42because Japan is the only country
43:45that should not violate U.S. interests.
43:48However, I think it's very risky.
43:51However, if Japan and the U.S. can revise regional agreements,
43:54the Ishiba administration may have a long history.
43:57That's right.
44:00We couldn't secure it.
44:03If it's one cabinet, one job,
44:06I think it's one way to do it with all your might.
44:09Mr. Iwai.
44:12Well, the problem with regional agreements
44:15is that there is a problem in Okinawa.
44:18As you said at the press conference,
44:21there is a request from the Okinawa Prefectural Government
44:24of the Liberal Democratic Party.
44:27What should we do about this?
44:30It's been a problem for many years,
44:33so we're going to work on it.
44:36I don't know if the U.S. will withdraw from the administration,
44:39but if we're going to stay calm,
44:42I think we'll be able to show our presence.
44:45That's what I think.
44:48Mr. Iwai, you said you were going to make an explanation
44:51for the training in the U.S.
44:54and that you were going to make the same agreement with the U.S.
44:57I wonder if we can talk about the strategy from now on.
45:00That's what I thought.
45:03That's right.
45:06As I said earlier,
45:09I don't think we should say it properly.
45:12I don't think it's a bad idea
45:15to resolve the regional agreement,
45:18but I think there's a lot of strategy
45:21and tactics in the way it's done.
45:24And I'm curious about the political funds.
45:27We need a mechanism to verify
45:30whether the rules are being followed at the press conference on the 27th.
45:33I will also be responsible for the explanation
45:36of the dismissal of the deputies
45:40Mr. Iwai, how far are you going to go?
45:43As Mr. Takahashi said,
45:46I don't think it's a good idea
45:49to make a big deal out of this now.
45:52The disposal is over,
45:55and the legal disposal is over.
45:58So I have to explain this,
46:01but I can't go back to the beginning
46:04and do it again.
46:07I think it's important to have a framework
46:10where we can discuss the future
46:13of the political funds
46:16and the state of affairs.
46:19I think it's important to show that
46:22we're heading for reform
46:25with that kind of thing.
46:28You're not talking about
46:31dismissing the current deputies again.
46:34In other words,
46:37no one will be satisfied
46:40with the policy of the political funds
46:43that was established in June.
46:46There are a lot of problems.
46:49If we can discuss it,
46:52we can say that we will make it.
46:55I think there is a way to do it.
46:58Mr. Ito, what do you think?
47:01The problems of politics and money
47:04will always occur once every few decades.
47:07What's behind that?
47:10The response to the Kishida administration
47:13was too small.
47:16I think it's a good idea
47:19to have a broader discussion
47:22with the election committee
47:25or with a private minister.
47:28If we can show the direction
47:31of the work to be reviewed,
47:34I think there will be some answers.
47:37He did it when he was a member of the House of Representatives.
47:40You two have seen it a lot.
47:43That's all for today's special.
47:46After the commercial break, it's time for the market.
47:58Next, we will hear from Professor Harutaka Takenaka
48:01of the University of Tokyo University.
48:04He will tell us about the election.
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