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00:00We're going to talk more about the Prime Minister's speech now with French politics expert Renaud
00:04Foucault, who joins me live. Renaud, let's start with what Clovis was just saying there at the end
00:09a moment ago. How big do you think the shadow of the far right is really hanging
00:13over the speech from the Prime Minister today?
00:16The shadow is everywhere. So last week has been mostly placating far right ideas with the
00:22Interior Minister Bruno Rotailleau trying to tell the far right, look, we're on your side. So there
00:27have been a lot of populist vibes about migrants, cutting emergency medical aid for migrants,
00:34the rule of law and things like that. So this is because today Barnier will have to make a very
00:39difficult announcement, in particular in terms of taxation. There is a big gap in the public
00:44finance. He has to increase tax or to cut spending. Cutting spending will be very hard because,
00:50again, he needs to satisfy the far right. So he needs to make sure that the far right somehow
00:55feels happy to continue to support him despite having to increase taxes. And the only way
01:00will be to tell a lot of big, big, big things about security migration, because in the end,
01:06this is only the far right who can support his government.
01:09And do you think that the rest of France will react well to this speech, particularly if it
01:14comes to raising taxes? I mean, who particularly is going to be targeted by this tax hike?
01:20He's been very careful trying to say this will be about those who have the broadest shoulder.
01:24The truth is that Macron's deal in 2017 was that he was going to cut tax on labour and increase
01:30taxation and pollution to compensate. If you remember the yellow jackets, the carbon taxation
01:35never happens. And that's where the gap is. So Barnier will need to revert some of the tax cuts.
01:41Some of it will be on business. Some of it will be on, I guess, labour income of those with the
01:47broadest shoulders. So depending on how people perceive themselves as middle class or upper class,
01:52this will be typically, I think, upper middle class and middle class earners who are also,
01:56incidentally, people who would be more likely to vote for people like Michel Barnier in normal
02:01times. But then what about the other side of the opposition, the left? How are they likely to react?
02:06Because it sounds like for many people amongst the opposition, that actually might be something
02:10that suits them. For the people in opposition, I think they are out of the game. They've already
02:16announced that they will table a vote of no confidence. Perhaps it will come as a surprise.
02:20There are two surprises I might expect. The first thing is that Barnier's taxation might
02:24be more progressive. So for instance, he might announce something on taxation of capital or of
02:29wealth, which is something the left has been calling for for a long time. And also something
02:34I've been quite surprised to hear is that Barnier is teasing some big announcements on ecological
02:39debt. So will he try to do some carbon tax again or to do something very left-wing of environmental?
02:45I'm not holding my breath, but this would be something that might surprise the left,
02:49although the left has already been so, so hard on saying this is anti-democratic. We will table
02:54a vote of no confidence that in practice, Barnier, his only hope is still to keep the far right on
03:00board. And also that's how he got the job. He got the job because Macron think he can make the far
03:04right happy. Now, if Barnier is giving this speech all about perhaps raising taxes, it's because,
03:10of course, the hole in France's public finances is worse than expected. Just to remind everyone,
03:14the budget deficit is at risk of topping 6% of output, which is far above what was
03:19estimated last spring. Just set the stage for us. How did France, Europe's second biggest economy,
03:25get itself into this position in the first place? Was it due to dropping that carbon tax
03:30after the Yellow Vest protests? I think this is a big part of the story, is that really Macron
03:35wanted to do a tax shift, but it's much easier politically to decrease some tax than to decrease
03:40some. It's not the first one. If you remember, François Hollande also had a plan to tax truck
03:45pollution. He had to cancel everything, costing billions to the state. The truth is that France
03:50has a very high spending level, and to sustain it, you need high taxes. There were a relatively
03:56widespread agreement that tax on labour was too high. But if you don't tax labour, you need to
04:00tax something else. I think that at the moment, Barnier's only possibility would be to tax labour
04:05again. Thank you so much for that, French politics expert Renaud Foucault.