Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Here in France, the Prime Minister, François Bayrou, looks set to survive a no-confidence vote in Parliament today.
00:06That's after he used special constitutional powers to push through, without a vote, a much-needed budget for 2025.
00:13Now, that same move brought down the last government late last year.
00:17And we're going to talk all about this now with French politics expert Paul Smith, who joins me.
00:21Paul, welcome. It's always great to have you on the show.
00:24Very pleased to be here.
00:26So, François Bayrou used this infamous French tool called the 49-3 or the Carleton of Troyes to push through the budget,
00:32just like his predecessor late last year.
00:34And yet, while the last government was brought down in the no-confidence vote, Bayrou, at the moment, looks set to survive.
00:40What changed between now and then?
00:43Well, in some ways, it was the fall of Barnier helped the situation.
00:50That might sound paradoxical, but of course, the response amongst the French public, particularly certain sections of the French public,
00:55was quite a forthright response.
00:59And it's very difficult for a country, even though France has laws in place to have a temporary budget, you still need a permanent budget.
01:05So that's the first thing. And it kind of woke people up a bit, particularly the political parties.
01:10So Bayrou, who's not the same kind of politician as Barnier, much more of a centrist, was able to make overtures to the left, not to bring them into government.
01:19That didn't work, although there are some former socialist ministers in his government.
01:23But at least to open up negotiations with the Parti Socialiste, the social democratic wing of the left, if you like,
01:30and to talk to them about concessions in the budget, to take the Barnier budget and make some changes and say,
01:36what do you think of that? Not necessarily as voting for the budget, but at least not voting against it through a motion of no confidence.
01:43And that's that's where we are now. We know we've got the budget through using 49-3.
01:49There's going to be a no confidence vote or a couple of motions this afternoon.
01:52But the socialists have said they're not going to support those. Indeed.
01:55Well, let's talk a bit more about what's exactly in this budget.
01:58I mean, Bayrou has agreed to provide certain things, for example, more public money for hospitals,
02:03committing to not cut some 4000 jobs and education.
02:06And perhaps the key thing here is he said that he was open to renegotiating that contested plan to raise the retirement age in France,
02:13from 62 to 64. I mean, can you seriously see that happening?
02:17Well, he seems to be serious about it and at least he's getting the social partners around the table to talk about it.
02:23But that will still be a hurdle to overcome further down the line.
02:27There are a whole series of important pieces of legislation,
02:31important debates where another motion of no confidence could still be an obstacle.
02:35It could still happen. And there are lots of players in the game, not just the left, but also the far right.
02:40So his government, Bayrou's government, is essentially an issue by issue, week by week basis.
02:47I was reading a commentary this morning that's kind of we're taking each fortnight as it comes.
02:52And that's very much how it's going to be between now and 2027 if this government gets that far.
02:59Let's talk a bit more about the far right, which, as you mentioned, said it will not support this no confidence motion either.
03:04So effectively backing François Bayrou. I mean, long term or even in the short term,
03:08is this far right support a good thing for Emmanuel Macron's centrist government?
03:13Well, it's not really support so much as not voting against the government.
03:17It's really, you know, the motion of no confidence is kind of a domestic affair insofar as it's up to each party to decide what it wants to do.
03:25And in fact, the the the national rally has been very divided about this,
03:29although Le Pen and the party president, Jordan Bardella, have talked about not voting.
03:34I know that some people, particularly one of the vice president, Sebastien Chinou,
03:37who's kind of seen as being one of the the the the tacticians of the party, has said that perhaps we should vote for it.
03:43Should we? You know, and even even if we don't vote with La France Insoumise this afternoon,
03:48there's another censorship motion coming up next week tabled by the socialists.
03:52And there's no guarantee that the the the national rally wouldn't vote that they've.
03:58But they've also got to bear in mind that they they have been unpopular as a consequence of voting down Barnier.
04:04With certain sections of the electorate, they so they need to be be careful as well.
04:09But they're also looking at their own agenda.
04:11What with the judgment of Le Pen coming up at the end of March in the the illegal financing of the party trial that she had to face.
04:22For many critics, one of the difficult things with the Francois Bayrou and the Macron government in general is what they perceive it as a veering toward the right,
04:29more and more toward the right.
04:31There was a very concrete example just last week when the prime minister used a word submerge,
04:36talking about immigration that translates to submerge, saying France is submerged in migrants.
04:41Now, that's language that usually is only used by the far right here in France.
04:45How big a risk is that for Bayrou to be seemingly aligned like that with the far right?
04:51Yeah, that's that that was ill judged.
04:53I don't know if he thought about it or if he deliberately said it.
04:56And that, of course, is one of the that's the reason the socialists are going to table a motion of no confidence next week.
05:02The motion of no confidence isn't just linked to 49 three.
05:05Any group can, so long as they've got enough signatures, put down a motion of no confidence.
05:09So they're going to table this this this alternative motion next week.
05:14And that that's still risky, because if the national rally, for example, decided to support that,
05:20unlikely because, as you say, it's the language of the national rally, but they could still cause a great deal of trouble.
05:25So it is very much this taking each each issue as it comes.
05:29That does that is the language of the far right.
05:32And it was a bit of a surprise when it came out, when he came out with that expression.
05:38And he needs to be very careful about managing a lot of very sensitive groups in Parliament.
05:44So it certainly sounds like it sounds rhetorically like a veering to the right.
05:49And there is going to be there is a timetable to a debate about immigration in France coming up.
05:55So it could really get very, very, very feisty, a very truculent debate, indeed.
06:02So that's that's a high risk strategy as well.
06:05All right, Paul, thank you so much for that.
06:07In the meantime, that budget did get pushed through and we'll see if Baird does survive that no confidence vote,
06:12as it's assumed will happen a little bit later today.
06:15Paul Smith, thank you so much.