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00:00Well, I'm pleased to welcome to the programme now to discuss the ceasefire Nomi Bar-Yakov.
00:05She's an associate fellow at Chatham House and she joins us now live from London.
00:10Good to speak to you today.
00:11Thanks for joining us.
00:13Thank you, Nadja, very much for having me on your show.
00:15Look, so far, largely speaking, this deal today is holding.
00:20Do you think it can continue to hold for the next 60 days?
00:23I think it's all a question of political power.
00:26And if there will be the political power, then it will hold.
00:30And it's not about the details of the ceasefire agreement itself.
00:34It's about whether Hezbollah and the Lebanese army manage to reach some sort of agreement
00:42whereby the Lebanese army is going to be allowed to take control over the south between the
00:47Litani River and the Israeli border.
00:50And it's a tricky relationship between the two.
00:52And Israel has made it very clear, abundantly clear that any minor violation, any violation
00:58of any kind.
00:59So if they said, if Netanyahu said on the record that if Hezbollah will try to, will
01:06start building a tunnel, if there's any digging, if there are any arms shipments that are addressed
01:13not to the Lebanese army, but to Hezbollah, or if any rockets are fired, that Israel will
01:18respond with full force.
01:19So I stress again, it really is a question of political will on the part of Israel, Hezbollah
01:26and what kind of relationship Hezbollah and the Lebanese army are going to strike.
01:32It's not going to be an easy one.
01:34And on that question of the Lebanese army, as you say, and as we saw in our report, Lebanese
01:40troops are supposed to deploy in areas along the border where Hezbollah previously was
01:46in control.
01:50Does the army have the capacity to do that?
01:54Because this is normally an area where we know Hezbollah fighters have operated and
01:58actually the Lebanese army hasn't particularly had a lot of influence there in the past.
02:03No, that's an understatement, Nadia.
02:06The Lebanese army has not been able to operate in the area at all between the Litani and
02:12the border with Israel, given that Hezbollah had full control.
02:17So now that Hezbollah has been dealt a significant blow, both military leadership has been decapitated
02:25and political leadership, and much of its military arsenal has been destroyed, many
02:32tunnels too.
02:33But Israel is going to monitor very, very closely.
02:36Israel has said that under the agreement they cannot attack unless they're retaliating for
02:42a violation, but they did say they will continue surveillance from the air.
02:47So I think the monitoring will be very, very, very close.
02:53And I would assume that there would be violations, and there always are violations of ceasefire
02:57agreements, and then comes into play the role of France and the U.S., and the question is
03:02what kind of monitoring mechanism is actually set up in order to deal with violations in
03:09a way that they will be dealt with in a non-military, non-escalatory fashion.
03:15And that's, again, another tricky area.
03:17So you've got both a tricky relationship between the Lebanese army and Hezbollah.
03:21I mean, I think the Lebanese army will find it very difficult to disarm Hezbollah, and
03:28under the agreement Hezbollah cannot be armed.
03:30The only arms can belong to the Lebanese army.
03:35And I foresee, I think a lot more investment is needed in that area.
03:40I think the Lebanese army is going to need significant help from the international community
03:45in order to ensure that it keeps the peace in the south and not Hezbollah.
03:53And on the role that the United States and France are now to play, of course, there won't
03:59be American or French troops on the ground.
04:01It is the Lebanese army and this UN force, UNIFIL, that will be in the south of Lebanon.
04:06But as you say, the United States and France will play a key role in implementing this
04:12deal, making sure it holds.
04:14Spell out for us what you understand that to be.
04:17Well, first and foremost, I'd like to say UNIFIL is the largest UN peacekeeping operation
04:21and it has not managed since 2006 to rein in Hezbollah.
04:29So Hezbollah has managed to rearm itself in an unprecedented fashion, literally under
04:36the eyes of UNIFIL.
04:37And I don't see that changing.
04:38I mean, I don't see, the mandate hasn't changed, 1701, the United Nations resolution that called
04:45on Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani and for the Lebanese army to deploy south.
04:51This is a 2006 resolution, which sort of comes on the heels of a previous resolution, a 1978
04:58resolution.
04:59It is going to be very difficult because, as you say, there are no troops on the ground
05:03and there are committees, there's a U.S.-French committee to which complaints are going to
05:08be filed.
05:09I reiterate, it's a question of political will.
05:11It's a question what Iran, Hezbollah, and are going to dictate because ultimately Iran
05:19calls the shots, Hezbollah has been dealt a blow.
05:23Iran and Hezbollah have asked for this deal.
05:26The deal was forced on Israel by the United States.
05:30Whether it will hold or not depends on that political will.
05:33As far as I can see, the monitoring system is weak.
05:35It is not a strong monitoring system.
05:38And the question really is, will the parties engage indirectly in political agreements,
05:47which we have seen before.
05:48We've seen it on the gas between, found in the Mediterranean Sea, between Hezbollah and
05:53Israel.
05:54Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon, so nothing really happens in the Lebanese
06:00parliament without Hezbollah's approval.
06:03And Lebanon is a very fragile country and it needs help.
06:07And I think it's very important that the French are present.
06:10Israel did not want any French presence, but Lebanon insisted on French presence.
06:16Israel insisted on U.S. leadership.
06:18And the relationship between the U.S. and France in 54 days, when President-elect Donald
06:25Trump is going to come in, is going to be very, very complicated.
06:29So a lot more effort needs to go in now, in these 54 days, into ensuring that this holds.
06:36Not only that it will hold for 60, now 59 days, 60 actually from today, but that it
06:41will hold long term.
06:44And a lot more needs to be done in order to make that a reality, in order to ensure that
06:49the cessation of hostilities turn into a ceasefire and ultimately, down the line, hopefully into
06:54peace.
06:55But for that, you need a Palestinian state, normalisation for Israel with other countries,
06:59but you need to end the wars everywhere, not just in Lebanon, principally in Gaza, with
07:04101 Israeli hostages that need to be freed.
07:08Still remaining, absolutely.
07:09I do want to ask you about that.
07:10Time is very tight, but just briefly then, where do you think this deal leaves the chance
07:14of an agreement for Gaza?
07:18My answer is very simple.
07:19It all depends on what kind of pressure the US is going to exercise on Israel, whether
07:24they'll exercise the same leverage that they exercised over Lebanon.
07:28Over Lebanon, over this ceasefire, they made it very clear that they will continue to withhold
07:33armed shipments to Israel unless Israel signs on the dotted line.
07:37And it was a take it or leave it.
07:39And the same has to be done for Gaza.
07:42Thank you very much indeed.
07:43Great to speak to you.
07:44Naomi Bar-Yacob talking to us there.
07:46She's from Chatham House in London.
07:48Thank you, Nadja.