Analisis Saham yang Banyak Jadi Sasaran Beli, di Tengah Pelemahan IHSG
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Jumat (11/10/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Saham yang Banyak Jadi Sasaran Beli, di Tengah Pelemahan IHSG."
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00:00What is the impact of the oil price?
00:05If we look at the oil price, it is now rising again above 3%, even 4%.
00:11And how is the opportunity for energy to become a supporter again from the opening of the ISG this morning?
00:16Before we continue with the summary, we will present some global economic agendas that should be taken into account.
00:22From the United States and the Federal Reserve.
00:25Then there are also several other agendas from countries such as the UK, Brutal Domestic Product,
00:32Consumer Price Index from Germany, Currency in Japan,
00:36Decision of Flower Tribes in South Korea, and Deficit Savings from India.
00:41Meanwhile, from the IMF, there is a meeting of shareholders from NIIS,
00:46then there is also RUPS from MTMH.
00:49And some other agendas, as you can see on the television screen,
00:54there is also a dividend from Metco and ASRA International.
01:00An update from the ASEAN Exchange for Nikkei, Japan, Shrek Times, Singapore, Shanghai.
01:06We mean KOSPI, South Korea, and Hang Seng, Hong Kong.
01:11We see that the exchange is moving in a positive direction.
01:18It is led by KOSPI, South Korea, which is slightly different from Nikkei, 0.46%.
01:32This morning, Mr. Kenji Putrachaya, Head of Business Development, PTFAC, Indonesian Securities, has joined us through video conference.
01:41Good morning, Mr. Kenji.
01:45Good morning, Mrs. Lisa.
01:47Good morning. Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Kenji.
01:50The price index of the joint stock market fell by 7,400 again.
01:54It's getting higher and higher.
01:56Yesterday, it was at 7,900.
01:58What do you think?
02:00Is it more driven by domestic sentiment?
02:03Maybe there is uncertainty?
02:05What will the new government be like?
02:07What will the ministerial ranks be like?
02:09Waiting for the 20th, maybe?
02:11Or is it also sentiment from the outside?
02:14If there is more uncertainty about the US stimulus package and so on,
02:19why does our IHSG tend to fall?
02:23Is this normal or what?
02:27Okay, so if we look at the sentiment for this October,
02:33it is clear that there is anticipation.
02:35Earlier, Mrs. Lisa has mentioned who will be elected to the cabinet.
02:42Of course, policies that are made will be awaited by business actors.
02:49Whether it's from the manufacturing industry and friends.
02:54I think for domestic, the crucial factor is there, Mrs. Lisa.
02:58So there is still uncertainty.
03:00Who is the person in charge who will be in charge of the policy makers?
03:07But from a macro point of view,
03:11let's say, the war in the Middle East
03:16is also a negative sentiment.
03:20And also for the US economic growth, which is not as expected.
03:25Even though the Fed has taken a stance on the flower market.
03:29This is still a factor.
03:32So the positive sentiment is still losing.
03:35If we look at the sentiments that are a bit uncertain
03:40or that make the market volatile, Mrs. Lisa.
03:43Okay, the sentiment so far is not negative, but uncertain.
03:47There are many uncertain factors there that are still awaited.
03:52Okay, if we choose one by one,
03:54we go through one by one about the most important sentiments at the moment.
03:59We see that Wall Street yesterday also tended to fall,
04:02although not too deep from its previous record in Rabu.
04:06Because of the release of inflation data in September.
04:11And also, if I'm not mistaken, about labor.
04:14How far will this be a catalyst for the Asian market?
04:19We saw that everything is still moving in a positive direction.
04:22Or is Asia currently a bit different from the US stock market?
04:28Okay, so we are also still waiting for the release of inflation data from the US.
04:35For the continuation, I think it's enough to be an important factor.
04:40Why? For the Asian market in particular.
04:43Because what we hope is that the Fed will continue to make policies
04:50or policies that they make that are more dovish.
04:53Because if they feel that they want to suppress inflation again
04:58and will make structural policies that may be hawkish,
05:03this will be a significant factor for the continuation of performance in Asian stocks.
05:13We hope for the US market,
05:16hopefully the overall economic growth is maintained,
05:19the level of inflation is also, although not in line with expectations,
05:23not to the extent that the margin is too far.
05:26Okay, but which is more dominant?
05:29I think the sentiment from the US is in the form of data that can be a catalyst for the Fed
05:35whether it will decrease the flower rate again in the November meeting later.
05:39Because about 80% believe that there is still a chance for a decrease in November,
05:44which is 25 basis points, they say.
05:46But 20%, and this is going up and down,
05:4820% may not be an increase,
05:52I mean a decrease, more of a stagnation, they say.
05:57But on the other hand, from Asia, there is also a big sentiment in the form of China
06:01which plans to launch a 2 trillion yuan fiscal stimulus.
06:04And the plan, or the expectations of the market players,
06:08will be announced on Saturday, October 12 by the Chinese Ministry of Finance
06:12in the PERS conference, which is highly anticipated.
06:15Which is more dominant right now, the sentiment to Indonesia?
06:20Okay, for the US market that we need to highlight,
06:25it's quite significant in my opinion.
06:28For the Fed, I'm still in the 20% position.
06:32I believe the Fed will still maintain the flower rate,
06:35so there is no increase in the flower rate,
06:37while they monitor,
06:39which means it can suppress further inflation,
06:42or not, based on the economic data that will be published later.
06:46For China, this is very interesting.
06:48Indeed, in the middle of the global market,
06:51there is also a war, there is also a conflict in the Middle East,
06:55the US market is still,
06:58let's say, in a sideways position right now.
07:03But China is calculating and giving a fiscal stimulus.
07:07And this, in my opinion, for the Asian market,
07:10especially the emerging markets like Indonesia,
07:13this is a positive sentiment.
07:15Usually, the most dominant is in the technology sector.
07:21So, a lot of business actors or market actors,
07:24they are usually triggered by the existence of fiscal stimulus
07:29provided by the Chinese government,
07:31and they will consider or even move
07:35for the business process,
07:37some such as manufacturing, and so on, to China.
07:41That's the opportunity.
07:43In Indonesia, what is the opportunity like,
07:45especially in the capital market?
07:47If, for example, it is really announced later
07:50how much fiscal stimulus will be released,
07:53it is expected to be around 2 trillion yuan
07:56at the end of this week,
07:57should we wait first,
07:59or can we expect it at the end of this week,
08:02based on China's decision later, or how?
08:04And what are the interesting things
08:06in the middle of the sentiment of this China stimulus?
08:11Okay. For the position of the investors,
08:16I think we should wait and see first,
08:18while we look at it more clearly.
08:19Okay.
08:20So, the support provided will support which sector?
08:26But what I think can be considered
08:28or can be analyzed,
08:30the energy is interesting.
08:32Commodities, especially why?
08:34Usually, because our relationship with China
08:38is one of the biggest in terms of commodities,
08:40of course, coal.
08:42Well, the emittance related to coal
08:46is also interesting.
08:48If we talk about China,
08:52crude oil is interesting, Marfisa.
08:54So, the emittance of crude oil and coal.
08:56In my opinion, we can monitor,
08:58the technical is quite okay,
09:00entering the level of support,
09:02we can calculate it well.
09:04Okay. Regarding coal,
09:06then also oil,
09:08especially the Middle East conflict,
09:10and now there is the Biden-Milton.
09:12In the United States, the price of world oil
09:14has increased by 4%.
09:16Earlier, the WTI, if I'm not mistaken,
09:18was at US$75 per barrel.
09:20Before that, it was only around US$73.
09:24So, today we play,
09:26or the lyrics,
09:28in the emittance related to energy?
09:32That's right.
09:34It will be shown in my recommendation today.
09:38It is still a short term for now,
09:40while we are waiting for the concrete.
09:43Which sectors will be given
09:47more stimulus by the government of China?
09:50Okay. In the middle of oil that emits 4%,
09:52supported by the United States and Israel-Iran war,
09:55as well as stimulus from China,
09:57which in your opinion is short-term,
09:59more attractive to energy,
10:01it can serve SAMSAM based on energy.
10:03What kind of SAMSAM from energy
10:05that you see the opportunity is still quite interesting,
10:10the increase is not too significant,
10:12so the range for gain is still quite interesting
10:17for us to make purchases?
10:22Okay, from me, from crude oil,
10:25why one of them is Medco Energy,
10:31I think with the interference of the input chain,
10:36related to crude oil,
10:38especially due to the current global conflict,
10:41this will be its own stimulus.
10:49Mr. Kenji, can you hear my voice?
10:52Yes, Mrs. Prisa.
10:54Yes, please continue.
10:56For Medco, what is it like?
10:58Okay, for Medco, it's quite interesting,
11:02from the macro side,
11:04the interference of the input chain
11:06will usually have an impact again
11:08with increasing demand,
11:10hopefully we can accommodate from Medco.
11:13For coal, PTBA, Mrs. Prisa,
11:19because the price range is still quite interesting.
11:22Okay, there are Medco and also PTBA,
11:24but Medco today is in the middle of the interim cash dividend,
11:27later we will write further
11:28how interesting Medco is in the middle
11:30of the interim dividend.
11:32Don't hesitate, Mr. Kenji,
11:33and also Mr. Mirsa,
11:34the recommendation of our choice,
11:36stay with us in the MarketBus segment.
11:38Thank you, Mr. Mirsa,
11:39you are back with us in the MarketBus segment,
11:42and we will discuss again
11:44with Mr. Kenji,
11:45and we will discuss the recommendation
11:47of the choices that we have summarized
11:49in the following graphics.
11:50Among others, Mr. Mirsa,
11:51there are stocks that some of them
11:53have already been sounded by Mr. Kenji.
11:55There is Medco,
11:56recommended trading buy,
12:00then there is PTBA,
12:02also trading buy,
12:03Astra buy on weakness,
12:04and there is Sido,
12:05swing trading,
12:07for the four stocks
12:09that we will review together.
12:12We start first,
12:13Mr. Kenji, from Medco.
12:16If Medco is in the middle of the interim dividend,
12:19based on the schedule of the Indonesian Stock Exchange,
12:21today,
12:23what is interesting,
12:24Sam?
12:25Do you see that this interim dividend
12:27may not be too,
12:28usually people are profit-taking,
12:30it will not be too influential
12:31because the price of crude oil,
12:34where Medco is also related,
12:37it is more dominant as a passenger.
12:42Okay, that's right.
12:43If we talk about habits,
12:47if the position is dominant,
12:50the market is usually profit-taking.
12:53But if investors
12:56who want to take a position for,
12:58let's say, trading,
13:01it's usually quite interesting,
13:02because the stimulus or sentiment
13:06globally,
13:07will benefit the emitters
13:10with energy relations,
13:11especially what I highlight is crude oil.
13:14So, indeed, for trading,
13:16we take a short-term position
13:18until the mid-term,
13:19this is still very good for Medco.
13:21Still very good.
13:22On the 7th or Monday,
13:24this is a stagnant,
13:25then 8, 9, 10,
13:263 consecutive days,
13:27in the correction phase,
13:28a week,
13:29more or less,
13:30the decline is 5%.
13:33The correct strategy
13:34in a stock with a pattern like this,
13:36how is it?
13:38For a pattern like this,
13:40we should wait
13:42to approach the support area.
13:44So, if he wants to support again,
13:47we usually take a position.
13:50But be careful
13:52to keep the stop-loss,
13:55because in case he breaks support,
13:58we have to be brave
14:01to be able to stop-loss first.
14:03Okay.
14:05What is the support level?
14:10For Medco,
14:11the support is in the 12.65 area.
14:1312.65,
14:14then the target price
14:15or the entry price
14:16is also in what position
14:17and resistant?
14:20Okay.
14:21For the entry price,
14:22the closing area is 13.50,
14:24if we look at it,
14:2613.35 to 13.50 can still enter.
14:29For resistance,
14:30in the 1480s area,
14:32from 1450 to 1480.
14:35Overall,
14:36if it's resistant enough
14:38to profit-taking,
14:40I think it's possible.
14:42Okay.
14:43That's Pemirsa's recommendation
14:44for Medco.
14:46Then we move on
14:47to your next recommendation,
14:49PTBA.
14:50You also recommend trading buy.
14:52How is the analysis?
14:55Okay.
14:56Entering the fourth quarter of 2004,
14:59the demand from neighboring countries
15:02increased,
15:03one of which is China and India.
15:05Before that,
15:06if we talk about the sentiment
15:08in a macro way,
15:10from the domestic side,
15:11we know that
15:13there is an implementation of MIP,
15:15Administrative Institution.
15:18It is predicted that PTBA
15:21will get a lot of benefits
15:23from the implementation of MIP,
15:26so I think the sales proxy
15:29of PTBA is quite large.
15:32This can get stimulus
15:34from this circumstance,
15:36from the domestic side.
15:38In terms of price,
15:39it is also interesting
15:40to be able to enter the range of 3000,
15:423000 to 3020.
15:44The target price is not too far.
15:47We aim for short to medium term
15:50at 3300.
15:53Stop loss or support
15:55in 2900,
15:57the target price may break
16:00if it has reached 3180.
16:033180.
16:05It's not too far.
16:08Short-term trading
16:10following the momentum at the moment,
16:12and indeed,
16:13after three weak days for PTBA,
16:15this morning there is hope
16:16with a strength of around 1%
16:18in 3060.
16:20And also Medco.
16:21Medco even has a higher opening
16:23this morning
16:24with a strength of over 1%.
16:27Earlier, my colleague and I saw
16:29that even now it is 2% at 1370.
16:32If we go back a little more,
16:34because when showing the opening
16:36of the second session,
16:37the first session, I mean,
16:391370,
16:41are we chasing Medco at that level?
16:43Because earlier you gave the support
16:44even lower.
16:46You said,
16:47enter the range of 1335,
16:50then support at 1265.
16:54If it's already at 1370 right now?
16:59It's still quite interesting in my opinion.
17:01So, because the momentum
17:03was technically okay,
17:07there are already signs of reversal
17:09usually in these areas.
17:11So maybe for friends or investors
17:14who just want to take a position,
17:16it's still very okay.
17:17Because the range target itself
17:20for Medco is around 1550.
17:22So, there is still a margin
17:24for Cuan, right?
17:26Okay, there is still a margin for Cuan,
17:28for Medco.
17:29And earlier there was also PTBA.
17:31Okay, if we look at the energy,
17:33you are more of a lyricist
17:34with the same commodities as before,
17:35there is Medco and also PTBA
17:37for short-term trading.
17:38As for ASRA International,
17:40today, if I'm not mistaken,
17:41is the interim dividend.
17:43Why do you recommend Buy on Weakness?
17:45And there is also Sido,
17:46we will go over it in the last segment.
17:48Mr. Mirsa, stay with us
17:49in the market bus segment.
17:51Thank you, Mr. Mirsa,
17:52for joining us again
17:53in the market bus segment.
17:54We go to the opening of the first trading session
17:56on Friday,
17:58where the Saham Kabungan price index
17:59on October 11, 2024
18:02was opened, Mr. Mirsa,
18:03in positive territory
18:04with a strength of 0.56%,
18:0641 points,
18:087,523.
18:11And before that, Mr. Mirsa,
18:13yesterday the IHSG was closed at 7,480,
18:15today it is back to 7,500,
18:18with the exchange rate of rupiah
18:19to the US dollar
18:21also weakening by 0.07%
18:23at 15,649.
18:27Next is the sector that leads
18:29this morning's strength
18:30is the property,
18:31which rose 1%,
18:32energy 0.92%,
18:34and several other sectors.
18:36The majority is moving
18:37in the positive territory, Mr. Mirsa,
18:39and only one sector today
18:41is moving in the negative territory.
18:43Then from gainers there is banking,
18:45BBRI rose 1.44%
18:47at 4,930,
18:49BUMI rose 4%
18:51at 136,
18:52Medco, which is a recommendation
18:54from Mr. Kenji earlier,
18:55rose above 1%,
18:571,365,
18:59BRMS rose 3%,
19:01Buka, then KOBX,
19:0313%,
19:05Elsa, then ICBP,
19:07and there is also ISAT.
19:08Losers, Mr. Mirsa, there is LIVE,
19:10GRIA, then there is FERN,
19:12TIES, DMMX,
19:14BULL, DSNG, MANG,
19:16and several other stocks.
19:18We continue the discussion
19:20with Mr. Kenji.
19:22Mr. Kenji, we see BUMI,
19:24then there is also BRMS,
19:26this is also experiencing strength,
19:28although it is not included in the recommendation
19:30of your preferred stock.
19:31But what is your analysis
19:33for these two stocks?
19:36Okay.
19:38For BUMI and BRMS,
19:40maybe I'm more focused on the technical,
19:42maybe Mr. Mirsa.
19:44For now, for BUMI,
19:46for those who mitigate the risk,
19:50for trading,
19:53I think for BUMI it can still be an option.
19:56So if it enters the area of
19:58130-135,
20:00and the market price is not too far away,
20:02in the 148 area,
20:04for thin trading, it can still be an option.
20:06Okay.
20:08For BRMS,
20:10Yes, please continue, Mr. Kenji,
20:12for BRMS, what is it like?
20:14Okay.
20:16For BRMS, the range is still the same,
20:18but maybe for the target,
20:20it can't be too far away,
20:22in the 286-290 area,
20:24for BRMS.
20:26In my opinion, BUMI is more attractive,
20:28Mr. Mirsa.
20:30Oh, okay, BUMI compared to BRMS,
20:32but more to short-term trading only.
20:34Fundamentally, you don't see
20:36anything interesting,
20:38but more to technical only,
20:40or short-term trading in these two areas.
20:42Like that, in the momentum of
20:44the price of oil,
20:46which emits energy.
20:48Elsa,
20:50earlier you were more to Medco,
20:52how about Elsa?
20:54This is also related to energy.
20:56For Elsa,
20:58in terms of price,
21:00after a long gapdown,
21:04still sideways,
21:06there is a chance
21:08if it can break
21:10in the 500 area,
21:12there is a chance
21:14to touch
21:16the next resistance level
21:18in the area around 5.50.
21:20But,
21:22that's the note, if it succeeds
21:24to break above 500 first,
21:26from the price side.
21:28If it can't break above 500,
21:30the highest level
21:32during this week is
21:34around 535.
21:36But, if it can't break above 500,
21:38maybe be patient
21:40in the Elsa stock,
21:42because the possibility
21:44is not there yet.
21:46That's right.
21:48Okay.
21:50We leave it
21:52about energy stocks,
21:54we move on to your next recommendation.
21:56Earlier, besides Medco, PTBI,
21:58you also recommend Astra,
22:00where the value of Astra's transaction
22:02this morning is also in the top 10.
22:06How interesting is the ASII stock
22:08in terms of interim dividend?
22:12Okay.
22:14In terms of sentiment,
22:16the interim dividend
22:18and also what we expect
22:20is why Astra,
22:22even if we talk sectorally,
22:24maybe there is no stimulus
22:26yet, let's say.
22:28Again,
22:30while we are waiting
22:32for the interview
22:34and also the cabinet that will issue,
22:36usually one of the
22:38hot property
22:40is the
22:42manufacturing sector.
22:44What policies will be brought,
22:46usually there will be some
22:48at least to
22:50stimulate in the short term
22:52which is even more interesting
22:54for the manufacturing sector.
22:56So, I think technically,
22:58that's why I recommend
23:00buy-on-witness.
23:02While we wait for the interview,
23:04we buy-on-witness,
23:06start saving first.
23:08Later, when there is more explanation
23:10about policies or even stimulus
23:12that has been detailed,
23:14I think there is a potential
23:16to reach the 5,300 area.
23:18This is a stock
23:20that if you want to save
23:22from now, this is the choice.
23:24If later the sentiment has begun
23:26to look clear,
23:28whoever the cabinet line
23:30from Prabowo Gibran,
23:32maybe this is a stock
23:34that the fundamentals
23:36will probably get better again.
23:38So, buy it at a reasonable price
23:40while it is tending to correction
23:42at the moment.
23:44So, when it's cheap,
23:46we can calculate it.
23:48Is there any support
23:50and resistance
23:52for KSEE?
23:56For Astra,
23:58the support area
24:00is 4,700 to 4,710.
24:02The resistance is
24:04still in the area of
24:065,170 to
24:085,225.
24:10What is the entry level?
24:14The entry level,
24:16if there is a further correction,
24:18I think the area
24:204,900 to 5,000
24:22at the beginning below 5,100
24:24is still interesting for Astra.
24:26In short, swing trade,
24:28Mr. Genji said.
24:30The next recommendation is Sido.
24:34Sido, as usual,
24:36in the second semester,
24:38the sales can increase,
24:40the cold season sentiment,
24:42so the production is also boosted.
24:44In the market,
24:46the product is quite attractive.
24:48So, the fundamentals are okay,
24:50there is a lower cost sentiment.
24:54For swing trade,
24:56the target price area
24:58is 800 to 830.
25:00800 to 830,
25:02more like swing trading.
25:04In short, Mr. Genji,
25:06before we end,
25:08tips for viewers at home,
25:10tomorrow there will be from China
25:12what is the situation like,
25:14maybe that's also the main topic today.
25:16Do you have any tips for next week?
25:22For the US market,
25:24I don't have any,
25:26maybe more to the investment data
25:28or the data from China.
25:30So, which sector
25:32will have a bigger portion?
25:34That's what I think we can highlight,
25:36and what impact emitters
25:38from our domestic side,
25:40and also property,
25:42I think the Chinese government
25:44is also fighting,
25:46so I think those two sectors
25:48can be an option to be monitored first.
25:50Okay, and those two sectors
25:52this morning,
25:54are the sectors with the highest
25:56power over property
25:58and also energy in the second position.
26:00Thank you, Mr. Genji,
26:02for sharing information and recommendations
26:04in the market bus segment this time.
26:06Hopefully it can be an investment reference
26:08in the future.
26:12Good morning, Mr. Genji.
26:14Good luck in the weekend.