IHSG kembali dilanda aksi jual masif hampir 2% hari ini. Dengan demikian, IHSG mengakumulasi penurunan 4% sepekan.
Lantas apakah pelemahan IHSG ini masih dalam kategori aksi ambil untung wajar mengingat telah menguat hingga rekor 7900-an. Peluang apa yang sebaiknya diambil ketika pasar saham sedang koreksi?
Lantas apakah pelemahan IHSG ini masih dalam kategori aksi ambil untung wajar mengingat telah menguat hingga rekor 7900-an. Peluang apa yang sebaiknya diambil ketika pasar saham sedang koreksi?
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TVTranscript
00:00Good morning viewers, welcome back to Market Buzz.
00:09The price index of the IHSK joint stock market
00:11fell by almost 2% at the end of our trading on November 7, 2024.
00:16The internal weakness occurred due to the concern of domestic market players
00:20will be affected by the victory of Donald Trump,
00:22from the general purchase of the United States,
00:24and the wait related to the certainty of the Bunga Deped tribe that was released last night.
00:31The price index of the IHSK joint stock market
00:34was closed at 1.90% to 7243.86 at the end of our trading on November 7, 2024.
00:44Intraday, the TCC1 opened flat at level 7383,
00:49the IHSK had moved to strengthen to level 7386.
00:54When it reached this level, the IHSK immediately reversed
00:57to the red zone that touched the lowest level at 7243.
01:02And it is the lowest level at least in the last few weeks.
01:07The IHSK weekly history has been cut by 4.36%.
01:12Only two sectoral indexes survived to the green zone.
01:16The property sector rose by 0.33%
01:18and the non-primary consumer goods sector rose by 0.07%.
01:23The sectoral index with the weakest point in the new goods sector was 3.47%.
01:29The technology sector fell by 2.33%
01:32and the financial sector fell by 0.97%.
01:37Meanwhile, on the same side, the Prayogo Pangestu PT Candra Asri Pacific TBK or TPIA
01:44became the largest bearer of the IHSK, reaching 31.9 points.
01:49The TPIA share was closed at the level of Rp6,700 per share,
01:53weakening by 11.55%.
01:55PT Barito Renewable Energy TBK or BREN contributed 14 index points.
02:01The BREN share was closed at the level of Rp6,000, weakening by 5.88%.
02:05Next, PT Aman Mineral International TBK or AMMN
02:10contributed to become the bearer of the IHSK 15 index points.
02:14The AMMN share was closed at the level of Rp8,700, weakening by 5.43%.
02:21The AMBROK IHSK reached the psychological level of Rp7,200
02:24in the middle of the WNC Investor related to the impact of Trump's victory
02:28as the next US president.
02:31Trump's victory made various assets at risk in the United States
02:35such as the stock market to the crypto market.
02:38Wall Street was closed in green and recorded Trump's past record
02:42of winning the US election.
02:45However, because of the potential of foreign investors
02:48from the domestic financial market to the US financial market,
02:52the domestic market was worried
02:54and finally started to release shares in RE.
02:58In the report, as much as Rp1.15 trillion of foreign funds
03:02came out of the RE capital market.
03:05Various sources, IDX Jarlan
03:11We will review POMI ERSA
03:13after the joint stock price index experienced a sharp weakness.
03:17What's next?
03:18Or what opportunities can be used by the next retail investor?
03:21We go to the first update from the Global Economy Agenda.
03:26From domestic POMI ERSA, there is car and motorcycle sales data
03:29Indonesia in October and year-on-year.
03:31Then Japan's visa reservation in October.
03:34Consumers' confidence in Thailand in October.
03:37Malaysia's unemployment rate in September.
03:39And India's visa reservation.
03:41Then from the United States, the POMC statement from the United States
03:44that we have seen earlier, the statement from Jerome Powell
03:48to the decision of the United States' inflation rate.
03:50From Europe, the meeting of the high-level leaders of the European Union
03:53and the German trade king in September.
03:56To the EMI10 agenda.
03:58And also the Indonesian stock market.
04:00Directly POMI ERSA Capital Market Summit and Expo or CMSE.
04:06Then there is EMI10 BC, Jati Akan RUPS.
04:09There is also Rote, Bekum Dividend Tunai.
04:12Then some other POMI ERSA stocks
04:14with a division agenda.
04:18We mean payment of cash dividends and also ex-cash dividends.
04:22An update from the Asian Stock Exchange this morning.
04:24It looks like a strong compact.
04:28Nikkei Japan rose 0.48 percent.
04:30Then Stratimes rose 1.13 percent.
04:33Kospi 0.75 percent.
04:35Hang Seng Hong Kong rose 1.22 percent.
04:38How big is the index of joint stock prices
04:40at the opening session this morning
04:42is also likely to rebound.
04:44We will discuss it this morning, POMI ERSA
04:47together with Muhammad Torik Padilla,
04:50research analyst from stocknow.id.
04:53Good morning, Mr. Torik.
04:55Good morning, Ms. Prisana.
04:57Thank you for joining us this morning.
04:59Let's go straight to the index of joint stock prices.
05:02Because Anjurok is quite deep.
05:03Almost 2 percent yesterday.
05:05Then the day before, more than 1 percent.
05:07It can be said that this is entering the downtrend phase.
05:10What do you think?
05:12Actually, if we look at the downtrend phase,
05:17it can be said, yes.
05:18Because the IHS is indeed in
05:21since the all-time high level
05:23at the psychological level 7,900.
05:25Unable to print the latest all-time high.
05:28So that it forms a downtrend area
05:32in a minor trend.
05:34And until now, it can also be said
05:36in a secondary trend,
05:39also experiencing a downtrend phase.
05:41So it's already in the sales action phase
05:45or profit-taking action by the market players.
05:47Then if we look at it,
05:49after the all-time high at 7,900,
05:52failed to be able to make the high
05:55technically and tend to contract until now.
05:59Especially in the trade yesterday,
06:01it was also the IHSK that penetrated the dynamic support area.
06:04The strongest dynamic support,
06:06using moving average 200.
06:08There is also a probability that the IHSK
06:10will test the next support
06:12at the psychological level 7,100.
06:15There is still room for support at 7,100.
06:19Where the IHSK has been stimulated
06:21more or less in the last 5 days
06:243.5%.
06:26And the year-to-date report is also red.
06:29Becoming minus 0.4%.
06:31Whereas this year, it was the highest record at 7,900.
06:34You just mentioned that maybe
06:36even though we are in the downtrend phase,
06:38but is it normal when we are already at 7,900?
06:41More than 7,200 years ago,
06:43from the world exchange and other Asian exchanges,
06:45we always set a record
06:47when it comes to training from
06:49President Prabowo Subianto yesterday,
06:51then now profit-taking.
06:53But the profit-taking is quite far,
06:55to 7,200, do you think it's quite normal?
06:57Actually, if we look back,
07:00actually, market players tend to be optimistic
07:03towards developed countries like America,
07:06where Donald Trump's views,
07:08as well as on the other hand,
07:10with the abolition of the flower tribe,
07:12and the ongoing Gagaukan Reflection,
07:14it makes market players feel optimistic.
07:17Why?
07:18It can be said that market players
07:20tend to start investing again
07:22in developed countries,
07:24and start leaving the energy market
07:26like Indonesia.
07:27So indeed, actually,
07:29for the last month,
07:31it can also be said that the IHSK
07:33tends to be in a downtrend,
07:35followed by net sales
07:37done by foreigners
07:39reaching 6 trillion rupiah.
07:41Okay.
07:42So you see,
07:43when there was still uncertainty
07:45in developed countries
07:47like the United States,
07:49they brought it to the emerging markets
07:51like Indonesia.
07:52When there was certainty,
07:53they returned to their country like that.
07:55But besides what you said earlier,
07:57there is an opportunity for the IHSK
07:59to support 7,100.
08:00What next?
08:01What must investors do?
08:04Mr. Torik.
08:06If we look at it again,
08:08if we look at it,
08:10there is a probability
08:12that the IHSK will support
08:147,100 psychologists.
08:16Of course, I am evaluating
08:18for further diversification.
08:20Diversification?
08:21Yes.
08:22Moreover,
08:23maybe from all friends
08:25who want to try to buy stocks
08:27when the IHSK is in a downtrend,
08:29my advice is to buy on weakness
08:31for Samsung,
08:33maybe Samsung Bank,
08:34infrastructure,
08:35or the customer sector.
08:36Okay.
08:37Before we move on to diversification,
08:39what is interesting,
08:40even though you have mentioned
08:42the sector,
08:43there is a positive sentiment
08:45where the potential
08:47of the UMP 2025 is increasing,
08:49but the size is not clear
08:51whether it is significant enough
08:53or not too high.
08:55How far do you think
08:57this will be a catalyst
08:59for the domestic market?
09:00Or do you see that the external sentiment
09:02is still more dominant at the moment?
09:05If we talk about the increase of the UMP,
09:08it is actually a positive sentiment.
09:10Because after,
09:12it can be said,
09:14in 2023 or 2024,
09:16the increase was not as significant
09:18as in previous years.
09:20If we say,
09:22is this increase of the UMP
09:24able to be a positive sentiment
09:26for the market?
09:27Of course, yes.
09:28We are still on a short-term scale.
09:30Because, again,
09:32the market players' euphoria
09:34still tends to be in the United States.
09:36Okay. You see the euphoria
09:38in the short term.
09:39But usually,
09:40what sector will be affected
09:42by the increase of the UMP?
09:45Again,
09:46with the focus
09:48mostly of teachers
09:50or employees,
09:51it can also be said
09:53that the banking sector will also be affected,
09:55the industry sector will also be affected,
09:57and the infrastructure sector
09:59will also be greatly affected
10:00by the increase of the UMP in 2020.
10:02Okay.
10:03In the middle of the massive AXINET sale
10:05that hit the index of joint stock prices,
10:07yesterday,
10:08Sam Antam, Pegas, Indovit,
10:10those stocks became the top net buy.
10:12Roughly,
10:13what makes these stocks
10:15attractive to foreign investors?
10:17And which one do you recommend
10:19from the three highest top net buy stocks
10:21in our trade
10:23yesterday when IHS was shut down?
10:27Okay, good.
10:28If you look at it,
10:29indeed,
10:30from many stocks
10:32that can be said to be
10:33suggested by foreigners,
10:34especially Big Banks,
10:35there are, it can be said,
10:36there are three stocks
10:37that actually do a lot
10:39of good AXINET
10:40done by foreigners,
10:41namely Pegas, Antam, and Indovit.
10:44I assess that
10:45actually,
10:46from the three stocks,
10:47it still has
10:48a fairly stable financial performance.
10:50So, it can be said,
10:52traders are generally
10:54optimistic about stocks
10:56such as Pegas, Antam, Indovit.
10:57Because indeed,
10:58seen from
11:00historical financial reports,
11:02in terms of quarters or years,
11:03it still moves
11:05quite stable,
11:06looking at the financial performance.
11:07It even tends to experience
11:09an increase in financial performance.
11:11Well, for example,
11:12if you look at
11:13what my recommendation is
11:14about
11:15those three stocks,
11:16of course,
11:17I recommend two stocks,
11:19Pegas and Antam,
11:20which of course I will also discuss later,
11:22along with
11:24recommendations from StockMobile.id.
11:26So, indeed,
11:27Antam and Pegas
11:29are in my recommendation category.
11:31Okay, today, Antam and Pegas
11:32are in the selection category.
11:34And also, you mentioned earlier
11:35that there may be banks as well.
11:36But we will discuss that
11:38in the next segment later,
11:40in the selection.
11:41Well, the latest,
11:42Fedpanka Sukubunga 25 basis points.
11:44Actually, according to the projection,
11:45in the near future,
11:46this may also be
11:47the main driver
11:49of the banks
11:51that have fallen,
11:53there are several that have fallen
11:54quite a lot.
11:56Okay, if you look at it,
11:58back again,
11:59it was also discussed earlier
12:00about the Fed,
12:01Pegas Sukubunga,
12:0225 basis points,
12:03is now in the range of 45
12:05to 75 percent.
12:07This cut is also considered
12:09if there is an invasion
12:11towards the target of the Fed
12:12in the range of 2 percent,
12:13and the stability of labor
12:15which can be said to be quite good too.
12:17On the other hand,
12:18it can be said
12:19that the economic policy
12:20carried out by the President-elect,
12:22Donald Trump,
12:23which he will try
12:24to maintain the inflation rate
12:26by lowering Pegas Sukubunga.
12:28Although it can be said
12:30that President-elect Donald Trump
12:31cannot be directly involved,
12:33because there must be a commitment
12:35from the Federal Reserve or the Fed.
12:37Well, if you look at it too,
12:39will it affect
12:40banking in Indonesia?
12:42I think it seems
12:44not yet affected,
12:45because it is indeed seen again
12:47that the IRS
12:48is still holding Pegas Sukubunga.
12:50Pegas Sukubunga is in the range of 6 percent.
12:52So there needs to be
12:54a new move from the Bank of Indonesia
12:56to cut Pegas Sukubunga
12:58in Indonesia further,
13:00so that it can be said
13:02that the banking sector is back.
13:04Okay, but Mr. Torik sees
13:06there is an indication
13:08that the expectation of decreasing Pegas Sukubunga
13:10which was previously bubbling,
13:11there is a chance
13:12quite aggressive,
13:13the weakness.
13:14It seems that now
13:15the aggressiveness is considered
13:17to ease,
13:18and the winner is Trump.
13:19In short,
13:20what is your image
13:21for the next Fed policy
13:23considering that Jerome Powell
13:24also did not give a clue
13:26about it last night.
13:29Actually, we look back
13:30at the policy of the economy
13:32in the latest president,
13:34which is Donald Trump,
13:35because there are a lot of analysts
13:37or economists
13:38who can be said to challenge
13:40a lot of pros and cons
13:42in the policy.
13:43We wait and see, right?
13:44That's right.
13:45Okay.
13:46Because this has not yet been
13:48discussed,
13:49some say it will be positive,
13:51some say the possibility
13:52will not be too positive.
13:54Let's just wait
13:55for the next policy
13:56from Donald Trump.
13:58Recommendations and choices
13:59we will present
14:00after the premiere
14:01stay with us
14:02on MarketBus.