"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Senin (23/09/2024) dengan Tema Analisis Sentimen Pendorong Utama Koreksi IHSG."
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00:00POMI ARUSA
00:05POMI ARUSA will be held on Easter,
00:08at the end of last week,
00:11as part of the Indeks Harga Samgabungan at the beginning of this week.
00:14We will go through the agenda,
00:16but before that, let's take a look at the Economic and Emitting Agenda.
00:19The Global Economic Agenda is from Europe,
00:21in the form of the Indeks Manager Pembelian Sona Eropa in September,
00:25and several other agendas of POMI ARUSA.
00:27You can see all of them on the screen.
00:32Let's move on to the Emitting Agenda.
00:34From MSEN, there is the RUPS Information,
00:37then MNCDigital Entertainment,
00:40this is the RUPS Information,
00:44the link of the RUPS Information,
00:47and also several other emitters,
00:50such as IKBI, EAST, and also BTON.
00:55EAST is the date of the cash dividend.
01:00Let's move on to the ASEAN Stock Exchange update this morning.
01:02Is POMI ARUSA still in the act of profit-taking, or vice versa?
01:09IKJepang is closed, while Singapore's and KOSPI Korea's
01:12short-term interest rates are rising,
01:14but POMI ARUSA is still in the act of profit-taking,
01:16and Hong Kong's interest rate is down 0.12%.
01:19It looks like there is a possibility that the IHSG
01:21will also continue its correction this morning.
01:23To discuss POMI ARUSA further,
01:25we will have Mr. Reza Priyambada,
01:28Director of PT Reliance Securitas Indonesia TBK.
01:31Good morning, Mr. Reza.
01:34Good morning.
01:36Thank you for joining us this morning, Mr. Reza.
01:39After many ups and downs,
01:42and there is an opportunity to reach 8,000,
01:44it turns out that the IHSG at the end of last week
01:47said it was in the act of profit-taking.
01:49If it is said that the main cause is the 20% decline in the brand,
01:53is it really true, Mr. Reza?
01:55Or what is it like?
02:00Yes, thank you.
02:01So, if I look at the movement of the IHSG,
02:05when there are a lot of market players,
02:07then a lot of analysts,
02:09even a lot of traders who think that
02:11the IHSG will go up to 8,000,
02:16then the opportunity for the IHSG to reach that level
02:22actually starts to decrease.
02:25Because we see the position of the IHSG
02:27which is at the current level,
02:30moreover, it has touched the top of the psychological resistance level,
02:33above 7,700, even past 7,500,
02:37actually provides an opportunity for profit-taking.
02:41With the news that the brand is not included,
02:47this gives an opportunity for the IHSG to experience weakness.
02:53So, the market players use the news for profit-taking.
02:57With the weakness of the brand,
03:01where it can be said that the market cap of the brand is quite dominant,
03:08where in the IHSG,
03:10this actually makes the IHSG start to decline
03:13and also contribute to other market cap stocks.
03:18Okay, if we talk more about the brand,
03:20this brand came out of the FTSE index
03:22because it did not meet the Free Float requirements,
03:24only four holders of stocks that control 97% of the total stocks issued.
03:30To what extent is this considered something that is not good,
03:39according to the FTSE index?
03:42That's why this brand was released, Mr. Reza?
03:47Yes, actually, if we look at the data,
03:53they say that based on the daily data per 19th of September,
03:59the number of stocks that meet the Free Float requirement,
04:01if not mistaken, they said it was 15.6 billion,
04:06or equivalent to 11.66%.
04:10Then, if it is related to the percentage of ownership,
04:16indeed, if we look at the ownership of the IHSG stocks,
04:21this depends on the holder,
04:24so there is a majority holder, there is also a minority holder,
04:28the priority is owned by the Pacific Government,
04:32TBK or BRPT,
04:34then the rest is owned by the other party.
04:37I think if it is related to the ownership of the stock,
04:42it is actually purely from the IHSG itself.
04:47Then, on the other hand,
04:49related to the evaluation from FTSE,
04:54or in other words, from the Pacific Index,
04:59there are also certain criteria.
05:07Brands in the FTSE index are due to Free Float,
05:13so maybe there are certain criteria from FTSE,
05:16which M1010 is their Free Float.
05:19But if I think with the explanation given by the brand,
05:25I think this is a positive proof
05:31that this brand has actually carried out its IHSG practices well.
05:38In other words, their Free Float number is already above 10%,
05:44then the ownership in the public sector is also quite large.
05:50Okay, but Mr. Reza,
05:52we think this is related to only 4 stockholders
05:55who control 97% of the total stocks issued.
05:59What is the impact when an M1010 phenomenon turns out to be like this?
06:07Like this brand, which only has 4 stockholders who control 97% of the total stocks issued.
06:17Yes, so in the market model,
06:23it is said that the controlling party is basically above 51%.
06:32But if we look at what Mrs. Prisaka said earlier,
06:3797% is a combination of the four.
06:43That's why I said that the majority is still owned by the BRPT.
06:48So if we say who controls the brand,
06:51it's actually the BRPT.
06:54Because sometimes their ownership per 19 September,
06:59which is based on their own, is actually 64.6%.
07:06That's as a controller.
07:08Meanwhile, the rest, the other 3 stockholders,
07:13including the 4 stockholders you mentioned earlier,
07:17are actually not the controllers.
07:19This is what the public needs to clarify,
07:26that 97% is a combination of the 4 stockholders.
07:33The controlling party of the brand is still the BRPT.
07:40So actually the other 3 stockholders are actually part of the public.
07:44That's why if we look at 95%,
07:50but on the other hand, it's 11%.
07:54So the other 3 stockholders, if I'm not mistaken,
07:57are the BRPT, Jupiter, and so on.
08:00They are part of the public.
08:03And they are not the company's controllers.
08:05Okay. We will discuss more about this brand in a technical way.
08:09Then, what are the fundamental indicators?
08:15Don't miss it, Mr. Mirza and Mr. Reza.
08:18We will be right back.
08:20Thank you, Mr. Mirza.
08:22We are still with Mr. Reza Priyambada,
08:24Director of PT Reliance Indonesia Tbk,
08:27discussing the weakness of some brands,
08:29which is ARB 20% in the trading on Friday,
08:32which also limits the weakness of the index of joint stock or IHSG
08:35in the field of profit taking.
08:37Okay. What are you actually worried about
08:40if it turns out that this brand is only 4 stockholders
08:44who are the controllers,
08:46like the information circulated on Friday?
08:50What are you actually worried about?
08:53Yes, so what I'm actually worried about
08:57is related to liquidity.
08:59Liquidity from the movement of some brands.
09:05Why?
09:06Because if we look at it in general,
09:10the movement of some brands
09:15is seen as their liquidity.
09:19Meanwhile, the perception in the community
09:24or in the public
09:26is that the controllers of this brand
09:29are only 4 of the largest stockholders.
09:35So the perception that arises is that
09:37this brand is not liquid.
09:39That's what I'm worried about.
09:42Because there was a misperception from the elite.
09:49Okay.
09:50But what is your own analysis
09:55for this brand share?
09:58What is the recommendation like?
10:04Actually, if we compare it to Sundar Metal,
10:08during the first semester,
10:10there was a slight decrease in their share.
10:15Both in terms of income
10:18and in terms of stock.
10:21Although it is still in the stock market,
10:23there is indeed a slight decrease.
10:25But if we talk about the prospects for the future,
10:29it means that the prospect of renewable energy
10:33that is done by this brand
10:35should be able to have a positive impact in the future.
10:38Especially if there are many factories,
10:42many companies that are starting to divert
10:45the source of renewable energy.
10:49Then, as one of their partners
10:56to become a source of renewable energy,
10:59maybe it will give a positive impact to the brand itself.
11:04Okay.
11:05With a share of 617, right?
11:11Yes.
11:13What is the recommendation for the brand
11:15when it drops to 20%?
11:19If we compare it to one of the ratios,
11:28like the price-to-earning ratio,
11:30their price-to-earning ratio is very high.
11:33But it's back to the public,
11:37to the investor.
11:41Because sometimes they don't make one of the ratios
11:48or the fundamental factor
11:50to be the only indicator to enter the sum.
11:55That's why I said earlier that liquidity in the sum is very important.
12:01Because the market players are looking for liquid sums.
12:07Even though the fundamental performance is not very good,
12:13but as long as the sum is liquid,
12:15it may be a choice of the market players.
12:18Because they see that liquidity is what exists at that time.
12:23While the fundamental history is more to the past.
12:29Okay.
12:30Mr. Reza, do you recommend this brand share to be bought?
12:34Because it is indeed a liquid share,
12:36but the volatility is quite significant.
12:38What are the recommendations and strategies for investment in this share,
12:43according to Mr. Reza?
12:49For the brand,
12:51if we look at it technically,
12:56it is currently experiencing a decline.
12:59But if we look at the decline,
13:03maybe we will see support at the level between 8,250 to 8,300.
13:14That is the support that must be maintained by the brand.
13:17Then we hope that by improving the sentiment at the moment,
13:24the brand will be able to rebound.
13:27With the next resistance target,
13:30it is expected to reach a level between 9,300 to 9,450.
13:389,300 to?
13:429,450.
13:439,450.
13:44Buy on weakness, right?
13:46Buy at a low price, right?
13:47Yes, if the price is low.
13:49Okay, that's it for Brad's analysis and recommendations.
13:52How about the price index and the combination?
13:54We saw that Asia is generally weak,
13:56then Europe is also weak,
13:57America is stagnant.
13:59Last week, even though Dow Jones broke the record again.
14:03Will IHSG continue to make corrections at the beginning of this week?
14:07And what should be done by investors, especially retail?
14:12Yes, if I tend to wait and see,
14:15in the current condition,
14:17because we see that the IHSG weakness is quite deep,
14:21then also from the existing sentiment,
14:25the macroeconomic condition,
14:27especially the movement of global companies,
14:30is also quite supportive of consolidation in the IHSG.
14:36Then we also still see
14:38whether outside brands can still support
14:44or be the IHSG resistance
14:47to not weaken deeper or not.
14:51Okay, there is still a possibility of weakness.
14:55That's why we have to wait and see where the IHSG is heading.
14:58After we see that it has begun to be controlled,
15:02then we take the opportunity.
15:05Do you want to buy or what?
15:07Like that, right, Mr. Reza?
15:09Yes, if I tend to be like that,
15:12meaning to see whether today the opportunity for weakness
15:16has begun to be limited
15:17or maybe there is still a possibility of weakness.
15:21Okay, so let's see what the market condition will be like today.
15:25At least, maybe until the afternoon session, right?
15:28Yes, that's right.
15:29Okay.