Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00When you get excited, when you get prepared, when you get ready for a college football season, you start looking at the calendar.
00:10All right, what are the great non-conference matchups early in the first two, three weeks of the year?
00:15All right, how about as we get deeper into conference play? Give me those traditional rivalries.
00:19But now in this new era of the sport, we've got some conference games that stand the test of time even in their first year in these leagues.
00:29And Joe, as you get ready for a new season, you circle the big weekends that you expect to be there, even as teams move up and down in the rankings.
00:38And that is still Saturday, October 12th. That is still tomorrow.
00:43And that is still week seven of this 2024 college football campaign.
00:48It does not get better, perhaps, than what we have tomorrow night in primetime under the lights inside Autzen Stadium.
00:56It is number two versus number three, the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes on the road in Eugene against the third-ranked Oregon Ducks.
01:06A three-and-a-half point spread now in favor of the Bucks.
01:11The Ducks have not been a home underdog since the 2018 season.
01:16So, Joe, I ask you, we call this game of the year, too.
01:20The first game of the year designation we gave was for a top-five tilt two Saturdays ago in Tuscaloosa between Georgia and Alabama.
01:29And it lived up to the hype.
01:31Will tomorrow night inside Autzen Stadium as well?
01:35It's so funny, Ben, because the market perception of these two teams could not be any different.
01:42You have Ohio State who, guys, let's be honest here.
01:46Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State, and Iowa.
01:52Not exactly the who's who of offensive juggernauts in college football here.
01:58Ohio State has not been put to the test in any way, shape, or form by anybody yet.
02:04In the meantime, Oregon, it seems like everything is life or death.
02:09Every game that they play comes down to the wire.
02:11But you know what?
02:12They're at home, and they're getting points.
02:15They are undefeated just like Ohio State is.
02:18So I don't get it.
02:20Don't forget, Dylan Gabriel a year ago was with Oklahoma, and guess what he did?
02:25Game-winning drive to end up beating Texas in a big spot, a big moment.
02:30And yet here we are, Ohio State not being tested by any real offense.
02:36This is the biggest offense, the biggest test Ohio State is going to have.
02:40I think that's a huge ask to them being a favorite to go to Oregon
02:45and win that game and cover because the hook is available.
02:49I'm not buying it.
02:50I think Oregon holds serve and wins this game.
02:53This year, Ohio State is 3-2 against the spread, of course, favored in all five games.
02:59They have been favored by at least 17.5 points,
03:02and they have covered in both of their two games so far in Big Ten action.
03:08I can't say the same for Oregon.
03:10They are 1-4 against the number.
03:12They have not covered in a Big Ten battle so far this season.
03:16And, Joe, you mentioned Oregon, and I would say they have been better up front
03:20the last two games.
03:21They have held both Michigan State and UCLA to 60 yards on the ground or less.
03:27But who is an offense, at least, rushing attack you could compare to Ohio State?
03:32To me, it's Boise State and it's Ashton Gente who put up 192 yards in Week 2
03:37and three touchdowns.
03:39Ohio State's got a pair of backs in Quenshawn Judkins and Travion Henderson
03:44alongside Will Howard, who has scored in both Big Ten games as well,
03:48four consecutive games on the ground, and albeit some great playmakers on the outside
03:53in Emeka Ibuka and Jeremiah Smith.
03:56Ohio State is the best scoring defense in the country.
03:59They're one of three programs that ranks top 10, scoring, total, scoring, total,
04:05offense, and defense.
04:07That's points per game scored and allowed and yards per game accrued
04:13and allowed as well.
04:15But, Joe, it's a really interesting spot as well as we compare these two teams.
04:19Ohio State is the favorite to win the Big Ten at minus 115.
04:23Oregon has the second-best price.
04:25It's really where these two teams enter the year.
04:27It's where they stand.
04:29They are two of four teams at a minus 800 price or better
04:33to reach the college football playoff.
04:35Will both programs be there at the end of this season?
04:40Yeah.
04:41I think that's what makes this year a little interesting is because
04:45whoever loses this game, it isn't the end of the year
04:49and a chance for a national championship because, ultimately,
04:52I do think both these teams will be in the college football playoff
04:57with a chance to win it all.
05:00A great litmus test, I think, for Ohio State more than Oregon.
05:04That's a huge ask and a play, Ben, that has been known
05:08for big home-field advantage for this Oregon team.
05:12Proven quarterback.
05:14This is a tough – if Ohio State wins this game, wins it convincingly,
05:19yeah, they are a serious contender for a national championship.
05:24Listen, this is a big moment for Ryan Day.
05:26It's his sixth full year at the helm in Columbus.
05:29They are 61-8 under Day.
05:32But all eight losses against ranked opponents.
05:34They're still 18-8 straight up against top 25 teams,
05:38but just 9-7 against the top 10.
05:40So seven of those eight losses under Day against a top-10 foe,
05:45third-ranked Oregon inside Autzen certainly lives up to that billing.
05:49Speaking of home environments in primetime,
05:53not many more difficult places to play than Death Valley
05:55and Tiger Stadium at night.
05:58LSU with Brian Kelly, 11-0 straight up in night games in Baton Rouge,
06:04and yet they're getting points as well in a top-15 tilt
06:08against Ole Miss tomorrow.
06:10Is the right side favored?
06:14I don't – yes, the right side is favored.
06:16Ole Miss is the better team.
06:18And listen, LSU has a very good offense.
06:22But you know what?
06:23Ole Miss's offense is better than LSU's.
06:26And you know what Ole Miss has?
06:29A really good defense.
06:30You know what LSU doesn't have?
06:32A defense at all.
06:34They are atrocious.
06:36And they're going to give up a trillion points in this game.
06:38If it wasn't for Kelly and LSU coming off a bye
06:42and his previous record coming out of byes,
06:45this number should be closer to a touchdown here.
06:49No way am I backing LSU.
06:51I don't care how many points they're getting.
06:53Ole Miss is the better team on both sides of the ball.
06:56They'll show it again against a extremely weak LSU defense.
07:01Ole Miss has been the favorite in all six games.
07:03They had the hiccup in a large way against Kentucky two weeks ago.
07:07But they have covered in all five of their wins,
07:09much better defensively than LSU is this year.
07:13Six of the last seven games have combined for at least 61 points
07:17between these two teams, total 62-1-1, the rest of the Saturday slate next.
07:22Live right here on The Early Line, it's a football Friday.
07:25That's more than the NFL.
07:27It's a Saturday slate in week seven around college football.
07:31Dylan Gabriel leading an overtime game-winning drive last year.
07:35And what game was that?
07:36The Red River Rivalry against Texas at the State Fair
07:40in the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.
07:42But now it's an SEC showdown.
07:45Number one Texas, 14-1-1 point favorite against 18th-ranked Oklahoma.
07:52It's a top-20 tilt.
07:53It's a rivalry game, and it's more than a two-touchdown spread.
07:58Joe, how competitive does the Red River Rivalry look tomorrow in Dallas?
08:03Well, Ben, this is, Ben, as you know,
08:05I have been to many of these games at the Cotton Bowl over the years,
08:11going all the way back to when it was a great Big 8 battle.
08:14I can tell you this, no matter what you think
08:17and no matter how bad one team or the other is,
08:20throw it all out the window for this game because anything is possible.
08:26Having said that, Oklahoma's terrible.
08:29They have, I believe, every one of their wide receivers is hurt, Ben.
08:34They're missing five injured wide receivers in this game.
08:37We also have a, what, a freshman quarterback here
08:41that I have no idea what you're going to get for him for Oklahoma here.
08:46I mean, Jackson Arnold absolutely went to the wayside
08:50and completely disappeared here this season for this team.
08:54They are very good defensively,
08:56which is what's going to keep them in this game here, Ben.
09:00Quiniers back after the oblique injury,
09:03but it's not like they went through a gauntlet to get here.
09:06UTSA, U.L. Monroe, Mississippi State, yay.
09:10Every one of them is terrible.
09:11Texas has one good win against Michigan,
09:15and that was back in September on September 7th,
09:18and Michigan ain't even that good.
09:20So I do think this is a big spot for Texas here.
09:24They need to not only win this game, Ben,
09:26they need to win it impressively, I think, moving forward.
09:31So it's too many points for me in this kind of game
09:34and what the history is between these two teams,
09:37but they better win this game, Texas,
09:39and win it convincingly.
09:41For sure, Joe, but it's going to be difficult to do
09:44because as you mentioned,
09:45it doesn't matter how bad teams look
09:47or what they appear to be on paper.
09:49This is the Red River rivalry,
09:51the 120th all-time meeting on Saturday,
09:55the first as SEC foes,
09:57but nine of the last 10 decided by a single score.
10:01In fact, five times in the last 12 Red Rivers
10:05have we seen a team lay double digits,
10:07and this is north of two touchdowns.
10:10Those double-digit favorites are 0 and 5 against the number.
10:14It's hard to win big,
10:16and it's hard to cover a two-touchdown spread
10:20in the Red River rivalry.
10:22Short number tomorrow in Los Angeles.
10:24Can USC bounce back after a disappointing defeat
10:28last week in Minnesota against the Golden Gophers,
10:32and can Penn State keep it rolling?
10:34A 5-0 start for the fourth time in the last four years.
10:37Can they make it 6-0?
10:39The Nittany Lions just over a field goal favorite
10:42in the Coliseum.
10:43Joe, how do you break down the matchup
10:45between the Nittany Lions and the Trojans?
10:48I can't think.
10:49This is, I've dubbed this,
10:51the battle of the two most overrated head coaches
10:54in all of college football, people,
10:56because that's exactly what you have here.
10:59Neither of these guys are worth their weight
11:02in any way, shape, or form.
11:03However, Ben, you had said it.
11:05We saw this 5-1⁄2,
11:08and we're now seeing, what, 3?
11:103-1⁄2s in the marketplace,
11:12so the money is certainly coming in late here on USC,
11:16and why not?
11:17We just, we could not have been less impressed
11:20with Penn State against UCLA last week.
11:23They didn't even rush for 100 yards in that game.
11:26Now they've got to fly out west
11:28and take on a USC team
11:30that has a ton of offensive talent here.
11:33I do think that 5-1⁄2 was way too much.
11:37I also think anything over a field goal,
11:39I think you got to bet USC here.
11:42I do not trust this version of Penn State.
11:45The market overvalues them every year,
11:48I think even more so this year, Ben,
11:50and you've seen what I've seen from them.
11:52I don't like what I see from Penn State.
11:55I don't trust them.
11:56They have not covered in both of their Big Ten games
11:59so far this season,
12:01although they did beat a ranked foe in Illinois,
12:04winning that game by two touchdowns,
12:06but they were a three-score favorite.
12:09Kansas State and Colorado.
12:11Listen, CU was one of the most bet-on teams
12:13to win any conference crown,
12:15and it's to win the Big 12.
12:17They're off to a 2-0 start.
12:18They're a home underdog tomorrow,
12:20now only getting 3½ in Boulder against K-State.
12:23Quickly, Joe, can CU pull off the slight upset tomorrow
12:27against the Cats?
12:29Who cares? Give me the over.
12:31Cash the ticket and go away.
12:32That's it. Just give me the over.
12:34No defense. Over.
12:36Very, very smart point.