• 2 months ago
Transcript
00:00Three weeks down in the college football season in 2024, including week zero, two full Saturdays
00:10of the entire country getting involved also in the book. So now that we enter week number three,
00:16midway through September, where are the odds in college football and the chase for a national
00:23championship? Georgia, the preseason favorite, they've seen their price shortened exactly by
00:2810 cents, plus 280 before the year got started, now plus 270. Ohio State had the second best price,
00:35still the same case at plus 350. But Texas has moved forward at a plus 550 number, third best
00:43number around the country. Part of that is the Longhorns dominance in Ann Arbor on Saturday
00:49afternoon. Part of it is Oregon struggling to start this year. The Ducks now tied for the fourth best
00:56price alongside Alabama at 11 to one. Joe, we'll look at Georgia and Ohio State who have been pretty
01:04good this year. Georgia, a test on paper against Clemson and ran them out the building in Atlanta
01:10week number one. But let's start with the two biggest movers, Texas moving forward, Oregon
01:16moving back. How much are you buying into Texas after what they did to the reigning national
01:21champs in Michigan on Saturday in the big house? Well, I mean, listen, there's, we knew the talent
01:28was there offensively. I think what we're underestimating with Texas and what people
01:34need to realize is that's a real defense, Ben, that to go there and to do what they did, and I
01:41don't care that it's rebuilding, make up whatever excuses you want for the offense of Michigan.
01:46It is never easy going on the road. You know what wins on the road? Great defenses. And that defense
01:52showed up and showed out. And I don't think we give them enough credit because of who the coaches
01:57and Sark and what they do offensively with Quinn yours and others. But the reality is if Texas is
02:04going to make a run at this, it's going to be the defense that's going to be a much bigger catalyst
02:11in it than it's necessarily going to be the offense because that defense is going to have to
02:15win them some games, tough games coming up on this schedule. And I think they can. When you really
02:21look at what Texas did on Saturday, what impressed me the most was not Quinn. You were in the offense
02:26with all the tools at his disposal. It was that defense for the Longhorns fourth, best rushing
02:32defense in the country, allowing less than 81 yards per game a season ago. But part of that
02:38was the two NFL draft picks they had in the middle, Byron Murphy, T Vondre sweat in both of those
02:44guys gone to the national football league. How would they replicate that success in the interior
02:50against the Michigan team that the entire handicap for a lot of people? Joe was good. Michigan slow
02:56down the game. Keep it under 41 and a half. Use that downhill rushing attack that had been the
03:01staple of Sharon more offenses because he is now the head coach. We almost forget he was the
03:07offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh and the old line coach that put together great in dominant
03:14offensive lines that over the past three years that resulted in three consecutive big 10 titles,
03:19college football playoff berths. And of course, last year, a national championship took it to
03:24teams, bullied teams. The idea was, could Texas answer the call? Not only did they answer,
03:31they brought the fight to Michigan. They held the Wolverines at 3.6 yards per carry, only 82 yards
03:37on the ground. That Texas defense is the difference. So now that brings us to Oregon.
03:44The ducks on paper should have got this year started in flying colors. FCS foe in Idaho
03:51inside Autzen Stadium score 70. They scored 24 winning by 10 only having a lead early in the
03:59fourth quarter coming nowhere close to covering as a seven touchdown favorite. All right. Odds
04:05makers expected the resilience of Dan Lanning in the ducks week number two in Eugene against the
04:12reigning Mountain West champs in Boise State, a Boise State team that allowed a lot of points
04:17against Georgia Southern in the opener. Could they even keep it closer than three touchdowns?
04:24The odds makers in the betting public expected Oregon to win comfortably. Oregon needed a walk
04:29off field goal as time expired to win 3734. And Ashton Gente is still running up and down the
04:36sidelines inside Autzen. Joe, what is your concern level for this Oregon team that entered the big
04:4310 with the second best price to win the conference and had the third best number
04:48to reach the college football playoff only behind the Buckeyes and the Georgia Bulldogs.
04:54So where we were wrong with Oregon was not from a talent perspective, right? I think what we did not
05:02see coming was how not good they are in the trenches here, Ben. Yeah, we're talking that
05:09they're not good on third down. They're not good in the red zone. Dylan Gabriel has been pressured
05:15on almost 30% of his dropbacks. And when you look at who they've played, you better fix that in a
05:22hurry before you get to a big 10 play. But I'll tell you this, the schedule is favorable to them
05:28because they don't play USC. They don't play Penn State. They will be double digit favorites in just
05:35about every game except for Ohio State and at Michigan. But quite honestly, I don't think
05:40Michigan can score on any quality team, including Oregon here. So they are going to be double digit
05:47favorites throughout the way except for that Ohio State game. They have to figure out what's going on
05:53on the offensive line. They'd better figure that out in a hurry. Otherwise, they're going to get
05:58caught in big 10 play. Oregon in 2023 allowed five sacks. It was the fewest amount, unsurprisingly,
06:06at the FBS level. Only Liberty, who allowed nine sacks, those were the two programs that allowed
06:12less than double digits. Oregon allowed five sacks in all of 2023. That includes the Pac-12
06:20title game. That includes the New Year's Six Bowl when they ran Liberty out of the ballpark,
06:26of course, as well. They have given up seven sacks already in their first two games of 2024.
06:34Three to Idaho, four last week against Boise State. And they've been getting gashed on the ground.
06:41Ashton Gente over 200 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon on Saturday. Where you thought
06:49the Michigan State transfer, Derek Harmon, Mateo Uyangalele, yeah, that's DJU's younger brother,
06:55would anchor that D-line. It has been anything but. So how about a road trip to Corvallis to
07:01figure it out in the renewal of the Civil War against the Spurn Oregon State Beavers,
07:07the Ducks, a 16 and a half point favorite up in Corvallis, which is a house of horrors
07:15for many a team trying to win a football game outright. Plenty more in college football,
07:21including the Heisman Trophy race next. Let's continue to look at the national championship
07:25odds, the tier of three at the top, and everybody else that rounds out the top 10. Our reactions
07:31from the first three weeks, but the first two full weeks in college football. Again, Joe,
07:36the tier of three at the top. We've got three teams with a three digit price at less than 11
07:42to one in Texas is half the next closest teams in Alabama and Oregon at an 11 to one price.
07:50You see Texas now in the AP poll has vaulted past Ohio State based on the impressive performance in
07:56Ann Arbor, but the Buckeyes still a better national championship price in the best price of
08:01all three of these teams to reach the college football playoff. All three, at least a $6
08:08odds on favorite to get to the CFP. Will all three be in the college football playoff at
08:13the end of the season? Yeah, it's going to be very hard not to see at least those three at
08:21the top and outside of maybe somebody playing spoiler in there, but we all know what happens
08:29with Ohio State, right? And ultimately always comes down to Michigan. And I don't think they
08:33have to worry about beating Michigan this year. The only wild card in that big 10 to me, Ben
08:40is, and I I'm shocked that nobody paid attention to him early, but they're paying attention to
08:46him now. And it's that little team on the bottom that you, you may call a USC and Lincoln Riley.
08:53All of a sudden now people are paying attention to Lincoln Riley and USC kind of absolutely crazy.
08:59Isn't it that it took this long for people to realize that Lincoln Riley's offenses can beat
09:05anybody, anywhere, anytime in any conference. We're going to see if they're as good as we think
09:10they are soon. Eight years for Lincoln Riley as a head coach at the FBS level six in Oklahoma to
09:18now at USC completed. This is year number three, but all eight seasons, his, his offenses have been
09:24top 10 in the country, six of the eight years inside the top five. And they pitched their
09:30first shutout against Utah state late on Saturday night inside Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for the
09:37first time since 2011. That's the key for me when it comes to USC. Now let's go to the individual
09:44race. That is the Heisman trophy odds. We have a new favorite Quinn Ewers, his price slashed in half
09:50and then some 11 to one entering week. Number two, now five to one, 246 yards, three touchdown tosses
09:57against the maze in blue. He has stepped up in every significant game that Texas has played last
10:03year, Joe five ranked opponents, Quinn Ewers faced for Texas through for at least 317 yards, averaging
10:10three 52 in those games, 10 touchdowns to four interceptions, not three 15 plus against Michigan,
10:17but against a really good secondary getting close to two 50 is a testament and did not turn the
10:23football over clean football. Three touchdowns is Quinn Ewers deserving in your estimation to be in
10:29the Heisman trophy front runner. Yes, he can, but he's not going to win it. You know, but he can
10:36certainly go up there. Uh, if you want to make money in the Heisman market, uh, get your money
10:42on cam ward now, uh, before it's too late before it's not going to be worth betting him anytime.
10:49I mean, listen, Quinn yards, outstanding stuff, but we always seem to know what a SARC team in
10:54Texas, something is going to go wrong at some point. It usually does, but cam war there in second spot,
11:01uh, to me is the guy that should be your front runner there. Given the fact that the state of the
11:06ACC and how this lines up for Miami and the schedule and what they've got going, this,
11:14this is going to be a top three or four seed in the college football playoff, uh, provided they
11:19understand clock management and Mario Cristobal doesn't get in a way. Otherwise cam ward, uh,
11:26is going to cement themselves. I think in a couple of weeks as the favorite to win the Heisman
11:31always a difficult thing for Mario Cristobal for this hurricanes program. That was 12 and 13 in
11:37his first two years, but now with how the ACC is playing out and how impressive they looked in the
11:43swamp, they are the favorites at plus one 15 to win the ACC cam ward did back up is three 85 and
11:50three touchdown performance against Florida with more than 300 yards, three touchdowns in his first
11:55rushing score of the year for four total TDs against the best team from Tallahassee. That's
12:00the Florida a and M on Saturday. Quinn Ewers has been really good. The statistical numbers
12:06are not overwhelming so far. Didn't have to do much against Colorado state. Texas has played
12:12two FBS foes to start this year, but he has been good in terms of those numbers. And what stands
12:19out to me is the five to one price to win. The Heisman trophy is actually shorter than Texas's
12:25number to win the national championship at plus five 50. The name to know though,
12:30of the Heisman trophy odds, it's Ashton Gente, 28 to one, the Heisman trophy winner through two
12:37weeks of this college football season. Hours three, our third and final comes your way up next.

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