NCAAF Best Bets: College Football Playoff Odds and Predictions
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00:00Welcome back to Newswire here on Sports Grid.
00:02What a fun weekend it was in college football.
00:04We've got a huge game coming up this week in the SEC.
00:08Let's bring in Bill Bender from Sporting News.
00:09Bill, you know, it was interesting,
00:10college football's day slate was about as poor as any
00:15that I can remember this season.
00:16You had the Red River Rivalry, which was not one,
00:18and then a bunch of junk, honestly, during the day.
00:21And then we got to the night, and my gosh,
00:24was this the most insane Saturday night
00:26between Ohio State and Oregon?
00:29LSU in their game, I believe it was against Mississippi,
00:33the Gators against Tennessee going to overtime.
00:35There were so many, Penn State-USC later in the day
00:39as well, I mean, I didn't know which way to go.
00:42I was like flipping, oh, should I go here,
00:43should I go there?
00:44And then some of the games were running over,
00:45I couldn't find the games.
00:46I mean, it was a fantastic weekend of college football,
00:49but all really within the same like two-hour window.
00:53Yeah, I had three TVs on too, and even baseball on.
00:56So I was all over the place and trying to figure out
00:58the remote controls, but once it got to that night window,
01:01you're absolutely right, and something to keep in mind.
01:04You know, with these top five games,
01:06we've seen it with Alabama-Georgia,
01:07we've seen it with Ohio State-Oregon,
01:09could see it with Texas-Georgia this week.
01:11Watch the overs, these are high-scoring games.
01:14We can talk about how much we love a team's defense,
01:16but these teams are getting up and down on each other.
01:19Yeah, they are, and again, the end to that
01:22Ohio State-Oregon game is all that's being talked about,
01:25and probably fair enough for good reason.
01:27First, of course, with Oregon putting 12 men on the field,
01:30I mean, the competition committee's gonna have to look at this
01:33because every other team is gonna try and do shenanigans
01:35like this at the end of the game.
01:37And then, boy, you know, I don't know what to say
01:40about the end of the game as well,
01:42just not having awareness there with the amount of time
01:44that was left there on the clock.
01:45But let's give credit to Oregon for winning,
01:47but also understanding that if, I don't know
01:51if Ohio State's kicker's any good, Bill,
01:52you'd have to tell me, but they probably would've had a shot
01:55for a 50-yard field goal to win the game.
01:57A couple things here, and I think the perception is
02:00they're gonna run it back in December.
02:01You can see that in the betting odds,
02:03reflected that Oregon and Ohio State
02:05are basically co-favored to win the Big Ten now.
02:07It was a great win for Oregon,
02:09but they leave 10 points on the board, in my opinion.
02:12Missed extra points, botched nap,
02:14you know, went for two and didn't get it.
02:16Had a player get ejected for spitting on another player.
02:19It was absurd.
02:20And then on Ohio State's side, you mentioned,
02:22you know, I've lived in Columbus my whole life.
02:24I know how it goes when they lose a game.
02:26We look at, we treat it like the Zapruder film.
02:28Was there a second left?
02:30Was this, this could've happened?
02:31They mismanaged it.
02:32I think it comes down to, Will Howard will learn from it.
02:35They need to trust their kicker in late game situations.
02:38You saw that with Georgia a couple years ago,
02:40and both teams will learn from it.
02:41But I do feel like they'll play again in December.
02:45Oregon, for sure.
02:46Ohio State's path's a little more complicated
02:48because they gotta go through Penn State on the road.
02:51Yeah, yeah.
02:52And I would also say, Bill, that, I mean,
02:54I don't know that it's as formidable as I thought.
02:56And you know, there's a lot of light out there
02:57for that game, I understand.
02:59Happy Valley's tough to play.
03:00But I gotta tell you, of all the teams near the top, Bill,
03:03I'm least impressed with Penn State.
03:04It seems like they're down to the wire
03:06in so many of these games.
03:07And you know what happens in college football like this.
03:10Eventually they get bit in the fourth quarter.
03:12I think they're fortunate to be where they are.
03:15Well, just the same, to come back from 20 to six
03:18on the road at USC, and we talked about that
03:20Pac-12 cross-country trend
03:22with the old Pac-12 schools last week.
03:25They were able to go out and get the win.
03:27I think Tyler Warren is a guy to watch this tight end.
03:29He reminds me of Mark Bavaro.
03:31I get that that's a dated reference,
03:33but you remember the Giants tight end
03:35that dragged the defenders forever?
03:36That's this guy.
03:37He's unguardable.
03:38And Drew Aller played through the mistakes.
03:41So, it sets up November 2nd,
03:43provided Penn State takes care of their business.
03:46They'll get Ohio State at home.
03:47They haven't beat the Buckeyes since 2016,
03:50a game that they won on a legendary
03:52blocked field goal by Grant Haley.
03:54And that will be that moment, Craig,
03:56where we really find out,
03:57is Penn State playoff worthy,
04:00national championship worthy, those kinds of things.
04:03But I'll give them a little bit of credit.
04:05In the past, they lose that game at USC.
04:07They did come back and got it done.
04:10Yeah, and even with two losses at this point,
04:12you would think they'd be in the back end of the top 12,
04:14almost no matter what happens with those big wins.
04:16Meanwhile, USC, boy, have they had some tough luck.
04:20Three losses by 13 points in the conference.
04:22They're not gonna make the playoff now, I don't think,
04:24but we'll look back at the end of the season, Bill.
04:26And maybe it's a good reminder for next year
04:28that USC should have had a little bit of better luck.
04:30They shouldn't have lost all these games.
04:32Well, they're gonna need to recruit differently up front.
04:35That's what it tells me.
04:35When you average over five yards per carry on defense
04:38against Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin,
04:40they did a little bit better against the run this week,
04:43but weren't able to close the game out.
04:45I don't think it means Lincoln Riley's on the hot seat.
04:48I realize that he's five and eight in his last 13 games.
04:51I've seen that stat circulate around this morning,
04:53but there is a lot to learn for the Trojans and UCLA.
04:57I mentioned that cross-country trend.
04:59Again, those are the only schools that have lost at home
05:03with a Big Ten school coming to their house.
05:05So a lot to learn, a lot to adjust to
05:07as they learn in their new conference.
05:09And for Lincoln Riley, they're close,
05:12but they're not quite there.
05:14Meanwhile, LSU stays alive in their pursuit
05:17of the college football playoff.
05:18Again, a game that went right down to the wire.
05:21They're plus 165 right now
05:23to make the college football playoff.
05:25Mississippi on the outside looking in,
05:27they're about two to one.
05:29I mean, Bill, Tennessee,
05:30I watched that game against the Gators.
05:33The Gators should have won that game.
05:34I mean, that was as ugly mistake performance game
05:37as I can ever recall.
05:39The only thing I will say that's positive about Tennessee
05:41here, and then we can get it to LSU and Ole Miss,
05:43is that Tennessee hasn't had these blips yet this season.
05:45Every team's gonna have one.
05:47I'm sure the volunteers are hoping
05:48that that was the only one.
05:50We'll learn all we need to know about them this weekend
05:52against Alabama.
05:53I mean, are they a true playoff contender?
05:55Will they trust Nico Iamaliava
05:58to throw the ball down the field?
06:00Or will they play one hand behind their back?
06:02I mean, Alabama has flaws too.
06:04This was supposed to be a top five showdown.
06:06Now it's not an elimination game,
06:08but it's a game between two one loss teams
06:11who aren't perfect at all.
06:12Alabama got lucky, quite frankly, against South Carolina.
06:15That makes that game that much more interesting.
06:18Yeah, no, they did, and I think that that game this week,
06:20you know, certainly Georgia taking on Texas.
06:23When we have Bill, we'll have you on later in the week.
06:24We'll preview all the games.
06:26Thanks again for coming on Newswire.
06:28That was a lot of fun, and, yes, a lot to get into.
06:30I appreciate it.