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00:00A huge Tuesday in the world of sports.
00:05The college football playoff rankings will be unveiled for the first time in 2024 for
00:11the first time in the 12 team era of the college football playoff.
00:16How is the selection committee seeing everything that we have all viewed throughout this 2024
00:23college football season?
00:24And we'll start by using the odds and what we can anticipate, perhaps expect tonight.
00:30So Joe, let's go through the tiers as the odds present themselves.
00:34We'll make a couple of distinctive points here, all lay out what a bracket would look
00:39like currently at the end of 10 weeks after the opening weekend in November, based on
00:44the playoff prices currently available on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
00:48Oregon is the number one team in the country and has the best price to reach the college
00:53football playoff on FanDuel at minus 4,000.
00:56Oregon also has the decisive tiebreaker advantage currently over Ohio State with the head to
01:02head victory, but Ohio State's huge win on Saturday in State College.
01:07The Buckeyes now the national championship favorites, second best price to reach the
01:11college football playoff at minus 3,500.
01:14Georgia has the best number to win the SEC, second best price to win the national title
01:19at minus 2,000.
01:20And they did beat Florida in a rivalry game by two touchdowns, but did not cover and Carson
01:25Beck just keeps throwing interceptions.
01:29Ten touchdown passes to 11 INTs and six SEC games for the Dogs this year.
01:35But they have that direct tiebreaker in front of Texas, minus 1,250 for the Horns.
01:40Miami remains one of the five undefeated teams in the country at the FBS level.
01:45The favorites to win the ACC, minus 1,200 to reach the college football playoff.
01:50Joe, those are the five best prices and you can see how heavily favored all five of these
01:55teams are.
01:56Miami has the worst number and it's still minus 1,200.
02:00Yeah, and it's kind of laughable because I think their position in order to not only
02:08win the ACC, but to give themselves a pretty good opportunity here at one of those top
02:14four seeds with a chance to run the table.
02:16I mean, this is the first time they've remained undefeated this long since what?
02:21They started 10-0 a couple of years back.
02:24You got to love the spot that Miami's in, but the SEC to me is pure chaos here, Ben,
02:30coming up over the next couple of weeks, especially if Georgia loses to Ole Miss in Ole Miss,
02:38because that could very well guarantee Georgia not making the SEC championship game, which
02:43puts them in a whole different category here.
02:45So you've got a lot still to be determined in one of the best conferences in college
02:51football, and none of it is easy, Ben, because the tiebreakers are going to mean everything
02:57in the SEC moving forward.
02:59I can't wait to see pure chaos coming out of that conference.
03:03There is a lot to figure out conference-wise and part of conference realignment has led
03:09to the scraping of divisions, and because of that, potential crazy tiebreaker scenarios
03:16that are going to play out and involve computers if necessary.
03:20But because Georgia does have the direct head-to-head against Texas, and no other team is unbeaten
03:26in the SEC in conference play or overall this season, Georgia is the favorite to win the
03:32SEC.
03:33In fact, Joe, here are the favorites to win the Power Four conferences, Oregon and Ohio
03:37State co-favorites at even money plus 100, but the Ducks have the tiebreaker.
03:43Georgia is the favorite to win the SEC, less than a dollar in front of Texas, Miami a very
03:48short favorite in minus money to win the ACC, Clemson took a shot this past week, of course,
03:54being upended by Louisville.
03:57And then when you look around the Big 12, who's that favorite now?
04:01One of the five remaining undefeated teams in the country in BYU.
04:07But there are, Joe, currently, as it stands, 11 teams with a minus money price to reach
04:13the college football playoff.
04:14That should make things then pretty simple, right?
04:1711 of 12 spots have a minus money playoff price.
04:21That should be what it is.
04:24If it was only that easy.
04:26Let's go to tier number two, Joe, to look at some of those more minus money prices.
04:30Again, Penn State in the narrative of Saturday in Happy Valley is not good, but it was not
04:37impactful really for the Nittany Lions playoff outlook.
04:41They will be a hefty favorite in their final four games of the year.
04:45There is an argument, I believe a sound one, that Penn State's game in Madison against
04:50Wisconsin two Saturdays ago, so much more significant for their resume than that of
04:55an Ohio State game.
04:57Had they won that, they're a shoo-in for the college football playoff in the strength
05:01of schedule or a marquee win for the Nittany Lions is not overwhelming or impressive.
05:06And yet Penn State is going to see the college football playoff if they can win out.
05:11How about Indiana?
05:13The Hoosiers, a perfect 9-0 for the first time in program history, minus $2.50.
05:19Two touchdown favorite this week against Michigan.
05:21Then a bye, a road trip to Ohio State where IU will be the underdog.
05:26Will that game even matter if Indiana can win their following one against Purdue?
05:31They'll be a heavy favorite for that.
05:33But how will the committee judge Indiana based on its strength of schedule so far?
05:39Notre Dame also minus $2.50.
05:42The Blemish in a bad one against Northern Illinois, but against non-MAC teams, the Irish
05:47have looked incredibly dominant.
05:48Tennessee minus $2.30.
05:50That huge win over Alabama and a couple of big wins on the resume for the Volunteers.
05:57And despite two losses, Alabama still minus $1.40 to reach the college football playoff.
06:02Yeah, you got to love the fact though that, Ben, Indiana, listen, Indiana beats Ohio State.
06:09They're facing Oregon in Indy for the big 10 championship.
06:13So they control, it doesn't make a difference, strength of schedule or not, they're going
06:16to control their destiny here and they're going to be a favorite in some pretty easy
06:21games coming up.
06:22And you mentioned it, Purdue being one of them there.
06:25I think Indiana is a great price here across the board simply because they don't need to
06:31worry about somebody else or the committee.
06:34Win against Ohio State and you're facing Oregon with a chance to guarantee yourself one of
06:39the top four spots.
06:41I think it's going to be fantastic, not a stretch.
06:44Purdue a 13.5 point favorite in Bloomington this week against the reigning national champs
06:49in Michigan.
06:50The last time that Indiana was favored to beat Michigan, 1968.
06:56They're laying 14.5 on Saturday.
07:00It is just crazy.
07:01A huge Saturday once again in the SEC.
07:04Texas takes on Florida, the Longhorns 21.5 point favorite.
07:08It's going to be tough for the Gators with their third string quarterback more than likely,
07:13although DJ Lagway, some positive health news yesterday, LSU and Alabama in Death Valley
07:19and a huge one between Georgia and Ole Miss.
07:22We'll talk about the G5 next.
07:24So as we continue to set the stage for what we might see tonight from the college football
07:29playoff selection committee, Joe, let's look at the group of five contenders.
07:33Now I do want to say this and just make it as blatantly clear as I can.
07:38There is nothing in the verbiage, the logistics, the protocol that says those five automatic
07:45births for the five highest ranked conference champions go to the four power conference
07:49champions and then a group of five team.
07:53Theoretically, we could have Army and Boise State earn an automatic birth.
08:00It is not just ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and then throw somebody else a bone.
08:06It can be any of the five highest ranked conference champs and thus, it's not just
08:12Boise State slotted into that 12 seed if they in fact are the fifth highest ranked conference
08:20champ.
08:21Because Joe, based on the odds at a minus 250 price for the Broncos to reach the college
08:26football playoff and a number for Boise State at minus 350 to win the Mountain West, the
08:32Broncos have a better price to reach the CFP than that of the Cougars of BYU.
08:39So it's not a ranking per se, but if we were to follow the odds, Boise State has a better
08:44chance of getting to the college football playoff and thus would be the fourth highest
08:49ranked or most likely conference champ in front of BYU and earn that opening round by
08:59incredibly important.
09:01And based on the odds, Joe, BYU has the 12th best number to reach the college football
09:07playoff as of this moment and even earning that automatic birth, they would not necessarily
09:14then be slotted in to a top four spot.
09:18In fact, based on the odds, BYU would be number 12 in an opening round matchup in Columbus
09:24against Ohio State.
09:26But let's talk group of five.
09:27You see Boise State, the best number there, Tulane has the second best price and yet the
09:32Green Wave not ranked in the AP top 25 as of this moment.
09:37But John Sumrall has done an incredible job in his first year in New Orleans.
09:42Army remains undefeated.
09:45Army is a perfect eight and oh.
09:48Army has covered in six of their eight victories.
09:51Even last week, Joe, with the backup quarterback into Wayne Coleman, filling in for one of
09:56the best rushing quarterbacks in the country in Bryson Daly.
09:59I cannot wait to see what the committee does with Army's ranking, because again, the strength
10:06of schedule is not overwhelmingly impressive, but there is still a chance that Army could
10:12be a college football playoff team.
10:14Louisiana, who we bet on last Tuesday, they're seven and one this year.
10:18The Raging Cajuns look great and UNLV still has a shot.
10:23More than likely, they are going to earn a berth to the Mountain West title game to
10:27get that rematch against Boise State.
10:29Yeah.
10:30And listen, I think it's clear that Boise State really kind of controls its own destiny,
10:36right?
10:37And that's really kind of, I'm Boise State.
10:40That's what I want.
10:41They already beat UNLV.
10:43So that that's good there.
10:45I just don't see Tulane, Army, and we love Louisiana there because that's a, that's an
10:53offense and a defense that can actually do some damage.
10:56But the reality to me is I don't see Boise State taking its foot off the gas, at least
11:01not with the schedule coming up.
11:04I just think it's theirs to lose.
11:06And I think the order on that board, quite honestly, is exactly spot on here.
11:12I don't see Army, Louisiana, or UNLV overtaking Boise State.
11:17Tulane's the only other one I think out of that five that has a shot.
11:21Right.
11:23Both the Green Wave and the Black Knights, that's Tulane and Army, play in the American.
11:27Tulane is the favorite at minus 105, Army's second best price at plus 125.
11:34The Black Knights have already played six AAC conference games so far this year.
11:41Tulane, the only blemish to its resume is two non-conference losses.
11:46Can't fault them against power conference competition.
11:48They covered against K-State in the Big Easy.
11:51They kept it close against Oklahoma.
11:53Ultimately, though, the Sooners did cover that number, winning by 12, I believe it was,
11:58as less than a double-digit favorite.
12:00So is that going to hurt Tulane even if they win the AAC because their overall resume would
12:06not beat out a Boise State in this scenario?
12:10Certainly.
12:11I will mention this on the other side of the break just because I think it is worth getting
12:16to as we get ready for college football.
12:19We'll talk some action as well.
12:21Joe, based on the odds, I have made what the 12-team college football playoff bracket would
12:26look like based on the CFP prices.
12:29I will read it off on the other side of the break because it looks awesome, it looks intriguing,
12:35and there's a couple of change-ups that I do think are worth noting before we get to
12:40the first rankings of the season on this Tuesday night.
12:43That's next.
12:44Live right here on the early line on Sports Grid.
12:47So as promised, what the college football playoff would look like currently in the 12-team
12:53era.
12:54What that bracket reads based on the CFP prices available on the FanDuel Sportsbook.
13:00So Joe, here are the favorites to win the conferences right now with the highest-ranked
13:05teams.
13:06Miami is an odds-on favorite in the ACC.
13:08Oregon and Ohio State co-favorites, but we give the Ducks the benefit of the doubt because
13:12they have the tiebreaker head-to-head over the Buckeyes.
13:16Georgia the favorite in the SEC, and BYU the favorite now in the Big 12 after a chaotic
13:22weekend that saw both Iowa State and Kansas State lose outright against unranked foes.
13:31And Boise State is the overwhelming favorite in the Mountain West and has a minus-250 price
13:36to reach the college football playoff, minus-350 to win the conference crown.
13:41And Joe, because Boise State at minus-250 has a better price currently than BYU to reach
13:47the college football playoff on the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Cougs plus-105, I said the
13:51Broncos minus-250, Boise State has a more likely path to the CFP, thus based on the
13:59odds, one of those four opening round buys.
14:04It would go Oregon 1, Georgia 2, Miami 3, Boise State 4.
14:11So now we go to the at-larges, and again, we use the playoff price.
14:14The more likely odds, the better number, the higher we are ranking you based on those odds.
14:20Ohio State at minus-3,500 would be the 5 seed.
14:25They would host BYU, who has the 12th best price to reach the college football playoff
14:30right now on FanDuel.
14:32At plus-105, the shortest number of a Big 12 team, the shortest price that is not minus-money,
14:38the 5-12 matchup would be Ohio State in Columbus taking on BYU.
14:43Texas would be the 6 seed.
14:45They would host Alabama.
14:46Penn State would be the 7 seed.
14:48They would host 10th-ranked Tennessee.
14:51And how about this matchup in the 8-9, an all-Indiana affair in Bloomington, Indiana
14:59and Notre Dame, both the Hoosiers and the Irish, at minus-250, again, Indiana would
15:05be the 8 seed, Notre Dame would be the 9.
15:08To me, that is beautiful and would show the parity that we have all desired in the 12-team
15:14college football playoff in the expanded CFP.
15:17Again, I'll probably share that out on social media so you can see the numbers and not just
15:22hear me say them, but it's awesome, and I hope the committee does follow suit and not
15:26make us so angry tonight based on these initial rankings.
15:30I do think a lot is going to change over the first couple of weeks, Ben.
15:38It's inevitable now that you've got a 12-team playoff.
15:40But I'll say this, when the committee, ever since they implemented the 14 playoff, when
15:46they list the top 5 teams, right, the top 5 or 6 teams, after the first ranking, Ben,
15:54those teams went 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the number in the first game after
16:00the release.
16:02So those top teams in the 14 playoff era delivered in week 1 after the release straight up, winning
16:10across the board and just not covering in 2.
16:13So I would expect whatever this comes out to be here tonight, expect those top 5 teams,
16:19Ben, to rattle off some wins coming up this week.
16:24Which is going to be huge, because we've got Georgia Ole Miss on Saturday, we've got Texas-Florida
16:29on Saturday, we've got LSU and Alabama.
16:32Probably not either of them going to be in the top 5, but that's a virtual elimination
16:36game in terms of CFP contention.
16:39It is going to be incredible.
16:42And not just the college football playoff rankings, but come on, man.
16:46This is what we care about on this Tuesday.
16:49Potentially the most important thing, I kid.
16:51But midweek match-in returns to our lives.
16:56Joe, you've got some great trends to highlight.
16:58Central Michigan, 13.5 points.
17:01Home underdog are the Chips against Bowling Green.
17:04In fact, both of these spreads are double digits.
17:08Miami of Ohio laying 12 and a hook against Ball State.
17:11The Red Hawks and Chuck Martin got off to a slow start this year in tough non-conference
17:17action, have figured it out in conference play.
17:20They're laying 12 and a half on the road against Ball State tonight.
17:24Yeah, and the trends for match-in weekday football, guys, is absolutely out of control.
17:32Over the last decade, MAAC teams who were double-digit favorites during the week, 65
17:38and 9 straight up, 45 and 29 against the number.
17:43Last year, Ben Alon, they went 6 and 0 straight up and 5 and 1 against the number.
17:49What does that mean?
17:51If you're a double-digit favorite during the week in match-in, yeah, don't be scared of
17:55the number.
17:56It's worth playing at the very least.
17:59So when you look at Miami of Ohio, again, they are 3 and 1 in conference play.
18:04They lost their opener to the conference favorites, Toledo.
18:07But they have gone over in all four games, normally a really good defense, and still
18:11is pretty good.
18:13But they've been scoring points.
18:14They've scored 30-plus in their last three.
18:16They have covered the number in all three as the favorite side.
18:20They just blew out Central Michigan to end out October 46 to 7.
18:25Meanwhile, Bowling Green, the other double-digit favorite tonight, as they take on the Chips
18:30of Central Michigan, they have not been as good in terms of covering numbers in MAAC
18:35play.
18:36They are just 3 and 1, and they, in fact, lost outright as a favorite against NIU.
18:43Because Thomas Hammock and his Northern Illinois team, when they're an underdog, they just
18:47cover numbers.
18:49They are only 1 and 2 against the spread, that being Bowling Green, as the favorite
18:54in MAAC play this year.
18:55All three of those games under as well.
18:59Joe, so many numbers to like.
19:01I would probably lay the number with Miami of Ohio against Ball State, albeit in midweek
19:05match where things get crazy on the road.
19:08If not, maybe the under.
19:09Or over, I should say.
19:11I'd probably lean under between the Chips and the Falcons of Bowling Green.
19:16Keep in look at the weather report here tonight in this Ball State, Miami of Ohio.
19:21Rain and wind gusts up to 30 miles per hour.
19:24So that is exactly why we're starting to see that total come down here a little bit this
19:28morning in the marketplace.
19:31But either way, Miami of Ohio is the better defense, the better running team.
19:34I don't know that anybody's going to be able to throw the ball in 30-mile-per-hour gusts,
19:38but at that point, it just feels like this could be a runaway for Miami of Ohio for sure.
19:44Yeah, maybe then we lean under team total for Ball State in this matchup.