Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00We welcome you to our number two of this Tuesday live right here on the early line
00:06Maybe it's a Tuesday in the calendar, but it's the final day of
00:102024 New Year's Eve is what we call it or in other words a day read the shirt once again
00:18for college
00:19football
00:21Period yeah, that's right five college football games at the FPS level on this final day of
00:282024 for in-ball season and our fifth and final to ring in a new year
00:34It's the start of the quarterfinal round of the college football
00:38Playoff the Fiesta ball tonight out in the desert between the three seed Boise State and the six seed Penn State
00:45Joe so much to get to here in this second hour
00:47We set the stage for the final eight teams still in the chase for a national championship in the first ever 12 team
00:55College football playoff. We will also talk more about the NFL getting you ready for week number 18 golf season
01:03Starts this Saturday on the PGA Tour Saturday starts this Thursday on the PGA Tour with the century
01:09Championship out on the Hawaiian Islands Keith Stewart will be back on the show so much to get into here in this second hour
01:18Yeah, hello something for everyone that as we look to turn the page on
01:222024 welcome in
01:242025
01:26Exciting stuff and we still have I mean what four weeks of college football
01:32Three weeks, so I'm all for it. Let's go
01:36We're not done man three weeks from yesterday is the national championship game
01:41There's a lot of time now in the biggest field in the most teams with the most wins
01:47Necessary to claim a national championship in college football in a history of this sport
01:54So that's history continues on this Tuesday night on New Year's Eve to ring in
02:012025 before a triple header of CFP action comes your way
02:06Tomorrow on New Year's Day. It is New Year's Eve
02:09It is a party that will be the case out in Glendale, Arizona
02:14For the Fiesta Bowl between Penn State and Boise State, it's the first game of the quarterfinal round there
02:21You see the matchups. It starts with the Fiesta Bowl tonight. Then we go to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Arizona State and
02:28Texas our largest spread of the CFP quarterfinal round and then two heavyweight showdowns
02:34to end out New Year's Day the granddaddy of them all the rematch between
02:39Oregon and Ohio State and a Sugar Bowl in the Big Easy would love to visit that city sometime between, Georgia and
02:46Notre Dame what a round we have in this historic bracket the first ever 12 team
02:53College football playoff Joe
02:55I think the natural question as we look at the bracket after we saw blowouts in our four opening round games
03:02Every game decided by at least two touchdowns on campus for the first time where home teams took advantage
03:09Home teams booked as a favorite everybody lay in at least a touchdown in those home favorites were a perfect
03:15For and Oh against the spread with an average margin of victory of nineteen point three points per game
03:21So again, I think the natural question begs will the quarterfinal round be closer?
03:27Including our first two games starting tonight in the Fiesta Bowl
03:32Mmm. Yeah
03:34Unfortunately, they won't and I think they won't hear Ben because we've talked about it. I mean listen, I do think you have
03:4212 teams that
03:44that
03:45Deserve to be there are the most deserving
03:48I I still would like to get to a situation where we just have the 12 best teams in the country
03:54but right that's gonna take a little time and I think that this is where the seating comes into play Ben because
04:01Much like what we talked about last week in the blowouts and how is Ohio State in eight seed?
04:07And that's what you get Oregon for being the number one seed at this point
04:11Yeah, I think they will eventually get the seating correctly
04:15But until then we've got blowouts ready to go here. I mean there are levels to this then we've talked about it, right?
04:22The SMU's of the world are not the Penn State's of the world
04:26And Boise State once again great year deserving to be here
04:32number three seed but
04:34Congratulations. Your gift is that you get to take on the number five defense in a nation?
04:39and
04:40Yeah, you're gonna get blown out like most teams usually do who are not of this caliber here
04:47I mean Penn State's averaging 38 points a game here Ben. I the offense is humming
04:53They they're great stacking the box up against the run
04:56I don't think Boise State can compete but I do think they can score enough to help us get this thing flying over the total
05:04At the fiesta ball most fiesta balls are usually shootouts
05:07I don't think this one's gonna be any different only I think Penn State will eventually cover this game
05:13But I think we fly over the total as well
05:16And that's been a big part of it as well Joe for a Nittany Lions team when expected to win a game under James Franklin
05:23They often do and they are pretty darn good. I caution everybody
05:28Please please please. It's probably not gonna work with some of the takes that we will see tonight on social media
05:34But remember how the college football playoff has always played out
05:40Even our semi-final games in the 10-year history of the four-team format of the CFP were decided on
05:47average by
05:4917.9 points per game with only 7 of the 20 even decided by a single score our
05:55National Championship games in the decade of the CFP the two best teams in college football
06:03Squaring off decided by twenty one point four points per game with half of them
06:08Decided by at least
06:10Three touchdowns blowouts in this unique and wacky sport of college football
06:16even at the upper echelon have happened do happen and will
06:21Continue to happen now Joe to your point on fixing the format
06:25We've already been seeing reports namely from Action Network's Brett McMurphy
06:30Yesterday that the college football playoff committee in the college football playoff board of governors if you will is already
06:36Considering a change to this format for next year where you would still guarantee
06:42Bids to the college football playoff for the five highest ranked conference champs
06:46So you would have that group of five input and making sure you get at least one
06:50ACC and big 12 team in to this field but not necessarily opening round buys for the four highest ranked
06:58Conference champs. I think we can all agree. That's pretty good
07:02I think some of those teams like Arizona State and Boise State or maybe even Clemson
07:08Whoever earns those automatic bids to the college football playoff might rather
07:12Host an on-campus game and play in a ball game where they're still catching double digits
07:17That would be just my estimation
07:20I do think this quarterfinal round will be closer and I think we're certainly going to see that in our final two games
07:27Tomorrow night that being Oregon and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl in
07:31Georgia and Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl both spreads two and a half points in favor of the Buckeyes a
07:37point and a half now only in favor of
07:40Georgia so let's start with the Fiesta Bowl. We'll go game by game
07:43We'll break all of this down where we see things fit throughout our next three hours
07:50But Joe it just should be noted that when you look at these spreads
07:54we've got two that are at least double digits and we've got two that is less than a field goal Boise State is
08:02Catching eleven and a half from Penn State tonight in the Fiesta Bowl out in Glendale, Arizona
08:09And I just I don't I just think it's a terrible matchup here for Boise State because the defense of Penn State
08:17allowing
08:18279 yards of total offensive game
08:22Allowing barely a hundred yards per game rushing, which is the strength of Boise State
08:28I think it's it's simple shut down Ashton Jenthe and guess what?
08:33Boise State's gonna have a hard time in this game
08:35I think the defensive side of the ball is the big difference maker
08:39Penn State number five offense in the country and the offense averaging 38 a game here Ben
08:46They can run they can throw with efficiency
08:49This game could get out of hand in a hurry and by the way
08:53Penn State and Franklin will not take their foot off the gas in any way shape or form if given the opportunity
09:00They don't do that. But Boise State is very familiar with this setting out in the desert in Arizona
09:08They have played three previous Fiesta Bowls
09:11Including one of the great upsets this sport has ever seen back to start
09:162007
09:18Your college football playoff quarterfinal preview live right here on New Year's Eve on the early line on sports grid
09:26We start the quarters tonight at the Fiesta Bowl
09:29It's the three seed Boise State the champions of the Mountain West taking on the six seed Penn State
09:35That would be James Franklin's Nittany Lions Boise has only been an underdog once this year
09:40They were catching three scores inside Austin Stadium against the Ducks
09:43Of course
09:44they kept that game incredibly close Oregon needed a last-second field goal to escape with a win Ashton Gente a
09:52192 yards on the ground that day against the Ducks needs only a buck 32
09:57Tonight to break Barry Sanders record now again
10:01I just have to say this as a student of history of college football Barry Sanders rushed for
10:082,628 yards in 11 games in
10:111988 if you add on even the bowl game for the Pokes that record is
10:162850 so yeah, Ashton Gente in his 14th game of the year could catch Barry tonight
10:22But know what the actual record is not discrediting any Ashton Gente. He has had a historic season
10:28He is going to end more than likely with the second most rushing yards in a single season in the history of college
10:35Football Joe now we go to our next game in the quarterfinal round
10:39It also features double digits that is Arizona State in the Peach Bowl the champions of the Big 12 earning that opening round by
10:47Taking on the top at-large team the runner-ups in the SEC
10:51That would be Texas Texas was the largest favorite of the opening round laying two touchdowns at close
10:58Against Clemson, Texas is the largest favorite in the quarterfinal round laying twelve and a half points
11:05Against the Sun Devils, Texas covered winning by 14 against Clemson in the opening round
11:11Mike the Longhorns do the same here in the quarterfinal round. I
11:17Hate the matchup. I think it's just a terrible matchup for the Sun Devils now Clemson to their credit
11:25and
11:26You know club neck there. They could throw the ball and that's how they ended up moving the ball on, Texas
11:34Arizona State is all about running it with scatter bow, Texas
11:3810th in the country against the rush allowing a hundred and four point two rushing yards per game
11:43the 13 teams that the Sun Devils have faced this season have an average total defense of rank of
11:5176 Texas is the third ranked defense in the country
11:57Overall, and by the way, Jordan Tyson not playing the number one receiver here for Arizona State, which means yeah
12:04How are you beating them?
12:06And they can't get pressure on Quinn yours
12:09We all saw Quinn yours is a different quarterback if you can get to his face
12:13That's not what the Sun Devils defensively do they rank 100th in a country in sacks per game
12:20Everything here points to this being
12:23Advantage Texas if they can't run on this, Texas defense
12:28This game is also a blowout, unfortunately
12:32so Clemson threw for
12:34336 against the Longhorns in Austin in the opening round, Texas entered that game allowing just a hundred and forty six
12:42Passing yards per they were the best secondary in all of college football
12:46I do believe that Arizona State is going to have to run the football
12:50Effectively, and I think they have the guy in Cam Scadavoo who can do exactly that
12:55I also believe they had the head coach and Kenny Dillingham
12:58That came to ASU after being the offensive play caller at Oregon that will design a scheme to keep this game close
13:06I do think Arizona State can stay within this number, but that's a big if on
13:11Cam Scadavoo having the game of his life
13:15He's had seven of twelve games that he's played in this year for ASU where he has had at least a hundred and eighty
13:22Scrimmage yards, he will need that and then some against, Texas
13:27Arizona State's doing a lot of talking
13:29Don't love that because Texas is sitting there and saying what a great year for the Sun Devils
13:34We wish them the best that is what you say before you bludgeoned somebody
13:39When you know, they are better when you are better than them
13:43I will just say double-digit spreads in our first two games less than a field goal in our final two
13:50Oregon and Ohio State in the rematch in the Rose Bowl your classic Pac-12 Big Ten matchup in
13:57Pasadena under the San Gabriel Mountains two and a half point spread in favor of
14:02Ohio State the Sugar Bowl in the nightcap on New Year's Day out in New Orleans
14:07Joe is basically becoming a pick'em before our very eyes. It opened
14:12Briefly with Notre Dame as a slight favorite. It quickly flipped to Georgia as the favorite
14:18They laid as many as two and a half. You can see it there
14:21It is a pick'em right now on the FanDuel Sportsbook Joe of those two games the Rose
14:27Between Oregon and Ohio State the Sugar between Georgia and Notre Dame which game is closer and more competitive
14:36Oh
14:37They're both serious coin flip games, then it's kind of crazy
14:41I I do think in both of those games
14:46Totals are probably where the value is
14:49Good luck trying to
14:51Trying to keep the scoring down between Oregon and Ohio State
14:55in fact
14:55I'd even look at the first half over given the amount of time Oregon's had to prep for this game and given the way
15:02Ohio State came out firing against Tennessee
15:06They're gonna need to do that again
15:08Ohio State doesn't want to have to play come from behind like they did in the first game the entire day
15:13I would look at the first half over as well
15:16But to me ultimately it's gonna come down to the final two three minutes just like the first one did
15:22Hopefully there'll be a lot more points and we have already cast the over in it
15:26But I do think Notre Dame has a really good chance here of walking away with a victory and possibly playing for a national
15:34Championship, they're the dog. I would look at if they are even considered a dog at this point
15:40So when you look at those national championship odds
15:43It's a six to one price on Notre Dame to win that title
15:48Improving because it is basically a pick'em Joe
15:51We have eight teams left in the hunt for that national championship in the college football playoff before we start the quarterfinals tonight
15:58Who would you bet on to win a national championship? I?
16:02Would I don't mind Notre Dame? I really don't I think that they're kind of the forgotten ones here
16:09And while we everyone loves the SEC in the Big Ten
16:13Yeah, I I would I would pay attention to Notre Dame and I think they should
16:20Actually roll Georgia, I think rather easily in this one
16:24It will be interesting Gunnar Stockton makes his first career start for Georgia
16:29With a rush defense outside of the Texas game that has been as bad as we have seen in Athens in the last five
16:36More on the early line up next we welcome you to our number three our third and final not only of this Tuesday
16:43But can you believe it a full year on the early line?
16:47It is our last hour of TEL in
16:512024 who better to bring it and ring it in the jewelry that guy right there and myself
16:57Ben Stevens what better way to end out a calendar year than with a ton of college football and
17:03College basketball on this New Year's Eve Tuesday
17:07We've got five ball games that includes the start of the quarterfinal round of the college football playoff the Fiesta Bowl tonight between
17:14Boise State and Penn State we'll get your thoughts on that in just a few moments
17:19We'll look at our CFP tripleheader tomorrow on New Year's Day to kick off
17:252025 we'll have John Rothstein join us later in this third and final hour for an assessment of the college basketball
17:32Slate on this Tuesday big 12 openers across the board and a couple of big East battles early on in
17:40Conference action so much to get to germinary here in this third and final hour of 2024
17:47Well something for everyone here. I've been coming up as we say goodbye to
17:522024 and yeah, let's not forget college hoops big part of what's happening as we turn the calendar
17:59There is no doubt about it in Joe college basketball will be a big portion
18:05Starting in 2025 even on this final day of the year
18:09Conference action really picks up and I know a lot of people love those non-conference early season tournaments
18:16But for some that are perhaps a tad more casual you want to focus on good teams versus good teams
18:21We will get that night in night out in
18:25conference action in college basketball and we'll still get that during ball season and
18:31Certainly we hope in a quarterfinal round of the college football playoff that begins tonight out in Arizona
18:37It's the Fiesta Bowl between the champions of the Mountain West the three seed in Boise State in the sixth seed in
18:45Penn State but that higher seed is not the favorite. In fact, it's the Nittany Lions
18:51Laying double digits. So how do we approach that in the Fiesta Bowl? We wanted to hear from all of you
18:57It's time now for fade the public
19:01You
19:06The start of the first game of the quarterfinal round in the first ever 12 team college football playoff
19:13What is the best bet for the final football game in?
19:182024 tonight's quarterfinal matchup between Penn State and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl
19:24Is it the Nittany Lions as now an 11 and a half point favorite?
19:27Is it Boise State as the double-digit underdog in a familiar and comfortable setting at the Fiesta Bowl for the Broncos?
19:35Is it the over?
19:3653 and a half or might we stay under that number of 53 and a hook most of the public
19:43Back in the Broncos as a double-digit dog Boise State plus 11 and a half at 35 percent
19:49But Joe in the early returns of this voting we're closing in on 200 votes here on this Tuesday morning
19:56But in the first 75 to a hundred it was all Boise State
20:0155 56 percent of the vote back in the Broncos as the dog
20:05We have seen more Penn State love throughout this morning morning. How are you approaching the Fiesta Bowl? Are you fitting the public?
20:14Yeah, unfortunately, I am fading the public here Ben because I do think there are levels to this and much like
20:23SMU learned the Boise State is gonna learn they are not on the same level as a Penn State
20:30in college football heck of a season doesn't take away from anything that they've
20:35Accomplished but when you want to talk about strength of schedule when you want to talk about the wins and who they've played
20:44It's not even close here Ben the quality of the Mountain West not exactly the same quality as
20:51The Big Ten delivers here and I think Penn State much like SMU
20:56They will they will learn rather quickly in this game that yes when things can go off the rails
21:02They go off quickly and Penn State I think
21:06Will win this game rather easily and I hope Boise State has some success then because I do need this thing to fly over
21:14the total as well, I
21:15Do think that is a really strong look Joe of that total of 53 and a half Penn State
21:21Of course stayed under in its opening round game
21:24Against SMU because that defense was dominant in scored 14 points as well with two of those opening half
21:31Pick sixes against the Mustangs, but Penn State in its final four Big Ten games all to the over
21:39In fact Penn State's offense in its first five Big Ten games
21:43Averaging just slightly better than 24 points per game in its final five
21:48Including the Big Ten title game against Oregon
21:51And if you add in that opening round game in State College against the Stangs
21:56Penn State is averaging better than 38 points per game. The offense has been so much better
22:01Of course 14 of the 38 against SMU was scored by the defense
22:06Dominic DeLuca two of those opening three first half picks in Tony Rojas and
22:12Int return for a touchdown against Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs as well
22:17Boise State started this year Joe playing to the over in five consecutive games
22:22They have gone under much more frequently down the tail end of their season
22:27But you might be thinking well Boise State in its first five games. We're playing a lot of non-conference matchups
22:33You are correct including the game against Oregon the only game for the Broncos as a dog this year also getting double digits
22:41Not just double digits, but 18 and a half points when they covered against the Ducks losing by only a last-second field goal
22:4937 34 and I want to make a point here Joe that I think was maybe slightly lost in the opening round
22:56Often from the betting perspective from that
22:58Handicapping outlook when you think about an underdog
23:01Especially a double-digit underdog keeping a game close and trying to stay within margin the natural thought
23:08It's just simple arithmetic is that if you are going to cover a number as a hefty dog
23:13The total must stay under right just follow me here
23:17If there is a lack of available points if there's only 30 points in a game the chance for Penn State
23:23To cover by 12 plus is much more limited than if there's 70 points and Penn State scores 40
23:30Right because that would mean Boise State is struggling to keep pace. I
23:35Find it the complete opposite
23:37here in college football in these lopsided matchups that we have seen as we saw with SMU and
23:44Indiana against Notre Dame the underdogs best chance of covering is to push the game to it over
23:51Because the Broncos need to score
23:54Offensively against one of the best defenses in the sport led by Tom Allen there in State College to keep this game
24:01Close if Ashton Gente
24:03Maddox Madsen and Boise State's offense can get to the 20s
24:08That is their best chance of covering the number and maybe pulling off the outright upset against the Penn Staters tonight
24:16Yeah, and keep in mind, I mean while that game went under against SMU
24:20It was at Happy Valley in less than ideal conditions. That will not be a problem in this game tonight
24:28So I agree with you
24:30I think Boise State who did have some success against that Oregon defense
24:36Robo be it very early in the season here until of course, Oregon figured some things out
24:42But absolutely a possibility here and Penn State
24:46With how they've been, you know, you bring in the offensive coordinator from Kansas
24:51And boy, oh boy 38 points on average over the last four games. I can absolutely
24:57See Penn State putting up close enough to that
25:01The question is do we think Boise State's got enough in the tank to be able to go toe-for-toe for a little while and get
25:07This thing over. I think you do there is yeah, there is a reason by the way that Penn State is sensational in games
25:14They are expected to win where they fall flat is as an underdog
25:18We can have that conversation perhaps in the semi-final round
25:21But as a favorite 40 games since the start of 2022
25:26Penn State is one of five FBS programs that has won double-digit games each of the last three seasons
25:31So in that span they have been booked as a favorite 34 times in 40 total games
25:38They are 33 and 1 straight up in
25:4124 9 and 1 against the spread both the best win in cover percentage as a favorite among power
25:49conference programs
25:53We continue to preview the quarterfinal round of the college football playoff
25:57It starts tonight out in Glendale, Arizona
25:59at the fiesta ball between the three seed Boise State in the six seed Penn State the Nittany Lions again an 11 and a half
26:06Point favorite our total stands at 53 and a hook one final point on this game. Just so you see the number
26:13127 and a half is the rushing yards prop of
26:16Ashton
26:17Gente, he needs a hundred and thirty-two yards to break Barry Sanders single-season rushing yards record that Barry set back at Oklahoma State in
26:261988 in only 11 games
26:28This is game number 14 this season for Gente and the Broncos just something to pay attention to
26:34And Joe Penn State ended out the year as a top 10 rushing defense in the sport only allowing a hundred and three yards per game
26:41And somehow some way they got even better in that opening round matchup against SMU allowing just 58 yards on
26:5036 carries for short Smith is not Ashton Gente
26:53That's SMU's running back, but he's not bad all to say Penn State's front is
26:59Elite that's how Boise State keeps this game close though
27:03If Ashton Gente makes history in the offense looks the part tonight against Penn State's
27:10Defense now, let's go to our final quarterfinal game our last of three on a triple header New Year's Day slate
27:18Starting tomorrow we go in reverse
27:21Chronological order because we go to the heavyweight bouts to end things out
27:26It's the two-seed Georgia the champions of the SEC the seven-seed Notre Dame and now on the fan dual sports book
27:34It is a basic pick up when you look at these numbers
27:38Georgia is still a slight point and a half favorite the updated odds on the money line
27:43Minus 111 in slight favor of UGA
27:47But it's minus 108 on the other side for the fighting Irish
27:51It is our lowest total of the quarterfinal round in a college football playoff
27:5645 and a hook Joe, how do you break down the sugar bowl in the big easy between Georgia and Notre Dame?
28:04Yeah, well it's interesting because even at a close to pick them price there
28:09Then we're also looking at one of the lowest totals right
28:1345 45 and a half is what we're looking at here
28:17And I gotta tell you wasn't the final score was very indicative of Notre Dame
28:24Easily handling, Indiana, but the thing I looked at was Notre Dame ran for 193 yards in that game
28:31But 98 of those came on one touchdown run by Jeremiah love
28:36So 34 other attempts and they barely
28:40totaled 95 yards
28:432.8 yards per carry
28:45That ain't gonna work. And we know Indiana was very good against the run although lesser competition, but
28:51Georgia is going to make sure they stop the run which means Notre Dame success is gonna ride on their arm
28:59Riley Leonard here. He was not asked to do a lot through the air this season
29:05In fact, I think
29:07326 total pass attempts is all he had this year
29:10I think Georgia is gonna force him to have to be the guy that beats him
29:15I look at his passing yard prop
29:18175 and a half yards this game is this low of a total for a reason and if we're being honest
29:25I think this number is too high between these two defenses
29:29backup quarterback and Gunnar Stockton and
29:33It's gonna be who in the trenches can run the ball better whoever does is gonna win this game
29:38I still think Notre Dame's the better rushing team
29:42And I think that is what's going to win them this game and the under hits as well
29:48six of the last eight for Riley Leonard
29:51He has gone over this number of 175 and a half but his season high is not
29:56330 it's
29:58229 against a putrid Stanford defense trying to defend the pass as well
30:03He had three passing touchdowns in that game Joe. You are correct
30:07Riley Leonard is going to be key
30:09but so too are his legs the legs of Jeremiah love the legs of Judari on price as
30:16Well, why do I say that because Georgia is the worst rushing defense?
30:21We have seen in Athens this year since 2018
30:24They allow a hundred and twenty eight rushing yards per game
30:28Perhaps you could look at things from two different lenses if you will
30:32Georgia at its best is what we saw against Texas in each of those two matchups in the regular season and the SEC
30:40Championship game or are those games the outliers?
30:45It's been an interesting season for the Georgia Bulldogs 13 games
30:49They have beaten four ranked teams all that have played in the college football playoff in those games
30:55Against the best competition against the competition
30:58They will need to beat once again to win a third national championship in the last four years
31:03Georgia is perfect for no straight up for no against the spread against the other nine teams of the docket
31:10Not a single cover for UGA this season and Joe
31:15They only allowed 60 total rushing yards total in two games against, Texas
31:2055 attempts for the Longhorns
31:231.1 yard per carry that was it
31:28But Notre Dame is a better rushing offense than that of Texas 10th best in the country averaging
31:34222 yards per game but injuries a story entering the Sugar Bowl as
31:40Well, we'll talk about Carson Beck not playing in the college football playoff and what we can't anticipate out of Gunnar Stockton
31:46But also for Notre Dame Jeremiah
31:48Love has not been a full 100% despite 98 yards on the ground and that breakoff touchdown early
31:55Against Indiana and Riley Mills one of the better defensive linemen in the sport
32:00Injured in the opening round matchup against IU will miss the remainder of the CFP for the fighting Irish now
32:07Let's get to Georgia Gunnar Stockton is the starter
32:10It is his first career start for UGA outside of the second half in the SEC title game against, Texas
32:16Only two other appearances this season Joe against UMass in Tennessee Tech against the third best passing defense in the country
32:25What can we anticipate out of Gunnar Stockton against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl?
32:30But I don't know that I mean not much is known about him
32:34He's had a total of 62
32:36Dropbacks in his college career and 20 of those came against Texas in the SEC championship
32:43So he completed 12 passes for a little over what about four and a half yards per attempt
32:48He did throw an interception that almost cost him the game. So yeah
32:54They're not exactly a great efficient running team
32:57He's gonna have to make plays and that's whether or not you trust him or not to put your money on him
33:03Because it's gonna come down to him making some plays in this game
33:07Yep, no doubt. It will he is the biggest X-Factor to the Sugar Bowl and a college football playoff
33:15A New Year's Day tripleheader in a college football playoff
33:20Exactly how it should be every new year should start with a day chock full of college football games
33:29Especially those that are significant now in a quarterfinal round of the CFP in every New Year's Day
33:37Should feature the granddaddy of them all under the San Gabriel Mountains in Pasadena, California
33:43It's the Rose Bowl between number one, Oregon in number eight
33:48Ohio State the top team the only undefeated FBS program this season the 13 and O
33:55Oregon Ducks the champions of the Big Ten in Oregon's first year in the conference now take on once again
34:03In league in a quarterfinal in the college football
34:06Playoff the rematch of an outstanding game one of the best games of this college football regular season back in October at
34:15Oregon inside Otson Stadium where will Howard slid just a tad too late in the Ducks
34:22Handed Ohio State a one-point defeat
34:263231 Oregon winning outright as a home three and a half point underdog
34:31They're still getting points in this matchup against Ohio State
34:35But now fewer than a field goal at two and a half Joey one point game in game
34:41Number one between the Buckeyes and the Ducks how many points will game number two at the Rose Bowl be decided by?
34:49I
34:50It's I mean it would be very difficult to sit here and be like, oh, yeah
34:56I'm gonna sweat out and under in this game
35:00Listen, we already saw this game
35:02in Oregon and earlier in the year and Oregon averaged over
35:08Close to seven and a half yards of play in that game. And you know what Ohio State offensively wasn't that far behind there?
35:16There were a couple of
35:18Turnovers by the Buckeyes, I think Judkins fumbled at one point early in that game
35:23So they ended up giving Oregon a couple of extra possessions in which they made count
35:30Against Ohio State. I mean all things being equal
35:34I don't know that we're gonna get anything different than what we got in the first game here
35:41Ohio State arguably the best defense in college football right now. Certainly statistically
35:48Their defense is better than Oregon State. However
35:52Dylan Gabriel
35:54Advantage him over and enough. I'm not taking anything away from what Ohio State did against, Tennessee
36:01I thought that was great. They came out punched him in the mouth and the rest was history here
36:07But if Ohio State's gonna win this game, they've got to win it on the back of their defense here
36:12So I think if you think Ohio State wins
36:16Lay it no problem
36:18But I would also then fade the Oregon team total
36:21Because it's the defense that has to have the day in order to beat Dylan Gabriel in this Oregon offense
36:28Still think it goes over
36:30But I would fade I would fade one of the team totals here depending on who you think wins this game
36:37Fifty four and a half was the total for the original game
36:413231 the Ducks victorious over that number Oregon outright as an underdog
36:47The only time the Ducks were a dog all year long
36:50In fact in the now three years with Dan Lanning in Eugene, Oregon's only been a dog four times
36:57They're not great. The only outright victory against these Ohio State Buckeyes back in
37:03October in fact Joe when you think about the over in this matchup
37:08Oregon has been less than a 21 point favorite seven games this year
37:13They have gone over that number six of seven times in those games going over the pregame total
37:20Six of seven times in the three matchups the Ducks have played against college football playoff teams
37:26over in every one Boise State
37:29Ohio State Penn State in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State has played for college football playoff teams
37:36Over in three of four the only under in a happy Valley against the Nittany Lions back in the regular
37:43Season and Joe to your point about Jim Knowles his defense, Ohio State allowed 32 points against, Oregon
37:51They gave up a hundred and sixteen total points in their other 11 football games now make it 12 with Tennessee
37:58The remainder of this season they are allowing fewer than 10 points per game in the 12 games not
38:05Against Will Stein and this, Oregon
38:08Offense all these things to pay attention to for the granddaddy of them
38:14all we'll look at the props for the Rose Bowl on the other side of the break and
38:19The Peach Bowl in Atlanta that begins our tripleheader of the college football playoff on New Year's Day up next the player
38:26Props for the Rose Bowl and the granddaddy of them all in the college football playoff quarterfinal round, Oregon and
38:33Ohio State Joe there was so much offense the first time these two teams met up back in Eugene in early October
38:41in fact, here's how much offense we saw
38:45963 total yards between the two sides in
38:5063 total points
38:533231 the victory for the Ducks outright as an underdog
38:57I think you could argue Joe and I think it would be a very fair assessment
39:01That it was the best game for either quarterback throughout the entirety of this college football season both
39:08throwing for more than
39:09320 yards that's Will Howard for Ohio State in Dylan Gabriel for Oregon in both
39:15Three total touchdowns two through the air one utilizing their legs as well and look how similar
39:22The numbers are for tomorrow's Rose Bowl in Pasadena
39:28Kind of crazy, isn't it Ben? I mean it just feels like
39:33What we saw is what we are going to get and the question is can Ohio State who had a couple of very costly
39:40Penalties and two turnovers not to mention a failed onside kick
39:46Can they clean that up? Because if they didn't have those things in that game Ben chances are
39:52Ohio State was the winner of that game and
39:55Doesn't really matter. The market is telling you they think they should be the favorite in this game as
40:01Well, I do worry about Dan Lanning
40:04Having extra time he does seem in these spots to have his team ready to go. I don't see a letdown
40:12I definitely think all of those props there
40:16They're all poised for overs across the board and then there's no way around it Dylan Gabriel
40:23270 275 Will Howard is going to have to pass
40:27Trayvon Henderson, by the way, 52 and a half rushing yards feels light given the fact that Oregon's biggest weakness
40:34Defensively is they can't stop the run. We saw Penn State run all over. We saw Boise State run all over them
40:41Maybe that's the biggest area of concern for that Oregon defense in which Henderson can actually take advantage of
40:4980 and 2 touchdowns for Trayvon Henderson against Tennessee and the Volunteers rushing defense much better than that
40:56Oregon Joe to your point the Ducks allowed more than
40:59530 yards to Penn State in that big 10 title game nearly 300 of that on the ground
41:05But Ohio State has had some issue
41:08Against the most elite rush offenses. They have seen this year
41:12Jordan James had more than a hundred in the opening game against Ohio State back in early October
41:19inside Otson
41:21Stadium it is going to be sensational that I can guarantee
41:25For the Rose Bowl tomorrow in Pasadena at around 4 30 p.m. Eastern Time
41:31Phi you know as we are no later than that because the game starts at 5 p.m. Eastern Time around 7 30 p.m.
41:37Eastern Time 4 30 p.m. Pacific out there in California as the Sun starts to set on the first day of
41:442025 over the San Gabriel Mountains
41:47That is a beautiful beautiful thing. The first game Joe is in Atlanta
41:53It's the Peach Bowl between the champions of the Big 12
41:56That's Arizona State the four seed last year's champions in the Big 12 in this year's runner-up in the SEC
42:04It's the top at-large team and our national championship favorites entering the quarters. That would be the five seed
42:11Texas as we said earlier, Texas was the largest favorite in the opening round at close a
42:17Thirteen and a half point spread against Clemson. They won by 14
42:21They covered Texas is the largest favorite in the quarterfinal round right now a twelve and a half
42:28Point number will the game be more competitive than what the odds
42:34Expect for the first game of three tomorrow in the quarter college football playoff quarterfinals
42:40This game is all about the matchups here right now and Arizona State. I believe has a very
42:47Clear path here Ben if they're going to win this game
42:51They're gonna have to do it without their leading receiver who's out and they're gonna have to rely on
42:57Scatterbowl who was there everything in this game? I think Texas is going to force redshirt freshman
43:04Sam Levitt there the QB
43:07I think they're gonna force him to have to beat them over the top and you had mentioned we're talking about a top three or
43:14four
43:14Passing defense here in Texas, although they did give up a bunch of yards and points there to Clemson in that last game
43:23But my goodness, they are going to defensively to Sun Devils they're gonna have to pick their poison as well
43:30We've seen the Longhorns have a lot of success on the ground and that's not going to be good
43:35If that defense is on the field a lot, that's not a good sign for Arizona State ultimately
43:42That it's just a terrible matchup here for Arizona State. I might even look to fade their team total here and think
43:50Yeah, maybe Arizona State a little less success offensively, especially Ben what is the layoff?
43:57Factor in for you here, right? What is the factor that haven't played a game in a while offensively?
44:02Does that help or hurt a team like Arizona State? I think that's the interesting part
44:09It would be Texas or pass for me, but I wouldn't at all be opposed to looking at the under in this game as well
44:15Arizona State is the best rushing defense in the big twelve
44:19They only allow a hundred and seventeen and a half yards for a game
44:23Texas is better than that
44:25Texas is the best passing defense in the country the second best scoring defense in the country the third best total defense
44:32In the country Joe this game stays under Arizona State is going to lose and buy more than two touchdowns
44:40Arizona State in Cam's catabou your favorite running backs favorite running back needs to have the game of
44:47His life offensively. There has been a lot of chatter from ASU about how skilled they are
44:54Sam Leavitt the Arizona State quarterback saying he is out there to prove why he is the best signal caller in
45:01this matchup Cam's catabou claiming that nobody in the country can stop him and
45:06To his point and even a little bit of Sam Leavitt's they might actually have a compelling case
45:11Especially for scataboo who in 12 games played this year for the Sun Devils
45:16He has had at least a hundred and eighty scrimmage yards in
45:20Seven of the twelve but Joe if he's going to or if Arizona State is going to stay close
45:25He's over ninety nine and a half rushing yards has to be without a shadow of a doubt
45:31You could look at his rushing plus receiving yards prop as well
45:35That is how Arizona State stays in this football game and even if they stay in the football game
45:40I'm not sure
45:41There's an outright upset here as a double-digit dog the Longhorns of the national championship favorites
45:48And I think we see why with the reason they will show in the Peach Bowl in
45:54Atlanta where by the way, Texas played in its last game just under a month ago in that SEC championship against, Georgia
46:02I
46:03Get there's a very clear path for Arizona State in this one
46:08so the execution has to be there and I think what Texas has to guard against more than anything else been is
46:16keeping Arizona State in this game because of
46:21turnovers or because of
46:23You know self-inflicted wounds here, and I think that's the biggest thing with, Texas
46:27It's always kind of been the biggest thing when they get to this point in the season, right? We saw it last year against, Washington
46:36They got to avoid giving Arizona State an opportunity to win this game late
46:42That's why I think you're gonna see a full on-court press early and often for Texas in this one
46:48and when you look at Arizona State Joe you have mentioned it when yours has not been fully healthy the rest after the
46:55SEC championship game and now over a week and a half before they will play tomorrow after
47:00Handling Clemson should be a benefit, but Arizona State's not great at getting after the quarterback only
47:0721 sacks this season they are good up front in slowing down the run. They are not great about pressuring
47:15Quarterbacks like Quinn yours if he has time to pick that secondary apart
47:21And we know Isaiah Bond is back now for the Longhorns
47:24He did not play in the opening round game against the Tigers
47:28That's going to be very difficult for ASU to manage. Will one of the double-digit games stay within the number?
47:35I certainly hope so. Joe Ranieri, this is where we bid you adieu. A very happy New Year, my friend
47:41You'll be on game time decisions later. Hardest working man in the space. Thank you. More on the early line next