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00:00The return of Francis Nagano.
00:01People have been waiting for a long time for this.
00:03Unfortunately, it did not look as good in boxing as we hoped.
00:06You know, he looked great against Tyson Fury,
00:08just doesn't get the decision.
00:09Maybe kind of got robbed there a little bit,
00:11and then comes out against Anthony Joshua,
00:13and things just go wrong really quickly for him,
00:15making his return back to the MMA world,
00:18where people have been thirsting for him to be.
00:20What do you see after the long layoff for him?
00:21What are you expecting for him
00:23and against this badass in Ferreira?
00:26Well, look, when we're talking betting, right,
00:28you got to look at the odds of this fight,
00:29and I'm a little thrown off.
00:31I think they're a lot wider than they should be here.
00:33You know, you talk about Francis Nagano
00:35with the inactivity in mixed martial arts,
00:38but with the heavyweight division,
00:39you don't always see the full landscape
00:41of the mixed martial arts, right?
00:42You don't always see the wrestling, the jiu-jitsu,
00:44the scrambles, the exchanges you do
00:45with the lighter divisions.
00:47So I don't know if the inactivity is going to be
00:48really a problem for him.
00:50What concerns me, though, is what you mentioned,
00:51is that knockout to Anthony Joshua.
00:53That didn't happen too long ago,
00:55and Francis has never been rocked like that,
00:57and he was legitimately knocked out.
01:00He is now fighting someone who's younger,
01:02more athletic, bigger, maybe stronger,
01:07and it's a very tough fight for Francis here,
01:10but Francis does have other paths to victory.
01:12You know, when he fought Cyril Gagnon
01:14in his last UFC fight,
01:15he fought someone in Gagnon who was a very good kickboxer.
01:18So what did he do?
01:19He turned into a wrestler,
01:20and he won by grappling, control,
01:23and doing damage on the ground.
01:24If he was to do that here,
01:27that would be the least path to resistance,
01:28but I just don't see it happening.
01:30I feel like this fight's going to be on the feed.
01:32The first couple of minutes is going to be a little bit slow.
01:34They're both going to respect their power,
01:36but I'm going to go with the underdog here.
01:37I do think Ferreira, you know,
01:39he's had a little bit of a up and down
01:41earlier on with the PFL,
01:43but his last few fights, he's looked fantastic.
01:45If he can keep this fight on the feet
01:46with that reach, that power, that athleticism,
01:49I think we may see the underdog bark here.
01:50So I'm going to go with Henning Ferreira here at those odds.
01:53They're just too wide for me
01:55to not take a shot in a heavyweight fight,
01:57where if someone hits that chin,
01:58they're going to the shadow realm.
01:59I'm going to go with the younger,
02:00more athletic fighter here.
02:03Yeah, of course, you know, as we saw so long
02:05with Nagano early in his career,
02:06which is if he gets a knockout or not,
02:08and if you can have a chin, you know,
02:10and that last, he's going to have an issue
02:12that changed with the Gaon fight.
02:13You know, I wonder, when I was looking at this fight myself,
02:16like if, you know, looking back at the Verdun fight
02:18that Ferreira lost, you know, a while ago now
02:20for him, a couple of years, but still,
02:21can he employ that same strategy?
02:23But I just said a long layoff, the knockout to Joshua,
02:26we didn't know where his chin, and also, you know,
02:27don't forget, he also suffered a terrible tragedy
02:30with the loss of his son in between there,
02:32since we've seen him, and so who knows
02:33where his head is going to be at, unfortunately.
02:35He says that's inspiring him to come back,
02:37but we'll see.
02:39That's a tough thing for anybody to deal with
02:40and keep that focus in a fight like this.
02:43Is there any other way, I mean, obviously,
02:44when you get that kind of juice, it's just easy to say,
02:46this is how I'm going to play it and stay away.
02:48Are there any other angles you like?
02:49You know, is there a round total?
02:51Is there a path to victory that you see
02:52that could, you know, give you even better odds
02:55in the prop market for this fight?
02:56Or are you just staying just straight up money line
02:58and, you know, not playing with it other ways?
03:01Oh, I think if Ferreira's going to win,
03:03it's going to win by knockout.
03:04It'd be very hard to imagine him
03:05seeing going all five rounds,
03:07winning a decision from bell to bell.
03:09So I would, you know, if the plus 260
03:12doesn't wet your beak enough, take him by TKO or KO.
03:15You know, the under over here,
03:16if it's an over under one and a half,
03:19that one, I would probably hold off on
03:21because sometimes when you see these type of strikers
03:24at power, there's a feeling out period.
03:26You may see some calf kicks to try and slow one of them down,
03:28which all of a sudden before, you know,
03:30we're in the second round.
03:31But if the two and a half round marker
03:33becomes the over under, I would play the under there.
03:36But there's enough, you know,
03:38there's enough value on Ferreira by money line by TKO.
03:41I don't even think we need to play the over under here,
03:45especially because I think if Nganu goes to the wrestling,
03:47this can go a little bit deeper than people expect.
03:49So we're hoping that this fight
03:51is the battle of the giants on the feet,
03:54not a battle of the giants on the mat
03:56because that will get a little boring,
03:57but I'm expecting a knockout here.