AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explains the tropical development around the Caribbean from late October into November.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Joining us right now is AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DeSilva, and of course, Alex,
00:04when you look at the hurricane season, it's six months in length, obviously September
00:09is the busiest month, but when you look at history, you have some interesting things
00:16to discuss during the month of October.
00:18There's a slope downward with the amount of storms, but within that slope downward, there's
00:23a couple of bumps up.
00:24Yeah, there certainly is, and look at this chart here.
00:27We still have 23% of the tropical season left to go, so we still have to get through
00:32the end of October, and we could even see a couple of storms into November as well,
00:36so the season is not quite done.
00:38We have to keep our eye out over the next couple of weeks.
00:41You know, when I came in and worked on Monday, I became pretty convinced that we're going
00:45to get tropical development, but let's talk about what you see in the tropics right now.
00:50Yeah, looking out way out into the Atlantic, you can see how far south those showers and
00:54thunderstorms are across the way out in the Atlantic.
00:57We call that the intertropical convergence zone, that's where those tropical waves come
01:00across.
01:01That's so far south right now, we're pretty much shutting off the tropical wave season
01:06for the Atlantic as we head into the end of October.
01:08We look a lot closer to the United States now, so we're looking Gulf of Mexico, southeast
01:12coast, and in the Caribbean for development, and I think we have a really good chance here
01:17of seeing something in the Caribbean at the very end of the month or into the beginning
01:21of November.
01:22Yeah, and we'll take a look at history in a second.
01:25This is right where it should be.
01:27Let's talk about why, Alex, we think that we're so high on development.
01:31Not a lot of people have highlighted this as a moderate risk.
01:35I'm ready to go high on it because I think it's going to happen, but let's talk about
01:38why we are so convinced this is going to occur.
01:42Yeah, look at our windshare product here.
01:44The darker purple indicates areas of higher windshare, and the lighter purple is lower
01:47windshare, and you can see, look at where that light purple is located.
01:51Pretty much the entirety of the Caribbean is under that lighter windshare, and so that's
01:55one of the reasons why I'm very concerned that we could get development here at the
01:59very end of the month.
02:00And look at the sea surface temperatures as well.
02:01These are the anomalies, how much above normal the water temperatures are, and you can see
02:06several degrees above average across the Caribbean there.
02:10So you have warm water, low windshare, and so that's kind of a ripe environment to see
02:14tropical development.
02:15Yeah, let's take a look at the pattern.
02:17We're going to see this upper high start to build across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
02:22and it's on the western side, Alex.
02:24We're going to start seeing energy, and once you get energy, that means you're getting
02:27showers and thunderstorms to form.
02:29Yeah, showers and thunderstorms form, and then you start to get a little bit of a twisting
02:32in those showers and thunderstorms, and then that's how you get development.
02:36And without that windshare, those thunderstorms are really going to be able to rise up into
02:40the atmosphere.
02:41They're not going to be knocked over, and so that's why, again, we're concerned about
02:44something developing.
02:46You know, it might be the western Caribbean, it might be the central Caribbean, but I think
02:48something is going to develop here at the end of the month or the beginning of November.
02:52And when you take a look at climatology and history, right where we would expect it to
02:57occur this time of the year.
02:58Yeah, and then where is it going to go from there?
03:01Probably going to move to the north or northeast, so South Florida is going to have to watch
03:04this carefully.
03:05Hopefully, it turns out to sea and goes out into the Atlantic, but we cannot let our guard
03:10down.
03:11If you live in South Florida or along the east coast, there are scenarios that could
03:14bring the storm close to the coastline.
03:16AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
03:18Alex, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.