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00:00Tell everybody what you just told me.
00:02Well, according to ESPN, and I should do it like Jeremy Schaap, ESPN, according to their
00:08football power index, the 49ers have a 45% chance to make the playoffs.
00:15As we sit right now, 39% to win the division, and, well, 1% to earn a bye, that's fine.
00:2339% to win the division, which would tell me that they have a 6% chance of getting a
00:29wild card, and I looked a little bit deeper into their numbers, and it's a proprietary
00:34measurement based on ESPN's football power index, the FPI mark, as you well know, and
00:41they've got the 49ers' estimated record.
00:44They project out records based on what you've done so far and the stats and all the rest
00:50of it, and they have them projected to be a 9-8 team, 8.9 and 8.0, they rounded.
00:58So basically, what this metric is saying is that the Niners will be 9-8, Arizona will
01:04be 9-8, Seattle will be 8-9, and the Rams will also be 8-9.
01:11Good lord.
01:12So that's what this ESPN FPI is saying, and basically, it's a kind of a coin-toss situation.
01:209-8 is where they have them projected.
01:22Okay, so what you're telling me right now is that if we just wanted to play math, and
01:30good lord, we spent all summer screaming about how the math still works for the Giants.
01:35Oh boy, that bit died.
01:37Numbers are numbers, and numbers are numbers.
01:40Right, unless they're my numbers, and I don't know if I want these numbers.
01:43They're scary numbers.
01:47I want to package them in a different way.
01:51You gave numbers, let me give it words.
01:55The math says the Niners are less than 50-50 to make the playoffs.
02:03The math says the Niners probably miss the playoffs.
02:09No, because if you look at their division, you've got Arizona at 38.5% to make it, Seattle
02:17is 17% to make it, the Rams are 19%.
02:20What the math is saying is it's kind of a coin flip between all four teams.
02:25Understood, but if it's 45% to make it, then there is a slight probability they won't make
02:33it.
02:34Again, according to the numbers.
02:36I know that obviously someone has to make it, and all four of them are unlikely to make
02:40it, and the Niners are the highest probability to make it, so you can take from that, well,
02:45I think the Niners are probably going to make it.
02:47You can do that if you want.
02:48I probably would.
02:49I think the Niners will win the division, but again, they're all locked up halfway through
02:54with these teams, two of whom they've lost to, and oh, by the way, those teams all have
02:59an easier schedule the rest of the way, because the Niners have a first-place schedule, and
03:03they've got to go to Lambeau, and they've got to go to Buffalo, and Detroit's going
03:06to come here, and they look like the best team in the NFC bar none, so I want everybody
03:13to sit with that for a second.
03:16The math says the Niners probably miss the playoffs entirely.
03:23How have your expectations, or even just your hopes, your bar, how has that changed through
03:32the first half of this season?
03:34Yeah, 888-957-9570.
03:35And how would you answer it?
03:38My bar's been lowered, and I joked around about it after the Ram collapse, or the Arizona
03:45collapse.
03:46I don't remember which one the collapse was, and I changed my Super Bowl or bust to wildcard
03:51or bust, and honestly, if you look at their chances to be the wildcard, they're not great,
03:57because you've got Washington or Philadelphia, you've got Detroit or Green Bay or Minnesota,
04:04so of those five teams, I would bet that if all five make it, well, now you're plum out
04:10of wildcards right there, and then you've got the whole Tampa Bay and the South situation,
04:15and then it comes down to a four-team tickle fest in the NFC West, and according to ESPN,
04:23the Niners have a 37.7% chance to win the division, Arizona's at 34, the Rams are at
04:3016, Seattle's at 13.
04:32So it feels like, based on these numbers, it's Niners or Carolina, I'm sorry, Arizona.
04:38Niners or the Cardinals are the two big favorites to win the division, and then the Rams and
04:43Seattle are lurking, but you've got, like, Washington looks, like you said, like an
04:4911-win team, they're projected at 11.1, Philadelphia's the same, 11.1 wins, so if they both go 11
04:56and 6, they're both getting in, Detroit is estimated to be 12.5 and 4.5, so give them
05:0213.
05:03They're going.
05:04Detroit's going.
05:05Minnesota's projected to have 10.5, so if they get 11, they're going, Green Bay's projected
05:09to have 11, they're going, so if you go Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit, Philadelphia
05:14and Washington, there's five of your seven.
05:17Yeah, that leaves the two division winners in the other two divisions.
05:20Exactly.
05:21So it feels to me like this is where the Niners are, so in terms of recalibrating where we
05:26were nine weeks ago, when, all right, Ayuk has signed, and he's coming in, and Trent's
05:32coming back, and, you know, McCaffrey, I can't wait to see him tonight, on opening night,
05:36we were down there at the Hilton, getting ready for CMC, and the opener, if we take
05:41those feelings and emotions then, and I was saying, yeah, I haven't met 12 and 5 this
05:45year, 12 and 5, and they got a chance to be the one seed, and here we are, going into
05:50the bye at 4 and 4, with no CMC, no sign of Greenlaw, Hufanga is out again, Ayuk gone
05:58for the year, Jordan Mason banged up, who is that, all the other things that we've seen,
06:04two blown leads, a near-blown lead last night, you're 4 and 4, it feels to me like the bar
06:11that we set, that was super, super high, and all of the dismissive nature of, oh, Super
06:17Bowl hangover, get out of here with that, well, here we are, eight games in, and you're
06:224 and 4.
06:23Well, that's an interesting one.
06:24Right, so, okay, is it a Super Bowl hangover, first you need to define what that is.
06:28I don't believe in it, so.
06:29Okay, but it depends on what you define it to be.
06:33In other words, I do know some people who have said, the Super Bowl hangover is not
06:37just like this bad luck thing, especially for a team like the 49ers that has had so
06:43much regular season success, like, I've heard many argue, and I kind of agree with this,
06:49the Niners are, this is gonna sound so snooty, the Niners are a little bored with the regular
06:57season.
06:58Do you have to be a homer?
07:02I mean, they are until they're not.
07:04They are.
07:05Well, when you get to 3 and 5, you're not bored with the regular season.
07:08No, for sure, and again, I'm not calling, this is not a compliment, this is not a compliment,
07:14but when you have so much success over and over and over again at a certain point in
07:19the season, I think it's very easy as a human being to suddenly think to yourself, well,
07:25we don't really need to worry about this part, and in the NFL or any professional sport,
07:31you can't do that.
07:32The other athletes are really good too, and if you just slip a tiny bit, it leads to things
07:39like what you saw against the Cardinals and the Rams.
07:42I'm not gonna put that on the Vikings and the Chiefs game, the Niners were outplayed
07:46in those football games, but when you relax, and it seems like this team not only did that
07:51to begin the regular season, they do it within games.
07:55Let's be real, this team gets a double-digit lead, and they light a cigar.
08:01And sometimes it's the third quarter, and it has led to them doing very uncharacteristic,
08:09awful things in the fourth quarter.
08:11Now, blend that in with what is also a factor, which is, like many teams, they are dealing
08:19with some very significant injuries, and that has to change your expectations, I would think.
08:27I mean, in the end, the way that I would really look at it, and I tried to make this point,
08:31but it's not really a human point, there's no way to make people not be human beings,
08:35and I get it.
08:36We're excited in August, and we want to talk about the possibilities, Super Bowl, LFG,
08:41let's do it, blah blah blah, woo, we're going all the way, it's absurd.
08:47It's absurd to talk about the Super Bowl in August.
08:50It always has been, it always will be, you have no idea what the story of the season
08:55will be.
08:56So it's like, I can sit here and do both of these at the exact same time, okay, you're
09:03at the halfway mark, how does four and four feel?
09:06Well, awful.
09:08Awful, if I compare it to how I felt in August.
09:13But ask me how it feels compared to how I felt last Wednesday.
09:17Exactly.
09:18Now it feels great.
09:19It feels great because we understand the story, and we understand the context, and
09:26it doesn't make it any less frustrating, but now all of the sudden we're thrilled that
09:31last night the 49ers gave their fan base a good shot at a division title, which two months
09:38ago we thought was the biggest foregone conclusion in the history of the world.
09:44So it's kind of an interesting exercise.
09:48Like we're about at the halfway point, we've reached the bye.
09:51Do you feel good or bad?
09:53Yeah, about where you've been and where it's going.
09:56I feel good about it.
09:58I feel good because of the pieces they're going to get back and the success that Kyle
10:03Shanahan has had almost every year after Halloween, which I checked the notes is coming up on
10:10Thursday.
10:11So after Halloween, his teams are really good.
10:14His record is really good.
10:16You're getting healthier and you're in a division that is ripe for the taking.
10:20No one in this division is going to run away with it.
10:23Like Detroit is kind of maybe not running away with their division, but they look really,
10:29really good.
10:30And Washington looks to be real.
10:32Philadelphia is better than probably we thought, and they have withstood injuries and they're
10:37starting to round into form.
10:39And so there are things in other divisions that are maybe scary, but you don't have to
10:44face that until January.
10:45If you get there, I look at the NFC West and I think that 10 wins is enough to get it done.
10:51Nine and eight might actually be enough to get it done.
10:54And you've got three more divisional games and you've got some payback games against
11:00the Rams, which will be at home.
11:02You go, Seattle's going to be at home.
11:04And I think that if you handle your business in those games and then you split the other
11:08nine games, the other six, you get three divisional.
11:13So if you go six and three, that would make you 10 and seven.
11:16That's enough.
11:17If you win your three divisional and then you split the other six, you win the division.
11:21Well, the thing is, Grandy, what do you got?
11:23What do you got?
11:24Well, you're talking about maybe the Niners appearing like they're a little bored by the
11:27regular season.
11:28Well, okay.
11:29How about this?
11:31In their first eight games, they have played three primetime games.
11:35They've won all of those and all their other games, they're one in four.
11:38Their only win is over the Patriots.
11:40That's an interesting way to look at it.
11:42It's an interesting way to look at it.
11:44So they only care about the national audience being here.
11:47This will help.
11:48We don't get up for just Garden Friday games.
11:51I know what my reputation is.
11:52This will help.
11:54This point that I'm saying I've heard others say has been said to me repeatedly every week,
11:59Sunday night, by my partner, Ephraim Salaam, 13 years in the league.
12:04And that's his take.
12:06That's one of his takes.
12:08He's like, you guys don't, you don't.
12:10And he's unemotional.
12:11He's not a 49er fan, not a 49er hater.
12:14He worked with Kyle Shanahan in Houston when he played there.
12:17He thinks Kyle's awesome.
12:19And he's like, this is why it's hard for them.
12:24They keep winning all regular season long.
12:30And then, even worse, even worse than their regular season success, when they've had crap
12:36first halves, what's happened?
12:39Nothing.
12:40That's not a problem either.
12:43And he's like, it's not an excuse.
12:46It's just a challenge.
12:47It's a challenge that exists within the framework of the DNA of the 49ers, which is that they
12:53do this every year.
12:56They show up for the regular season and come hell or high water, even if you run out of
13:01the back of the end zone, you're still going to find yourself in the big games in January.
13:07And that makes it a little bit harder for them than some of the other teams to really
13:13think that there's a threat going on in the regular season.
13:17It's a little bit of the Draymond syndrome when he talks about, I can't get up for Orlando
13:23on a Wednesday in January.
13:24Shaq used to talk about this.
13:27He used to talk about this in the Laker locker room all the time.
13:29We'll make them when they matter.
13:32He used to do that.
13:33We'll flip the switch.
13:35And it would get frustrating for fans, because at a certain point, they do all the things
13:39we do.
13:40Dang it, I'm paying what for tickets to go see you and you won't flip the switch.
13:45I don't care that it's only December, Shaq.
13:49Play hard.
13:50Right?
13:51And then they would flip the switch.
13:54And then they would flip the switch.
13:56And so I'm not telling you right now that the Niners are Super Bowl favorites.
14:00They're not.
14:01Yeah, they're not.
14:02They're most definitely not.
14:03And I have concerns about all kinds of things that I see out there.
14:08But the truth of the matter is, is the Super Bowl or bust person in August was talking
14:15out of their wahoo.
14:17We had no idea what the hell we were even looking at.
14:20When you said that, whoever I'm talking about, this is a mythical person.
14:24It's me.
14:25Well, no, it was everybody.
14:26Sure.
14:27But when you said that, you had no idea that Jordan Mason was your leading rusher.
14:30Right.
14:31You had no idea that Brandon Ayuk had a torn ACL.
14:34You had no idea that you would blow two games, that you had no business blowing.
14:40You had no idea.
14:41But that Javon Hargrave, all of that.
14:44And so those aren't excuses.
14:46But it's interesting to get to today and sort of re-ask you, are you happy or are you
14:52mad at where the 49ers sit?
14:55Because I would argue, when you understand the journey and the story of what got us here,
15:00you should probably wake up today feeling pretty good.
15:03Right.
15:04But if I had offered this to any of you in August, you all would have tossed it in the
15:07trash.
15:08This sounds awful.
15:09Right.
15:10You should be better than 4-4.
15:11For sure you should.
15:12And, you know, I think about last year where they started 5-0 and after five games, their
15:16point differential was plus 100.
15:19They went 30-30-30, 35-42, nobody scored in the defense.
15:23You were 5-0 and it was, yeah, Super Bowl or bust because we are the best team in football.
15:29And this year hasn't been that.
15:31And you just had me thinking about going to a casino and you walk in with a thousand bucks.
15:35I got a thousand bucks to gamble.
15:37I like it.
15:38And after about two and a half hours, you're down 700.
15:41And you're thinking, oh God, it's, I mean, should I just, what should we do?
15:45Should we punt the season?
15:46Should we think about draft picks, whatever?
15:48And you got your last 300 and then all of a sudden now you're only down 500 and then
15:53you're only down 300 and you scratch and claw and now you somehow find your way back and
15:58you're dead even.
16:00You got your thousand back and it feels like, whoa, yeah, I feel like I just won.
16:04But in actuality, you're just even.
16:06And that's kind of what this Niner Seasons felt like where, you know, you gave a couple
16:10away, you know, you doubled down, you had an 11 Delta and the dealer had a six and you
16:15doubled down and you got a two and then the dealer pulled a five and the dealer got 21
16:20and you got 13.
16:21It's like, oh my God, how did I not just win that hand?
16:24And you know, you had to scratch and claw to get to where you are.
16:28And now your first night in Vegas is over and you check your wallet.
16:31It's like, I got my thousand bucks back.
16:33I love your analogy.
16:34I can't wait to get back in there.
16:35I love the wallet.
16:36And obviously the exact opposite runs as well.
16:39I show up with $1,000 and in the first half hour I win 500 more.
16:43And I'm like, let's go tonight.
16:45We're going to start now.
16:46We're playing with house money.
16:47We're having steak.
16:48Let's go.
16:49Hey, a couple of drinks for me and my friends.
16:53And you're rolling.
16:54And an hour later, you're back down to a thousand.
16:57How do you feel?
16:58You feel like crap, but you didn't lose a damn thing.
17:01Right.
17:02You're even.
17:03You're back even.
17:04That's the yin yang right now of this 49 or first half.
17:08Like it just feels like the engine hasn't even started yet.
17:11But by the same token, there are ways to look at this where you're like, thank goodness
17:16they're four and four.
17:17Sure.
17:18They should be six and two.
17:19Sure.
17:20They never even should have had this issue with certain games and all of that.
17:25But we do the shoulda, coulda, woulda sort of based on what we thought at the beginning.
17:31But even the person who hates excuses the most has to admit, this is not who you thought
17:37the Niners were.
17:40You didn't run around peacocking in the parking lot back in the second week of September because
17:46you thought Jordan Mason, Ricky Pearsall, and Sam Okwuno were going to be playing Dominic
17:54Pooney.
17:56This is not who you thought was going to play this year.
18:01Yeah.
18:02Cowing and Renardo Green and Malik Mustafa.
18:04That's not what you thought this was going to be.
18:06Right.
18:07So do you suspend your expectations or not?
18:10Or do you try really hard to do something that fans and humans just don't do?
18:14Which is toss your expectations into the bucket and kick them out with the trash before the
18:19year even starts anyway.
18:21That's really hard to do.
18:22I don't even.
18:23That's not realistic.
18:24You don't do that as a fan.
18:25You don't do that.
18:26No, that's not fun.
18:27And I think about Grandy and his beloved Arsenal football club in the English Premier League
18:30and they're always really good.
18:33So you always go into the year expecting or hoping that this is the year that they win
18:37the Premier League, even though Man City spends more and they're usually better.
18:41You still go in with that level of expectation and inevitably his heart gets broken.
18:46But we got a lot of injuries right now.
18:48A lot of injuries.
18:49Yeah.
18:50See, but did you see the difference with the two words you just used?
18:53That's so key.
18:54Heartbreaking?
18:55No.
18:56Gun punch?
18:57Makes me happy?
18:58You go in every year expecting to win or hoping, oh, hold stop.
19:03Those are two totally different emotions.
19:06They are.
19:07But when you're Arsenal and Grandy, it's more hope than expectation.
19:10When you're a Niner fan, it's more expectation than hope because you got this unbelievable
19:16roster and that laminated play sheet.
19:18But it's football.
19:19And Steve Young sat in front of us in person.
19:24It was great.
19:25And he was like...
19:26That's singing.
19:27You did say that.
19:28Yeah.
19:29And he also was like, you guys, they blew it.
19:32Last year was the year.
19:35And I didn't take it right away like this, but I should have.
19:39He didn't mean because they're the best team because he probably still thinks they're the
19:44best team.
19:45But what happened last year that hasn't happened this year?
19:47They were healthy.
19:49They were so lucky last year.
19:51They were so lucky until, of course, suddenly in the middle of the Super Bowl, one of their
19:55very key players simply trying to run onto the field blew his leg up.
20:01And then you get a taste for what it feels like to try to do stuff without your key people.
20:05So I'm not sitting here telling you that there aren't probably 12 teams that could cry this
20:09same song, including one of them was undefeated.
20:12So I get it.
20:14I get it.
20:15But I do think that that brings us to a spot where you look at these first eight games
20:22and and recalibrate the whole deal.
20:25And do you feel ticked off because they aren't what you thought they were in August?
20:30Or do you wake up today feeling great because, my God, they're not three and five and they
20:34beat the stupid ass star?
20:36Yeah.
20:37And that's good enough for me.
20:38That's always good enough.
20:39And today should be about that on a victory Monday.
20:42But I'd love to hear from people at eight, nine, five, seven, nine to 570, because the
20:46glass literally is either half full or half empty.
20:50There's we know that there's a 60 ounce glass and there's eight ounces of water in there.
20:55Just a question of how you look at that glass.
20:57But is there a little pinhole in the bottom of it?
20:59Like it's half full, but it's leaking.
21:01It might be.
21:02Oh, he's leaking or is a 10 pound piece of duct tape about to show up in 13 days and
21:11activate the hell out of this team.
21:14The offensive player of the year on the Madden cover.
21:19Yeah, there's that.
21:21Well, and I love you, John, and it was great to be at your compound.
21:25But why?
21:26Why?
21:27McCaffrey on the cover.
21:28Seriously.
21:29Why?
21:30Totally.
21:31Nancy Kerrigan.
21:32Why?
21:33Don't steal my bet.
21:34I know that's my bad.
21:35If there was a way for me to pass you a little note, I'd have done it.