To understand how the 2024 U.S. presidential election could impact the Asia-Pacific region over the next four years, TaiwanPlus talks with Simona Grano of the University of Zurich.
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00:00As we look at the US election tomorrow, regardless of who the United States elects,
00:05what are the most significant flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region?
00:10Right. So I think that regardless of who wins the elections, I would say that there are currently
00:14three major potential flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region that are here to stay.
00:20One is South Korea's relations with North Korea. The second one is cross-strait relations between
00:24mainland China and Taiwan. And the third one is the Sino-Philippines conflict or disputes over
00:30reefs and islands in the South China Sea. And all three of them have recently escalated to
00:35higher levels of tensions. So as we look forward to four years,
00:40there's a lot of foreign policy that can drastically change. What might the Asia-Pacific
00:45region look like in four years' time? So if Trump wins, I think that we may be
00:51looking at a profoundly different world in four years' time. One in which, for example,
00:55many security pacts and alliances created by the Biden administration in the Indo-Pacific
01:00may have collapsed. And in which, for instance, the US may have turned to a more inward-looking
01:06position, retreating, for example, from international organizations and also
01:10partially from support to allies in Europe and Asia. If Kamala Harris wins, provided that she
01:16will continue to govern along the same lines of Biden, I think we will continue to see the
01:21creation of new security pacts or existing ones, trade pacts, alliances with like-minded countries.
01:27Although her stance on China is a little bit uncertain at the moment, as she has recently
01:31stated that Iran and not China are the US main adversary. Looking forward to Taiwan specifically,
01:39what are some ways that the United States election results may affect Taiwan?
01:44Taiwan would probably need to be better prepared in case Trump would win the elections. I think
01:50that the unpredictability of a Trump presidency compared to the possible continuity of a Joe
01:56Biden administration if Kamala Harris wins could mean that Trump would put Taiwan under pressure.
02:01One consequence could be, for example, on the island semiconductor industry. We know that TSMC,
02:07the biggest semiconductor Taiwanese company, is expanding its footprint in the US. And if Trump
02:12wins, he could actually influence heavily this industry or could try to. Another major impact
02:17could be on Taiwan, could be that Taiwan would be forced to pay more for American support of
02:23Taiwan's defense. However, I have to say that Congress in the United States has long been a
02:28supporter of Taiwan, and this is unlikely to change in the future. So I believe that there
02:33will be some degree of continuity regardless of who wins the elections, for example, in continuing
02:39to sell arms to Taiwan and also projecting a tough stance against any efforts by Beijing to
02:45try to change the status quo.