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00:00A huge and monumental Thursday night football game to kick off
00:04week number 10 of the second half of this 2024 NFL season
00:08tonight in the Charm City. It's an AFC North rivalry. It's a
00:12divisional duel. Of course, no love is lost between the
00:15Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. To provide
00:18that prop perspective for Thursday night football and
00:22elsewhere at Sports Grids, Tom Vecchio here on this Thursday on
00:26the early line. Tom, as always, thanks for your time.
00:30Of course, thanks for having me. Normally, I like to come on
00:32here and, you know, maybe make a joke, but let's hop right into
00:35things and Joe, if we have that graphic, the question I will
00:39ask Ben, you already know, but Donnie, the question is what
00:42does week 11 of last season mean for the Ravens and
00:47specifically Mark Andrews? November 16th of 2023. What does
00:52that game mean? I know where you're going because I actually
00:57saw the writing now here, but I lost a wager on that football
01:01game. Kevin almost walked off the set because he had a couple
01:04of weeks in a row where key guys were getting injured. So
01:06we remember this very fondly and we're now looking for a
01:09break away from broken ankles. How about that? Right and and
01:13this is where I want to start and this was the game last
01:16season, you know to to get to right to things. This was the
01:19game last season where Mark Andrews got hurt and no, I
01:21don't want to say like this derail the Ravens season. They
01:23obviously made it to the AFC championship game, but Andrews
01:26was in a good spot last year. He was having a great year. He
01:29comes back. He just wasn't himself in that final game. So
01:32ultimately one of my takes for tonight is that he exacts some
01:35revenge against the Bengals and this is a legitimately good
01:38spot. We'll dive into the stats in a little bit, but I do think
01:40this is going to be a very, very solid game for Mark
01:43Andrews tonight. We will get to that angle for sure. It was not
01:47just Mark Andrews who did not play again or he did actually
01:50come back by that AFC championship game, but missed
01:53the remainder of the regular season. It was Joe Burrow with
01:56the injured wrist that was sidelined. It's completely
01:59shell. Everything Cincinnati was trying to do. It was a huge
02:02game entering. It was a significant stage. It was great
02:06for the first quarter and a half and then of course it kind
02:09of was hampered a little bit. So Vecchio it feels again really
02:14important tonight entering this Thursday night football game.
02:17Both teams started winless the Ravens in their first two the
02:20Bengals in their first three Baltimore has responded winning
02:24six of its last seven Cincinnati has responded
02:27winning four of its last six. It is a huge game tonight. It is
02:31a six and a half point number in favor of the flock. It is a
02:35very high total for a short week Thursday night football
02:38game 52 and a hook Vecchio. What are the numbers telling you
02:42about how we can expect this game to play out tonight in
02:45Baltimore? Yeah, that 52 and a half number is certainly very
02:48high a for a short week. It's prime time. It's also the
02:51visual matchup and I know how good the Ravens offense has
02:55been and the Bengals offense has certainly been solid over the
02:57past few weeks, but man 52 and a half in I'm going to say like
03:01a borderline must win game for the Bengals just seems like a
03:04bit much and their defense has been playing better better
03:08over the past few weeks. I would say we have to take that
03:09with a little bit of a grain of salt considering they played
03:11the Giants the Browns and the Raiders over some of these
03:15recent games and listen. It's tough to take an under on a
03:18Ravens team that could drop 30 points before you know it and
03:20we'd be cruising towards the over, but I still think the
03:23under is the best way to go. I will also say you know, there's
03:25a lot of trends out there something. I'm not you know
03:27huge on that Burrow is I think it's 18 and three when he's an
03:31underdog of three points or more so there would be a path
03:34to the Bengals covering but the Ravens still winning. I think
03:37that's what we could be seeing tonight. Let's take a look at
03:40the quarterback position and two of the best in the business
03:42going to go toe to toe. That's Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.
03:45They were fantastic in an offensive shootout last time
03:47they met on the field just a few weeks ago. Good weather
03:50conditions tonight in Baltimore 232 and a half that passing
03:53prop for Lamar Jackson for Joe Burrow 268 and a half each one
03:56of them. Of course one and a half touchdown passes juiced a
03:59little bit differently. Lamar Jackson minus 128. Take a look
04:02at Joe Burrow minus 168 the play the quarterbacks tonight.
04:04What are we looking at Tom? I mean Burrow has been awesome
04:07this year right and the Ravens secondary is absolutely
04:10terrible. They're giving up 280 passing yards per game. That's
04:13the worst in the league and some of that is obviously game
04:14script where they're like I said, they're putting up 30
04:17points a game. So we see these teams constantly playing from
04:19behind. So we're just seeing a lot of quarterbacks rack up
04:22yards. I would say the same thing. It's kind of in line
04:24with you know, the Bengals covering the Ravens still
04:26winning. I think there's a path to Joe Burrow hitting the over
04:29on his yards his attempts his completions because he's been
04:33so efficient this year. He's not throwing interceptions. He's
04:35completing at over 70%. I think there's a chance that Burrow
04:38hits the over on all of his props and that we see and that
04:42we see the the Ravens still win the game. Yeah, it could be
04:47that case right now. Baltimore this year has laid five and a
04:51half points or more four times. They are two and two both
04:54straight up and against the spread of course outright
04:57losses to the Raiders and the Browns when you look at the
05:01Bengals a dog just twice one and one ATS no outright wins.
05:05They did come close in that overtime thriller against the
05:09Ravens back in week five and of course in week number two on
05:12the road in Kansas City Cincinnati a perfect four and
05:15although against the number away from home this year. Of
05:19course when you talk about Baltimore though Vecchio, it's
05:21not just Lamar Jackson. It's the ground game with Derrick
05:25Henry and all six victories for the Ravens this year. Derrick
05:28Henry has gone over his rushing yards prop of 89 and a hook that
05:33is listed for tonight. Let's say the Bengals do cover but as
05:36you have pointed out a few times the flock does end up
05:39winning outright. How much of the king will we see against
05:42this Bengals rush defense? I think it's gonna be as usual,
05:45you know, a Derrick Henry game. He's always gonna be in the
05:47mix when it comes to his rushing yards as I say with a
05:50lot of like top tier players, whether it's basketball, I
05:52think these lines are super efficient. So I actually like
05:54looking to Derrick Henry longest rush over nineteen and
05:58a half. We always see him break off these big runs. So you
06:01know, maybe you don't wanna go to him over 89 and a half like
06:04he could realistically end this game with eighty-five and I
06:06still think the Ravens would be in a good spot. I think the
06:08carries and the longest rush over nineteen and a half are
06:11actually my two favorite for Henry rather than going to his
06:14yards alone in and I will also be looking to take an under on
06:17his total receptions which I haven't been able to find. He's
06:20not involved in the past and that's just what it is. He has
06:22maybe one reception on a week-to-week basis. If I can
06:25find under one and a half receptions for Derrick Henry,
06:27that's what I'm going to. I just haven't been able to find
06:29it yet. Let's take a look at those pass catching players
06:33here tonight. You got some great options on both sides.
06:35Top dogs here is a flowers for the Baltimore Ravens. He's
06:37listed at sixty and a half as a receiving prop. Jamar Chase
06:40at eighty-two and a half and Mike has now crossed over the
06:43half century mark at fifty and a half. A lot of steam this
06:46week. How are we playing the wide receiver position which
06:48also from this morning, Ben and I were talking about Deontay
06:51Johnson was twenty and a half. He's now down to seventeen and
06:54a half here, Tom. So, II really do like Chase and I think this
06:58this does play into the game script or do you see the
07:00Bengals, you know, likely playing from behind again, 280
07:04passing yards per game that the Ravens allowed he and he
07:07torched them earlier this season with 10193 and two
07:10touchdowns in that game that went to overtime. So, I like
07:13Chase. We're not expecting T Higgins to play. So, I think
07:15again, there is a path for Mike to see a ton of yards. Both
07:19teams on the bottom ten league when it comes to the most
07:21receiving yards allowed to opposing tight end. So, I like
07:24to say, I think he's fine. I like Andrews tonight. Like I
07:26said, specifically for the touchdown, which is sitting
07:28about plus 220. Bengals, they've allowed the seventh most
07:30receiving guards, the tight ends, the tie for the second
07:32most touchdowns allowed up at five to tight ends. I still
07:35think that I'm not in love with Andrew's yardage prop and
07:38I know that sounds weird. Like, I love him to have a TD but I
07:40think there's a scenario where he has three or four catches
07:43for thirty-five or so yards. He maybe hits the under on his
07:46yards but he still finds the tight end. The Deontay Johnson
07:49line sitting at seventeen and a half. You know, a part of me
07:51wants to take the over, right? They they didn't have him
07:54involved a super at a heavy rate last week. Obviously, it
07:57was a, you know, getting him midweek. He just wasn't
08:00involved a lot. I like him over seventeen and a half just
08:02because I think they want to get him involved in the
08:04offense. You know, Zate Flowers isn't going to be
08:06having a hundred yards every single game. Like, they need a
08:08solid secondary receiving option alongside and that's
08:11partly why they brought him in. So, I I could buy into over
08:14seventeen and a half for Deontay Johnson. Rashad Bateman
08:18has been great as well as of late for Baltimore. Fifty-eight
08:21yards in the first game against the Bengals. So, Becky O, you
08:24have made the point about Mark Andrews. Why do you use the
08:28narrative to back up Andrews hitting Pater tonight? Yeah, so
08:32the narrative is always like a fun part. I always like to
08:34add in, you know, I always like to start things off with
08:36like high player usage, players that I'm expecting for
08:39positive aggression. The Bengals are legitimately bad
08:41against tight ends this year. That's the one thing that I
08:43want to know and then adding in the narrative is a nice little
08:45thing. We've also seen Mark Andrews be better as the season
08:48has gone on, right? We we all know he started off super slow.
08:51He's ending games with no catches, one catch for twelve
08:53guards but I do think that this is a game where we do see Mark
08:56Andrews continue to emerge in their passing offense and at
09:00plus 220, we're getting a solid red zone option against the
09:03second most receiving receiving touchdowns at tight ends this
09:07season. There you see it. Tom's top props for Thursday night
09:12football. Tom Vecchio as always, we appreciate the time.
09:15We'll talk to you on Monday. We'll continue the breakdowns
09:18tonight in Baltimore. Next, Thursday night football, a
09:22significant game as we have shared an impactful outcome
09:26will be decided tonight in the Charm City between the
09:29Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. DRS, if
09:32you're looking for narratives, a reason to love a football
09:34game, this one pretty much ticks every box, right? AFC
09:37North rivalry, no love lost between these two teams or
09:41these two fan bases. That divisional duel adds on the
09:44significance but at this stage of the year, starting the
09:47second half of the season, kicking off week number ten
09:50tonight, it's even more than that. The Baltimore Ravens
09:53trying to exert their might as one of the top teams in the AFC
09:57and in the division. The Cincinnati Bengals after trying
10:01to crawl their way out of the winless oh and three start to
10:04this year. Need every game that they can have even though
10:08short week on a Thursday night on the road against a
10:11divisional duel to get back into the playoff conversation.
10:15Thus, we get to tonight. Six and a half points spread in
10:18favor of the flock. You need one additional thing. We're
10:21expecting points, baby. Fifty-two and a half is that
10:24total for a short week Thursday night football game. Side,
10:28total DRS. What do you think is the correct way to look at
10:32it? Yeah, actually just dropped here live at the
10:34FanDuel Sportsbook. The five and a half now is a favorite for
10:36the Baltimore Ravens. So, these lines are going to be moving
10:38throughout the day. We'll see where they end up. Fifty-two
10:40and a half is a total. It's again, I'm not going to play a
10:42side or a total but if I was playing those, I'd be taking
10:45the Baltimore Ravens now updated line minus five and a
10:48half and I would lean towards the over fifty-two and a half
10:50in this game. It's look, it's the only detriment here. This
10:53was a Sunday football game. You probably even to get T
10:56Higgins back which is a shame. He's not going to play tonight.
10:58That would have been a massive boost because they shot it out
11:01in that last game partly because they couldn't defend.
11:03Talk about they, the Baltimore Ravens, that tandem wide
11:06receiver. They were going nuts in that football game. Combined
11:08four touchdowns, couple hundred yards, you know, close to twenty
11:11receptions between the two. So, I do lean over at this point
11:14but if it was a Sunday game, same weather conditions, we
11:16definitely would be in the mid fifties. It just makes it a
11:19little bit tougher on those overs as we stated. The highest
11:21total on a Thursday night, that's for a reason. Yeah, it
11:25certainly is and Donnie, you have made this point a few
11:27times as well. Joe Burrow threw for nearly 400 yards in five
11:31touchdowns in the first game this year between the Bengals
11:34and the Ravens but T Higgins was there. He caught multiple
11:38touchdowns. He had nine grabs. He had eighty-three yards.
11:41Jamar Chase had ten receptions for a buck ninety-three. Yeah.
11:44And two touchdowns as well. Lamar Jackson on the other side
11:48was MVP-esque as we know. 348 through the air, four touchdown
11:53passes, 55 yards utilizing his legs and Derrick Henry had
11:58ninety-two yards and a score as well. Derrick Henry has gone
12:01over his rushing yards prompt. Tonight listed at eighty-nine
12:04in the hook in all six victories this year for the
12:07flock. Perhaps that's not overly surprising. It just goes
12:11to show how prolific the king is even still at age thirty.
12:15Baltimore over in eight of nine games this year. Cincinnati is
12:20perfect four and oh against the spread on the road this
12:24season. Donnie, we focus on the quarterbacks. We have said this
12:28a few times. Maybe we're not expecting or we don't think
12:31it's the wisest wager to expect fifty-three plus points but we
12:34know there is going to be some offense. How would you
12:37approach that from the quarterback comparison on
12:39Thursday night? Yeah, I look, I'm actually, we're getting
12:42points here. It's hard to say no on Joe Burrow because I
12:44don't care who has a wide receiver. He's going to be
12:46throwing around. If they're losing, he's going to get extra
12:48targets in the fourth quarter and also, that front seven is
12:50pretty good for the, you know, the Ravens where I don't know
12:53if you can hand the football for the five and expect
12:54touchdown. Maybe you gotta go play action to do that but I
12:57have to tell you, Lamar Jackson is the apple of my eye tonight
13:00in the offense because just seeing what he's been doing the
13:03past couple weeks, looks like he's actually transposed with
13:06Patrick Mahomes. What do you do in the past? 220, 250, 270,
13:10234 touchdown passes here. He's been absolutely breaking, you
13:14know, maybe break a record this year but it's getting a third
13:17MVP in the regular season for himself in the Baltimore Ravens.
13:20If we can just, that's how good he's been but for me, over one
13:22and a half touchdown passes, I don't know how it misses for
13:25Lamar Jackson. I'm just being real. Hey, Don, they got Derrick
13:28Henry. He can score a lot. No, I expect Derrick Henry to score
13:30tonight too but if we're looking at four touchdowns out
13:33of the Ravens, we're getting two touchdown passes out of Lamar
13:36and it's a pretty good price for it too. Completely agree DRS.
13:40Again, it feels rather simple. Perhaps it is. The Ravens are a
13:45bottom ten scoring defense. The worst passing defense in the
13:48NFL allowing pretty much 281. Joe Burrow threw for nearly 400
13:53in the opening game against the Ravens. He has thrown five
13:55touchdown passes twice this year against Baltimore in week
13:59five. Last week at home against Las Vegas but the Flock Elite
14:03stopping the run. They're the worst passing defense and the
14:05best rushing defense in the national football league. Donnie,
14:09Lamar Jackson has thrown for 280 plus in five consecutive
14:13games. Rashad Bateman has been a big reason why. They flowers
14:17more than 120 last week. A buck eleven in the opening game
14:21against the Bengals as well. He has the top yardage prop for
14:24anybody on the Ravens tonight but Rashad Bateman fully
14:27healthy this year. He's played in all nine games for Baltimore.
14:30That is good to see. At least 23 yards in all nine and Donnie,
14:35as the Ravens have started to play better football and in
14:38this five-game stretch with Lamar Jackson throwing for at
14:41least 280. Bateman's had 58 plus in three of those five. I
14:47think you're still getting a discounted number. I was a
14:49little bit worried about Deontay Johnson's extended usage
14:53but with his number coming down, I kinda like Rashad
14:56Bateman. Donnie, you like to give out the same game parlay
14:58to the people. Yes. Can you make sure we know that same
15:01game parlay tonight and what we have? And while we're just
15:04going over these numbers, I put a low man on the totem pole,
15:07no sweat parlay together tonight on the fans of sports
15:09book. I'm gonna give that in just a second but the original
15:11one I love which everybody's saying they're boosting up.
15:13They didn't give me a boost on this one. I only have a live
15:15boost during the game. So, let's eat people. Gusecki,
15:18twenty-five or more yards. Mark Andrews, twenty-five or more
15:20yards. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow to throw at least one
15:22touchdown apiece. I got plus one or two but everybody's
15:25saying out there, they're boosting it up. Maybe they're
15:27limiting me on that. Yeah. But how about this one? You'll like
15:29this man. You wanna buy low? Buy low is always fun because
15:31you're in it the whole game. The low men on the totem pole
15:34plus five twenty-three no sweat token used tonight. Andre
15:38Yoshivash over twenty-and-a-half receiving
15:40yards. Deontay Johnson over seventeen-and-a-half
15:43receiving yards. Rashad Bateman over thirty-and-a-half
15:46receiving yards. That's plus five twenty-three. So, a
15:49twenty-five-dollar wager pays back 155 on that and if you
15:52lose, you get the twenty-five back. Let's have some fun. I
15:56love it DRS. There is a 50% same game parlay private boost
16:01that I am going to use. Yes. That I was given. Man, you
16:05would think the guy that hosts the FanDuel show would be
16:08giving some of those perks. They're limiting me on these.
16:11They know better. Mister Limited. That's what they'll
16:16call you. Yeah, it's real. Not Mister Unlimited. That's pretty
16:18good. Ryan Ross. That's on. Yeah. You like that, huh? We'll
16:22see Donny tonight on Thursday. NFL football in game live game
16:28day. Donny right side. Kevin Walsh and Joe Lisi get you set
16:32for TNF and it's a great one. DRS enjoy tonight. Enjoy the
16:36Moneyline. Enjoy the weekend. I'll talk to you next week.