Kyiv was the target of its first missile attack since August on Wednesday morning, with a two-hour Russian ballistic missile operation that targeted the entire country. FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Olga Oliker, Program Director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group. She says that Ukrainians are exhausted by the war, but they are not ready to give up, since they see surrender as the end of their country. She also says that a land grab is not Russia's main objective, but that Ukraine's sovereignty is.
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00:00This is Apropos, well Russia has been attacking the Ukrainian capital Kiev with a sophisticated
00:08combination of missiles and drones for the first time in more than two months.
00:13Eight regions were targeted in the assault which came as the US Secretary of State said
00:17Washington intended to bolster military support to Ukraine during the final months of the
00:23Biden presidency.
00:24Antony Blinken was speaking in Brussels amid mounting political uncertainty in Kiev over
00:30how a US administration under Donald Trump will change American policy on the war.
00:36Cammie Knight has the latest.
00:41Residents of Kiev woke up to the sound of air raid sirens, an air defence fire.
00:51It was the first missile attack on the capital since August, but seeking shelter has become
00:56almost routine, entire families taking refuge in metro stations.
01:01It's horrible every time there's a missile attack, we've got used to drone strikes, if
01:08it's even possible to get used to them, because they fly over us every night.
01:14The Kiev region suffers constantly.
01:17On the outskirts of Kiev, falling debris injured several people after a warehouse caught fire.
01:23The fresh round of attacks involved six cruise and ballistic missiles and 90 drones, only
01:28about half of which were intercepted by air defence systems across the country.
01:33Ukraine has also lost ground on the front line in recent weeks and many feared that
01:37the election of Donald Trump could mean a reduction in US support that could have a
01:41decisive impact on the war with Russia.
01:45Trump has often praised Vladimir Putin and suggested in September that Ukraine should
01:48have quote, given a little bit to Moscow to secure a truce.
01:53On a visit to Brussels for talks with the head of NATO, US Secretary of State Antony
01:57Blinken sought to reassure Ukrainians.
01:59President Biden fully intends to drive through the tape and use every day to continue to
02:04do what we've done over these last four years, which is strengthen this alliance, to continue
02:08to shore up everything we're doing for Ukraine, to make sure that it can effectively defend
02:12itself against this Russian aggression.
02:14As Ukraine's biggest provider of military aid by far, US support is essential, particularly
02:20after Tuesday's confirmation that as many as 10,000 North Korean soldiers were already
02:25fighting in Kursk alongside Russian forces.
02:30To discuss, we're joined now by Olga Oliker, Programme Director for Europe and Central
02:34Asia at the International Crisis Group.
02:37Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Olga.
02:41As we saw there in Cammy's report, there have been further strikes on Kiev over the
02:46past 24 hours, Russian forces continuing to make gains on the eastern front lines.
02:52How concerned are Ukrainians about what happens over the coming months?
02:56Look, Ukrainians have been in a full-scale war for nearly three years.
03:02They've been at war for a decade.
03:05So of course they're concerned.
03:08Of course they worry about what comes next.
03:10But I think there's also a certain stoicism in that country and a certain recognition.
03:18On the one hand, people are exhausted by the war.
03:20On the other hand, I have yet to speak to any Ukrainians who are looking to surrender
03:27and who see that as a way out, because fundamentally they see that as the end of their country.
03:33And your organisation had said last month there was a growing understanding, as you've
03:36suggested there, that a ceasefire is perhaps more realistic at this stage than a battleground
03:42victory for Ukraine.
03:44What concessions do you think Kiev may be forced to make with Donald Trump in the White
03:49House in the new year?
03:51So look, I think some of the discussion of ceasefires and deals misses the very critical
03:58point that even if the Ukrainians would very much like a break, the Russians have been
04:03trying to send a signal that they don't want or need a break.
04:07So I think the question you want to ask is, if that's what you're looking for, is what
04:12would bring the Russians to the negotiating table?
04:15And I think one of the problems is you often hear this formulation of land for peace, which
04:20ignores the actual reason Russia is fighting this war.
04:23And it's not for Ukrainian territory.
04:26It's basically a war over Ukrainian sovereignty.
04:30So any deal that gives Russia what it wants, that's not a question of giving it land for
04:35peace.
04:36It's a question if what you're trying to do is give the Russians what they want, it's
04:39giving away Ukrainian sovereignty.
04:41Now that has repercussions for European security, which would be very negative.
04:45So even aside from what happens in Ukraine.
04:48So this is the real challenge, right?
04:50How do you get to a sustainable peace, one that actually Ukraine walks away from with
04:54sovereignty wherever, whatever territory it does or does not control?
05:00And it would also be trying to ensure that it has security guarantees to deter further
05:05Russian attacks.
05:06Do you think that is likely to be something that Moscow would agree to?
05:11So look, it depends on how you define security guarantees.
05:14When the Russians were negotiating with the Ukrainians in the spring of 2022, they also
05:18talked about security guarantees, including from Russia.
05:22But what you're talking about is promises from other countries that they will come to
05:25Ukraine's assistance.
05:27To some extent, Ukraine has that.
05:28It has signed agreements with, I think, 20 countries.
05:33But what does that mean?
05:34Will those countries fight for them?
05:35Will they risk a war with Russia?
05:37Is the security guarantee from Russia promised from Russia that it won't do anything worth
05:41the paper it's printed on?
05:43So you know, it's not as simple as saying there will be security guarantees.
05:47I think one thing that has fallen by the wayside with the election of Donald Trump is any expectation
05:53of Ukraine getting, it already has an invitation in the broad sense, but of Ukraine having
05:59a path to NATO membership anytime soon.
06:02But even without Donald Trump, I think it was long difficult to imagine the U.S. Senate
06:06that was going to ratify Ukraine and NATO.
06:10So will Europe have to do more to ensure its own security?
06:12We've already seen suggestions that European leaders are thinking that way.
06:16Look, Europe will probably have to do more for Ukraine than for themselves if they want
06:23if they want any hope of a stable peace and a secure Europe.
06:26I think that was going to be the case whether or not Donald Trump was elected.
06:29But it is the case faster and more urgently with Donald Trump poised to enter the White
06:35House in January of next year.
06:38And what exactly do you expect under his administration?
06:41You had participated yourself on a panel on his pledge to end the war in Ukraine.
06:47How quickly do you think he's going to move or what exactly is he likely to do?
06:52You know, it's really hard to know because, again, it's hard to see.
06:55You could see the war ending by with Ukrainian surrender.
07:00But of course, that has really awful repercussions, not just for Ukraine, but as I said, for European
07:05security more broadly.
07:06And that should not be something the United States is looking to.
07:10That would be very, very bad for the United States in the long term, which has very close
07:14economic and security ties with Europe.
07:17So that's a bad plan.
07:20Russia surrendering seems very unlikely since Russia at the present moment seems to have
07:25the upper hand.
07:26So unless there's something Donald Trump knows that the rest of us don't, that doesn't seem
07:30very plausible.
07:32If he can convince the Russians and the Ukrainians that negotiations are more advantageous than
07:38continuing to fight, then there might be a way to actually move forward.
07:43But I do not know that I don't know how he would move, how he would do this.
07:49It might be possible to get Putin and Zelensky into a room, sure.
07:52But getting them to leave that room with any kind of agreement is it's a different challenge.
07:58And ahead of that, the U.S. Secretary of State was speaking today in Brussels.
08:02He said that Washington, it intends to bolster its military support to Ukraine during the
08:06final months of the Biden presidency.
08:09It also wants to strengthen the NATO alliance.
08:12But realistically, what can be done in such a short period of time?
08:16Look, what they're going to try to do is send as many of the weapons that have already been
08:21promised to Ukraine and already paid for or were already committed to by the U.S. Congress
08:26to Ukraine.
08:27That's hard because the U.S. basically, you know, it has to, if it doesn't have the weapons,
08:32it can't send them.
08:33Right.
08:34So it needs to make sure that it's going to send what it's got and it's going to try to
08:37provide it.
08:38But what it can do is guarantee that the next administration and the Congress are going
08:45to continue substantial levels of assistance to Ukraine.
08:49The Europeans are looking for ways to boost their own spending.
08:53But you know, that's that's hard.
08:56And they also don't have vast quantities of weapons on the shelves.
09:00Right.
09:01I mean, so it's a it's a really huge gap that the U.S. would leave if it really does cut
09:07off assistance or even shrink it for that matter.
09:11And just finally, Blinken, he also referred to Russian and North Korean maneuvers in relation
09:17to what's happening in Ukraine, describing it as a two way street, that relationship.
09:22So what might Moscow do to strengthen, do you believe, North Korea's military capacity
09:27if it were to come to that?
09:28Look, I think the logic for North Korea of sending troops to Russia is probably they
09:33get some battlefield experience.
09:37There might be additional side deals for some sorts of weapons production or something
09:43of that sort.
09:44But really, it's been the North Koreans sending weapons to Russia recently.
09:48I think, you know, it's kind of watch watch this space for the Russian North Korean cooperation.
09:54It's clearly become a very, a very tight partnership.
09:58But what each of these countries gets out of it, I think we're all we're all still not
10:04entirely clear on.
10:06Olga, we'll have to leave it there for now.
10:07But thank you so much for your time with us this evening.
10:10That's Olga Oliker, Programme Director for Europe and Central Asia at the International
10:14Crisis Group.
10:15That is it from us for now.
10:17Up next, it's IANA.