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Today's Weather, 5 P.M. | Nov. 15, 2024

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Transcript
00:00Good afternoon, this is our latest update on the two typhoons that are being monitored by Pag-asa,
00:05the Severe Tropical Storm Ophel and the Typhoon Pipito.
00:08So let's first look at the situation regarding Severe Tropical Storm Ophel.
00:12So this is already out of our area of responsibility,
00:16and earlier at 4 o'clock, it was at 205 kilometers west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes.
00:22The strong wind was blowing up to 100 kilometers per hour, close to the middle of it,
00:27and when it hit, it reached up to 125 kilometers per hour.
00:31This is in the direction of north-northwest, at a speed of 15 kilometers per hour.
00:36But even though this is already out of our area of responsibility,
00:40because of its wide radius, we are still expecting,
00:43we still have a high wind signal number one here in the north-east of Luzon.
00:48So we will see in our forecast track of Severe Tropical Storm Ophel,
00:52possibly, by tomorrow early morning,
00:55it will enter the north-northwestern boundary of our area of responsibility again.
01:01It will pass Taiwan until Humina, as a low pressure by Monday.
01:07So even though this Severe Tropical Storm Ophel is out of the PAR,
01:10this is the reason why we still have a warning signal in Batanes,
01:14wind signal number one,
01:16because its radius is still close to the center of Severe Tropical Storm Ophel.
01:21So this is the highlight,
01:23in Severe Tropical Storm Ophel, what we are talking about is
01:26Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal Number One in Batanes.
01:30What are our countrymen expecting in Batanes?
01:32Occasional winds.
01:35Let's not forget, in terms of rainfall,
01:37it is possible that there will be occasional rains.
01:40So as much as possible, listen to the update of the forecast
01:43about Severe Tropical Storm Ophel,
01:47and continue to consult their local government
01:50and local disaster risk reduction managers
01:52for continuous disaster risk preparation and mitigation measures.
01:58Meanwhile, in terms of rainfall,
02:01Severe Tropical Storm Ophel is expected to have moderate to heavy rains
02:06here in Batanes area.
02:09It is still possible that there will be localised flooding,
02:12especially in areas with low-lying areas
02:17and in areas near rivers,
02:19it is possible that the water level will rise.
02:22So our countrymen should remain alert
02:25here in Batanes area,
02:27even if it is only the Severe Tropical Storm Wind Signal Number One
02:29that has raised the area.
02:31Meanwhile, in terms of typhoon Pepito,
02:34which is within our air responsibility,
02:37earlier at 4 o'clock, it was at 465 kilometers
02:40east of G1 Eastern Samar.
02:42Pepito has a strong wind that reaches up to 150 kilometers per hour
02:46near its center,
02:48and the downpour reaches up to 185 kilometers per hour.
02:52This is moving in the direction of west-northwest
02:55at a speed of 13 kilometers per hour.
02:57So we can see that the center of the typhoon Pepito is still offshore,
03:02but its thick clouds are slowly reaching
03:07some parts of Eastern Visayas
03:10and some parts of the northeastern part of Mindanao.
03:13So this is what we are hoping for
03:15due to the continuous approach of the typhoon Pepito
03:17to the landmass of our country.
03:19Let us anticipate its movement
03:22throughout the forecast period
03:24in the next 3 to 5 days.
03:26So this is the location of Pepito
03:28earlier at 2 o'clock in the afternoon.
03:30And tomorrow at 2 o'clock in the afternoon,
03:33its center is estimated to be
03:35almost near the northeastern part of Eastern Visayas.
03:40It is possible for a landfall here
03:42in the northeastern part of the area
03:44in the coming Sunday morning.
03:47And on Sunday afternoon,
03:49it is possible for a landfall
03:51either in the northeastern part of Pulilo Island
03:53or here in the mainland of the province of Quezon.
03:57And then during Sunday afternoon
03:59until Monday morning,
04:01it will pass through some parts
04:03of the central Luzon and northern Luzon area.
04:05Until the landmass continues to pass
04:08in the coming Monday morning
04:10and our area of responsibility
04:12will continue to emerge
04:14in the coming Monday afternoon.
04:16Now, what does our forecast track show?
04:20The typhoon is not just a landfall.
04:22It is not just this center.
04:24It is called a reduce.
04:26So even if the typhoon
04:28reaches the center
04:30in the northeastern part of Eastern Visayas
04:32tomorrow afternoon,
04:34it will have an effect
04:36on the southern Luzon and Visayas.
04:38That is also the reason why
04:40even if the typhoon is still far away,
04:42aside from the lead time
04:44before you feel the effect,
04:46the movement we expect
04:48will have the potential
04:50for the warning signals
04:52to be higher
04:54in some parts of our country
04:56that will be directly affected
04:58by the typhoon Pepito.
05:02So now, let's look at
05:04the wind signals that are high in some parts of our country.
05:06Wind signal number 2
05:08is here in the eastern portion
05:10of northern Samar and northeastern portion
05:12of Samar, highlighted in blue.
05:14With signal number 2,
05:16our lead time
05:18is 24 hours.
05:20So from
05:222 o'clock yesterday
05:24until 2 o'clock tomorrow afternoon,
05:26that is our lead time
05:28before we can feel
05:30the potential
05:32for the
05:34gale force wind
05:36here in the highlighted areas
05:38of yellow.
05:40Meanwhile, wind signal number 1
05:42is high in all areas
05:44highlighted in light blue.
05:46Here in the area of Aurora,
05:48Quezon, Polilo Island, Marinduque,
05:50Camarines Provinces, Norte and Sur,
05:52Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon,
05:54as well as in the area of Masbate.
05:56In the Visayas area,
05:58wind signal number 1 in the remaining portion
06:00of northern Samar,
06:02eastern Samar,
06:04and in the area of Biliran.
06:06Our countrymen,
06:08wind signal number 1
06:10in their area, but generally
06:12in fair weather conditions.
06:14Earlier, we showed in our latest satellite image
06:16that the thick clouds
06:18are slowly
06:20approaching the eastern Visayas
06:22and the northeastern part of Mindanao.
06:24Tomorrow, when the center
06:26of our forecast track
06:28is on the northeastern coast
06:30of the eastern Visayas,
06:32then likely,
06:34this cloud will have a lot to carry.
06:36This cloud will slowly move
06:38from the initially affected
06:40eastern Visayas towards the southern
06:42Luzon area. And in our forecast track,
06:44as it moves towards
06:46Catanduanes, as it moves
06:48towards the Quezon area,
06:50the chances of rain will also gradually increase.
06:52Maybe now,
06:54you haven't experienced rain yet.
06:56Wind signal number 1,
06:58our forecast track is 36 hours.
07:00Starting at 2 p.m. today,
07:02until 2 p.m. tomorrow,
07:0424 hours.
07:062 p.m. on Sunday,
07:0836 hours.
07:10So our lead time, before we actually feel it,
07:1236 hours or less.
07:14Why less? Because the closest
07:16exposed to the storm,
07:18may be less than 36 hours,
07:20is the actual lead time
07:22before they feel it.
07:24In the farthest part of the storm,
07:26it may be the entire 36 hours
07:28before they actually feel it.
07:30And we will repeat
07:32the warning signal,
07:34even though we are only at wind signal number 2,
07:36as the storm approaches,
07:38we may have a higher
07:40wind signal.
07:42Because if we go back,
07:44actually, before the landfall here towards
07:46Catanduanes,
07:48it may still reach the super-typhoon category.
07:50Fortunately,
07:52for the super-typhoon category,
07:54we're not ruling out that possibility
07:56before the landfall here towards
07:58Catanduanes area.
08:00And we will also go back, earlier,
08:02we explained the area probability.
08:04So for our countrymen,
08:06not only Catanduanes should be good,
08:08not only Pulilo Island
08:10or Lalawigan-Angkeso should be good,
08:12or only Tatawilinan Centro
08:14should be good.
08:16All places with warning signals
08:18should be good, regardless of
08:20whether you have higher warning signals
08:22the next day or
08:24you're only at wind signal number 1.
08:26If you're at Direct Patmangena Centro,
08:28or the storm is approaching,
08:30even though you're far from the center,
08:32we should always be prepared for the worst-case scenario.
08:36Now, we mentioned
08:38the currently wind signals.
08:40It's possible that there will be higher
08:42warning signals in our next
08:44Tropical Cyclone Bulletin.
08:46In terms of
08:48rainfall,
08:50Pepito is located
08:52offshore, northeast of
08:54Eastern Visayas.
08:56So, from this afternoon until tomorrow,
08:58the significant amount of
09:00rains,
09:02with the potential of localized flooding,
09:04in low-lying areas,
09:06highly urbanized, isolated
09:08cases of landslide,
09:10here in Sorsogon, Northern Samar and
09:12Eastern Samar. But that doesn't mean
09:14you won't experience rain in the
09:16Eastern Visayas.
09:18We might experience light to moderate rainfall.
09:20What we highlight
09:22in terms of rainfall, when we
09:24issue a weather advisory,
09:26it starts in the category of moderate
09:28to heavy, yellow.
09:30And then higher categories,
09:32heavy to intense, then intense to torrential.
09:34Because this is what we believe,
09:36that in this amount of rain,
09:38that might fall in one area,
09:40there are potential impacts.
09:42Okay?
09:44So, what we see on the map today,
09:46moderate to heavy rains,
09:48let's repeat, from this afternoon until tomorrow.
09:50Tomorrow,
09:52from Saturday afternoon until Sunday afternoon,
09:54we will notice
09:56that we suddenly have a wider area
09:58with rainfall.
10:00There are areas where we will reach intense to torrential.
10:02This is Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur,
10:04Catanduanes, Alba, and Sorsogon.
10:06Meanwhile, heavy to intense,
10:08Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Masbate,
10:10the entire Quezon province,
10:12including Pulilo Island and La Huiga ng Aurora.
10:14Why is our forecast like this?
10:16Moderate to heavy,
10:18here in Samar, Biliran, Leyte,
10:20Romblon, Marinduque,
10:22the remaining part of the Calabarzon area,
10:24Metro Manila,
10:26Bulacan, Pampanga, and Bataan.
10:28So, why is it that between
10:30Saturday afternoon until Sunday afternoon,
10:32we have this much rainfall?
10:34We showed in the forecast track,
10:36that on Saturday,
10:38or on the
10:40upcoming weekend,
10:42it is possible for this to landfall here,
10:44in other parts of Catanduanes,
10:46then move towards La Huiga ng Quezon.
10:48So, as I mentioned,
10:50as the storm approaches,
10:52the thick clouds that can bring rain
10:54will become wider.
10:56So, this should also be a guidance
10:58to our local government units
11:00and local disaster reduction managers
11:02for the
11:04threat of
11:06floods,
11:08especially in remote areas,
11:10for communities
11:12that are close to rivers,
11:14because it is possible that the water
11:16that will go to the rivers of your
11:18neighboring province
11:20will go to your town in August.
11:22So, maybe you have experienced
11:24heavy rainfall,
11:26for example, in the northern part of your province,
11:28and then in the middle,
11:30the central part,
11:32then the flood of their rivers
11:34will go to your area,
11:36and then suddenly,
11:38the water level will rise,
11:40and then,
11:42for the communities
11:44that are close to rivers,
11:46landslides,
11:48previously affected by the
11:50Bicol region,
11:52so,
11:54a little rain,
11:56landslides,
11:58landslides,
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