U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to take power on Jan. 20, 2025. The geopolitical landscape has changed significantly in the four years since he left office. What can Taiwan and China expect from Trump this time around? Will his second presidency bring another trade war? How will his pick for U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio, be able to deal with China while under Beijing sanctions? And could Elon Musk – who is dubbed “protector of the country” by Chinese, be a go-between to help bridge the U.S.-China divide?
On this episode of Correspondents, Chris Buckley, chief China correspondent for The New York Times, and Vic Chiang, a reporter and researcher for The Washington Post’s China bureau, join host Louise Watt for a conversation on what a second Trump term will mean for Taiwan, China and the world.
On this episode of Correspondents, Chris Buckley, chief China correspondent for The New York Times, and Vic Chiang, a reporter and researcher for The Washington Post’s China bureau, join host Louise Watt for a conversation on what a second Trump term will mean for Taiwan, China and the world.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome. I'm Louise Watt and this is Correspondence, where we talk about the
00:05news and what's going on behind the news with reporters around the region.
00:23It's the election everyone's still talking about. Donald Trump has stormed to victory
00:28in the US, winning not only the presidency but control of the House and the Senate.
00:34In short, he's got a lot of power. So what does this mean for Taiwan and China? How will
00:39Trump, who campaigned heavily on tariffs, deal with Taipei and Beijing? And could Elon
00:46Musk, now in Trump's inner circle, play a diplomatic role between Beijing and Washington?
00:53We'll take a closer look.
00:55So ahead, we investigate why China's Coast Guard has taken an unprecedented role in
01:01military drills around Taiwan, as Beijing seeks to push its territorial claims over
01:07the island. Plus, he's the Communist Party's chief ideologue whose job it is to win over
01:13Taiwan. But just who is Wang Huning?
01:17To discuss all of this, I'm joined by Chris Buckley of the New York Times, who reports
01:22on China and Taiwan from here in Taipei. And Vic John, a reporter and researcher for The
01:29Washington Post's China Bureau. Thank you both for joining me on Correspondence.
01:35Pleased to be here.
01:36Let's start with the man of the moment, Donald Trump, US President in waiting. He has a long
01:42list of things he'll say he'll do. Deporting illegal immigrants, strengthening the economy,
01:48stopping wars. Chris, how important do you think Taiwan is going to be to him?
01:54I think even if Donald Trump doesn't realise it now, Taiwan is actually going to be very
01:58important to him and his administration the next four years. Like you were saying, he's
02:03got an awfully long list of other things to deal with, including migration at home, the
02:09US economy, the Ukraine war, the Middle East and so on. But we've seen from Donald Trump's
02:15comments that one of his focuses will be the trade relationship with China and the broader
02:20relationship with China. Now, if he wants to deal with China, he's also going to have
02:25to deal with the issue of Taiwan.
02:27So Vic, Donald Trump will have to deal with Taiwan, whether he feels at the moment it's
02:31an issue for him or not. How do you see this?
02:34Well, what we've seen from Donald Trump for now is that his comments is a little bit different
02:41from what Biden has been commenting on Taiwan. For example, before the election, on his campaign
02:48trail, Trump had received an interview from Fox News. He was asked by the anchor at Fox
02:54News whether Trump will come to Taiwan's defence or try now to launch an attack on Taiwan.
03:02And Trump's response at that time was that he's not going to answer this question because
03:08he might jeopardize his negotiating abilities with China. What we can expect is that we're
03:16probably not going to see in Trump what we have seen in Biden, which over the past four
03:22years he has said publicly four times that he's going to come to Taiwan's defence if
03:28China is going to launch an attack on Taiwan. And that is going to be something that the
03:34Taiwanese government has to think about.
03:37Well, let's look at what the Taiwanese government's response was. Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-de,
03:43he sent his congratulations to Donald Trump on his victory. He wrote on X, I'm confident
03:50that the longstanding Taiwan-US partnership built on shared values and interests will
03:56continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability and lead to greater prosperity for
04:01us all. Chris, the US relationship is obviously very important to Taiwan. The US is Taiwan's
04:09biggest international backer. It's bound by its own law to make sure Taiwan has the means
04:15to defend itself. What do you think, given that Trump is widely accepted to be unpredictable
04:25and transactional in his dealings, what can the Taiwanese government expect from him,
04:29do you think?
04:30Well, I think the Taiwanese government has made it clear that it's very committed to
04:34building a constructive relationship with the Trump administration, no matter what he
04:39says from day to day, and also working through Congress, where Taiwan has a lot of friends
04:44as well, to build a strong relationship with the incoming administration. As you say, Trump
04:50is very unpredictable, and the makeup of his new administration is still not fully formed,
04:56but it's a mixture of people with very different views about China, some of them very hawkish.
05:03But I think amid all the unpredictability, we've seen Trump repeatedly throughout the
05:08election campaign and previously focus on two issues very relevant to Taiwan. One of
05:14them is his demand that the Taiwanese government significantly increase its defense spending.
05:21He said up to 10% of GDP. I'm not sure if that's possible, but the demand is there.
05:27And also he has put Taiwan in his sights as one of those economies that needs to significantly
05:33reduce its trade surplus with the United States. Just finally related to that as well, he's
05:39made these accusations, I don't think experts entirely buy them, that Taiwan has in effect
05:45stolen semiconductor superiority from the United States. So amid all the unpredictability,
05:51I think there can be some predictability that those three issues, defense, trade and semiconductors,
05:58are going to be the big themes in Taiwan-US relations the next four years.
06:03And it's interesting, isn't it? Because of course, we've seen Trump before. There's already
06:08been four years of a President Trump. And at that time, Trump was very popular in Taiwan,
06:15wasn't he? To the extent that when he lost the 2020 election to Biden, there was actually
06:21a lot of disappointment among the Taiwanese public. But Vic, you've been speaking to people
06:26who say they're concerned this time about Trump. What's changed?
06:32Well, I think in Taiwan, the discussion about the US election this time is less fervent
06:39compared to four years ago. And at that time, as you said, there were a lot of Trump supporters
06:47in Taiwan. And because at that time, people were pretty concerned that a Biden administration
06:54might foster stronger ties with China, and thus sacrificing Taiwan's interest. But what
07:02we have seen over the past four years, that is not what had happened. What had actually
07:07happened was that there was stronger bipartisan support coming from the US for Taiwan. And
07:14I think in Taiwan, people have seen that kind of support. And therefore, their anxiety about
07:21the election result this time is kind of dialed down a little bit.
07:26I just add one thing on top of what Vic was saying, which is, when we talk about relations
07:31in the world, we often focus on like Taiwan and the United States. We have to remember
07:36that Trump is coming in at a time when the whole international landscape is very uncertain
07:40and changing. And one of the big issues that will have knock-on effects for Taiwan is how
07:45the new administration deals with the Ukraine war. And we've seen Donald Trump already promise
07:51that he's going to fix the war, stop the war very quickly, even before he comes into
07:56office, he said. Now, that might not be possible, but the knock-on effects of the new administration's
08:02decisions on how it deals with Ukraine, what sort of peace Ukraine has to accept, possibly,
08:09that will have knock-on effects for much of the rest of the world, but particularly for
08:13Taiwan, given how much focus there's been here about the lessons from Taiwan. And that
08:18is sort of being a test case of American commitment in the rest of the world.
08:24And what's your feeling from the people you're talking to? Because definitely when people
08:28outside Taiwan, they're always looking at a timetable when China might possibly attack
08:34Taiwan. And given that Trump has said his presidency will be a peaceful one, he will
08:39end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, on the other hand, he's unpredictable. So
08:45how do you see the likelihood of China launching some kind of attack on Taiwan? Has that likelihood
08:52gone up, given that Trump has now been elected?
08:56I'm not one of these people who believes that Xi Jinping has a calendar behind his desk
09:01in which he's ticking off the days to a particular time for a move on Taiwan. I think it's much
09:07more complicated than that. As you say, Donald Trump has said he wants to be a president
09:12who presides over a period of peace, but his other slogan has been peace through strength.
09:18And so I think part of what we may see is also a renewed effort to rebuild American
09:24military strength, particularly in this part of the world. Now, how China responds to that
09:29is going to be very important as well. So it might not be a period of war that we're
09:34talking about, but those moves by a Trump administration could bring deep tensions with
09:41China in this region and around Taiwan.
09:44Okay, well, as you've both said, actually, the US-Taiwan relationship depends a lot on
09:48China. Let's turn now to China-US relations under Trump. So Chinese President Xi Jinping
09:57congratulated Trump on his victory and said the US and China must find the right way to
10:03get along for the good of both countries and the world. But for his new team, he's picked
10:10some quite hardline, more hawkish figures on China than Beijing's been dealing with
10:17up to now. He's nominated Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike
10:24Waltz as National Security Advisor, both harsh China critics. Chris, what kind of signal
10:32do you think this sends to Beijing?
10:36Well, sitting here in Taipei, I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on the inner workings
10:41of the Trump circle. Even in Washington, that seems to be a big challenge. But I think what
10:45we can see, even from this distance, that Donald Trump has again and again returned
10:50to the importance of the economic and trade relationship with China as being the issue
10:55that he wants to focus on. Now, that doesn't mean that Marco Rubio and other people who
11:00share more hawkish views on China are going to be entirely silent, but it does seem that
11:05they're going to have to put themselves behind Donald Trump's priorities. But as we were
11:09saying as well, Louise, no matter what Donald Trump may want, in the end, the China-US relationship
11:13is defined by so much more as well. And that security-military relationship is going to
11:20remain a point of tension between them. And if we do see a more assertive Trump administration
11:26in this part of the world, that's going to, I think, quite likely lead to new tensions,
11:32even as Trump is trying to build some sort of trade deal with China.
11:35We'll get on to the trade relationship in a moment, but I just want to stick with Marco
11:39Rubio for a second, because Marco Rubio has actually been sanctioned twice by Beijing.
11:45He's banned from travelling to China over his support for the Hong Kong protests and
11:51Uyghurs in Xinjiang. How will that work? How is it possible for a Secretary of State
11:59to do business with China, do you think?
12:01I think it might create some sort of a dilemma, similar to the one that we see when
12:07China appointed a defence minister a few years ago. And he was also sanctioned by the US
12:15over China's arms deals with Russia. So there were a lot of tensions and
12:23this process of rebuilding trust.
12:26I would guess in the end that the Chinese government, whatever its policies, does also
12:29have a pragmatic streak. And if it takes quietly ignoring those sanctions to have meetings with
12:36Marco Rubio, I'm sure they'll go ahead. China-US relationship is really conducted between the
12:42presidents and the people around them and not purely through the State Department. So
12:46who's going to be China's Trump whisperer in that relationship? We don't know. People talk
12:52about Elon Musk. I'd be surprised if he's the one who's carrying all the messages, but
12:57he is in the background now as well.
12:59Well, he is very interesting, isn't he? Because he has a role in Trump's new administration.
13:05It's a government efficiency role. It's not a role to do with foreign policy. It's not a role
13:10to do with China. And yet his company Tesla, clearly deeply invested in China. He has
13:17relatively friendly relations with the Chinese leadership. He's met Xi Jinping. He's met the
13:23Premier Li Chang many times. Vic, he could be a good go between Washington and Beijing,
13:30don't you think?
13:31I think this is the kind of hope that a lot of Chinese people are hoping for as well. And if
13:37you look at Chinese social media, Weibo, after the US announced its election result, people were
13:44all talking about Elon Musk. Elon Musk has this nickname in Chinese called Ma Baoguo, which
13:51literal translation would be Musk, the protector of the country. And by country here, it meant
13:57China. So you can kind of tell the kind of popularity that Elon Musk has in China.
14:03So he's seen as the protector because of all his investments within China. The world's richest
14:08man really would throw all his weight around against anything that would affect his investments.
14:14Yeah, I think that also says that people hope that he can be this potential intermediary between
14:20China and the US and he can be that buffer to improve the China-US relations.
14:27OK, well, let's look now at one of Trump's big campaign promises, tariffs. Trump said before the
14:33election that he would put a blanket tariff of 10 to 20 per cent on all imports, with additional
14:39tariffs of 60 per cent or higher on goods from China. Chris, last time Trump was president,
14:47there was a trade war between the US and China. Is it simply more of the same this time around?
14:52Well, who knows? It's a new Trump administration. It's a Trump administration
14:57who people in Washington say is even more untethered from the voices of the traditional
15:03foreign policy and trade establishment. So I think we have seen that Donald Trump,
15:08even if the 60 per cent tariff goal is not actually achieved, is very committed to
15:16exercising some sort of tariff-based rebalancing of trade with China, but also with other economies
15:24as well, including Taiwan. So I think it's going to be a continuing issue.
15:29It's clearly been a confrontational tone from Donald Trump on the campaign trail towards China.
15:34But could he be forced to work with China, given that he said he could end the war in Ukraine
15:41very quickly? China might have some leverage with Russia there. Chris,
15:47might he have to win Beijing over? It's difficult to tell, but I think we know
15:52a few things about how China conducts its foreign policy. And one of them is that,
15:58especially under Xi Jinping, there's been this fundamental commitment to the relationship with
16:03Russia under Vladimir Putin. And they can have their friction, most recently over Russia
16:10organising North Korean troops to go near the battlefields with Ukraine and things like that.
16:18But when it comes to that key relationship with Russia, Xi Jinping and his leadership will put
16:23up with an awful lot to maintain that relationship. So if you start thinking about scenarios where
16:29Trump administration may ask Xi Jinping to help on peace talks,
16:33I can't imagine that Xi Jinping would want to wager too much of the relationship with Russia
16:40on becoming a go-between there. I just don't see Xi Jinping seeing that in China's interest.
16:48All right, let's take a quick break for the moment. You're watching Correspondents on Taiwan+.
16:53Next up, we'll talk Chinese pressure on Taiwan in the form of influence campaigns and the Coast
17:00Guard. And we'll see what's on our guests' reporters' notebooks back in a moment.
17:13Welcome back to Correspondents. I'm Louise Watt.
17:16China's Coast Guard played an unprecedented role in military drills around Taiwan in October,
17:22participating in a simulated blockade of Taiwan and fully encircling the island.
17:29Vic, you've been reporting on this action by the Chinese Coast Guard.
17:34It's unusually aggressive behaviour from them. Why?
17:38It's an aggressive action coming from them, but also they are using a lot of different ways to
17:45communicate with the Taiwanese on this action. If we remember during the drill,
17:50the Chinese Coast Guard also put out this propaganda picture where the Coast Guard vessels
17:57encircle Taiwan in the shape of a heart. And seemingly they're saying that this encirclement
18:02is an act of love for their Taiwanese compatriots. But for the Taiwanese officials, of course,
18:08they don't see it as an act of love. The Chinese Coast Guard is overseen by the Central Military
18:14Commission, which is the top military agency in China, which is basically making them effectively
18:22a branch of the People's Liberation Army. For Taiwan, they are facing a lot more
18:29difficulties in dealing with the Chinese Coast Guard, not just because of the military tensions,
18:35but also because China is using these Coast Guards to launch a legal warfare by sending
18:41these Coast Guards, by involving these Coast Guards in the drills. They are basically saying that
18:46they are trying to turn Taiwan Strait and waters around Taiwan into their internal water, where
18:54they can legally conduct law enforcement activities, not just against Taiwan military,
19:01but also against other civilian ships. So Taiwan is receiving pressure on the seas,
19:08but it's not just that, is it? Because it's influenced campaigns as well. And Chris,
19:13you've been speaking to people, you know, the Communist Party official, whose job now is to
19:19convince Taiwanese of the merits of unification with China. What have you found out?
19:25I did some reporting on Wang Huning, who as head of China's United Front sector,
19:32part of his responsibility is dealing with political relations with Taiwan.
19:36And essentially, at the moment, that means dealing with Taiwanese opposition politicians
19:42and other groups. Previously, he was very involved in developing policies and techniques to
19:51deepen Chinese Communist Party control of opinion and social relations in China.
19:59And I think he's somebody who's now bringing that experience and those ideas to thinking through
20:05how the Chinese Communist Party can sharpen its influence within Taiwan,
20:10not simply at the government level, but also reaching deeper into Taiwanese society.
20:14Another part of China's influence campaigns is offering free trips to officials within Taiwan,
20:22like neighbourhood chiefs, the sort of the low level elected officials. Vic, you've been
20:28interviewing some of these neighbourhood chiefs that were invited to go on these free trips.
20:32What happens on these trips?
20:34A lot of these neighbourhood chiefs have shared with me their itinerary and how
20:40these trips were going. And it was interesting to see that for many of them, they just need to
20:45pay the flight tickets. And when they landed in China, they will cover everything from
20:51accommodation, transportation, you name it. And that will definitely include some propaganda
20:57sightseeing spots for them to visit to kind of like educate them how to love the motherland.
21:04But I'm also uncertain about how effective these kind of free trips or this kind of
21:10overture to the Taiwanese people are, because I also interviewed neighbourhood chiefs in Tainan,
21:17like he's really supportive of Lai Xingde, really supportive of DPP, but he still went on these
21:23trips. And the reason he told me was that he has to take up at least one spot, so that he can make
21:29sure that there will be one less person to be, quote, unquote, brainwashed by China. I'm not
21:36sure if the goal is to interfere with Taiwan's election, and I'm not really sure if they are
21:43like meeting the goal that China wants this free trip to have.
21:47Yeah, really, it's just perhaps giving some of these neighbourhood chiefs some free sightseeing.
21:52All right, so before we go, let's just go to our regular segment to end the show,
21:57what's on your reporter's notebook? What are you both covering at the moment or looking
22:02ahead to in the coming weeks, Chris?
22:05Well, in the coming weeks and coming months and coming years, Louise, I'm afraid.
22:09Is it Trump?
22:09It's back to the Trump administration again. But I think particularly in Taiwan,
22:14we're very much aware of wanting to tell Taiwan's story as Taiwan, not simply as a sort of a
22:20pawn or a Lego piece in the relationship between China and the United States. So we've got
22:27stories coming up about Taiwanese culture and religion.
22:30Beck, what's on your reporter's notebook?
22:33Coming back to the question that we were beginning with was to see how
22:37important Taiwan might be to Trump. I think we will have some indicators to look at this thing.
22:44Like when Trump inaugurates on January 20th, we will see whether he will invite the current
22:52Taiwanese representative to the US to his inauguration. The Biden administration did so
22:58for the first time, invited Xiaoping King, who was the Taiwan representative to the US,
23:03to his inauguration.
23:05And that set up the Biden administration's support for Taiwan, really, the rock solid
23:09support, that phrase that kept getting repeated throughout these four years.
23:14So we can see what kind of foundation that Trump will
23:17pave for the future of Taiwan-US relations.
23:19Okay. Vic John of The Washington Post, Chris Buckley of The New York Times,
23:24thank you very much, both of you, for joining me on Correspondence.
23:27Thank you. It's been fun.
23:29Thank you for having us.
23:30And thank you for watching. If you're seeing this on YouTube, subscribe to the Correspondence
23:35playlist to get the latest episodes. I'm Louise Watt. Take care. I'll see you next time.