U.S. President Donald Trump recently embarked on his second term in office with a flurry of executive orders, addressing topics from immigration to climate change and birthright citizenship. He also delivered fresh tariff threats against China and other nations.
On the latest episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, TaiwanPlus reporter Leslie Liao speaks with Steve Yates, senior research fellow at Washington-based The Heritage Foundation and a former deputy national security advisor, to understand what Trump’s early moves mean for Taiwan and China.
On the latest episode of Zoom In Zoom Out, TaiwanPlus reporter Leslie Liao speaks with Steve Yates, senior research fellow at Washington-based The Heritage Foundation and a former deputy national security advisor, to understand what Trump’s early moves mean for Taiwan and China.
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00:00Welcome to Zoom In Zoom Out, your look at news from Taiwan and around the world.
00:18Donald Trump has been sworn in as the 47th U.S. president, and many are wondering what
00:23a second Trump administration would mean for the global world order.
00:28Joining me today is the Honorable Steve Yates, Senior Research Fellow for China and National
00:33Security at the Heritage Foundation and a former Deputy National Security Advisor under
00:38Vice President Dick Cheney.
00:40And he's going to be sharing with us some of his thoughts.
00:42Steve, thank you so much for joining us.
00:44It's a pleasure to join you.
00:46Yeah, let's jump right in.
00:47And let's zoom in really quickly.
00:49What can we expect for U.S. town relations under the second Trump administration?
00:54Well, first and foremost, I think the biggest challenge is there's going to be a lot of
00:58activity.
01:00People have already seen with the inaugural and initial executive orders that won't at
01:05first appear to be related to U.S.-Taiwan relations, but it actually is very important
01:10for U.S.-Taiwan relations and others.
01:12And so the investment in reviving American energy to have an abundant, affordable, resilient
01:22supply should put the United States in a position to be able to export more to Asian partners.
01:29That would be vital to our alliance system to have a Pacific path to supply energy and
01:34not be subjected too much to the Straits of Malacca as a potential choke point.
01:40And so that's something that is domestic, and it's a very high vocal domestic priority,
01:46but very relevant to thinking about the durability of America's posture in the Indo-Pacific.
01:53When it comes to the U.S.-Taiwan relationship, there's a few things that are in the defense
01:58realm that should pick up and move forward.
02:01There's homework that the United States needs to do to improve the efficiency of our defense
02:06manufacturing supply chain.
02:09We've made commitments to Taiwan and others that are behind schedule.
02:13That has to get fixed.
02:14Hopefully this new Department of Government Efficiency and the new leadership at the Pentagon
02:20will succeed in shortening those time horizons and maybe even reducing costs.
02:25That's vital to us, but vital to our partners too.
02:28The economic agenda is fully open.
02:31So whether it is looking at kind of the joint development in high-tech semiconductors, but
02:37not just semiconductors in the United States, Taiwan's investment in America is welcomed.
02:43I think there's work for the United States to do to make sure that that succeeds and
02:48maybe grows a bit.
02:50And I think that when we look at everything from energy to defense to just manufacturing,
02:58having secure supply chains, reliable partnerships are going to be key.
03:03And so having Taiwan play into what the U.S. does to rebalance and invigorate our alliances
03:10with Japan, Korea, and others will also be an area of opportunity.
03:14When looking at the Taiwan-U.S. relationship, what will the Trump administration be prioritizing,
03:20whether it's getting Taiwan the backlogs of weapons that the U.S. owes it or some other
03:26defense policy that we're not seeing here?
03:28Well, I think that there's going to be some familiar themes.
03:31If you look at how things were talked about during the campaign, it wasn't specific to
03:35Taiwan, but there's kind of a few baskets.
03:38One is he wants to lessen tensions.
03:40And so whether you're looking at East Asia or Europe or the Middle East, he's been pretty
03:46aggressive in early conversations about what can be done by way of dialogue and negotiation
03:52to lessen tensions and get the agenda set back on peace and prosperity themes.
03:59He's already opened up channels of communication with Xi Jinping, and that will continue not
04:04necessarily to concede things, but to get a temperature take on where things are.
04:11When those leaders last really engaged as leader to leader, that was in the middle of
04:16a COVID pandemic that President Xi lied about to President Trump's face.
04:23And the world paid dear consequences for that.
04:27The fentanyl pandemic, which included taking my daughter, just exploded around the United
04:32States over the last four years.
04:34And so that is a priority that existed before, but is greater now.
04:40And the phase one trade agreement that was negotiated was not followed through.
04:45And so the president wants to get a sense of, OK, that did not succeed.
04:50Where are we and what do you put back on the table?
04:53And so I think that the lessening of tensions and then taking that temperature, but then
04:57rebalancing economic relationships and rebalancing security responsibilities is a theme in every
05:04one of our alliances and partnerships.
05:06I think the leadership in Taiwan is familiar with this.
05:09I think one of the most sensitive challenges is going to be the divided government in Taiwan
05:14and kind of the divided politics about budgeting and where things might go in that defense
05:20and other area.
05:22This is a really unfortunate time for domestic politics to play too large a role when I think
05:28from the United States and regional partner point of view, the national security stakes
05:31are pretty high for all of us.
05:33How does Taiwan go about reconciling its budget issues, particularly with those in the defense
05:39realm where, you know, U.S. policymakers have a stake in saying Taiwan needs to raise its
05:44defense spending?
05:45Well, I mean, I'm sensitive to the notion that Taiwan has its own constitutional process
05:51that it has to go through for special budgets and regular budgets.
05:57And there are democratically elected representatives in Taiwan who are duking it out on being checks
06:03and balances with one another.
06:05That is the process that people sacrifice their lives and struggling for freedom and
06:10democracy wanted to get to.
06:12But now we have sort of the difficult business of how do you in a competitive and divided
06:17democracy reach consensus on national security priorities, including the priorities that
06:23your most important partners might share with you?
06:28That's the heavy responsibility for the president and the executive administration in Taiwan.
06:33But it's also for the legislative leadership too.
06:36They have people who are in town from all parties here for the inauguration and otherwise.
06:42I don't speak for the Trump administration.
06:44They will speak for themselves pretty clearly.
06:46I think they're looking to see increases in defense budgets.
06:51But that's not the only thing.
06:53The significant progress being made on civilian resiliency, crisis management.
07:00These are steps in the right direction too to prove that the people of Taiwan are committed
07:04to their defense and survival and have thought through in a meaningful way how to survive
07:11coercion, boycotts, other kinds of gray zone kind of activities that could pressure Taiwan.
07:18So they'll be the high profile, big ticket items that get debated on budgets.
07:22But some of these other areas help convey the message that the Taiwan people take this
07:27seriously, are committed to doing all they can and are making progress on what they can.
07:32If they do that, then I hope that Taiwan's leadership of all parties can communicate
07:36back to the United States that this is what we're doing.
07:39We're prepared to do more, but we need your help to be able to do more.
07:44Because in some ways I'd have to admit as an American, American policy has gotten in
07:48the way of Taiwan having all of the options it might otherwise have for its own self-defense.
07:54You said that the goal moving forward will be to reduce tensions.
07:57Now one of the red lines that Chinese President Xi Jinping has said for this new incoming
08:03administration is on the topic of Taiwan.
08:06But it's likely that continued U.S. support for Taiwan, whether that's joint training
08:10programs or continued arms sales, would likely rub China the wrong way in relations to those
08:18red lines.
08:19What can the U.S. and Taiwan do to continue its regular exchanges while at the same time
08:24reducing tensions?
08:25Well, I have every expectation that the regular exchanges will continue.
08:30But we would all have to take a step back and admit that the regular exchanges and the
08:34regular programs of the last 30 years have not been enough.
08:38That over the course of that many years, China's capabilities have raced ahead and our allies'
08:46defense capabilities have not kept pace.
08:49And part of that is on the United States also not keeping pace.
08:52So we all have some catching up to do.
08:54I think that having creative conversations with neighbors in areas that might not be
09:00traditional defense.
09:01I think Coast Guard to Coast Guard cooperation in the broader region is really, really important
09:06for maritime security and building up confidence in the region.
09:11I think that cooperation between Japan and Philippines is a really important investment
09:16in Taiwan's security and kind of that first island chain having an alternative path to
09:23peace and prosperity.
09:25So any of those joint efforts, I think, is an investment in a good and stable future
09:30on defense.
09:31Great.
09:32Mr. Yates, let's zoom out really quickly and talk about China because that is where a lot
09:38of your research is.
09:40Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said that China is the biggest threat to the U.S.'s
09:46interests.
09:47And Taiwan and the U.S., they're maintaining very, albeit unofficial, those relations are
09:52growing very strongly.
09:54What does it mean for the U.S. to balance this unofficial relationship with Taiwan and
09:59also confront this threat from China without this escalation in the Indo-Pacific region?
10:04Well, first, I'd say Secretary Rubio knows these issues exceedingly well.
10:10He might be the best prepared Secretary of State we've ever had in this policy area.
10:16He has very clear views that are in alignment with the president's.
10:20So when he's talking about the China challenge, I think most Americans agree that in terms
10:26of an external challenge to the United States, it's by far the most significant we've faced
10:31in maybe two generations.
10:33Now, it's also a different kind of challenge because it's comprehensive.
10:36There are elements in our domestic policy and politics that relate to CCP malign influences.
10:43There are areas of strategic communication that you might call information warfare, where
10:49they're very, very aggressive.
10:50We have issues related to media platforms and their ownership with the current TikTok
10:55debate that are ongoing.
10:56These are things that didn't exist in the Cold War with the Soviet Union.
11:01It's just sort of a testament to, I think, the failed bet that all of us made on engagement
11:06with China.
11:07So Secretary Rubio has his hands full, but he is extremely knowledgeable on this.
11:13I think he's going to be pushing back by making sure that if the United States and our allies
11:19are doing all we can to protect ourselves, to thrive economically among ourselves, to
11:27increase secure supply chains and lessen dependencies on those who seek to do us harm, all of those
11:33trends lead us to a more peaceful path with regard to coexisting with the People's Republic
11:41of China.
11:42Looking at this giant checkerboard here, what's going to be some of Trump's biggest priorities
11:48when looking at the China challenge right here?
11:51Well, really, it comes back to energy and raw materials.
11:56Some of our most sensitive supply chain vulnerabilities.
12:00If you're going to be a high tech manufacturing export economy, you have to have access to
12:05rare earth materials.
12:06You have to have access to a lot of different minerals, raw materials.
12:10In recent decade or so, People's Republic of China has monopolized supply chains in
12:16some of these areas.
12:18We have to do some things together with our allies to reprocess, store and mine for these
12:25things to lessen that dependency.
12:28If we don't do that, then there's leverage that I think is insurmountable, where China
12:33feels like they have ways that can cripple us in a time of crisis, and they themselves
12:38have insulated themselves against sanctions.
12:40On filming day, we're only on the second day of President Trump's second term, but from
12:45what you've seen, has there been a shift in President Trump's China policy, whether he's
12:51being more lenient or being more tough?
12:53It is too soon to draw any conclusions about, broadly speaking, where this is going.
12:59In general, there's a lot of reasons why people should believe he will have relatively tough
13:03policies on national security, relatively aggressive policies to rebalance the economic
13:09relationship, and to try to make sure that there's some accountability for COVID, for
13:14fentanyl, for some other issues that have had a massively damaging impact on the American
13:21people. And we know that the CCP is responsible.
13:24So there's every reason to believe those things will move forward.
13:27But there's also every reason to believe that he will seek to make some kind of a deal that
13:32tries to find a stable, survivable resting place for U.S.-China relations to be so that
13:38you can manage the sort of tensions while continuing to pursue prosperity and security
13:45for our allies and partners.
13:47But living every day on the edge of a potential Taiwan crisis, South Sea crisis, Senkaku
13:53Islands crisis, that's not where President Trump wants to be.
13:57And so we'll see whether he's able to reset that sort of chessboard.
14:02But those things are going to be going on the first two days.
14:05The first hundred days are not going to be sufficient to draw conclusions.
14:09Well, Steve, we're just about out of time.
14:10But it's been so fascinating talking to you about the U.S.-Taiwan-China relationship under a
14:15second Trump administration.
14:16I hope we can have this conversation again soon.
14:19I look forward to it. Thank you.
14:20This has been Zoom In Zoom Out.
14:21For more stories from Taiwan, please download the Taiwan Plus app or follow our social
14:25media. I'm Leslie Leo in Washington, D.C.