IHSG tak mampu bertahan di jalur positif di sesi I Selasa (26/11). Mengutip RTI, IHSG -0,32% ke level 7.290,742. IDX-Finance -0,73% BMRI -2,28% BBRI -1,79% dan BBCA -1,23%. Saham perbankan Big Caps melemah terdampak profit taking usai naik tinggi di Senin. IDX-Infra -0,50% TLKM -0,73%, dan IDX-NonCycc -0,36% GGRM -1,12%.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us, and in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout today.
00:06Yesterday, GASAM Group returned to the red zone and was traded again at level 7200.
00:12And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 at 8788.723, as shown on your television screen later.
00:22And right now, we are connected via Zoom with Mr. Nicholas Darbawan, a Research Analyst at Mesta Indonesia Securities.
00:29We will go straight to him. Mr. Nicholas, good evening. How are you?
00:33Good evening, Mr. David. I'm fine, thank you.
00:36Yes, thank you too, Mr. Nicholas, for spending your time on IDX Channel.
00:40In the first session, Mr. Nicholas, the GASAM Group was able to continue trading at level 7200.
00:47In the first session, Mr. Nicholas, the GASAM Group was able to continue trading at level 7200.
00:57Intraday was able to trade at level 7341, but again, it returned to the red zone.
01:02In fact, following the closing of the second session today, the pressure on the GASAM Group is getting deeper.
01:08What can be described, Mr. Nicholas, related to the technical pattern of IHSG today, which is returning to the red zone?
01:16Okay, maybe for the technical pattern, we can see that IHSG was able to reach up to level 7300 yesterday.
01:22But if we look at it, based on the trading order book yesterday,
01:27mostly the trading was supported by retail.
01:30So if we look at it, today it tends to weaken. Why?
01:35Because the first profit-taking happened because of the style of retail traders who tend to scalping in the middle of a bearish market condition.
01:44So if we look at their trading time frame, it's still short-term.
01:49So the rebounds that were supported by the market yesterday were mostly supported by retail.
01:56And why is it mostly by retail?
01:59First, it's because of the important bargains at the support level, 7150 to 7100.
02:04We see that last week, last week, the accumulation was quite solid at that level.
02:10So if we look at it, the profit-taking that happened today is largely due to the fact that retail traders tend to have a shorter time frame for the current market conditions.
02:21Okay, next, Mr. Nicholas.
02:24Tomorrow, the stock market activity will be announced.
02:28There will be the PILCADA.
02:29Then on the other side, on Thursday, we will provide some data from the US.
02:34One of the focus is the inflation data.
02:37Then there will be the FOMC Minutes, which is the result of the previous meeting.
02:44Okay, maybe for this week's forecast, we can see that it should still move sideways.
02:50Because as Mr. David mentioned, this week's data is CPI and FOMC Minutes.
02:55And usually, if there is high-impact news from the US, the market will tend to wait and see.
03:02Especially for the emerging market, which is ESG.
03:05We see here, maybe the market level this week, we estimate the highest level is still at 7300 to 7320 for the resistance level.
03:15The support level, we estimate this week, is still in the range of 7250 to 7200.
03:22Okay, on the other side, in the middle of the presidential election, Donald Trump, the United States.
03:28Trump himself has indicated that it looks like a trade war.
03:32It will get hotter if compared to the previous leadership period.
03:36And these signals seem to be negatively responded by the market and the effect, some commodity prices.
03:42Then the investors are still worried about the future development.
03:45How big is the impact, especially to emerging market countries, including Indonesia, Mr. Nicholas?
03:51Yes, if we look at Trump's victory, from what we see now, the impact is quite big.
03:56To the emerging market, especially with the policy related to import tariffs.
04:01Approximately as big as 25%, which will certainly have a great impact.
04:05For Indonesia itself, this is worried about the pressure of the PMI manufacturer.
04:11Which for now, the PMI manufacturer is still contracted below level 50.
04:16In the middle, the weakness of domestic purchasing power, plus the trade balance, which recorded a smaller surplus.
04:23As a result, the increase in the dollar caused the inflated import goods.
04:27So if we look at it from a foreign perspective, why was the outflow quite large in the last month?
04:32Because the risk faced by the emerging market, especially Indonesia, is quite large from Trump's victory.
04:38So if we look at it, the outflow is quite clearly seen from the Dow Jones stock market.
04:44The move to the Dow Jones stock market, S&P and Nasdaq.
04:47Then also if we look at it, it is seen from the increase in the dollar.
04:52Okay, let's move on to the sector, sir.
04:54Banks or finance today are leading the weakness, when the day before it supported domestic purchasing power.
05:01You said earlier that investors are more in the direction of trading only for a short period of time.
05:06The stock market is currently waiting for development, especially from the global sentiment.
05:12I want to go to BMRI, sir.
05:14We will try to review BMRI.
05:16Interestingly, in the previous day's trading, BMRI was the highest in terms of stock strength.
05:22And today it is going in the opposite direction, namely breaking down the deepest weakness compared to other big cap banks.
05:28Analysis and recommendations for BMRI.
05:31Okay, as explained earlier, the trading timeframe for now is generally more scalping, short-term.
05:37So if we look at it, yesterday it was funny that the trading was led by Bang Mandiri, leading the strength.
05:43At the same time, today it is also the deepest, precisely because of the highest strength increase.
05:49We see that the market players are also prone to profit-taking, especially since BMRI has fallen.
05:55If we look at it, it's relatively deep enough.
05:58So for it to rebound to the highest level, or moreover, it also needs a fairly long accumulation at the support level.
06:06So maybe from a technical point of view, we estimate that Bang Mandiri will still move range or sideways in the price range.
06:136,600 for the resistance.
06:15For the support level, we expect it to be at the level of 6,300 to 6,200.
06:21So we expect for this week, the price will be relatively ranging at that level.
06:26Okay, for those who have profit-taking, sir, for BMRI.
06:30In fact, today the correction is above 2%.
06:34If you want to buyback again, at what level?
06:37If we look at it, it's quite interesting.
06:39The buyback is at the level of 6,300 to 6,200.
06:44So maybe you can pay attention to the lowest levels at the level of 6,200.
06:49If there is a rejection or maybe another sign of strength at that level,
06:54maybe you can consider buying on weakness at Bang Mandiri.
06:58For those who are stuck, Mr. Nicholas, when you have a price, maybe at the price of 6,000,
07:05maybe there are also those who already have a position at 7,000,
07:08with a fairly deep pressure in the last few weeks,
07:11at least it does not minimize the risk.
07:14Do you recommend averaging down or just hold?
07:18Yes, of course, for those who have goods, especially at the high price,
07:21we recommend averaging down again,
07:24seeing that the current price is relatively bargain,
07:27the decline is relatively small,
07:29although we see that the rebound is not too massive,
07:32as we said earlier,
07:34relatively, it will be sideways first,
07:36and maybe it can be used as an opportunity to accumulate again
07:40for those who have Bang Mandiri at the high price.
07:43Okay, is the recommendation the same for other big cap banks?
07:47Or maybe there are certain stocks, including big cap banks,
07:52the behavior can be different, Mr. Nicholas?
07:55For the four big cap banks, we see that the outflow is often the same,
08:01we see that the correlation is quite the same for now,
08:04so for now, the strategy is the same,
08:07we buy on weakness at the support level,
08:09which was rebounded yesterday.
08:12Okay, let's go to the other big cap banks,
08:16we want to go to the BBCA,
08:18the pressure today is also quite deep,
08:20number two is the weakest compared to the other big cap banks.
08:24Your analysis for the BBCA,
08:25even though it weakens, today it still holds above Rp10,000, Mr. Nicholas?
08:30Yes, for the BBCA, the strategy is the same,
08:33because it is still mostly retail,
08:36yesterday it was the same as the other four big cap banks,
08:39so it's better to wait again at the support level,
08:41there is a possibility that it will move back to the beginning of Rp110,000,
08:44maybe at the level of Rp9,900 to Rp9,850,
08:49so those two levels can be considered to perform a bionic risk action
08:53if there is a rejection or rebound, like that.
08:56Okay, before we continue, let's go to energy first,
08:59in addition to the financial sector,
09:01energy today is also becoming a burden,
09:03which is quite prominent is Adaro,
09:05today it weakens at 2.65%,
09:08and today it coincides with the interim dividend account, if I'm not mistaken.
09:12And there are already questions coming in, Mr. Nicholas,
09:15I will try to read it from Mr. Bambang Fabria Mitro,
09:19he doesn't mention where the location is,
09:21please ask how much Adaro's share is today,
09:27and then the direction of Adaro in the middle of the weakness that occurred.
09:30Please, for Adaro, sir, just briefly.
09:33Okay, for Adaro, technically speaking,
09:35we see that today's weakness is due to the share,
09:39why?
09:40Because there are many investors who are still confused with this scenario,
09:43because it is the first time in the market,
09:45so for Adaro holders, especially those who have bought from below,
09:49tend to profit-taking and relatively wait-and-see related to this boom date,
09:55because there is indeed a certain scenario for this POPS,
10:00and the market still seems to be in doubt,
10:02so they tend to profit-taking.
10:04From a technical point of view, we expect the same,
10:06because today it rejected and closed at a weak 3,670,
10:10we expect it will still move weakly at the level of 3,600 to 3,590.
10:19The closing of the second session at 3,670 weakened by 2.65%,
10:24and again, the decision to invest is still in the hands of the ITX channel.
10:28Mr. Nicholas, we will pause for a while,
10:30later we will try to see what Samsung plans you recommend,
10:33and don't miss the trading closure update in the second session.
10:38We will be back in a moment.