IHSG -0,23% ke level 7.216,154 sesi I Jumat (24/1). IDX property +1,73% PANI +16,70% CBDK +14,90% berbalik menguat usai ARB di hari sebelumnya. Sementara IDX-Infra -1,12% BREN -4,25%. IDX-Energy -0,73% BRMS -3,21% dan IDX-Techno -0,70% GOTO -1,16%. Saham Big Caps dari perbankan ikut jadi pemberat BBRI-1,40% dan BBCA -1,04%.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:30I'm sorry, Mr. David. I'm fine.
00:32Thank you, Mr. Andri, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:36Mr. Andri, we will just review, we will flashback for the last week.
00:41How do you see the movement position in the Samkabunga family?
00:45Experiencing significant strengthening,
00:47but the trade closure in the end of the week is more tense again.
00:52What is your analysis?
00:54Yes, if you look at it technically and also fundamentally,
00:59actually, three weeks ago, our index suffered a decline,
01:05which is also due to the increase in Wall Street,
01:07because of the anticipation of Donald Trump's election as the 47th president.
01:11So, in America, this situation shows that the market is still worried about the price increase.
01:16So, it pushes the market to do a sell-on-rumor action first.
01:20After the election, the results did not appear.
01:26So, if you look at it, it is in line with the previous market expectations.
01:28The price will increase to Mexico, Panama, and also China.
01:32So, the price to China is also relatively lower than before, only 10%.
01:37So, this also triggers the action of Samsung's purchase in the world,
01:41especially in Wall Street, Europe, and Indonesia.
01:45So, I think this is actually a decline in anticipation.
01:49But the market will also consolidate,
01:51because it will be a long holiday.
01:53Also, in the past two days, the price has been pretty techy,
01:55because I see that the Astro Cycle is not good.
02:00In the last two days, the price has increased quite a bit.
02:03The low price was 6.931 yesterday,
02:06and the high price was 6.321 yesterday.
02:09It reached the highest price in 200 days,
02:12according to the technical average.
02:14So, if you look at it, I think it's normal.
02:16It's normal to say that it's a long holiday.
02:19And next month, there will be an FOMC meeting,
02:21and there will be a decision to cut the price to 6.9.
02:25Okay.
02:26Looking at the trading position next week,
02:29there will only be a few trading days.
02:31Will the trading be relatively quiet, sir?
02:34And the range of movement of Samsung's share price
02:37is also not wide and will not move anywhere?
02:41Yes, if you look at the Astro Cycle itself,
02:45CTA has provided a view,
02:47and it has been broadcasted to various media.
02:50But next week is relatively better.
02:52So, we must be lucky because next week is a bit less good.
02:55But because it's a holiday,
02:57after 9am to 3.30pm, it's neutral.
03:00So, I think there can be no buying pressure.
03:03So, according to the current condition,
03:06so if you look at it, it's actually a 4 correction.
03:08Our index has a 4% counting wave correction.
03:11So, next week there should be a new high again,
03:13above 6.7321 to 7.430 for the index.
03:17So, the decline at the moment is quite normal.
03:20They were only pushed by Samsung's decline
03:22from Agwan to Pani and DK.
03:30Okay, from the stock side,
03:32it looks like Samsung's B-CAP bank
03:34or other Samsung B-CAPs
03:36today are the ones that burden the weakness
03:38of the family of joint stock.
03:40Let's go to the B-CAP bank first.
03:42Sentiment from the release of Kinerja.
03:45BBNI and BBCA have just released,
03:47while BBNI seems to have a delay.
03:50Meanwhile, for BBCA, it's still above 10%
03:53in terms of stock growth.
03:55But the movement pattern is not too significant.
03:58What is the market response like, sir?
04:01When they released Seku Bunga,
04:03was the increase before the release
04:05already higher?
04:07Or was it already priced in first?
04:11Yes, what we can see here is actually
04:13a foreign investor's action.
04:15Foreign investors are selling aggressively
04:17only in the state bonds.
04:19In SBN and also in Zon.
04:21This also gives sentiment to the banking.
04:23Moreover, if you look at it,
04:25BNB still has no Seku Bunga,
04:27but it can be seen,
04:29when I read it yesterday,
04:31from BBCA itself,
04:33it is likely that it will not follow
04:35the footsteps of the BNI's Seku Bunga.
04:37So this means that the condition is fundamentally
04:39and also the economy should not be
04:41affected by the impact
04:43of yesterday's BNC.
04:45This is encouraging foreign investors
04:47to sell their shares.
04:49But we saw yesterday,
04:51a week ago, foreign investors started
04:53to sell their shares in Samberi.
04:55This week, foreign investors returned
04:57to sell their shares in BCA,
04:59because they have already discounted
05:01and also the data that was released
05:03yesterday is actually already
05:05reported in the Full Year 2024.
05:07Maybe now the focus is on the dividend,
05:09not on the dividend.
05:11We will try to review, sir, from the technical side,
05:13we will try to review the BBRI and BBCA.
05:15Coincidentally, these two SAMs are today
05:17the biggest burden for the SAM family.
05:19BBRI correction at 1.63%,
05:214.230%.
05:23Analysis and recommendations, sir,
05:25for the next week or for the short term?
05:27Yes, for the short term,
05:29there should be a rebound first.
05:31The important thing is that we know
05:33where the target is already,
05:353850,
05:373800, and the rebound is now
05:394350-4450.
05:43So it's crucial for the BRI
05:45to change the global trend
05:47to be bullish, it must break above 4650.
05:49So for the short term,
05:51it should still be good, but
05:53in the medium term, it is still BRI.
05:55Because there will be a new low in BRI.
05:57So the condition now we take advantage of
05:59below 4200 we buy,
06:01then below 4600 we sell.
06:03Because, sir, later
06:05for the medium term, when I look at it,
06:07the reward is still not finished.
06:09BRI can still be below 400 more.
06:11From BBRI, we move to BBCA, sir.
06:13Today, it weakened
06:15above 2%, has returned
06:17to level 9300.
06:19The pressure is quite deep
06:21for BBCA this time, sir.
06:23Analysis and recommendations for BBCA.
06:27Yes, BBCA is also seen here,
06:29the pressure from foreign investors is still
06:31quite aggressive.
06:33BBCA is still lagging,
06:35and the lowest level is
06:379525-9600.
06:39Equal by technical and also
06:41the wave should be
06:43below 9250
06:45up to the lowest
06:478750.
06:49I think the next will be
06:51a decrease later in BBCA.
06:53But maybe for BBCA,
06:55we'll see if BBCA can break
06:57below 9525.
06:59Because the resistance is 9750.
07:01So, it's still at 9750.
07:03I think BBCA
07:05is a bit heavy to
07:07be able to afford to go down.
07:09Because if BRI and other
07:11banking sectors are in the middle,
07:13the medium term will still be low
07:15around March-April.
07:17Okay, but the dividend
07:19with their energy
07:21still above 10%, sir.
07:23Does it also
07:25determine to enter or wait
07:27for the dividend to be confirmed first
07:29before the dividend will be returned?
07:31Well, in the short term,
07:33the dividend range is between
07:359500-9750.
07:37But in the medium term,
07:39I think BBCA
07:41can still reach 87-9000.
07:43Because the global
07:45environment for
07:47finance and global stock
07:49is still not good.
07:51Wall Street is also rising
07:53to sell off.
07:55So, we'll see
07:57what the Fed will say
07:59next month.
08:01Because the economy will be good
08:03and it's also good for
08:05BRI's relationship in the future.
08:07Because yesterday, I think
08:09the market didn't anticipate it.
08:11Okay, Mr. Andri.
08:13In the middle of Samsung's
08:15BICAP competition,
08:17a stock from the property sector,
08:19I mean, today,
08:21tried to lead the sectoral boom.
08:23After being the biggest burden yesterday,
08:25CBDK experienced an auto-reject.
08:27Today, the reversal is quite significant.
08:29Mr. Andri, what is the analysis
08:31and recommendation?
08:33Let's go to Pani first, Mr. Andri.
08:35Coincidentally, there is also a question
08:37on our interactive WhatsApp.
08:39I will try to read it.
08:41Coincidentally, there are two questions at once,
08:43Mr. Pani and CBDK.
08:45Where is the direction after
08:47today's reversal?
08:49The question comes from Mr. Bismarck
08:51PSY Hottang.
08:53Let's go to Pani first.
08:55Mr. Andri, this reversal is
08:57quite significant,
08:5914%.
09:01Yes, technically speaking,
09:03this is not over yet.
09:05This is just a technical rebound.
09:07If you look at the tech-planting wave,
09:09this is only the 4th wave.
09:11So, the chain is not over yet.
09:13As you can see, Pani is still below.
09:15The resistance is below
09:1914,575.
09:21As far as I know, this is still a long-term trend.
09:23So, the trend is still 14,575
09:25up to
09:2716,300.
09:29So, if I look at it,
09:31this is still a distribution.
09:33So, be careful to keep it in the middle.
09:35If it's short, it's still volatile.
09:37Because of the trend, the support is also broken.
09:39So, for the long-term,
09:41we can still see it as long as it is still above 8,000
09:43for the weekly.
09:45Because 60 days, the WMA is only at 8,000.
09:47If it's below 6,000,
09:49it can go up to 14,000
09:51to 18,000 again.
09:53But if the closing fails below 8,000,
09:55today it's 7,325.
09:57So, if it breaks through,
09:59the target may go below 5,000 again.
10:01So, be careful because
10:03this pattern is the same as the August 2022 pattern.
10:05Pani, this is you, right?
10:07Yes, Pani.
10:09Okay, 12,725
10:11today's closing. Before the break,
10:13for CBDK, just briefly,
10:15since the question just came in.
10:17For CBDK, it's the same.
10:19As long as it's below 10,050
10:21up to 10,100, the resistance
10:23I think it can still go up.
10:25Because of the technical, the intranet is also broken.
10:27Because yesterday it was
10:29above 7,000.
10:31So, I think it's reasonable to operate.
10:33But if it's below,
10:35I don't think so.
10:37Because we can see that Pani and CBDK
10:39are one of the big caps now.
10:41If it's RIB again,
10:43our index can fluctuate again.
10:45So, I think the fund fund manager
10:47will provide support to beat
10:49the demand is quite high
10:51if there is a decrease in Pani and CBDK.
10:53Okay.
10:55Sam Sam's recommendation and analysis
10:57has been a burden and has been a supporter
10:59of the Asamkabungan region throughout the recent days.
11:01And hopefully it can be a reference
11:03for you and the decision to invest
11:05is still in the hands of the Idea Channel viewers.
11:07Mr. Andri, we will get more data later.
11:09We will see what Sam Sam has chosen
11:11that you have recommended.
11:13Thank you very much.
11:15Goodbye.