Terseret Depresiasi Rupiah, Laju IHSG Tertahan di 7.500-an
IHSG -0,53% ke level 7.523,109 di sesi I Kamis (3/10). IDX-Techno -1,07% GOTO -1,64%, IDX-Health -0,82% HEAL -2,66%, dan IDX-Finance -0,51% BBCA -0,71%. Sektor property +0,24% ASRI 2,91%. Dari sisi saham, BREN jadi penekan terbesar IHSG 7,5 indeks poin. Sementara rupiah juga melemah ke atas 15.400/USD.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us, and in this segment, we will review how the business has been going today, Mr. Mirza.
00:06And we remind you again, you can still participate on WhatsApp Interactive at 0812 8788 3723, as shown on the television screen later.
00:17And now we are connected via Zoom with Mr. James Evan Tumbuhan, Head Investment Specialist in Securities.
00:24We will go straight to Mr. James, good afternoon, how are you, sir?
00:28Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you? Welcome to IDX Channel.
00:32Thank you, Mr. James, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:35Today, the Samkabungan stock market is back on the rise, Mr. James.
00:39Earlier, it almost broke through its support level at the 7,500 level.
00:44Today's lowest level is at 7,504.407.
00:49What is your analysis of the reverse of what happened in the first session this morning, when it gave hope and was close to the 7,600 level?
00:59Yes, if we look at the index of the Samkabungan stock market, in the last few days, it has been corrected after the high level at the 7,900 level.
01:08And indeed, we can see that after the Fed cut trade, the market has also priced in.
01:13Finally, some of the stocks have also been corrected, such as BigBank, which has been corrected because the rise in the price of BigBank has been strong since the beginning of last year.
01:25At the moment, I see that the index of the Samkabungan stock market is testing the support level at the 7,449 level for support areas.
01:34While the closest resistance we can see is the resistance at the level of 7,700 for several indexes of the Samkabungan stock market.
01:42Indeed, we can see that in addition to BigBank, Brand has also become one of the drivers of the index of the Samkabungan stock market in the last few days.
01:52Okay, for trading tomorrow, just in the short term, Mr. James, after the weekend vacation, where is the trend of the index of the Samkabungan stock market?
02:00Is the pressure still continuing? Will the 7,400 level still be tested again in the short term?
02:10Okay, for tomorrow, maybe the movement of the index of the Samkabungan stock market is still in the sideways area.
02:15That is, the movement of the level for tomorrow 7,500 to the level of 7,550 will be a level that is protected in the days to come.
02:25And indeed, tomorrow we are waiting for one of the US data, which is non-fund payroll data.
02:31Which is also a key data so that after this non-fund payroll data, we can see how the prospects are.
02:38Will the interest rate be lowered again next month or maybe at the end of the year?
02:44So maybe the market will wait for the non-fund payroll data tomorrow.
02:50Okay, in addition to the index of the Samkabungan stock market, Mr. James, the exchange rate for the US dollar today also continued a fairly deep correction.
02:59Even this afternoon, it reached more than 1% and the exchange rate position has returned to 15,400.
03:07Is this also a result of the development of the global economic situation so far?
03:12Conflict, then also the strengthening of the dollar index.
03:14And what is the actual impact on the Samkabungan stock market, Mr. James?
03:19Yes, if we look at the movement of the dollar, not only for the US dollar, but also for the major currency.
03:25For almost the last three months, since July, the dollar index has dropped by almost 4.5%.
03:32So it's normal at the current levels, there is a reverse or rebound of the movement of the dollar index.
03:40That also happens in the Rupiah dollar.
03:43Indeed, the bottom area is at the level of 15,000 Rupiah.
03:47So far, there is indeed a rebound for the movement of the Rupiah US dollar.
03:51And indeed, at the moment, if we look at it, the market has already priced in.
03:54So there is a recovery for the US dollar against the Rupiah.
03:59So, for now, it's like that.
04:02Okay, from the side of the stock market, it tends to move mixed, even though it is also in one sector, Mr. James.
04:10Again, we go back to the Big Cap Banking.
04:12Today, the BBRI seems to be the biggest burden among several Big Cap Banking.
04:19And today it moves back to the level of 4,000 Rupiah.
04:22When it was held the day before, it became a support for the Sam Kapungan family.
04:26How do you see the position of investors or the view of investors to Sam Sam Banking, especially for the BBRI?
04:34Okay, if we look at the BRI from July, actually from June 20 to the highest in September,
04:46the BRI has increased by 36%.
04:48So it's normal for the BRI to be corrected in the last few days.
04:53And indeed, technically, there is a gap of 4,950 Rupiah, which was just closed in the last few days.
04:59And we see that it is the cause of the correction of the BRI.
05:05And indeed, this profit action is from the stock market.
05:09But in the long run, we see that the income of the BRI compared to some other banks is still quite solid.
05:20So maybe for now, for long-term investors, they can do buy on weakness at the current level.
05:27For the end of the year, because we see the BRI movement at the beginning of the year was around 6,400 Rupiah.
05:36Okay, is there any other potential there, Mr. James?
05:39Yes, at least it has to close the gap again above 5,525 Rupiah.
05:44Because when there was a correction on September 24, there was a gap down.
05:48And that's what should be closed for the BRI movement.
05:51At least at 5,500 Rupiah, it was closed until the end of the year.
05:55We check, hopefully we can get it again.
05:57Okay, with the current position of 4,900 Rupiah, with the target of 5,500 Rupiah,
06:02it is still recommended to buy on weakness for the BRI, but more towards the short-term and long-term.
06:08Let's move on to the next bank.
06:10For BMRI, the technical is a bit different.
06:14Significant strengthening occurs when it experiences a significant weakness.
06:18Are investors still optimistic for BMRI when the price is below 7,000 Rupiah?
06:24Investors will return to this market.
06:27At the moment, if we look at BMRI, the support area is at the closest level at 6,875 Rupiah.
06:32That's what was maintained in the last few days.
06:35And if we look at today, there is 1% strengthening in BMRI.
06:39I feel that for the next few days, there is still potential for rebounds.
06:45But the rebounds are limited.
06:47The resistance is 7,225 Rupiah.
06:50So, in the short term, the movement is around 6,900 to 7,200 Rupiah.
06:58So, it's better to support the resistance.
07:01Is the recommendation still buy on weakness for BMRI and the target until the end of the year?
07:06It's still the same.
07:07It's still the same for buy on weakness.
07:09Again, Big Banks is one of them.
07:12Big Banks is still solid.
07:13The movement from some of its partners is still solid for financial reports.
07:19So, if BBRI reaches 5,500 Rupiah, where will BMRI go?
07:24What will be the target price?
07:26Okay, for the next 1-2 weeks, if it succeeds to get out of 7,100 Rupiah,
07:30it will test the level of closing the gap at 7,425 Rupiah.
07:35There is also a small gapdown on September 25th.
07:39On September 25th, all Big Banks will make a correction.
07:42So, there are some gapdowns.
07:44So, at least in the short term, Big Banks will close the gap at 7,425 Rupiah.
07:50Okay, the analysis for BMRI today is back to 1.08% and closed at level 7,050.
07:56Earlier, the intraday was up to 7,075.
08:00There is a potential to 7,400 for BMRI.
08:03Okay, from Big Banks, we move to other heavyweight stocks for today.
08:08There is this brand, Mr. James.
08:11Today, it is back to the biggest laggard for the Samkabungan family.
08:15What will be the direction in the short and medium term for this brand?
08:20Actually, the brand is quite tricky.
08:23If we look at it, there are two gapdowns that are very big after level 12,000.
08:29That's when the food scene is seen from the next brand.
08:36But right now, in the last few days, there is still a sideways area.
08:41As long as it doesn't correct below 6,350, the movement will tend to be more sideways.
08:49The movement range is 6,500 to at least 7,100.
08:54But if the movement of the brand in the next few days can break out the 7,800 area,
09:00it's not impossible to close the gap at 8,800.
09:04So, the area that needs to be found is the moving average area of 200,
09:09from level 78 to level 7,900 to break out the brand.
09:16Okay, outside of the brand, raw oil stocks are also increasing significantly.
09:24Profit-taking, Mr. James, is this just a temporary weakness?
09:30And considering the high oil prices are still quite wide,
09:35considering the conflict in the Middle East,
09:37the tension still hasn't subsided.
09:40But it keeps getting hotter after Iraq rained on Israel.
09:47Yes, we know that Iran is one of the top five oil producers in the world.
09:52With the Israel war, it is one of the drivers of commodity prices for the WTI crude oil index,
10:01which is currently being corrected,
10:03because from Medco, Elsa, and several other oil companies, the price has increased significantly.
10:09So, it's normal for profit-taking to happen.
10:11But in the future, as long as the price of oil can go from 74 to 75 dollars per barrel,
10:19this will be a positive sign for the movement of oil.
10:26Okay, we will try to review Medco.
10:28Just briefly, Mr. James.
10:30Okay, Medco is currently at 14.50.
10:36So, 14.50 is the resistance level that was touched today.
10:42For now, for Medco, maybe in the next few days, there will be a slight correction,
10:48at least up to 13.35.
10:50Then, if the price is still above 1,300, there is a potential reversal,
10:55at least up to 14.55.
10:57Then, for the Middle East, up to 1,500.
11:00Okay, back to 13.35, right?
11:03Yes, back to 13.35.
11:06Okay, analysis for Medco, which today the correction is quite deep.
11:09Profit-taking has experienced a significant increase in the Middle East conflict.