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00:00It is ten days since the surprise lightning advance of rebel forces in Syria began.
00:15From the north-west pocket of the country which the regime of President Assad thought
00:19had been contained.
00:21Four years where the civil war had been said to have been frozen.
00:23Not peace, but no real outbreaks.
00:26In ten days, three cities taken.
00:29First Aleppo was held by rebel forces, it has essentially been retaken, it was taken
00:35back a few years ago by the government with the help of Russia and Iran.
00:39Now the opposition continue, going 70km or so south, taking the city of Hama in the centre.
00:47The group of Islamist fighters leading it is called HTS or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
00:52Syrian forces say they withdrew to avoid fighting in the city, spare the lives of civilians.
00:58Now we're seeing reports of residents today evacuating the third largest city, Homs, in
01:03the west.
01:04These are pictures we're getting as well from two towns near to the city with Islamist
01:09fighters there.
01:10Meanwhile, separately in the east of the country, Kurdish forces have taken significant eastern
01:16cities.
01:17This is the FDF, the Syrian Democratic Forces, taking full control, they say, of Deir el-Zour.
01:22We're going to talk to Rob Parsons, our international affairs editor, in a moment.
01:27I also want to speak first to Robert Ford in Maine, in the US, because Robert Ford,
01:33former US ambassador to Syria from 2011 to 2014, as well as US ambassador to Iraq as
01:39well, 2008 to 2010, and former ambassador to Algeria, currently a fellow at the Middle
01:45East Institute.
01:46Great to have you on the programme.
01:47Both Roberts will start with you, Robert Ford, this evening.
01:50Just talk us through your understanding and your reflections on what's going on right
01:55now.
01:56Well, good evening and thank you for the invitation.
02:00I think we are seeing the most serious challenge to the Assad government and the survival of
02:07the Assad government since the Syrian civil war started at the end of 2011 and the beginning
02:14of 2012.
02:15What we see now is unprecedented.
02:20Tell us about that.
02:21We've listened to a number of analysts today talking about there being this kind of pause
02:25period at the start of the week after we saw Aleppo fall.
02:28We saw Syrian Russian aircraft going in.
02:31There seemed to be some, a breather, if that's the right word, for President Assad.
02:35But now, as you point out, you think this is real jeopardy time for him.
02:41Never before has the Syrian armed opposition controlled in its entirety the country's second
02:48largest city, Aleppo, along with the country's fourth largest city, Hama.
02:55Southern Syria, just an hour south of Damascus, according to reports we're seeing, has also
03:02now risen up against the Assad government.
03:05The border crossing with Jordan has fallen again into the hands of armed opposition elements.
03:12And it remains to be seen if the government is able to put up any kind of effective fight
03:18at the third largest city, the one you mentioned, Homs.
03:21If Homs falls quickly, we will see armed opposition elements reaching the outskirts of Damascus
03:28within days.
03:30Because this is the western city, very close to the coast.
03:34It's a kind of different demographic as well, isn't it, Robert?
03:37This is a large Alawite population there, and it's literally on the road to Damascus.
03:43It is literally on the road to Damascus.
03:45And the Syrian armed opposition did control a substantial part of Homs early in the civil
03:51war.
03:53The control of Homs was so vital to the survival of the Assad government back in 2012 and 2013
04:02that Iran sent Lebanese Hezbollah for the first time in 2013 to fight for the control
04:10of the area around Homs.
04:12That victory by Lebanese Hezbollah and the Syrian army turned the initial tide of the
04:18civil war and stopped the opposition's great momentum back in 2013.
04:24Now we see again Homs under threat.
04:30Taking Homs would enable the opposition to cut land routes between the capital Damascus
04:37and port cities and communities up along the Mediterranean coast that are vital to
04:43the Assad government's survival.
04:46But unlike 2013, it seems that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot intervene, is not in a position to
04:52do so, two weeks after fighting the Israelis in Lebanon.
04:57And the Iranians no longer have an easy capacity to send in other troops to help Assad.
05:04So President Assad, somebody you've dealt with as your time as ambassador, this is a
05:09man who's dealt with and cracked down brutally over the years during the civil war, hundreds
05:13of thousands of people killed, many imprisoned.
05:18But it's a context, we're not dealing with a rebel that was ten years ago, this free
05:24Syrian army that was funded by the UK, the US, the EU, this is a very different faction
05:29we're dealing with.
05:30Tell us about your understanding of HTS, the implications of its taking over, this
05:36Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jalani, who was part
05:42of the Nusra Front, wasn't he, who's still got a $10 million bounty on his head?
05:48Yes, he does have a $10 million bounty on his head from American authorities.
05:54We placed him on the American terrorism list back in December of 2012 for the first time
06:01because of the organic links between HTS's mother organization and al-Qaeda in Iraq.
06:11But I have to say, since 2012, this organization, this HTS, cut its links with al-Qaeda and
06:21actually fought and killed al-Qaeda loyalists in northwest Syria.
06:26It fought hard, sharp battles with the Islamic State, lost a lot of fighters, but eventually
06:34expelled the Islamic State from northwest Syria and the Aleppo area, and has since,
06:41over the last couple of years, has reached out to the Christian community, the remaining
06:45small Christian community in Idlib, enabled them to restore churches and resume church services.
06:53I'm not saying equality between Christians and Muslims, far from it, but not at all the
06:58way al-Qaeda or the Islamic State would treat Christians.
07:02And we see in Aleppo that so far, both the Kurdish and the Christian minority districts
07:10have been safe and secure.
07:13Remains to be seen if HTS continues to operate in such a fashion.
07:19Let me bring in Robert Ford, our international affairs editor as well, Rob Parsons, to the
07:26conversation.
07:27Very interesting what Robert Ford's just saying there because he's talking about Abu Muhammad
07:30al-Jilani and talking about this group kind of appearing to change the way it's dealing
07:35optics.
07:36Anyway, it has a very slick media operation.
07:38I think he was filmed at one point this week being seen to be on the phone to fighters
07:42on the front lines saying, do not harm civilians.
07:45So he's aware of the optics around him right now.
07:47And I guess the other point here is his relations could become quite important with the leader
07:53in Turkey, President Erdogan, who has said this tonight, quote, our wish is that this
07:57advance in Syria continues without incidents.
08:00Yeah, I mean, we haven't been looking too closely what Turkey's role in all this has
08:04been over the last few days, but there's no doubt that Turkey is supporting the advance
08:08of the rebel forces.
08:11The group that Turkey is supporting were instrumental in the seizure, capture of Aleppo.
08:17But you're right, it's interesting listening to Robert, folks that are talking about, Robert
08:21Ford talking about al-Jilani and the direction he might move in and the role he's played
08:28in Idlib over the last few years, particularly towards ethnic and religious minorities.
08:34It's interesting that he's done a couple of major things, I think, with HTS over the last
08:39few years.
08:40First of all, on the military side, reorganized the HTS, made it a much more professional
08:47body of men, has trained special forces, has set up a drone operation, has got a night
08:55force operating, has got a chain of command, professional officers.
09:00None, excuse me, none of that existed before, you know, when the Syrian army was fighting
09:08against the rebels before, they didn't, excuse me, they weren't fighting such professional
09:14outfit.
09:16That is critical now, I think, given to that the Syrian army is so much weakened now by
09:23the absence of Hezbollah and by the relative lack of support of the Russian air force and
09:29the relative lack of support coming from Iran.
09:31You have two very important things happening at the same time, a weakening of the Syrian
09:36side and a strengthening on the rebel side, a professionalization of the force.
09:42Plus the thing that we were just talking about just now, you know, the political role that
09:49HTS has been playing over the last few years as well.
09:53The reach out to minorities, the Christians in Idlib that we just heard about.
09:58But in addition to that, reaching out to ethnic groups as well, through the setting up what's
10:05been called the Syrians Salvation Government in Idlib, almost as a preparation for taking
10:12power in Syria at some point down the line.
10:16And what we're seeing, excuse me for my voice, what we're seeing in Aleppo already is a devolution
10:22of power to groups that already exist in Aleppo, which seems to suggest a continuation, perhaps
10:28even a growth of the policies that we're seeing towards minorities in Idlib, rather than a
10:35weakening of it.
10:36Robert Fortwood, it's interesting when we look at HTS and it said it isn't a jihadist
10:43organization, and yet it still talks of, if it was to take over these cities permanently,
10:48that ultimately underpinning society would be Sharia law.
10:51Do you regard it as a jihadist group?
10:56I don't and I'll tell you why.
10:58First, long ago, the leader Jolani formally renounced any intention of conducting terror
11:07attacks outside of Syria.
11:11And he specifically said they would not attack any targets in the West.
11:15So that already separates them in a very big way from Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
11:21And I'm not aware of any intelligence that suggests that Jolani and his organization,
11:28HTS, have conducted terror attacks outside of Syria.
11:33Second, the fact that they are reaching out to other communities, enabling them even to
11:42say rebuild churches, which has happened in Idlib, that again separates them in my mind
11:49from much harder line jihadi organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
11:56I do not mean to suggest for a moment that Jolani and the HTS in some way endorse democracy.
12:05They absolutely do not.
12:08And there is not equality, as I said, between Muslims and Christians, for example, in Idlib.
12:14But I would not go so far as to call them jihadis.
12:18I would simply now call them conservative political and armed Islamists.
12:24Will they represent a threat to the West?
12:27Just as I think they did 12 years ago, they might again one day in the future.
12:32But then again, they might focus on domestic issues.
12:35And I think it's important to note here that while Jolani is getting all of the media attention,
12:41he only commands, in fact, a part of the armed opposition.
12:46For example, in southern Syria, south of Damascus, those elements of what was once the Free Syrian
12:52Army are not loyal and taking orders from HTS and Jolani.
12:57The Syrian National Army, which is composed of different factions strongly backed by Turkey,
13:03also are not loyal to Jolani and they don't always take orders from him.
13:08In fact, they have clashed with Jolani even in the last year and two.
13:13And there is a Syrian Kurdish faction, which also has an important militia.
13:18And so Jolani is interesting, but in fact, the situation is far more complicated than
13:24merely Jolani and HTS.
13:27So what you're saying is we could be seeing, given that the multitude of opposition groups
13:31and rebel forces essentially are recarving very quickly of the map of Syria, we're talking
13:36about another significant eastern town going to the Kurdish groups.
13:41How do you think Washington is analysing this right now, Robert, when it's looking at the
13:45situation, working out just how the cards are falling?
13:50I think Washington is in very close contact with Syrian democratic forces in eastern and
13:55northeastern Syria, but I'm not so sure that they have any influence with the factions
14:02that are driving south towards Damascus.
14:05That's a different question.
14:07And in fact, earlier this week, the United States spokespeople said that the United States
14:12was not involved in any way with the armed factions driving down past Aleppo and homes
14:18towards Damascus.
14:20So I think Washington is looking at it from an angle of what does this mean for the security
14:26of the roughly 900 American soldiers present in eastern Syria, along with American citizen
14:32contractors in eastern Syria?
14:35What does it mean for their primarily Syrian Kurdish militia allies, that one faction of
14:42Syrian Kurds, and understanding that they are not in a position to decisively shape
14:50what is happening around Damascus?
14:53That really is Turkey, Russia and Iran.
14:57Who doesn't Washington need to speak to now when it comes to the rebel groups?
15:00You talk about several different ones, too.
15:02It's got links with the Kurdish groups, but who is the powerful figure, Robert?
15:07Do they need to talk to Jelani?
15:09Or actually, is Jelani subservient to President Erdogan in Turkey?
15:14And that's a very interesting and complicated relationship, surely, now.
15:18It certainly is.
15:20In a sense, all of the trade between Idlib and Turkey is vital to the economic survival
15:29of the Idlib province and Idlib city.
15:31And frankly, now also, it will be with Turkey and Aleppo.
15:37I'm a retired career diplomat, and I believe that it's important, especially in conflicts
15:43like this, for governments to have contacts with all sides.
15:48But because HTS is a designated foreign terrorist organization in American law, and also, I
15:56have to add, the United Nations Security Council designated in a resolution designated HTS
16:04as a terrorist organization as well.
16:06It complicates direct contacts, but there are always ways to develop channels and at
16:11least have contacts and to sort of understand each other's interests and how, if possible,
16:20to avoid conflict.
16:22Robert Ford, great to speak to you this evening, former U.S. ambassador to Syria.
16:28Thank you so much for your time.
16:30And staying with us...
16:31My pleasure.
16:32Thank you, Robert.
16:33Rob Parsons, just a quick word from you, just very interested in listening to the dynamics
16:36from the former ambassador.
16:37Fascinating, yeah.
16:38It's very hard to predict this, so I'm not going to ask you where it's going, but just
16:42tell me your thoughts on the fact that they are literally on the road to Damascus and
16:46your sense of the threat to the Assad regime.
16:48Well, I would agree completely with what Robert Ford said at the start of his analysis of
16:54what's happening at the moment, that this is an unprecedented threat to the Assad regime.
17:00If you remember a few years ago, you know, in the initial years of the civil war, the
17:05Syrian army was crumbling and the expectation was that Assad was about to fall.
17:13If it hadn't been for the Russians and their heavy use of air power, the Iranians and Hezbollah,
17:20it's almost certain that the Assad regime would have fallen.
17:24Now they're to a degree out of the way.
17:28They can't help in the way that they did before.
17:31And in the meantime, it doesn't appear as if the Syrian armed forces have grown any
17:37stronger.
17:38On the contrary, it would appear that they are weaker of anything.
17:42I think the judgment you have to come to after the fall of Aleppo and after the fall of Hama
17:47is that morale is not good at all in the Syrian armed forces.
17:53So it would appear in a way that we're reverting to the way things were, you know, eight, nine
17:58years ago.
18:00But a situation which is, in fact, even worse for the reasons I've just outlined, plus the
18:06fact that the opposition, the rebel forces themselves seem to be much more professional
18:12than they were back in those days, much more organised, better equipped and more together
18:19than they were in those days.
18:20I mean, it could all fall apart.
18:22The fissures are potentially still there.
18:24We know that the interests of the Kurds and the interests of the SNA are completely different,
18:31as are those of HDS as well.
18:34But at the moment, the outlook is not looking good at all for Assad's regime.
18:39Rob, thank you so much.
18:41Rob Parsons, our international affairs editor.