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00:00Joining me now from Brussels is Kawar Hassan, a Middle East specialist from the Stimson Centre,
00:04and also our international affairs commentator Douglas Herbert is here with me in the studio.
00:10First of all, Kawar, the reporter James Andre, they're talking about joyous scenes in Syria,
00:17but how long can this joy actually last? I mean, surely the big question here is whether al-Jilani
00:22will be able to unify all these various rebel forces and leave the country until possible
00:29elections, especially since there have been protests in the Idlib province,
00:32which was under his rule for a number of years, over his crackdown on dissent.
00:38You're right. This is not the one million, but one billion dollar question.
00:43It's on everyone's mind and lips, I guess, in Syria and outside Syria.
00:48How will Ahmad Sharif al-Jilani and his fighters and other groups turn this strategic
01:01victory into something sustainable and create a new Syrian state, which is a city for all?
01:07That is the biggest question, of course, but I think it's fair to say that the Syrians deserve
01:12time to celebrate, to mourn and celebrate again. Yesterday was a day of celebration,
01:19today as well, but also a day of mourning and sorrow because of the horrible images we have seen
01:27over the past two days. I think this is not the end of it. Those images will haunt Syrians and
01:34human rights activists and international players who would want to help Syria coming out of the
01:42ashes of the civil war and the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad and his father, Hafez al-Assad.
01:48Now, going back to your question, the challenges ahead are, I think, enormous. This is daunting,
01:55a tall order for all Syrian groups and, first and foremost, Hayyat al-Tahrir al-Sham, the SGS,
02:04as to how they will deal with this big gain. I think the jury is out.
02:14They have been, you know, Abu Mohammed al-Jilani himself, that he has been talking about,
02:18that they have changed, they have transformed, they want to build a Syria for all Syrians.
02:25These are all nice words, but, again, we have to wait and see to what extent he and others will
02:31translate these promises, these pledges, into actions, into a new legitimacy, into a tolerant,
02:41accountable governance system, and not a 100 percent democratic system, but at least a system
02:48that has legitimacy of the Syrians and that they will see that there is indeed a transformation
02:59in the political system. Kawa, do stay with us. Doug, I want to bring you in at this point.
03:04If there is any so-called big winner in all of this, it certainly must be Turkey, who's,
03:10of course, said to have very close ties with HTS. Yeah, look, Turkey is right now in this new sort
03:16of uncertain era that we're talking about. It seems to be the dominant power, far more so than
03:21the rebel group that spearheaded this onslaught into Damascus and toppled Assad. Why? First of
03:26all, Turkey shares a geographical border with Syria. Turkey was also the country into which
03:30some three and a half million, at least, refugees flowed during, over the past, you know, 13 years
03:36of this civil war. Turkey is literally front and center in this conflict and has a lot of interest
03:42at stake. The reason I say that Turkey is now the dominant power and perhaps the dominant power
03:46broker is it's been a prominent ally of this HTS group, even as it was often wary of its past
03:56extremist ties, its ties, its said ties to the Islamic State group several years back. But it
04:02tried to leverage its influence in a way to sort of moderate the HTS. But its main primary concern,
04:09if you're making a ranking list of the top five things that Turkey is looking at right now
04:13in this new vacuum, this uncertain era, it is and it's always been the eradication of the Syrian
04:17Kurdish group, the SDF. SDF, as we know, has been a key U.S. ally. It was a key partner of the United
04:24States throughout the civil war. It established sort of a turf, a little patch, a sliver of
04:29territory in northeastern Syria. What is Turkey's biggest fear now in this new era? The biggest fear
04:34is that how somehow the Syrian Kurds, this group, the SDF and other Kurdish groups, are going to
04:40now somehow cut a deal with the new government in Damascus, cut a deal that would somehow give it,
04:45give the Kurds autonomy in this northern area of Syria, right on the border of Turkey.
04:51Kawa, I want to talk to you also about this question of the Syrian Kurds, HTS reportedly
04:56developing very good ties with the YPG, which as we just explained there has the Syrian Democratic
05:01Forces, yet Turkey views the YPG as a terrorist organisation. So could this alliance between
05:08HTS and the YPG become strained over the weeks ahead? I'm not sure we can call it an alliance.
05:16I think there are good understanding between SDF and HTS and they have had contacts obviously over
05:24the past weeks, but also, you know, for the past years. So I wouldn't call it an alliance,
05:31but I think if HTS and other groups, they want to build a Syria for all Syrians,
05:41including the Kurds, I think it's crucial that there, you know, there will be serious negotiations
05:52about the future of the Kurds in the new Syria and that the Kurds also will feel that,
06:00you know, they are part of the new Syria, which is for all, which is democratic. And that is
06:05obviously, you know, it will be a tough, tough task, given indeed, you know, the concerns of
06:14Turkey. But I think we are seeing, you know, over the past, we have seen over the past weeks,
06:22some encouraging, I would say, some cautiously encouraging developments. The fact that
06:31in Aleppo, there was a good understanding with HTS and there were no retaliation from HTS against
06:37Kurds in Aleppo. And also SDF has, leadership has expressed its willingness to engage with HTS.
06:47These are all, you know, positive signs. And I think also the role of US will be crucial
06:53as the key backer of SDF to make sure that, you know, the levers they have to use it in a way
07:02that is in the interest of the new Syria that is democratic, tolerant, where the rights of
07:08Kurds are protected, but also not only the Kurds, but also, you know, other groups, you know,
07:13Druze, Alawites and Christian and others. So we'll see definitely, there will be very tough
07:22negotiations in the coming weeks, months and years about the contours of the new Syrian state
07:29and the position of the Kurds in that new Syrian state.
07:33Again, I'm going to ask Kawa and Doug Herbert to stay with us as obviously I've got further
07:39questions to ask, but moving on, prisoners released from Syrian jails have had emotional
07:44reunions with both family and friends, while rescuers are continuing to search the Sendai
07:50prison for hidden underground cells, holding detainees in secret. Eliza Herbis has more.
08:01Dozens of men flee on foot, confused but spirited. They have just been released
08:08from Sednaya prison on the outskirts of Damascus, marking a pivotal moment in the
08:13end of Bashar al-Assad's regime. Footage circulating widely on social media purported
08:19to show rebel groups breaking into the complex on Sunday. Here, we track men moving through
08:29corridors as they try to bust open door after door. Each cell is crowded with multiple women,
08:36some children, and here, what looks like clothing strewn on the floor in lieu of beds.
08:43It is a complex undertaking. The White Helmets, a civil defence group in Syria,
08:48said they had deployed specialised emergency teams to investigate hidden underground cells
08:54and that their crew consists of trained dog units and medical responders.
08:58Outside, families of detainees flocked in hope of finding their loved ones.
09:03The number of prisoners is vast and many of their fates are unknown.
09:08Some of them were imprisoned for decades. For them personally, that is, I think it's
09:17something they cannot even describe with words. For their families who
09:22have some of the people that were released, they were reported to be dead.
09:28Sydneya is Syria's most notorious prison, known as the site of alleged tortures,
09:33beatings and hangings. Human rights groups estimate that more than 30,000 detainees
09:38have been killed in the prison since 2011.
09:43Now with me are Kawa Hassan, a Middle East specialist from the Stinson Centre in Brussels,
09:50and our very own international affairs commentator, Douglas Herbert. Kawa, we're
09:54starting to get a sense of the extent of human rights violations carried out by the Assad regime
10:00now that he's fled to Russia. Is he likely to ever go before the International Criminal Court?
10:08Well, it's difficult to predict right now, but I think there will be international
10:17and Syrian pressure on Russia at some point definitely to hand over Assad to face justice,
10:30be it in Syria or in an international court. So I think here Putin most probably will use
10:41Assad, his former ally, as a leverage to also again to make sure to minimise the damage that
10:51has been done to the strategic influence of Russia in Syria and the Middle East.
10:58But I think for now it's difficult to predict, but I think it's not impossible. And if that
11:04happens that will be a great day for justice and accountability, not only for Syrians,
11:11but for the entire Middle East.
11:13Douglas, as you and I know, Syria is at the crossroads of the Middle East and what happens
11:19in Syria doesn't in fact just impact the region, but right across the world. So let's start firstly
11:24with Russia. This Syrian uprising has significantly weakened Moscow's power base in that part of the
11:31world, with Putin's attention obviously being very much focused on Ukraine. So what does this mean
11:37for Russia's position in general on the world stage?
11:41First of all, you're absolutely right that Syria was Russia's conduit for having a footprint
11:46in the Middle East region. Being there gave it some sort of regional, if not dominance,
11:52at least leverage and significant leverage in the region because it's thanks to Russia
11:56that Bashar Assad's regime was essentially propped up. Russia ran and has blood, as we know.
12:01So Bashar Assad would have fallen perhaps back in 2015. People were saying back then,
12:06maybe his days are numbered. There had been a rebel offensive back then. We're going back
12:09nine years. Didn't happen, so it's happening nine years later. Look, the Kremlin isn't saying it.
12:14Russian state media today isn't saying it explicitly. Putin and the Kremlin's foreign
12:20policy has egg on their face. It's as simple as that because they did put their chips with
12:25Bashar Assad. The Kremlin has, whether they acknowledge it or not, has been taken as much
12:29off guard by the rapidity of this rebel toppling of Assad. Their advance, their sweeping advance
12:35down that strategic M5 highway in Syria right towards Damascus in a matter of just 10 days.
12:42And this really upends a lot of those political calculations. Remember, the rebels, even in the
12:47early days of this recent, of this latest rebel advance, the successful one, Russia was still,
12:53its airstrikes were still trying to thwart, to slow down the rebel advance. It shows that Russia
12:58at least had still a little bit of skin in the game, trying perhaps to lend a little bit of
13:03support to Assad. But as you, as you suggested, it really wasn't in the fight anymore. It is
13:08distracted in Ukraine and then some, that's putting it mildly. It probably doesn't think
13:14Assad at this point is really worth it as an ally. I think a lot of his allies from Russia to Iran,
13:20even Hezbollah thought that his own army was so weakened, he had done such a poor job at making
13:25it an effective fighting force that they relied so much on Russia and Iran that he became more of a
13:30liability than an asset, even for all that regional influence. Russia is left right now
13:35having to pick up the pieces, not in its own state propaganda, but at least in the way it deals with
13:40the situation and its dealings with the outside world. And it is a setback for Russia at a time
13:44right now where it's under also a lot of pressure on the Ukrainian front. Now, thousands of displaced
13:49Syrian refugees in Lebanon have begun their journey home. Displaced Syrians dragging their
13:54luggage and carrying bags crowded the Masna crossing with Syria, trying to cross the border
14:00on foot. Lebanon saying that it was closing all land border crossings with Syria, except for the
14:05Masna crossing, which links Beirut directly with Damascus. Now, this happens as Turkey's top
14:12diplomat has called for an inclusive new government in Syria. The foreign minister, Hakan Fidan,
14:19Ankara expects international actors, especially the United Nations, to support the establishment
14:25of an inclusive administration. And the same situation in Syria representing an opportunity
14:31for regional influence for Turkey. And it certainly has skin in the game housing more than
14:36three million Syrian refugees who fled the civil war, some of whom have already started to return.
14:42Coming back to you, Kawa Hassan, obviously, the big question is millions of Syrians
14:48dispersed across the Middle East and Europe. Will the country be able to absorb them at a
14:54time when its political future is so obviously still uncertain?
14:59A big challenge for the next government. Obviously, you know, most Syrians want to
15:08go back home at least, you know, to see the big change for themselves and also to see their loved
15:14ones. Some of these refugees, they have been, you know, they fled Syria not only, you know,
15:22from 2011 onwards, but even before that. I know people who had to flee Syria in the late 90s.
15:29So they, you know, they were never able to go back home and see their loved ones. So I think
15:34all of them would love at least to go back and see their loved ones and see the change
15:39for themselves. Now, in terms of sustainable return and, you know, rebuilding the country,
15:47I think that's a big challenge. I think that depends first and foremost on how accountable,
15:55democratic, inclusive the new government will be. That depends much on the policies and strategies
16:03of STS and the allied groups. And here, I think the international community, they do have really
16:11a lot of leverage in Syria. The US has a lot of leverage, the sanctions, the UN has a lot of,
16:21you know, experience and leverage also on these groups, particularly STS, because they want to
16:26be recognized as the new rulers of Syria. And if they want to be recognized as the new rulers,
16:32so they need to have the trust of the Syrians. They need to build their legitimacy. They need
16:39to be, they need to build an inclusive, accountable, fairly democratic, you know, government
16:47and a state. And then I think, then we will see support, international support, regional support,
16:55financial support from the Arab Gulf countries, from EU, from Western countries to help Syria,
17:03you know, to help Syrians to rebuild their country.
17:08Kawa, given what you just said, certainly already within hours of Assad fleeing the capital,
17:14Israel began to carry out airstrikes on what they described as strategic weapons systems
17:20inside Syria. They also say that ground troop operations on Syrian territory were being held,
17:26but they would be a limited temporary step. Certainly, Iran must be watching this situation
17:35unfold very nervously indeed. They've lost critical support in a neighbouring country at a time
17:41when Donald Trump is about to enter the White House, threatening tougher sanctions against Tehran.
17:48Kawa, your thoughts?
17:50Yes, I agree with your colleague when he said, you know, Russia is one of the biggest losers,
17:56but actually the biggest loser is Iran and its so-called axis of resistance.
18:03They have lost big time and they, you know, Iranian regime built for decades, it has built this
18:12axis of allies and proxies and has, you know, expanded its influence in the region and Syria
18:20was key in that so-called forward defence strategy. That has gone. It's over, game over
18:28in Syria, at least for Iran. So Iran here is really the biggest loser and we are seeing, you
18:34know, from attempts by Iranian officials, media scramble to think about kind of a next strategy,
18:45but we'll see, you know, how Iranians will respond to this massive geopolitical tsunami,
18:52because what is happening right now in Syria, I mean, you rightly said what happens in Syria
18:57doesn't stay in Syria. This is a geopolitical tsunami with massive geopolitical ramifications
19:03and the biggest loser here is Iran and its axis of resistance.
19:07Doug, Donald Trump has already posted on social media that he doesn't want America to get involved,
19:13yet the US does indeed have a military presence in the east of the country fighting the remains
19:19of ISIS. So is Donald Trump going to move to reduce the American presence in Syria as a result?
19:24Look, Donald Trump, he campaigned on a pledge of reducing the American
19:28footprint abroad in all sorts of wars and conflicts. He just doesn't want to be involved
19:33entangled in any foreign adventures, as you will, and he wants to make sure that
19:39all of all the problems he's tackling are really mostly on the home front. That said, you know,
19:44Donald Trump is already, he's not president yet. He has a little over 40 days until he is sworn in,
19:49but he is exerting his sort of a shadow foreign policy that is way overshadowing Joe Biden,
19:54who is still the actual president's policy. This non-interventionist policy might be easier said
19:59than done. The US has had, like you said, just under a thousand troops based mostly in eastern
20:04Syria since really the early days of the civil war fighting the Islamic State group, fighting
20:10those hardened Islamist extremists. And in the past few days, as a result of the fears of a vacuum
20:17and the fears that the ISIS group could reconstitute itself, we have seen US strikes against and
20:23publicized strikes against the Islamic State group in Syria. You might've thought, oh, they've
20:27gone away. The ISIS hasn't existed since they were wiped off the map in Iraq and Syria, you know,
20:32five, six, seven years ago, but they're very much still there in little patches. So they are going,
20:36that's going to remain a clear and present danger, regardless of Donald Trump's stated
20:40intentions of not getting entangled or involved in Syria. I'll say this one thing, Annette,
20:44for the Americans watching this, for the White House watching it, it's a very, they boil it down
20:48to a very simple equation. Assad, bad. Anything that brings down and topples Assad, good. If
20:55there's nuance, the only nuance there is, is what this HTS, what this rebel group is really about.
21:01If they are terrorists and they're still on the terrorist list, if they have extremist ties,
21:05can we take them at their word when they say they're cutting their ties to Al Qaeda? They've
21:09done so, and they want to be more moderate and more open to religious tolerance and the idea
21:14of pluralism. That's what the US is going to be watching for signs of.
21:17Thank you, Douglas. And Kawa, final question to you. The other neighbouring country, of course,
21:22is Israel, who clearly doesn't want to have a Libya style scenario on its doorstep. And again,
21:29you know, Tel Aviv, like Washington and Moscow, very much caught by the suddenness of this
21:35uprising and the success as such. So what do you think is going to happen with the Israelis,
21:41especially given that the war continues in Gaza?
21:44Right. I think the Israelis were caught by surprise, not by the event itself, but by the
21:49speed of the march towards Damascus, just like, you know, maybe also Turkey, but also the rebels
21:56themselves. They were surprised by, you know, the speed with which really the regime fell.
22:01So I think Israel here has, obviously, the war in Gaza continues. And that is, you know, Israel's
22:10biggest problem. Right now, no, not even, not a prospect of a ceasefire there in Gaza.
22:17When it comes to Syria, obviously, they are happy with the fall of Assad. That was the devil they
22:24knew. But now that that devil has gone and Iran's influence in country has broken, they are happy
22:32with it. But of course, they're also concerned about what comes next. Will the new government
22:38will be, you know, will be ready to kind of reach an agreement with Israel about the, you know,
22:49about the relations between both countries? We don't know yet. Yesterday, I saw an interesting
22:53interview with an opposition officer from Aleppo, who was really, you know, very frank about the
23:00need to have normal relations with Syria. Well, that is only one officer, you know,
23:08from Idlib. But again, we have to wait and see, you know, the foreign policy of the new
23:14government and how that will, you know, how will that impact the relations with Israel.
23:22Okay. I'd like to, at this point, thank my guest, Kawa Hassan from the Stimson Centre,
23:28and also Doug Herbert, our very own international affairs commentator. Thank you to both of you for
23:33your analysis.