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00:00I bet we're going to get some more analysis on the situation in Syria now.
00:03We can cross live to Emma Beals from the European Institutes of Peace.
00:07Thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.
00:11I'm going to come from where we left off with Doug there.
00:14The question on everyone's lips, what is going to happen next?
00:18Is it going to be Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that's going to try to assume power in Syria?
00:24Well those conversations are ongoing at the moment.
00:27So you've seen some images emerge today of HTS's civilian branch meeting with former
00:34government.
00:35So the regime government, not the Assad family and those sort of cronies, but people who
00:40were ministers to try to talk about a peaceful transition of the functions of the state.
00:48You also have some conversations going on between these various armed factions about
00:53who will be doing what.
00:54But of course we also have the UN-led peace process with the political opposition on the
01:00Syrian side and a whole lot of civil society as well.
01:03And then this has kind of tipped things upside down because these armed factions, as they
01:09were going along, were calling all sorts of different communities of different sects and
01:13backgrounds and saying, you know, we mean you no harm, please sort of don't fight us.
01:19And that's exactly what happened.
01:21So you've seen in Tartus and Latakia and places that were thought to be regime strongholds,
01:27in part because of politics, but also in part because of background, also having cooperated
01:33with this.
01:34So, you know, the UN-led peace process will probably need to take place, going back to
01:38this idea of a transitional government that is representative of all of those groups within
01:44civil society, not just the armed factions, to make sure that this next phase is peaceful,
01:50that the things of looking at the constitution and how the country is going to be run under
01:54civilian rule will be representative of all Syrians, but also safe for all Syrians as
02:01well.
02:02All right.
02:03And Nabil, I'm just going to ask you to hold on there for a moment because we've just made
02:05contact with our senior reporter in Damascus, in Syria.
02:09We're just going to check in with him to see what the situation is like there.
02:13James Andre is on the line with us.
02:15James, what is the mood there in Damascus?
02:19Is it still joy reigning or are we getting a feeling of uncertainty?
02:23Well, look, it's very much joy.
02:26I'm in, I'm in Umayyad Square in the central, central of Damascus.
02:31And indeed, what I'm seeing here is a lot of celebratory gunfire, families out walking
02:37around.
02:38There is a group of people who are standing on a T-72 tank that's parked here.
02:43The tank that was obviously part of Bashar al-Assad's army, the regime's army.
02:49And indeed, people basically just very, very happy celebrating on the way in here.
02:54What we saw also was basically a clear road, no soldiers from the Syrian army whatsoever.
03:03We just drove right in and we saw groups of people who had been in forced exile, some
03:08of them for over 10 years, arrive, jump out of their cars, prostrate and kiss the soil
03:14of their country, telling us that it was their dream.
03:17One lady said, you know, I did not imagine I would see it again before my death.
03:23So obviously a lot, a lot of joy here.
03:25Also, I've been speaking to people here on the square.
03:28One woman we interviewed with the team who told us that we asked her if she was worried
03:33for, you know, giving the Tadiz and Islamist coalition taking power.
03:36She said, no, I'm not worried for the future of women in Syria.
03:39I was much more worried before under the regime.
03:43Also, we spoke to one of the rebel commanders from Idlib who was here with his men, indeed
03:50meeting the population.
03:51So, of course, for him, you know, it was quite an achievement to manage to come to Damascus.
03:55Obviously, in this blitz, this military blitz with indeed the Syrian forces, this is what
04:03he told us, who were not holding their positions, was basically leaving their positions, leaving
04:08their guns and basically running away.
04:12So, indeed, they were able to advance very rapidly, given the context.
04:16He was telling us as well that, yes, the celebratory gunfire is not exactly the kind of image that
04:22the new rulers, if you will, of Syria want to show.
04:26So he was telling me that, you know, you can't stop people from celebrating today, because
04:30obviously it is such an historic and important day.
04:33But he said, you know, as soon as tomorrow, they were going to ban from celebrating gunfire
04:38and confiscate the weapons of those who wouldn't comply.
04:41So, indeed, trying there again to, well, show control of the city and the situation.
04:49And, of course, you can hear the gunfire behind me right now.
04:53And, of course, well, amidst both this joy, which is also some form of chaos, try and
05:00take control of this country where we've seen a lot of people along the road ripping down
05:05the pictures of Bashar al-Assad, destroying his statues.
05:10So, yes, very much a feeling that this country, or at least this is at this stage, there is
05:16joy and the feeling of liberation.
05:19All right, James Andre reporting for us there live from Damascus, along with some live pictures
05:25on your screens there of Damascus.
05:27We're going to go back to Emma Beals from the European Institute of Peace, who's still
05:32with us.
05:33I wanted to ask you, HTS is a designated terrorist organisation by the US and other states.
05:39So how will the outgoing and incoming administrations in Washington deal with this if the group
05:44is to assume power in Syria?
05:46Well, I think it's unlikely that any one group will assume power.
05:51And HTS, you know, when they took Aleppo had said that they would, you know, leave the
05:56city and for there to be civilian rule there.
05:58So I don't think that their plan is to try to take over wholesale, because I think they
06:03understand the context better than that.
06:06And they certainly weren't the only armed group that made this happen.
06:10And therefore, they understand that that won't go over very well.
06:13But I do know that countries are looking at whether or not the designation should be maintained.
06:19Because over the last while, HTS have undergone a major sort of transition in how they operate.
06:25They have removed away from any kind of transnational terrorism.
06:30They have gone after other factions in Idlib who have those aspirations, and that's been
06:35happening over a very long time, not just very recently.
06:37What we've also seen in the way that they've conducted this campaign, and of course, the
06:41proof will be in the pudding.
06:42We will see how this plays out over the coming weeks and months.
06:45But they have been very conciliatory to other other sects, religions, groups sort of saying
06:52we're all Syrian, very much a Syrian first message, allowing, you know, Christian communities
06:58to continue their worship and not bothering anyone in that respect.
07:03Today, we've seen some suggestions that they're also saying it would be forbidden for any
07:07of their fighters to talk to women about how they should be dressing or conducting themselves.
07:12And those kind of things would really indicate quite a huge shift, quite an understanding
07:17that they're not going to be able to come in and really push a deeply conservative role.
07:22And I think that those sorts of signs are the things that people who are in charge of
07:26these sorts of designations would be looking to as to whether or not this is a group that
07:30they would be able to deal with, even if they form part of a government in the future.
07:35All right.
07:36And I think, Doug, did you have a question?
07:39Yeah, quick question, Emma.
07:41Just curious, you know, we've heard that, you know, Assad fled and was offered a sanctuary
07:45in Moscow by the by the by the Kremlin.
07:48And I'm just curious what you make of that, obviously, Russia for many years being the
07:52backer and perhaps the power that enabled Assad to remain in power from 2015 on.
07:59What were Russia's motives for giving him sanctuary?
08:04How much of a of a defeat do you see this for Russia's policy in this region?
08:09Well, I think we heard at the beginning of the revolution, this idea of Assad or we burn
08:14the country.
08:15And that's basically what has happened over the last nearly 14 years.
08:18He burned the country to protect himself.
08:21And so I think it was it's very clear that he was prepared to do that.
08:25And so, you know, that kind of deal making, I think, was ostensibly because Russia and
08:29Iran did not want to come in and fight for him, but knew that there was, you know, a
08:35strong possibility that he would be inclined to fight for himself.
08:38And nobody, none of the regional states, Russia or Iran, by the time, you know, these rebel
08:43groups reached Damascus, wanted to see street to street fighting in Damascus, the collapse
08:47of that city, you know, violence across there and everything that that would mean.
08:52And so that kind of deal, I imagine, was primarily about making sure that whatever
08:56came next, it did not involve, you know, the total degradation of order in the country
09:02because it has been so long, you know, Russia was talking to rebel groups about protecting
09:07their own interests and getting Assad out, I believe, helped them to do that.
09:13But in terms of a defeat, it's it's huge.
09:15You know, he has been maintaining Assad's rule, has been a central part of their foreign
09:20policy for for a long time.
09:22It's obviously not the only priority for either Russia or Iran.
09:26But this kind of of catastrophic defeat so quickly, you know, and sort of having to evacuate
09:34this this fellow out after everything that they had sort of done to help preserve his
09:38role in order to preserve their own interests will be, you know, extremely embarrassing
09:42for them.
09:43All right, Emma Beals from the European Institute of Peace, I'm afraid we'll have to leave it
09:47there.
09:48But thank you very much for speaking to us on France 24.
09:50Thank you for having me.