• last year
Transcript
00:00Okay, what do you think?
00:02Well, stock down, it's just a question of how far would you allow the stock to fall
00:08because they went to Green Bay and he didn't play and the offense looked pretty putrid
00:14and then you look at yesterday and I know it was a snow game but the mistake that he
00:18made not holding onto the ball when he was trying to throw it is largely unacceptable
00:24and the offense didn't do a lot that was largely positive so yeah, the stock is down.
00:31I'm not getting off of the they're definitely going to sign Brock Purdy train because I
00:36think that they're definitely still going to sign Brock Purdy but if you want to ask
00:41about the number, what kind of a contract is he looking at?
00:45I was looking at Jordan Love, four-year, $220 million and the guaranteed number is $160.
00:54That's the practical guarantee.
00:55That's a 55 AAV if they hold him.
00:59So I look at that as a contract that I think is a fair comp.
01:03Jordan Love is having a better year, Brock Purdy has done more in his career early on.
01:07The other contract is Jared Goff who signed for four years and $134 million, it was an
01:16extension, it was four and two twelve so a year got tacked on and his guarantee is $170.
01:22And that's what, $52, $53?
01:24Yeah, $53 I think.
01:25Those are the ones I think in terms of the Brock Purdy's neighborhood, I think he's going
01:30to be more in that neighborhood than a market resetter.
01:33Here's where I am on the Purdy conversation and you and I have been very, I think pretty
01:40firm in our opinion that this contract is going to happen and it was going to be not
01:48necessarily $60 but north of $50.
01:52Now, could that eventually end up being incorrect?
01:57I'll allow for it could be, we might be wrong on that.
02:00I think that there's more up in the air than there was, however, I will say this, I would
02:06still, I would still today predict two things, A, yes Brock Purdy is the quarterback of the
02:11future and B, yes I still think it will be north of $50 million.
02:16Now I could be wrong but here's what I'd add to the conversation.
02:21They don't have to do this, this off season.
02:24They kind of do.
02:25They don't have, no they don't have to.
02:28Legally they don't have to, but you would never want your quarterback to go into a lame
02:31duck year.
02:32You wouldn't want that, but.
02:34And I don't think that he would do that.
02:37Okay, here's what I'm, I get where you're coming from.
02:41If I'm Brock and I'm Brock's agent, I'm going, dude my salary next year is at $1.1 million.
02:46What am I really risking?
02:48Like I'm not going to go out there and play on $1.1 million because you won't pay me.
02:56I'm not going to go out like, what am I really risking?
02:58My game checks are, I mean you do the math.
03:00What is that?
03:01My game checks.
03:02That's about 70 grand.
03:03Yeah, 70 grand.
03:04Like I'm going to, I'll risk four game checks that total $340,000 or $320,000 or whatever
03:12that number is, I don't even know.
03:13I guess it's 280.
03:14I'll risk $280,000, skip four games, ruin your season.
03:20That's my leverage.
03:21The other side to it though is Brock's not going to want to do that either because that
03:27sends his value down some sort of a rabbit hole.
03:31And what if the Niners come out and go three and one in those four games that he misses?
03:35And he's got huge, huge life-changing dollars sitting on the line.
03:40So does that increase his willingness to take a little bit less?
03:45I still think there's a lot of information that needs to come in on the remaining five
03:49regular season games before you really get a clear view of exactly what that dollar figure
03:56is.
03:57I just want to point out that the 49ers do have that in their hip pocket.
04:01I'll agree with you.
04:02It's not ideal.
04:03It's the same thing I said about IUC.
04:06You don't want to do that, but I don't know what Brock's agent is going to show up and
04:11say.
04:12If he truly does walk in there and go, well, he beat Jordan Love in the playoffs, and he
04:17beat Dak Prescott in the playoffs, and he's certainly better than Trevor Lawrence, we're
04:21doing 60.
04:23And the Niners are like, well, no, we're not doing 60.
04:27Now if they say that, and it is in the 49ers' hip pocket, I just want people to realize
04:33that.
04:34They don't have to do this.
04:36And Brock is not a free agent.
04:37He can't just leave and go somewhere else.
04:40But he can do what Brandon Iyuk did, and he can hold in, and he can come out and be raring
04:46to go for week one, which they won't play him.
04:49And so you'll have Josh Dobbs or whoever replaces him, or Brandon Allen, not Josh Allen, not
04:54the good Allen, you'll have the other Allen, sorry, Brandon.
04:57And so he could do what Iyuk did and just hold in, or he could do what Trent did and
05:02hold out.
05:03He could.
05:04But the point is that the team does not want him to exercise.
05:08I guess what's weird about what we saw in the offseason with Brandon is this.
05:13Clearly the 49ers' intention all along was to keep him.
05:16Right.
05:17Or else you wouldn't have given him $30 million at any point.
05:20And they did.
05:21So if your intention was to keep him, then I'd argue this is the mistake the 49ers made.
05:25Big time.
05:26Why did you play such hardball if your intention was to keep him?
05:30And you end up giving him $30 anyway.
05:31You could have signed him for cheaper earlier.
05:33This only went up.
05:34Exactly right.
05:35So the question that the 49ers need to answer going into the offseason is, is it our clear-stated
05:43intention to keep him?
05:45Are we convinced that he is the future quarterback of the Niners?
05:49If you ask me, I'd say yes.
05:51But I don't know where the Niners are on this.
05:53They've said publicly that that is their intention.
05:56I don't know if anything has happened this year to change that.
05:59My guess would be no.
06:02If it is their clear intention to keep him, then yes.
06:06I would adjust the way you go about negotiating and try to do this as early as possible, knowing
06:14that when you stretch this out, it seems like the price only goes up.
06:19There are only other quarterbacks who are just going to keep getting signed the further
06:24this goes.
06:25And then you risk going into camp and having something happen like what's happened the
06:29last two years in a row with Nick Bosa, Brandon Ayuk, to a lesser degree, Trent Williams.
06:34The only difference in this case is, and I'm just looking at the list right now of quarterback
06:39free agents, they aren't great.
06:41There aren't that many.
06:42So you don't have the same fear of a free agent popping off and resetting the market.
06:49Sam Darnold right now is the most prized free agent to be.
06:52And he's making $10 million this year.
06:54And you would expect he gets a raise.
06:56If I'm Minnesota, I'm going to keep him.
06:59I don't know.
07:00They're in a super weird situation.
07:02Because A, they just brought in Daniel Jones so they can get a look at him.
07:06And B, they've drafted in the top 15.
07:09They did.
07:10They drafted a rookie last year.
07:11You can look at what Green Bay has done.
07:12You don't have to just draft and play immediately.
07:14And if you're winning with Sam Darnold, I'd be shocked if Darnold goes in the playoffs
07:19and maybe wins a game and they move off him.
07:22That to me would be risky.
07:24What if they go to the playoffs and lose in round one?
07:26Then you might have a different question.
07:28Daniel Jones still there.
07:29Would you rather have Daniel Jones, who I think is also going to be a free agent, right?
07:33His $40 million is coming off somebody's books.
07:35But the list of names is Trey Lance and Mariotta, Drew Locke, Andy Dalton.
07:42All the backups.
07:43Correct.
07:44These are not market resetters.
07:45So if you're the Niners and Parag, you're not as motivated to beat the market because
07:50there aren't a lot of other quarterbacks who are going to go out there and get big money.
07:54The other thing I'll say, and I know this is a long play.
07:57It's possible that the Niners still, and I think it's actually probable, that the Niners
08:02still really like Brock Purdy.
08:04They still very much believe in everything that has been created with the whole team.
08:10And when they're blessed with a little bit more health and all of this, that Brock Purdy
08:14is an effective quarterback who's already been to two NFC Championship games and a Super
08:18Bowl and won four playoff games and all those things that were already true.
08:22And they still believe in all of that.
08:24Yet, they also see that what's happening this year, it might lower the price a little bit.
08:30Definitely.
08:31And maybe that's a good thing.
08:32Well, and I also think that what happened with Brandon Iuke might give them a little
08:36bit of a sticker shock because you paid Brandon Iuke huge money and now he's gone for a year.
08:42And that's not his fault and it's not their fault.
08:44They didn't know that he was going to get hurt when they signed him.
08:46But you did lay out this gigantic contract for a guy who's now going to be unavailable.
08:51And as we talked about the wide receiver market continuing to be bananas, maybe the quarterback
08:57market at some point does recess a little bit or recede rather to where you're not just
09:02going to reset the market every time somebody comes up.
09:05Let's go to Will in the East Bay.
09:07Hey, Will, you're on Willard & Dibbs.
09:08What's up?
09:09Well, I hope you guys had a wonderful Thanksgiving.
09:13I did.
09:14Hey, there's nothing like a little golf in the early morning and getting together with
09:19family and friends and, uh, you know, a good meal and in the evening and drink.
09:25Kind of lucky to live where we live, right?
09:27I think the people in Buffalo did not play golf this week.
09:32I don't think so.
09:33I agree with you.
09:35Listen, my, my call is more focused on the character of Brock Purdy.
09:40This is a kid from Arizona, played at Idaho State or not Idaho, uh, Iowa State.
09:47Yeah.
09:48Yes, sir.
09:49And played very well.
09:51Okay.
09:52And he's done very well with the 49ers with everything that's gone on this year.
09:57Okay.
09:58With the injuries, you know, his lack of superb play.
10:03I think when it comes down to contract time, everybody's talking about the big bag.
10:09Well, I think this guy is going to be very pragmatic.
10:13He's recently married and this young man is going to come to an agreement with the
10:1849ers, you know, on a certain amount.
10:22And like Christian McCaffrey did, you know, it's going to be a done deal.
10:26He's not going to be holding out.
10:27Okay.
10:28He's not going to be out of camp or come into camp and not be practicing with the team.
10:34All right.
10:36He's going to be there, you know, and I think that's going to work.
10:39By the way, a shout out, by the way, the California guys like Jared golf from the wine
10:44country and that young man from central California agricultural country, you know what I'm talking
10:52about?
10:53Yeah.
10:54Josh Allen.
10:55Okay.
10:56And the other guy from Chico was almost a footnote.
10:59Okay.
11:00Anyway, you got it anyway.
11:05I just, uh, enjoy you guys always taking my calls and, uh, I dig you and I dig your show.
11:13And uh, if you want to say something right now, it's okay or cut me off.
11:17Um, well it feels like, yeah, it feels like the right time to hang up on you either way.
11:21Well, run this guy.
11:22Yeah.
11:23All right.
11:24Thank you for the call though.
11:25Jared got from Novato.
11:26Uh, not a lot of wine being grown in Novato, not necessarily the wine country, but it's
11:30a short, short drive out to Sonoma.
11:32No doubt.
11:33No doubt.
11:34Yeah.
11:35I mean, you can get there.
11:36I get it.
11:37Get yourself up to Petaluma.
11:38Yeah.
11:39Live there for a long time.
11:40Yeah.
11:41Not a lot of wine being grown in Petaluma either.
11:42No, but you're in there.
11:43A lot of chickens in Petaluma.
11:44You're in there.
11:45You know, like the eggs, right?
11:46Like you're, you're Sonoma adjacent.
11:47Now, if you want to get up to Windsor, Grandy country, now you'll get into some wineries
11:52up there.
11:53I mean, we could have a conversation about that if you want.
11:55Like, I mean.
11:56You drinking wine at Granny's house?
11:57Uh, I'm into it.
11:59I've never done it before, but, uh, but I, I'm, I'm willing to try.
12:03We had a good few glasses of wine on, uh, on our first night down and I went down to
12:08see my sister and, uh, yeah, we got after a little bit, like my version of getting after
12:14it a little bit.
12:15Two drinks.
12:16There might've been three.
12:17That's bananas.
12:18Three.
12:19I'm surprised you were able to make it in today.
12:20Number three.
12:21Uh, let's drink.
12:22Yeah.
12:23You know, we had a few days off.
12:26I gave out my first referee lecture of the year, which was nice.
12:29Wait, you get, oh, you get, I was reffing in this young fifth grader.
12:33I was giving me Iguodala.
12:34Wait, who was playing Thanksgiving?
12:35Iguodala.
12:36It's a Thanksgiving jamboree.
12:37Oh.
12:38Up in, uh, up in Marin and this kid gave me multiple Iguodalas and so with the palms up.
12:42You were handing out lectures for the holidays?
12:44Stop the game.
12:45I hate referee dibs.
12:47I, it was Thanksgiving and I wanted him to be thankful for the fact that I'm not teeing
12:52him up.
12:53Okay.
12:54I just had to let him know that the, the complaining about every single action, it doesn't really
12:58work when you're a fifth grader.
12:59How long is the lecture?
13:01This one was about 60 seconds.
13:03Okay.
13:0460 seconds.
13:05Yeah.
13:06And he was angry, Jeff.
13:07That's awesome.
13:08He wasn't angry.
13:09Try to, try to head it off.
13:10He was very receptive to my, my teaching and then he didn't say a word the rest of the
13:14game.
13:15So I went up to him after the game.
13:16I said, Hey, way to make the adjustment.
13:19Good game, bro.
13:20Does his team win or lose?
13:22Oh, they won.
13:23Oh.
13:24And they were up at the time.
13:26Complaining about calls and on Thanksgiving jamboree.
13:28What the hell's wrong with these kids?
13:30I mean, what do you do?
13:33What do you do working on Thanksgiving running around out there on a, on both your bum legs?
13:38Why don't you sit out and take a break?
13:40It was a black and blue Friday for your boy.
13:43Aren't they all?
13:44Yep.