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00:00Here's the thing, I looked at this game and I knew almost immediately what needed to be
00:06done.
00:07The question was, would I do it?
00:10Because you look at this game and he's right.
00:13You go, well, Penn State can't win a big game.
00:17Move on.
00:18Next.
00:19Here's the issue though.
00:20They can't beat Ohio State.
00:22They can't beat Michigan.
00:24But I, and you know this has been the case all year, I'm not sure Oregon is as good as
00:30everybody thinks.
00:31I'll throw out just two quick things.
00:33I know they're not perfect.
00:35FPI.
00:36Do you know who's not inside the top five on the ESPN FPI?
00:40Penn State, I guess.
00:42And Oregon.
00:43Oh, wow.
00:44Which you never would imagine.
00:45Strength of schedule.
00:46You know, the thing that is told everybody, Indiana doesn't belong in the dance one bit.
00:51Right.
00:5265th.
00:53You got to imagine the Ducks are somewhere.
00:5460th.
00:55Yeah.
00:56Oregon.
00:57Like, I'll be honest.
00:59Every team other than Georgia is in their position because of the strength of schedule.
01:05Now they beat Ohio State by one at home.
01:08Again, if Oregon is all that good, that's what you're supposed to do.
01:13Speaking of the game against Ohio State that Oregon was home for, they were three and a
01:17half point dog.
01:18You know who also is a three and a half point home dog to Ohio State?
01:22Penn State.
01:24Spread math for anybody on a Saturday morning, and I'll throw this last one out there.
01:28They've played seven common opponents, the Ducks and the Nittany Lions, and the better
01:32point differential, despite the loss, belongs to Penn State.
01:37The hook matters.
01:39It could be a close game.
01:40I'm taking the three and a half with Penn State.
01:42So when this line opened up on Saturday, after Ohio State faltered in the game for a fourth
01:48consecutive season, they were the anticipated team and the odds-on favorite to play Oregon
01:54in Indy on this first Saturday in December.
01:57I bet the Ducks, playing three and a half, thinking I was being a shop, and I would get
02:02the best of the number.
02:04It would be four and a half, five, five and a hook on this Saturday.
02:08It has not moved a lick.
02:11In fact, if you want some odds optimism for the Nittany Lions, despite being a dog, to
02:16take the dog, you got to lay a little bit more juice on this Saturday in Indianapolis.
02:22But Kev, right back to you.
02:24Penn State has been an underdog five times since the start of 2022.
02:28All five times, as you might imagine, against Ohio State, three times in Michigan, twice.
02:34The Nittany Lions are 0-5 straight up with only a single cover, and that happened against
02:40Ohio State back in 2022.
02:42They lost by double digits, but did cover as a 15-and-a-half-point underdog.
02:48Why is this time different?
02:50Why do the Nittany Lions keep this game competitive?
02:52I mean, look, part of it is who is across from them.
02:57Like, I don't want to—Oregon did beat Ohio State, right?
03:01That did happen.
03:03That is the only—Dan Lanning is James Franklin, but they played Georgia two years ago, dumped
03:09on their heads.
03:10Hold on.
03:11Let's forget that.
03:13Last year, they played Washington in the regular season.
03:15They didn't get it done.
03:17And then, one of my favorite calls you've ever made, weeks if not months in advance
03:22of what a Oregon-Washington Pac-12 rematch would be priced at.
03:29You said it would be a touchdown.
03:30He called you nuts, and you were right.
03:33And what happened?
03:34Washington won out.
03:35The Ducks laid an absolute egg.
03:37Oh my gosh, he's locked in on Saturday.
03:40This is a spot that I know Lanning got the win against Ohio State.
03:44I'm not saying he didn't.
03:46But if you're the best team in college football, winning by one at home is really not that
03:50much of an accomplishment.
03:51It's not.
03:52And I look at, what do I trust the most on this field?
03:56Believe it or not, it's the Penn State defense.
03:59That unit to me, I think Gabriel's got turnover problems, and I don't believe in that Oregon
04:04defense as much as everybody else.
04:06Two step-up spots, both in their building, 30-plus to both Ohio State and Boise State.
04:12I think Penn State, I don't even want to assign it to any players, I think Penn State can
04:16move the ball, Joe.
04:17They can move the ball.
04:18If they can run it, they're going to win this game.
04:20Now, a couple of things about the Penn State offense, I mean, they're 7-0 every time they
04:24pound the rock for over 200 yards, averaging 194 yards per game entering this matchup.
04:30They've won those seven games in 2024 by an average margin of victory of 29.1 points per
04:36game.
04:37And to Kevin's point about the front seven, they are rock solid.
04:39One of the best in college football, holding opposing offenses to 94 rushing yards per
04:44game, less than three yards per rush.
04:46They've held eight opponents under 100 yards this year.
04:49They've won those games by an average margin of 28.1 points per game.
04:53They shut down the rushing attack of Jordan James and that offensive line.
04:57They're going to be in this matchup.
04:59That's a tough ask, though.
05:00It is, because the pressure of knowing that James Franklin hasn't stepped up in this particular
05:05spot.
05:06How does the team respond?
05:07We saw them play down to the level of competition, Ball State, UCLA, Illinois, at home.
05:12They had won, but didn't cover those games.
05:15They didn't cover against Minnesota as an 11-and-a-half, 12-point road favorite.
05:19So there have been struggles throughout the season.
05:22This is an opportunity to erase that and just go for broke.