Merger antara XL Axiata dan Smartfren serta Smart Telecom telah diumumkan bahwa mencapai kesepakatan definitif yang kemudian akan melahirkan entitas XLSmart Telecom Sejahtera. Pangsa pasar XLSmart nantinya diproyeksi meningkat.
Category
📺
TVTranscript
00:00Game Plus Arcade, available only on RCTE Plus Super App. Play it now!
00:05And to discuss the latest information about the market,
00:08we will be joined by Mr. Patrick Jorgir, Research Analyst, FAC Securities Indonesia.
00:14Hello, good morning, Mr. Patrick.
00:17Hello, good morning, Mr. Prisha.
00:19Thank you for joining us this morning.
00:21Let's talk about the price index and the correlation first.
00:26How far do you see the price index and correlation movement?
00:30Yesterday, it was in session 1, at 7,500.
00:34But when it closed, it slightly dropped to 7,400 again.
00:40But if I look at it, Asing has recorded a net buy,
00:45around Rp 322 billion in the regular market.
00:52How far do you see the positive cons of the Indonesian capital market right now?
00:57Okay, that's right, Ms. Prisha.
00:59If we look at the intraday closing,
01:03the strengthening is much higher than the closing of the last session 2.
01:08If I'm honest, the closing in session 2 was also colored
01:14by the profit-taking action.
01:16Because this week we have strengthened in the last two days,
01:19and on Friday, we also closed and strengthened.
01:22So it's normal that there is profit-taking action at the same time.
01:26We are also waiting for the inflation data that was released yesterday
01:30for the US inflation.
01:32If we try to look at the monthly movement for the IASD,
01:37we can see that it is quite positive.
01:40If we compare it to November,
01:42in November, we are among the stock markets in the ASEAN region with the lowest weakness.
01:47We are in the second lowest after the Philippines.
01:50And if we look at the foreign flow,
01:54we also export around Rp 6 trillion.
01:58So it's true what Ms. Prisha said earlier,
02:00that from the foreign flow side, it's much better.
02:04Foreign trade pressure can also experience a weakness
02:08compared to last month.
02:10So for this month, we can see that the outlook is quite positive.
02:14The outlook is more positive, right?
02:16Yes, it's more positive when the consumer price index, or CPI,
02:20from the United States last night rose according to the forecast in November,
02:24both monthly and annually.
02:28This means that the chance of a 25 basis point gap by the Fed next week
02:33seems to be achieved.
02:34From the previous 70%,
02:37now the consensus is more and more certain that 95% there is a minimum gap of 25 basis points.
02:43How far can that be a booster for the consumer price index
02:47to appear more positive again at the end of the year?
02:50Okay, of course, this can be an additional catalyst booster.
02:54Because at the beginning of December,
02:57uncertainty arises from what the policy of the Fed will be like
03:03on December 17th and 18th.
03:06So this inflation data can be said to be confirmation data.
03:10After there is data from the employee side that tends to be colder
03:16and is confirmed with data inflation that is recorded
03:19to rise to level 2.7 or according to market expectations.
03:23So I see this data can be an additional booster for the consumer price index.
03:26Because indeed, from our domestic side, it is quite good.
03:30Because there is a phenomenon of window dressing,
03:34then from the net forensic side, it can also be reduced.
03:38And then our economic data, starting from consumer confidence, retail sales,
03:43and the like are also in a positive condition.
03:45So I see this US inflation data can be an additional booster
03:49to push our domestic catalyst which is quite strong.
03:53Okay, so there is a possibility that the Fed will meet next week
03:59until December 18th at a place that is increasing,
04:03decreasing the 25 basis points, right?
04:06Yes, that's right.
04:07Okay, you are also optimistic.
04:08How many share price index targets, if you look at it,
04:11if the scenario is that the Fed wants to increase the 25 basis points,
04:15then maybe there is a window dressing from the security effects,
04:18the target at the end of the year, how high can the HSK be closed?
04:22We see that until now,
04:25we have set the target until the end of the year at level 7,600.
04:297,600?
04:30Up to 7,700, yes, the highest.
04:32There is still a chance of around 200 points, right?
04:36That's right.
04:37Okay, let's move on to the property stock sector.
04:40This is the strongest in the trade.
04:41Yesterday, it rose by around 1.49%.
04:44What are the opportunities of these stocks?
04:46Is it because there is a flow of the flower family
04:49that may also affect the flower family in the country,
04:51so that the property will be lifted?
04:53Or do you see other sentiments in the property sector that are interesting?
04:58Yes, that's right, ma'am.
04:59Aside from the US flower family,
05:03which is potentially lifted,
05:05and later will also affect the Indonesian flower family policy,
05:08because our policy is outward-looking for the monetary policy.
05:12We see that from the government's concern to the property sector as well.
05:16We see that the government is quite concerned about this sector,
05:20starting from providing some additional stimulus,
05:23such as DP 0%, then there are facilities dependents, etc.
05:28So we see that this sector is actually for 2025,
05:33it can be a sector that we can pay special attention to.
05:36Because if we compare it to 2024-2023,
05:41the movement of the property sector is less likely to get a boost.
05:45Especially when it comes to the high flower family.
05:47So when the flower family is confirmed,
05:49it turns out that there is a low flower family era,
05:51it can be a positive thing for the property sector.
05:53Okay.
05:53It means that the property sector is experiencing a boost,
05:56you don't see that this is just a short term,
05:58but you see that for 2025, this sector is also worthy of respect.
06:03That's right.
06:04Now, Emiten.
06:05If yesterday was the one that was booming,
06:08related to BYD Motors Indonesia,
06:10which entered the SSEA to pay land,
06:14and the news is that in December it will be paid off,
06:17and make the SSEA optimistic that it can boost
06:21from its income to 6 trillion rupiah.
06:25Well, you yourself are more interested,
06:27if we talk about the property, what kind of stock is it?
06:31For the property sector itself,
06:33if I'm personal,
06:35because from the catalyst,
06:36the industry itself is very positive in 2025.
06:39So for the stock pick property selection,
06:42I will be more concerned from the valuation side.
06:45At the same time, in the third quarter,
06:47I also pay attention to whether the performance is positive or not.
06:51From the majority of the property sector,
06:53the third quarter performance is recorded as recovering or improving.
06:58So we just need to focus on the valuation side,
07:01where the valuation of Emiten-Emiten property
07:04in November is quite deep.
07:07Starting from BSDE, then SMRA, and also CTRA.
07:10If we look at the price movement, it's quite deep,
07:13so if we try to look at the price-to-book value ratio,
07:16it's already too cheap.
07:18Moreover, the third quarter of 2024 is also recorded as positive.
07:22Okay, you are more interested in BSDE, SMRA,
07:24then one more thing?
07:26There is CTRA.
07:27CTRA.
07:28If we talk about property, you are more interested in the one
07:31whose valuation has dropped a lot to start in the lyrical,
07:37investing in 2025.
07:38Okay, let's move on to other Emiten news.
07:42There is a merger scheme from
07:45XL Asiata and also Smartfriend,
07:48as well as Smarttelecom,
07:50which will give birth to the XL Smarttelecom Sejatera entity.
07:54The effective date is still April 15, 2025,
08:00but it has already started to be talked about by netizens.
08:04What will the stock look like later?
08:06And it looks like it will be merged with XL,
08:10or XL Asiata.
08:12What will the impact be on the stock?
08:15Maybe there are a lot of people who still have this stock.
08:19What will happen between XJL and Friend?
08:23Okay, that's right.
08:25If we look at it, this corporation action can be said to be not the first.
08:30Because in the past few years, Indosat's competitor also did the same merger.
08:36If we look at it in the long run,
08:39this corporation action will of course have a positive impact
08:42on the company's own performance,
08:44both on the balance sheet and on the income statement.
08:47At the same time, the service side to the community will also increase.
08:52Because the number of networks owned by Friend
08:55will be combined with the number of networks owned by XL.
08:58So it has the potential to make the spectrum itself
09:01match the second position, the largest in Indonesia.
09:04But if we try to relate it to the stock price movement,
09:08for this very prospective prospect,
09:12it can be said that it takes time to see if the performance is good or not.
09:18But if we talk in the long run, it's positive.
09:21In the current condition, of course,
09:23for sectors related to telecommunications,
09:26what we need to highlight is the valuation side.
09:28Where the valuation of the telecommunications sector is still quite cheap
09:32and also the prospect for 2025 is still positive,
09:36driven by our growing internet penetration every year.
09:40Okay, according to XL Asia,
09:42the merger will produce a company with a market share of 27%,
09:47increasing its competitor Indosat.
09:51You said earlier that it has to be seen first
09:54what the future will be like.
09:55The expectation is positive,
09:57but the reality is not yet certain.
10:00In terms of valuation, it's already interesting.
10:02But when it comes to valuation, it's also relatively low.
10:06Are you more interested in the telecommunications sector,
10:09Indosat, Friend, XL, Telkom, or FAC Securities?
10:16Okay, from us,
10:19we can see that the valuation point
10:23where almost all of the telecommunications emissions are cheap.
10:28But we will try to see the latest energy decrease in Q3 2024,
10:32where there are XL and Indosat that record growth.
10:35So we just need to combine it from that side and from the technical side.
10:40Because if we look at it now,
10:42for XL, from the movement, it is also recorded that it is experiencing a correction in the last two days.
10:47So maybe for XL, we can consider trading first to do trading.
10:51But for the long term, I feel for telecommunications emissions,
10:56because the industry is also in a good position,
10:59so we just need to combine it with the valuation and performance.
11:04Valuation and performance.
11:05If at the moment, valuation and performance are the most ideal, what are the emissions?
11:11If compared to the three main operators in Indonesia at the moment,
11:16we can see that XL and Indosat are quite positive in Q3.
11:23But for telecommunications, they have a highlight in the market.
11:26And if we look at the valuation, the price has been bottomed out.
11:30So the emissions are still attractive for 2025.
11:36More complete or more detailed, are you more interested in recommending what share?
11:41In the share selection segment, we will present
11:43and also update the opening of the first session this morning,
11:46according to the 1st edition of the IDX Channel.