• last week
Merger antara XL Axiata dan Smartfren serta Smart Telecom telah diumumkan bahwa mencapai kesepakatan definitif yang kemudian akan melahirkan entitas XLSmart Telecom Sejahtera. Pangsa pasar XLSmart nantinya diproyeksi meningkat.

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00:00Game Plus Arcade, available only on RCTE Plus Super App. Play it now!
00:05And to discuss the latest information about the market,
00:08we will be joined by Mr. Patrick Jorgir, Research Analyst, FAC Securities Indonesia.
00:14Hello, good morning, Mr. Patrick.
00:17Hello, good morning, Mr. Prisha.
00:19Thank you for joining us this morning.
00:21Let's talk about the price index and the correlation first.
00:26How far do you see the price index and correlation movement?
00:30Yesterday, it was in session 1, at 7,500.
00:34But when it closed, it slightly dropped to 7,400 again.
00:40But if I look at it, Asing has recorded a net buy,
00:45around Rp 322 billion in the regular market.
00:52How far do you see the positive cons of the Indonesian capital market right now?
00:57Okay, that's right, Ms. Prisha.
00:59If we look at the intraday closing,
01:03the strengthening is much higher than the closing of the last session 2.
01:08If I'm honest, the closing in session 2 was also colored
01:14by the profit-taking action.
01:16Because this week we have strengthened in the last two days,
01:19and on Friday, we also closed and strengthened.
01:22So it's normal that there is profit-taking action at the same time.
01:26We are also waiting for the inflation data that was released yesterday
01:30for the US inflation.
01:32If we try to look at the monthly movement for the IASD,
01:37we can see that it is quite positive.
01:40If we compare it to November,
01:42in November, we are among the stock markets in the ASEAN region with the lowest weakness.
01:47We are in the second lowest after the Philippines.
01:50And if we look at the foreign flow,
01:54we also export around Rp 6 trillion.
01:58So it's true what Ms. Prisha said earlier,
02:00that from the foreign flow side, it's much better.
02:04Foreign trade pressure can also experience a weakness
02:08compared to last month.
02:10So for this month, we can see that the outlook is quite positive.
02:14The outlook is more positive, right?
02:16Yes, it's more positive when the consumer price index, or CPI,
02:20from the United States last night rose according to the forecast in November,
02:24both monthly and annually.
02:28This means that the chance of a 25 basis point gap by the Fed next week
02:33seems to be achieved.
02:34From the previous 70%,
02:37now the consensus is more and more certain that 95% there is a minimum gap of 25 basis points.
02:43How far can that be a booster for the consumer price index
02:47to appear more positive again at the end of the year?
02:50Okay, of course, this can be an additional catalyst booster.
02:54Because at the beginning of December,
02:57uncertainty arises from what the policy of the Fed will be like
03:03on December 17th and 18th.
03:06So this inflation data can be said to be confirmation data.
03:10After there is data from the employee side that tends to be colder
03:16and is confirmed with data inflation that is recorded
03:19to rise to level 2.7 or according to market expectations.
03:23So I see this data can be an additional booster for the consumer price index.
03:26Because indeed, from our domestic side, it is quite good.
03:30Because there is a phenomenon of window dressing,
03:34then from the net forensic side, it can also be reduced.
03:38And then our economic data, starting from consumer confidence, retail sales,
03:43and the like are also in a positive condition.
03:45So I see this US inflation data can be an additional booster
03:49to push our domestic catalyst which is quite strong.
03:53Okay, so there is a possibility that the Fed will meet next week
03:59until December 18th at a place that is increasing,
04:03decreasing the 25 basis points, right?
04:06Yes, that's right.
04:07Okay, you are also optimistic.
04:08How many share price index targets, if you look at it,
04:11if the scenario is that the Fed wants to increase the 25 basis points,
04:15then maybe there is a window dressing from the security effects,
04:18the target at the end of the year, how high can the HSK be closed?
04:22We see that until now,
04:25we have set the target until the end of the year at level 7,600.
04:297,600?
04:30Up to 7,700, yes, the highest.
04:32There is still a chance of around 200 points, right?
04:36That's right.
04:37Okay, let's move on to the property stock sector.
04:40This is the strongest in the trade.
04:41Yesterday, it rose by around 1.49%.
04:44What are the opportunities of these stocks?
04:46Is it because there is a flow of the flower family
04:49that may also affect the flower family in the country,
04:51so that the property will be lifted?
04:53Or do you see other sentiments in the property sector that are interesting?
04:58Yes, that's right, ma'am.
04:59Aside from the US flower family,
05:03which is potentially lifted,
05:05and later will also affect the Indonesian flower family policy,
05:08because our policy is outward-looking for the monetary policy.
05:12We see that from the government's concern to the property sector as well.
05:16We see that the government is quite concerned about this sector,
05:20starting from providing some additional stimulus,
05:23such as DP 0%, then there are facilities dependents, etc.
05:28So we see that this sector is actually for 2025,
05:33it can be a sector that we can pay special attention to.
05:36Because if we compare it to 2024-2023,
05:41the movement of the property sector is less likely to get a boost.
05:45Especially when it comes to the high flower family.
05:47So when the flower family is confirmed,
05:49it turns out that there is a low flower family era,
05:51it can be a positive thing for the property sector.
05:53Okay.
05:53It means that the property sector is experiencing a boost,
05:56you don't see that this is just a short term,
05:58but you see that for 2025, this sector is also worthy of respect.
06:03That's right.
06:04Now, Emiten.
06:05If yesterday was the one that was booming,
06:08related to BYD Motors Indonesia,
06:10which entered the SSEA to pay land,
06:14and the news is that in December it will be paid off,
06:17and make the SSEA optimistic that it can boost
06:21from its income to 6 trillion rupiah.
06:25Well, you yourself are more interested,
06:27if we talk about the property, what kind of stock is it?
06:31For the property sector itself,
06:33if I'm personal,
06:35because from the catalyst,
06:36the industry itself is very positive in 2025.
06:39So for the stock pick property selection,
06:42I will be more concerned from the valuation side.
06:45At the same time, in the third quarter,
06:47I also pay attention to whether the performance is positive or not.
06:51From the majority of the property sector,
06:53the third quarter performance is recorded as recovering or improving.
06:58So we just need to focus on the valuation side,
07:01where the valuation of Emiten-Emiten property
07:04in November is quite deep.
07:07Starting from BSDE, then SMRA, and also CTRA.
07:10If we look at the price movement, it's quite deep,
07:13so if we try to look at the price-to-book value ratio,
07:16it's already too cheap.
07:18Moreover, the third quarter of 2024 is also recorded as positive.
07:22Okay, you are more interested in BSDE, SMRA,
07:24then one more thing?
07:26There is CTRA.
07:27CTRA.
07:28If we talk about property, you are more interested in the one
07:31whose valuation has dropped a lot to start in the lyrical,
07:37investing in 2025.
07:38Okay, let's move on to other Emiten news.
07:42There is a merger scheme from
07:45XL Asiata and also Smartfriend,
07:48as well as Smarttelecom,
07:50which will give birth to the XL Smarttelecom Sejatera entity.
07:54The effective date is still April 15, 2025,
08:00but it has already started to be talked about by netizens.
08:04What will the stock look like later?
08:06And it looks like it will be merged with XL,
08:10or XL Asiata.
08:12What will the impact be on the stock?
08:15Maybe there are a lot of people who still have this stock.
08:19What will happen between XJL and Friend?
08:23Okay, that's right.
08:25If we look at it, this corporation action can be said to be not the first.
08:30Because in the past few years, Indosat's competitor also did the same merger.
08:36If we look at it in the long run,
08:39this corporation action will of course have a positive impact
08:42on the company's own performance,
08:44both on the balance sheet and on the income statement.
08:47At the same time, the service side to the community will also increase.
08:52Because the number of networks owned by Friend
08:55will be combined with the number of networks owned by XL.
08:58So it has the potential to make the spectrum itself
09:01match the second position, the largest in Indonesia.
09:04But if we try to relate it to the stock price movement,
09:08for this very prospective prospect,
09:12it can be said that it takes time to see if the performance is good or not.
09:18But if we talk in the long run, it's positive.
09:21In the current condition, of course,
09:23for sectors related to telecommunications,
09:26what we need to highlight is the valuation side.
09:28Where the valuation of the telecommunications sector is still quite cheap
09:32and also the prospect for 2025 is still positive,
09:36driven by our growing internet penetration every year.
09:40Okay, according to XL Asia,
09:42the merger will produce a company with a market share of 27%,
09:47increasing its competitor Indosat.
09:51You said earlier that it has to be seen first
09:54what the future will be like.
09:55The expectation is positive,
09:57but the reality is not yet certain.
10:00In terms of valuation, it's already interesting.
10:02But when it comes to valuation, it's also relatively low.
10:06Are you more interested in the telecommunications sector,
10:09Indosat, Friend, XL, Telkom, or FAC Securities?
10:16Okay, from us,
10:19we can see that the valuation point
10:23where almost all of the telecommunications emissions are cheap.
10:28But we will try to see the latest energy decrease in Q3 2024,
10:32where there are XL and Indosat that record growth.
10:35So we just need to combine it from that side and from the technical side.
10:40Because if we look at it now,
10:42for XL, from the movement, it is also recorded that it is experiencing a correction in the last two days.
10:47So maybe for XL, we can consider trading first to do trading.
10:51But for the long term, I feel for telecommunications emissions,
10:56because the industry is also in a good position,
10:59so we just need to combine it with the valuation and performance.
11:04Valuation and performance.
11:05If at the moment, valuation and performance are the most ideal, what are the emissions?
11:11If compared to the three main operators in Indonesia at the moment,
11:16we can see that XL and Indosat are quite positive in Q3.
11:23But for telecommunications, they have a highlight in the market.
11:26And if we look at the valuation, the price has been bottomed out.
11:30So the emissions are still attractive for 2025.
11:36More complete or more detailed, are you more interested in recommending what share?
11:41In the share selection segment, we will present
11:43and also update the opening of the first session this morning,
11:46according to the 1st edition of the IDX Channel.

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