IHSG -1,63% ke 6.991,843di sesi I Kamis (19/12). IDX Sektor Kesehatan -2,91%. IDX Barang Baku -2,82%, IDX Sektor Teknologi -2,77%, IDX Sektor Transportasi dan Logistik -1,89% dan IDX Sektor Energi -1,81 dan IDX Sektor Keuangan -1,67%. Dari sisi saham, saham perbankan Big Caps kembali jadi pemberat terbesar, BMRI -3.00% sentuh level terendah setahun terakhir, BBRI -1,69% YTD -28,73% BBCA -0,77% dan BBNI -2,48% YTD -19,81%.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street terjerembab, Rabu, setelah The Fed menurunkan suku bunga 25 bps, namun memangkas jumlah pemotongan suku bunga di 2025.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street terjerembab, Rabu, setelah The Fed menurunkan suku bunga 25 bps, namun memangkas jumlah pemotongan suku bunga di 2025.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for staying with us in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout the day.
00:12Where the gas price in Kabungan is experiencing a deep correction of more than 2% and has been traded again at 6,900.
00:20And we remind you again, you can still participate actively on Whatsapp Interactive at 0812 8788 3723
00:28as shown on your television screen later.
00:30And right now we are connected with Zoom with Mr. Muhammad Wafir, who is a Research Analyst at RAHB Indonesia's Security.
00:38We will go straight to Mr. Wafir, good afternoon, how are you?
00:42Good afternoon, Mr. David, how are you? Still in the market?
00:47That's right, Mr. Wafir, today again experienced a deep correction of more than 2%
00:52This is also one of the weakest levels of the gas price in Kabungan, at least in the last few months.
00:59What is the analysis there, sir? The continuation of the weakening that happened today has even touched the lowest level again,
01:07a flashback to the middle of the year, at least in the last six months.
01:10Yes, if we look at one of the factors, this is indeed the main factor from the announcement of the Fed last night.
01:19Actually, what we need to be aware of together is that a decrease of 25 basis points is actually not a negative catalyst for the market, especially for HSG.
01:30However, the statement from Jerome Powell after that is what then made the market react quite negatively,
01:38where Jerome Powell said that it looks like next year the Fed will adopt a more hawkish policy,
01:45which means a slightly lower Fed rate than before.
01:51Now only about 50 basis points are estimated.
01:54So that's what makes investors, especially the global market, more worried about the output in 2025.
02:02And many investors are then more interested in the funds from other countries.
02:09And it can be seen from the strengthening of the US dollar.
02:13So the dollar index then experienced significant strengthening,
02:16and this strengthening of the dollar index indirectly made other countries' currency, including rupiah, experience weakness.
02:26That's what happened.
02:27And the weakness of rupiah also has an impact on the pressure in HSG.
02:32So that's one of the factors.
02:33The second factor is what we see.
02:36So the first thing we need to understand, the second point, is that the correction that happened is not only in HSG,
02:43but also in a number of other exchanges.
02:46We see in the ASEAN exchange, even the exchange in Australia or the exchange in Europe experienced the same pressure.
02:53Indeed, in Indonesia, it's a bit different.
02:56I see this as one of the effects of the new pre-opening implementation.
03:04The new pre-opening has now been released to almost all exchanges.
03:09So if we look at the opening, many exchanges outside of LQ45 then did a gap down.
03:16Indeed, if we look at the decline, some BKEPS exchanges experienced a significant decline of around 1% to 2%.
03:25But if we look at the weighting, there are exchanges that have quite large weights in HSG,
03:32but outside of LQ45, which fell more than 2%, even almost 4%.
03:38For example, such as Brand, BRPT, then there is also PANI.
03:42That's quite a big weight in HSG.
03:44And that's what I think made HSG fall quite deep today.
03:51And actually if we ignore that,
03:55in HSG, if we look at the composition of BKEPS, such as Berbankan, Telkom, Astra,
04:02on average, it fell around 1% to 2%.
04:07That may be a bad effect.
04:09Okay, let's move on to Indekargasam-Kabungan, Mr. Wafi.
04:12With the weakening that happened,
04:15is the interest rate of Indoreasing and Sontarelli getting lower?
04:19What is your analysis like?
04:21Yes, at the moment, I see that there is still a potential for correction for HSG.
04:29However, this is a bit balanced.
04:32On the one hand, if we look at some of the BKEPS stocks, such as Berbankan,
04:37then Telekomunikasi, then Astra,
04:40those are stocks that are BKEPS with good fundamentals.
04:43In terms of valuation, it's actually quite cheap.
04:45It can be said that it's actually very cheap.
04:47So, from the decline potential, it's quite limited at the moment.
04:52And if we focus on that, there is actually a rebound potential.
04:55But on the other hand, there are also other stocks,
04:58stocks that do have quite a lot of weight,
05:01but the valuation is also quite high, quite expensive too.
05:05And those stocks seem to still be able to burden the movement of IHSG in the future.
05:11Even though, if we look at whether there is a rebound potential from those stocks
05:15with a fairly expensive valuation,
05:17yes, the rebound potential is still open.
05:19However, if you ask whether there is a rebound potential from those stocks,
05:24it cannot yet be explained from a fundamental point of view.
05:28Okay, at 6-9 o'clock, is there another target revision, sir, for the target until the end of the year?
05:35Yes, for the end of the year, we talk realistically
05:38because next weekend is also Christmas holiday.
05:42So, it seems that the target for IHSG at the end of the year
05:45will be around the level of 7,350 to 7,450.
05:50That is a fairly realistic level for now at the end of the year.
05:56Okay, let's move on to sectoral movements, especially from some stocks.
06:00You also mentioned earlier that the PICAP bank still has quite significant sales.
06:07Let's try to analyze, sir, for some PICAP banks that have had a deep enough correction.
06:12Let's go straight to BBRI, Mr. Wafi.
06:15And coincidentally, there are already questions on our interactive WhatsApp.
06:18Mr. Kas Mudin from Medan, thank you for joining us.
06:21Where will the BBRI stock go?
06:23Any analysis for BBRI?
06:26Yes, for the BBRI stock, actually at the current level at 4,090,
06:31in my notes, it has entered the bottom level.
06:35This is the lowest level in June.
06:37It's also around level 4,100.
06:39So below that, it has entered the oversold area.
06:43And if you look at the BBRI with a price position like this at 4,090,
06:48plus the valuation that is already very cheap,
06:52this is minus two standard deviations, the price-to-need ratio and the price-to-book value.
06:57This is really worth accumulating.
07:00However, it seems that there is still pressure from foreign stock.
07:04So I see there is still a level of support for BBRI at around level 3,980.
07:13The closest resistance level is around level 4,300.
07:19There is still potential for rebound and even a chance for a breakout of 4,300.
07:23Because of the two factors, the first from the valuation side is quite cheap,
07:26the second is there is also a push from dividends.
07:28Moving on to BMRI, sir.
07:30Today, the deepest correction was actually a place that weakened above 3%,
07:35but the weakening has now begun to be limited to 2.58%.
07:39What is the situation for BMRI?
07:41For BMRI, actually from a technical point of view,
07:44if we look at it in general, it's quite interesting.
07:46Where if we look at the intraday chart, it has actually recovered.
07:49So it has experienced an increase from the intraday chart.
07:52And with some indicators, especially the leading one,
07:55it has entered the oversold area.
07:57I see there is actually a rebound potential from the independent bank.
08:01The current level is at 5,675.
08:03The closest support level is at level 5,500.
08:08While for the closest resistance level, it is at level 5,950.
08:14The next one is at around level 6,100.
08:16Okay, before we continue, Mr. Wafi,
08:18what is your recommendation for Samsung B-Cap Bank?
08:22Are the recommendations almost the same?
08:24Or is there still room for weakness?
08:28So that investors are more likely to go to YRNC first.
08:32Yes, indeed for Samsung B-Cap,
08:34which is fundamentally good,
08:37it means that the current levels are quite interesting
08:40if investors want to start considering
08:44starting to invest in Samsung.
08:46However, in terms of timing,
08:48I recommend being more selective among the four banks.
08:51As we all know, two of the four big banks
08:54have issues that are quite negative.
08:57Even though it is a limited issue,
08:59but it adds a negative catalyst to the stock price movement.
09:03So, in terms of timing, it can be followed up again.
09:07Okay, analysis from several Samsung B-Cap banks
09:10which again today became a burden for the Samsung family.
09:14Mr. Wafi, let's pause for a moment.
09:16Later, we will see what options are still recommended
09:19in today's discussion.
09:22We will be back in a moment.