IHSG +0,26% ke 6.995,156 di sesi I Jumat (20/12). IDX Sektor Properti dan Real Estate + 0,45%. IDX Energi +0,38%, IDX Sektor Teknologi +0,34%. IDX Sektor Perindustrian -0,64%. IDX Sektor Kesehatan -0,56%. Penguatan IHSG seiring dengan indeks LQ45 yang +0,43% di 821,92, dengan saham AMMN +3,91%.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street Kamis, memangkas penguatan setelah The Fed perkirakan pemotongan suku bunga lebih sedikit dari ekspektasi di 2025.
Dari global, Bursa ekuitas Wall Street Kamis, memangkas penguatan setelah The Fed perkirakan pemotongan suku bunga lebih sedikit dari ekspektasi di 2025.
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TVTranscript
00:00Thank you for joining us in this segment, we will review how the trade is going throughout the day.
00:12After the weekend, we still invite you to participate in the interactive WhatsApp
00:16at 0812.8788.723, as shown on your television screen.
00:23Today, we are joined by Mr. Octavianus Audi, the Vice President of PTQM Indonesia.
00:30Mr. Audi, good afternoon. How are you?
00:36Good afternoon, Mr. David. How are you? Thank you.
00:38Thank you, Mr. Audi, for taking the time to be on IDX Channel.
00:41We have arrived at Jelang Liburan trading in the weekend.
00:44Before we review the technical aspects of today's trading,
00:48we will try to review what was the latest movement in Kargasam and Kampungan in the past week
00:53that was under pressure, Mr. Audi?
00:58Yes, if we look at the long streak of 6 consecutive days in the NSG,
01:04if we look at the elaboration further, the sentiment is that
01:08when FOMC, which is a projection of the Fed for next year,
01:14the narration is still the same and the sentiment is more conservative,
01:18where they actually predict that this inflation will be sustained at a high level.
01:24And this is a fairly negative response by the market,
01:27both in the United States and Indonesia,
01:30which seems to be slower in relation to the policy or the relationship.
01:36And what we are concerned about is the impact on the NSG.
01:40The outflow still happens.
01:43As with the investment, the shifting investment that may occur,
01:47plus the possibility that the Bank of Indonesia will ignore the policy
01:50and maintain it at a fairly high level.
01:55So we do see that this is more of a sentiment.
01:58Okay. Especially for today, Mr. Audi, it's still fluctuating,
02:02even though the tendency to strengthen and the Kargasam-Kampungan index
02:06is still quite dominant, moving at around 6,900.
02:12Yes, so actually if we look at it technically,
02:15it is possible that in terms of volume of transactions,
02:18we see that this is more of a technical rebound.
02:20So this can be used first, maybe for the short term.
02:25Because indeed the psychological level is quite strong for the current ISG at 7,000.
02:29Hopefully this can be a fairly strong hold.
02:32So we still see there is an indication of strengthening or rebound.
02:37At least until the end of the year 2024,
02:43the resistance that can be achieved is maybe at the level of 7,150.
02:47And the support level in the short term is at 6,900.
02:52Okay, how do you see the position of the current investors
02:56who still wait for the US PCI inflation data?
03:00If I'm not mistaken, it will be released on Friday night.
03:04And the direction for trading next week,
03:07where in the rest of the trading in 2024,
03:10the trading activities are also not full
03:12because some are also taking a vacation together.
03:15Mr. Audi?
03:16Yes, yes, yes.
03:17So we feel that this is already a price in.
03:19With six consecutive days, our ISG dropped significantly.
03:25And indeed this concern is related to the PCI earlier.
03:28Elaborated further, the view of Fed is still the same.
03:32Earlier, when the FOMC was completed,
03:34the economic projection for the US is expected to be more stagnant.
03:38And even for Indonesia, we are experiencing the same thing.
03:41So indeed this is the hope,
03:43investors have already priced in,
03:46and the possibility is only for technical rebound.
03:48Okay, earlier you targeted the joint index,
03:51until the end of the year, around 7,150,
03:54then also at 7,200.
03:57This position,
03:59the revision is nothing compared to the target
04:02that has been set previously by the Security Council.
04:06Yes, we did a little revision,
04:10where indeed the target until mid-year,
04:14before there is a change of view.
04:18Exactly, if we look at it,
04:21when Donald Trump was elected,
04:23this did change the situation a little.
04:25And indeed,
04:26previously we targeted 7,500 to 7,700 this year,
04:29but we did a little revision,
04:32until this year at 7,150 to 7,250.
04:36So indeed the range is slightly reduced
04:38compared to the previous projection.
04:40Opportunity for Windowdracing and Santarelli
04:43with a few trading days ahead in 2024?
04:47Yes, for now there will be a slight tendency.
04:51Although our estimation is that
04:53ESG in December still has the potential to green,
04:56even if it is closed in December.
04:58But indeed for the chance to be significant,
05:02we think this will be a little more minimal.
05:04Because compared to previous years,
05:07this year is a little different.
05:08Monetary policy regulations, then uncertainty,
05:11and plus the choice of several leaders of countries,
05:14including Indonesia.
05:15So this will be elaborated a little further
05:17by the market for the future.
05:20Okay, let's move on to the sector side, sir,
05:23and also the movement of several stocks.
05:25Again, I want to go to the banks first.
05:27Today, the banks seem to follow
05:30the flow of the movement of the joint stock market.
05:33Fluctuating.
05:34Four major banks today are also fluctuating.
05:36What can be described in this position, sir,
05:39when the banks in the first session
05:41were able to increase significantly,
05:43then a deep correction,
05:45entering the second session, strengthening again.
05:47However, in a few minutes during today's closing,
05:49the strengthening is again limited, Mr. Audi.
05:53Yes, indeed, if we look at it,
05:55the market is more inclined to take advantage
05:58of the position that has been declining for six days.
06:01But we still haven't seen any indication of a trend change.
06:05So this is still concerned,
06:07it will be more speculative.
06:10So maybe investors can also pay attention.
06:13But what is of concern right now
06:15is why more is being thrown away,
06:17or in quotation marks,
06:19let go, especially by foreigners.
06:21We saw a few days ago,
06:23it was quite harsh for foreigners to leave the banks.
06:26Indeed, the concern is related to the cost of funds.
06:28Indeed, if the Indonesian Bank does not decrease its flow,
06:32or in accordance with the FFR,
06:34or in accordance with the FED in the future,
06:36which is only twice the flow rate,
06:38this becomes a concern.
06:39The impact is the growth of credit,
06:41or the demand for credit, which will gradually weaken.
06:44And in the end, the purchasing power that is concerned
06:47is getting weaker.
06:48So this has been predicted before.
06:53And this is directly responded to quite negatively by the market.
06:56Okay.
06:57From some of these big cap banks,
07:01Mr. Audi, how do you see the direction until the end of the year?
07:05Then your projection too,
07:06combine it with the fundamentals,
07:08their performance in the fourth quarter,
07:10and later in the full year,
07:11will this also be a picture for the direction of movement in 2025?
07:16Yes.
07:17So if we look at it from the banking side,
07:19this is still quite strong,
07:21compared to quite strong.
07:22Indeed, we see there is BBCA,
07:25which is indeed one of those
07:27that is expected to be a supporter,
07:29and also independent.
07:31Because if we look at the growth of credit,
07:33BCA is still a double digit.
07:36So this can be a proof
07:38that the growth is still quite strong,
07:41the growth is quite strong,
07:42just now from BBCA itself.
07:44So we are still hoping,
07:45and indeed, if we look at the trend,
07:47there is a potential for a technical rebound.
07:50Yes, maybe it won't be too significant.
07:523-4%, we estimate there is still a potential
07:55until the end of this year.
07:57So that's what is expected to be able to support our ESG,
08:00to be able to rebound.
08:02Today's closing at 9.650, sir.
08:05The recommendation for BBCA until the end of the year.
08:08Support and resistance.
08:09Is there a chance to rebound above Rp10,000?
08:13Yes, for resistance, it is exactly at Rp10,000.
08:16We see this is the first psychological level,
08:18then the second is moving average 200 days,
08:20so there are two resistances here.
08:22We target indeed until the end of the year,
08:24the target is up to Rp10,000.
08:26For the level of support that must be maintained,
08:28right now it is at Rp9,500.
08:30So BBCA is estimated at Rp9,500
08:34up to Rp10,000 until the end of 2024.
08:37Besides BBCA, you also recommended BMRI, sir.
08:40Today, the movement is also quite interesting,
08:43although it was also fluctuating.
08:45Yesterday's traders, BMRI,
08:47actually experienced the deepest pressure
08:49compared to other big cap banks.
08:51Today it looks like it's closed flat, sir.
08:535-6-7-5.
08:54Intraday today was up to 5-7-50.
08:57Analysis and recommendations for BMRI.
09:00Yes, for resistance, actually this is already a confirmation.
09:02We did see yesterday that the level of support
09:05is still maintained at Rp5,600.
09:07So we can say that the psychological support
09:10for now is Rp5,600.
09:12With the potential for technical rebound
09:15or short-term speculation,
09:17the target is currently up to Rp6,150.
09:20The support that must be maintained
09:22is to be careful if the trend changes can occur,
09:25it is confirmed if it falls below Rp5,450.
09:30Both big cap banks, there is BBCA or BMRI
09:33that is more recommended.
09:35Let's move on to other banks.
09:38Mr. Audi, not included in the big cap bank,
09:41there is BRIS, sir.
09:42Today, in the midst of the fluctuation
09:44of the movement of joint stock prices,
09:46BRIS today is quite significant.
09:494.17% in Rp2,750.
09:52And coincidentally, there is a question that came in,
09:54there is Mr. Inder from Bali,
09:56who just wants to enter this brand stock.
09:59BRIS, I mean.
10:00Is it recommended or not?
10:02And what is the entry level for BRIS?
10:05Yes, BRIS is quite interesting.
10:07If we look at it clinically,
10:08there is a moving average of 200 days,
10:10so today it is confirmed.
10:11It means that it is still tanking
10:12and can rebound again.
10:14We think this is quite interesting.
10:15The entry level can be at the level of Rp2,730
10:20up to Rp2,770.
10:23This is still quite enough.
10:25With the closest resistance, R1 is Rp3,030.
10:28Next, if it breaks out, up to Rp3,300.
10:31Be careful.
10:33If BRIS actually falls below Rp2,550.
10:37This is a very open potential to continue weakening.
10:41Okay.
10:42Is it supported from the volume side or not for BRIS?
10:46Yes.
10:47If we look at the last few days,
10:49for today it has broken the average of 20 days,
10:52so today there is already an indication.
10:54Although it is not very significant,
10:56but if compared to the last 20 days,
10:58this is starting to be quite strong.
11:01But it does need spikes,
11:03spikes of volume that should be above 1x.
11:06For now, it is still within the range of 1x
11:09the last 20 days,
11:10so it is still quite maintained.
11:13Okay.
11:14BRIS is closed at Rp2,750,
11:16strengthening at 4.17%.
11:18Review and recommendations from Big Cap Banking
11:20and there is also BRIS that today is also
11:22fast-paced in the midst of a fluctuation in the price index
11:24of household stocks.
11:25Mr. Audi, we will break the news first,
11:27later we will try to see what Samsung plans are recommended
11:30and at the same time,
11:31the closing update of the trading session on the second session today.
11:34And we will be right back in a moment.