日経サタデー ニュースの疑問 2024年12月21日 トランプ相場は続く？ 25年株価と為替大展望
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00:00Good morning.
00:13This is the News Question for December 21st.
00:17Let me introduce today's guests.
00:21This is Joseph Kraft, economic policy analyst.
00:24Good morning.
00:25Good morning.
00:26This is Mr. Emin Yilmaz, economist.
00:29Good morning.
00:30Good morning.
00:31This is Yasuhide Yajima, chief economist at Nissei Institute of Basic Research.
00:36Good morning.
00:37Good morning.
00:38Today, I'm here with these three guests.
00:42Now, let's take a look at today's topic.
00:46Mr. Yamagawa, today's topic is selling and buying in the Trump administration.
00:55Yes.
00:56Next week, I expect to host another program next year.
01:01So, I'd like to look ahead to next year as soon as possible.
01:05I'd like to look ahead to various things,
01:08especially in terms of market relations,
01:11but also in terms of the world's situation and policy.
01:14The catchphrase is below.
01:16Tatsumi Tenjo.
01:17I don't think you can tell unless you're an old person,
01:19but it's Tatsumi Tenjo.
01:21Well, next year is midoshi.
01:23Tatsumi Tenjo tends to reach its peak.
01:27In the past, it was during the IT bubble.
01:33I'm not sure if that will be the case this time.
01:38Before we talk about that,
01:41I'd like to talk about Nissan and Honda cars.
01:45I'm considering whether or not to merge them.
01:49What will happen?
01:51Mr. Kraft, are you watching this?
01:53Yes.
01:54After this news came out, Honda's share price fell,
01:57and Nissan's share price rose significantly.
02:00I think this will affect the evaluation.
02:04But on the other hand,
02:06I'm not sure if companies with completely different cultures
02:10will be able to merge and do well in the future.
02:14And there's the Taiwan Honhai and Renault involved.
02:20I think there will be 1, 2, or 3 companies merging.
02:24I think this will be a theme for next year.
02:27I think there will be a lot of M&A coming up.
02:32When you look at the stock market,
02:36I think it's close to the rescue of Nissan.
02:40I don't know if Honda will be able to take that risk.
02:43But the Honhai that Mr. Kraft mentioned
02:46is thinking about selling Nissan.
02:49So Honda has to move in opposition to that.
02:53It's pushing back.
02:55Renault has Nissan's stock.
02:58I'm thinking about where to release this stock.
03:01I'm thinking about that as a player.
03:04I understand.
03:06After the commercial,
03:08let's take a look at the stock price and the exchange rate.
03:12Japan Co., Ltd.
03:15Ready!
03:23The stock price of Japan Co., Ltd. in 2024 was said to be
03:27as big as it could be imagined.
03:33A little more!
03:36Come on, come on!
03:38Come on, come on!
03:40The highest price in history!
03:45The stock price of Japan Co., Ltd.
03:48was the highest in the bubble period in February 1989.
03:57After that, it was over 40,000 yen.
04:00On July 11, it was 42,224 yen at the end.
04:05For the first time, it was listed at a large price of 42,000 yen.
04:10But on August 5th...
04:14The stock price of Japan Co., Ltd.
04:16fell by one level in the afternoon.
04:18The daily drop was over 4,000 yen, the largest in history.
04:22In 1987, the stock price of Japan Co., Ltd.
04:25fell by 30,458 yen at the end of the day,
04:28the day after Black Monday.
04:33After that, the stock price of Japan Co., Ltd.
04:35recovered, and in October,
04:37the stock price of Japan Co., Ltd.
04:39did not fall by more than half,
04:41but it fell by about 38,000 yen.
04:50On the other hand, looking back at the exchange rate,
04:53the initial price was in the first half of the $1.40 range,
04:57but at the end of June,
04:59the price dropped to 560 yen,
05:02and the government intervened in the exchange rate.
05:09This week, the U.S. F.R.B. decided to lower the price,
05:13but in 2025, it showed a high-level attitude
05:17to slow down the pace of the price.
05:21On the other hand, Japan Co., Ltd.
05:24Japan Co., Ltd.
05:26also showed a cautious and aggressive attitude
05:28in the future.
05:30At the moment, the U.S. F.R.B.
05:32is on the side of not lowering the price,
05:34but there is a possibility that it will move
05:36to a low price of over 160 yen again.
05:41What will happen to the market in 2025?
05:49The biggest impact will be
05:51the Trump administration,
05:53which will take office in January next year.
05:58It said that China would pay
06:00an additional 10% of its import tax
06:03to almost all imports.
06:07It also posted on social media
06:09that it would sign a presidential decree
06:11that would pay 25% of its import tax
06:13to Mexico and Canada on the first day of their inauguration.
06:18Trump's administration
06:20is being criticized for its negative aspects,
06:22such as the concern over inflation due to the inflationary increase,
06:28while the positive aspects,
06:30such as regulations and taxes,
06:32are being exchanged in the market.
06:36What will happen to the Trump administration in 2025?
06:41Thank you very much.
06:43Also, what impact will the intellectual property risk
06:46have on the market?
06:50Ukraine's progress is uncertain.
06:54In Syria, the Assad regime has collapsed,
06:57and the Middle East situation
06:59is being further destabilized.
07:05In East Asia,
07:07concerns about the Taiwan issue are growing.
07:11What risks should the market be wary of?
07:17This week, the last FOMC
07:19and the Japanese financial policy meeting
07:21was held in 2024.
07:23First, let's look back at 2024.
07:26The first topic is,
07:28how far is the yen going to go?
07:30First, let's look at the daily average value of the yen in 2024.
07:34It started with a new move.
07:36On February 22,
07:38the yen rose to its highest level in 34 years.
07:41In July,
07:43the highest level this year was 42,224 yen.
07:47However, due to the increase in daily yen
07:49and the U.S. effort to change the economy,
07:51sales skyrocketed.
07:53On August 5,
07:55sales exceeded 4,400 yen,
07:57the largest decrease in the past.
07:59Since then,
08:01it has fallen from 38,000 yen to 9,000 yen.
08:04This year,
08:06the average share price rose by about 16%.
08:09In January,
08:11the New York Dow Jones rose over 38,000 dollars,
08:13the highest level.
08:15In May,
08:17it rose over 40,000 dollars.
08:19In November,
08:21Trump won the presidential election.
08:23On December 5,
08:25the highest level was 45,014 dollars.
08:27However,
08:29at the end of the year,
08:31it recorded a decline for the first time in 50 years.
08:33This year,
08:35the New York Dow Jones rose by about 14%.
08:37There were a lot of things,
08:39but in comparison with the beginning of the year,
08:41the New York Dow Jones and the Japanese yen
08:43are almost the same.
08:45It's a 14% and 16% increase.
08:47First,
08:49Mr. Yurumazu,
08:51what do you think about this year?
08:53Regarding the Japanese yen,
08:55as you said,
08:57if the Japanese yen and the Japanese yen
08:59are the same,
09:01it means that there is no GAFAM in it,
09:03and there is no high-tech in it.
09:05That's how it is.
09:07For NASDAQ and S&P,
09:09it's more expensive.
09:11It's already more than 26%.
09:13That's why
09:15the Japanese yen is not enough.
09:17There is no exposure
09:19to so-called AI
09:21or software.
09:23Unfortunately,
09:25if there is no exposure,
09:27I think this is probably the ability.
09:29I think
09:31it's a good thing.
09:33It's almost the same as the Dow.
09:35It's a little better than the Dow.
09:37Mr. Iwajima, what do you think?
09:39This year,
09:41there were two big events in Japan.
09:43One of them was
09:45that the exchange rate
09:47for the Japanese yen in July
09:49was very low.
09:51In the end,
09:53it came back,
09:55so it was good.
09:57However,
09:59while everyone was expecting
10:01the exchange rate to go down,
10:03the exchange rate went up
10:05to 160 yen,
10:07and it's getting closer.
10:09I think these were
10:11the two big events this year.
10:13Let's take a look
10:15at the exchange rate.
10:17Yes.
10:19It started in the second half
10:21of the 140-yen range
10:23in 2024.
10:25At the beginning of the year,
10:27in March,
10:29the Japanese yen released
10:31a negative interest rate.
10:33However,
10:35the interest rate difference
10:37between Japan and the U.S.
10:39remained large,
10:41and the exchange rate
10:43went up.
10:45On April 29,
10:47the Japanese yen
10:49went up by
10:511.1 trillion yen,
10:53but the exchange rate
10:55dropped to 1.95 trillion yen.
10:57After that,
10:59Japan's foreign exchange
11:01and Japanese yen
11:03increased.
11:05Since September,
11:07the U.S. economy
11:09has improved
11:11and the exchange rate
11:13has gone down again.
11:15At the end of the 20th,
11:17the exchange rate
11:19went up by
11:211.56 trillion yen.
11:23In that sense,
11:25the yen price
11:27has been low,
11:29but the yen price
11:31has been low.
11:33In that sense,
11:35the yen price
11:37has been low.
11:39There are people
11:41who say it's good
11:43for the company's revenue,
11:45and there are people
11:47who say it's not good
11:49for the Japanese economy.
11:51When I think about
11:53what's going on now,
11:55I think that
11:57whether Japan can
11:59stop the yen price
12:01or not will be
12:03a big point
12:05for this year.
12:07Mr. Kraft,
12:09you saw the stock market
12:11and the exchange rate,
12:13but how do you look back
12:15on this year?
12:17I had the impression
12:19that the government
12:21had been trying
12:23to intervene
12:25against the yen price
12:27until now,
12:29but now that the
12:31Treasury Department
12:33has changed,
12:35the U.S. Treasury Department
12:37has changed,
12:39and the Japanese government
12:41has changed,
12:43I wonder if
12:45we can show
12:47that the Japanese government
12:49is trying to intervene
12:51against the yen price
12:53or not.
12:55And another thing,
12:57when I went to the
12:59160 yen market last year,
13:01the yen price
13:03went up
13:05because of
13:07the long-term
13:09yen sales.
13:11Now,
13:13the long-term yen sales
13:15are still there,
13:17and the FOMC
13:19has a high price,
13:21and the Japanese
13:23has a low price.
13:25If we can show
13:27that, I think
13:29we can try
13:31the 162 yen market
13:33at once.
13:35There is talk
13:37that Japan
13:39will move
13:41at the end of the year
13:43to the 150 yen market.
13:45What do you think about that?
13:47I think Japan
13:49is actually
13:51trying to
13:53cut back on the yen.
13:55In other words,
13:57we have changed
13:59the standard
14:01from 110 yen
14:03to 150 yen
14:05over the past two years.
14:07If you think
14:09that 150 yen
14:11is a lot of money,
14:13it looks like
14:15it's a big move,
14:17but if you start
14:19at 150 yen,
14:21it's about 10 yen.
14:23I don't think
14:25that kind of move
14:27is that dangerous
14:29for Japan's
14:31daily income
14:33and assets.
14:35But if it goes over
14:37160 yen,
14:39the FRB will
14:41cut back on the yen
14:43three times in a row,
14:45and the Japanese yen
14:47three times in a row.
14:49And as Chairman Powell
14:51said,
14:53if the trend
14:55is unclear,
14:57it's common sense
14:59to move slowly.
15:01In terms of
15:03cutting back on the yen,
15:05it looks like
15:07it's a big move.
15:09On the other hand,
15:11Chairman Ueda
15:13said that
15:15he wants
15:17one more step
15:19to cut back on the yen.
15:21I thought
15:23he was going to
15:25say something
15:27like that
15:29in January,
15:31but I was wrong.
15:33After his statement,
15:35Chairman Powell said
15:37that he wanted
15:39one more step
15:41to cut back on the yen
15:43three times in a row.
15:45What do you think, Mr. Kraft?
15:47Yes, it's important
15:49to compare it
15:51with the forecast
15:53of the market.
15:55Of course,
15:57the FOMC said
15:59that the pace of
16:01cutting back
16:03on the yen
16:05will increase
16:07in December
16:09and January.
16:11On the other hand,
16:13Chairman Ueda said
16:15that it may
16:17shift to
16:19March or April.
16:21He also said
16:23that he was not
16:25worried about
16:27the yen price
16:29and that
16:31he was not worried
16:33about the yen price
16:35at all.
16:45Mr. Iwajima,
16:47what did you think
16:49of Japan and the U.S. this week?
16:51I think it would have been
16:53good if the Japanese banks
16:55were active,
16:57but I was afraid
16:59that the U.S. would
17:01do the same thing.
17:03I don't know what would happen
17:05if the U.S. and the U.S.
17:07did the same thing.
17:09However, I think that
17:11the January meeting
17:13in Japan
17:15will be very important
17:17from now on.
17:19I think that
17:21if the Japanese banks
17:23are more active
17:25in January,
17:27the U.S. will be more active
17:29in January.
17:35Mr. Iwajima,
17:37what do you think?
17:39To be honest,
17:41I think it would have been
17:43better to do it in December,
17:45but if we missed January,
17:47I think that
17:49we would not be able
17:51to do it in January.
17:53Mr. Yurumatsu,
17:55what do you think?
17:57I think that
17:59Japan will do
18:01the Japanese yen
18:03next year.
18:05I think that
18:07Japan didn't want
18:09to use
18:11one of the two times
18:13throughout the year.
18:15I think that
18:17Japan didn't want
18:19to use
18:21one of the two times
18:23throughout the year.
18:25I think that
18:27we may have to do it
18:29at least once.
18:31I think that
18:33that would weaken
18:35the U.S. economy.
18:37That's right,
18:39and the economy is also
18:41inflated.
18:43I think that there is
18:45a risk
18:47of stagnation in the U.S.
18:49Mr. Craft,
18:51As Mr. Iwajima said, January is a big point, and I don't think the FOMC will raise interest rates.
18:58Then the focus will be on Japanese silver.
19:02If we miss January, we won't be able to negotiate until March.
19:07As a market, one direction will be shown, so we should rather move to January.
19:16Mr. Iwajima said he wanted more data on Japanese silver.
19:21Then we should wait until March.
19:25If we move to January, the market will be confused about what he said at the press conference.
19:36It will be a conference with little consistency.
19:41I often hear from foreign investors what Mr. Ueda wants to do with Japanese silver.
19:46They say they don't know what they want to do because they are biased.
19:54How many times have you seen the U.S.?
19:56I think at least twice.
19:59Mr. Iwajima, what do you think?
20:01I think it's twice.
20:03I think we should be more aware of the risk of not being able to lower interest rates.
20:08So all three of you are looking at not being able to lower interest rates.
20:13Yes.
20:14I understand.
20:15After the press conference, we will consider the focus of the next year's market.
20:19Let's take a look at the next year's market.
20:38Let's take a look at the next year's market.
20:43Let's take a look at the next year's market.
21:13Let's take a look at the next year's market.
21:28Let's take a look at the next year's market.
21:48Let's take a look at the next year's market.
22:16Certainly, the number of exercises has increased recently.
22:20Mr. Irumatsu, where are you paying attention?
22:22This is the German election.
22:24Just yesterday, Mr. Elon Musk said that it is the AfD that can save Germany.
22:32The extreme right.
22:33Yes, the extreme right.
22:35That's why Germany is in a lot of trouble right now.
22:38Germany is likely to be involved in various things in the German election.
22:44There is a possibility that Germany will be in a lot of trouble.
22:48This year, the election year was tough.
22:53What will happen to this general election in Germany?
22:56The so-called anti-immigrant sentiment has calmed down once due to COVID-19.
23:03The fact that Mr. Trump won is a bit of a tailwind for the right-wing in the world.
23:10What does that mean for Germany?
23:14If the extreme right forces Germany and Germany leaves the EU like Brexit,
23:20history will move.
23:22It's going to be a big deal.
23:24Mr. Iyajima, what do you think?
23:26It's a three-man game in Japan.
23:29I'm paying attention to two things.
23:32As I said before, most of the G7 countries have been crushed by the government.
23:37In that sense, if you twist it in this three-man game, it will be the end of the time.
23:41In the sense of such an important election,
23:43I think the next three-man game is very important in terms of changing the shape of politics.
23:47Another thing is that various policies around the income environment are moving in Japan.
23:53If you look at it like that, it's starting to look like a three-man game,
23:58aiming to win or lose.
24:02I think it's going to be a situation where Japan's politics will move again,
24:06including the number of supporters.
24:09In particular, foreign investors pay attention to the stability of politics.
24:15Let's take a look at the world map to see what kind of risks and movements there are.
24:22What are the political risks?
24:25First of all, Europe, including Germany and France,
24:28The political situation in the central European countries is unstable.
24:32And Ukraine's invasion of Russia will come to an end in February next year.
24:37And if you look at the Middle East,
24:40Israel's Gaza invasion has been reported to be close to a ceasefire,
24:44but no official announcement has been made.
24:47The deadline for a stable government is until March next year.
24:50The focus is on whether Syria will be stable or not.
24:54And Asia.
24:56China is concerned about the long-term economic downturn,
24:59and what will happen to Taiwan's maintenance after Trump's return.
25:02In the South China Sea, it is also concerned that there will be no sudden clashes with the Philippines.
25:08In addition to the threat of North Korea,
25:11South Korea's President Yun is in the midst of suspension of his duties, and it is unclear where to go.
25:16Japan also has a small number of fishermen, and strict national administration continues.
25:21And America.
25:23America is concerned about the acceleration of inflation by Trump's inauguration.
25:27There is also talk of tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
25:31It is also important to see if Trump will really impose tariffs or if some kind of deal will be made.
25:38Mr. Kraft, you mentioned Taiwan friendship earlier.
25:41What else are you concerned about?
25:43Yes, the Trump administration is the most noteworthy.
25:48In the past three days, the government has been closed.
25:53Today, we were able to avoid it at the last minute.
25:57This is what we call a shock.
26:01This is exactly what we will see in the Trump Theater next year.
26:08Elon Musk will intervene.
26:11The U.S. Congress will make one point, two points, three points.
26:14There will be a lot of unclear movements.
26:18I think this will be one of the highlights of the U.S. administration next year.
26:24I think it will be a year in which a lot of things happen in an unpredictable administration.
26:32And I think it will be a year in which the stock market and the financial market will go up at once.
26:40Now that Mr. Trump is out, let's talk about his economic policy.
26:45What kind of policy will President Trump make when he is inaugurated?
26:50First, about tariffs.
26:52As has already been announced,
26:5410% more tariffs will be imposed on China and 25% on Canada and Mexico,
26:59which are part of the U.S.M.C.A.
27:03In addition, the EU and the European Union are warned that
27:07if they do not buy a large amount of oil and gas from the United States,
27:10they will impose tariffs on EU products.
27:13This is the news that came out recently.
27:15And about energy production,
27:17the expansion of shale oil and natural gas production,
27:20and the abolition of tax cuts for renewable energy are being considered.
27:25And about tariffs,
27:2715% of companies in the U.S. that manufacture products are subject to tariffs.
27:34Tariffs on individual income tax will be made more expensive.
27:38And about environmental issues,
27:40the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the abolition of regulations on fuel development are being considered.
27:46And finally, about immigration,
27:48the decrease in illegal immigrants also raises concerns about the lack of workers.
27:53Mr. Yurumatsu, what do you think will happen in Trump City?
27:57Mr. Trump is a bazaar merchant.
28:01What?
28:02He is a bazaar merchant.
28:04My family was very close to the Grand Bazaar.
28:08There are a lot of people like this.
28:10For example, if there is something for 7,000 yen,
28:13I used to go shopping with my mother.
28:16First, the seller says it's 12,000 yen.
28:19My mother says it's 2,000 yen.
28:21As we negotiate like this,
28:23it is decided at a price close to the person who is good at negotiating.
28:27If the other person is good, it will be 7,500 yen.
28:30If my mother buys one, it will be 6,500 yen.
28:33That's why he's going to start from the top.
28:36On the other hand, you don't have to refuse,
28:39but you have to negotiate.
28:41However, Japan is not very good at negotiating.
28:44I know because I used to play M&A,
28:46but Japanese people don't like negotiations.
28:48But I think it would be good to take a person like Osaka's mother with you.
28:54To negotiate with Trump.
28:55It's like going to see Prime Minister Ishiba right away.
28:58If you say 10%, it's 5%.
29:02If you don't do that, it's difficult to negotiate with Trump.
29:07Mr. Yajima, what will happen depending on Trump's policy?
29:11First of all, most of the news will be American news next year.
29:16There have been a lot of European news in the past year or two,
29:20but I think the content of the news will definitely change next year.
29:24When I look at the Trump administration,
29:27the way people think is a little different.
29:30In the end, Trump will do what he wants to do until he destroys the economy.
29:34I think it's very important to look at the fact that the economy won't be destroyed,
29:38and that America will win if we negotiate well.
29:43In that sense, there will be a lot of predictions in the first half of next year.
29:47Depending on that, there will be scenarios of whether the stock price will rise or fall.
29:52I think January, February, and March will be really big news.
29:57Even though the situation is quite different,
30:00let's review what the market was like in the first Trump administration.
30:04When it comes to stocks, New York Dow Jones is 56% up in popularity.
30:11And what about the exchange rate?
30:17In this case, the Trump administration was a little higher in the dollar.
30:25Let's also look at the stock price.
30:28In terms of the stock price, even though the COVID-19 pandemic was a big deal,
30:34it didn't actually cause inflation.
30:39The fact that the Biden administration caused inflation
30:42is probably due to the Trump administration.
30:47But in fact, it didn't cause much inflation.
30:51I don't know if this will be helpful,
30:54but Mr. Kraft, what do you think about the Trump administration causing inflation?
30:58And what about the stock price?
31:02First of all, if you look at the Trump administration,
31:07you can see that they are trying to implement these policies seriously.
31:16In the end, whether they can do it or not is another story.
31:19The fact that the Trump administration has people who are loyal to Trump
31:26doesn't mean that the economy will collapse and Trump will not be perfect.
31:34You just mentioned a key economic figure.
31:37What do you mean by that?
31:40Howard Ratnick, the Secretary of the Treasury.
31:43He is a wall guy, but he is also a liberal.
31:48Usually, a wall guy is a free-trade or dollar-high candidate,
31:53but he is very ambitious about inflation.
31:58So you understand that he is trying to raise inflation?
32:02Yes, I do.
32:03What's interesting is that I heard this story from the Trump administration.
32:08Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besant also said this.
32:13If you look at the inflation chart,
32:17you can see that so far,
32:19there have been several people who have said that inflation is the cause of inflation,
32:25and they have tried to convince people not to go so far as to raise inflation,
32:32but Trump has said,
32:34no, there is no increase in inflation.
32:37That's what he said at the first meeting.
32:39So it's no use trying to convince people about inflation.
32:43If you try to convince people, it will only lead to a fight with Trump.
32:47He is saying that inflation is not the cause of inflation.
32:49Even Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besant,
32:53has said that inflation is the cause of inflation.
32:58One more thing,
33:01China's re-warning status, PNTR,
33:06was proposed last month, on November 21,
33:12as a law to expel it.
33:14If it fails, before the inauguration on January 20,
33:18the PNTR's re-warning status will be expelled,
33:23and a large amount of money will be spent on inflation from the 20th.
33:28At least, I think it's better not to take it lightly.
33:33The Secretary of the Treasury Scott Besant,
33:36is he a dollar-cheap leader?
33:39No, he is a dollar-rich man.
33:41Does that mean that Trump is not going to be that cheap?
33:47The difference between the first Trump administration and this one,
33:51is that in the first administration,
33:53the focus was on reducing trade deficit.
33:57That's why they are concerned about dollar-deficit.
34:00Of course, trade deficit is an important aspect,
34:05but in this administration, the aspect of economic security has become stronger.
34:10In this administration, the voice of dollar-deficit,
34:13or strong dollar in terms of economic security,
34:16is more profitable.
34:20So, in the end, we don't know which side Trump is going to take,
34:25but I think it's better to recognize that
34:29he is not as focused on trade deficit as the first administration.
34:33Mr. Yajima, what do you think?
34:36Mr. Kraft...
34:38Sorry, is it my turn?
34:39No, it's fine.
34:40As Mr. Kraft said,
34:42there is a concern about inflation,
34:45so the fact is that the dollar is not going to be that cheap.
34:48If that happens,
34:50another thing is that the value of assets is going to increase,
34:56so in any case,
34:57the situation in the U.S. is going to be very risky.
35:01Mr. Yajima.
35:02This time, it's important to figure out how to retain the popularity of 4 years.
35:07I think the goal that the Trump administration is trying to achieve in these 4 years
35:12will come out in the first half of next year.
35:15In fact, I think there are two things that we have to think about as a market.
35:19One is whether to live with the patience of 4 years.
35:22For example, the first point is whether the same policy will continue
35:25when the Kyoto administration continues.
35:27And the other is,
35:28as I mentioned in the previous talk,
35:31if you look at the past 8 years,
35:33GAFAM has increased its stock price a lot,
35:36so there is a part that is decided by the policy,
35:39but the strength of the U.S. economy and stocks come from certain companies,
35:43so I think it's very important to see
35:46whether that comes out in this policy.
35:49Yes.
35:50After the commercial,
35:52experts will predict what will happen to the market in 2025.
35:57Market
36:00This special feature is the outlook for the market in 2025.
36:04Until now, we have looked back at 2024,
36:06and we have looked at the points of interest and the risks,
36:09but from now on, we will talk about the third point,
36:12which is the theme of next year's attention.
36:15We have asked the guests to predict
36:18what will happen to the stock price of KABU and KAWASE EN in 2025.
36:23We have asked the guests to predict
36:26what will happen to the stock price of KABU and KAWASE EN in 2025.
36:29Let's zoom in.
36:32First, let's look at YAJIMA.
36:35Let's zoom in a little more.
36:38The average price of KABU is 36,000 to 43,000 yen.
36:43DAW is like this.
36:46And the dollar is 140 to 100.
36:48Next, let's look at YURUMAZU.
36:52The average price of KABU is 34,000 to 45,000 yen.
37:00Next, let's look at CRAFT.
37:02Can't the three of us look at it together?
37:05One by one.
37:07It's pretty close, isn't it?
37:10I don't think it's going to go up that much.
37:16It may be up to Trump.
37:20It's close to the stock price of KABU and KAWASE EN.
37:27Mr. YURUMAZU, what do you think?
37:30KABU went up a lot this year.
37:34It doesn't go up 20% or 30% every year.
37:39I think it will go up next year.
37:42It's the same with American stocks.
37:45I think Japanese stocks will go up next year
37:48If it goes well, it will go up to about 45,000 yen in the second half of next year.
37:54I think it will go up to 50,000 yen next year.
37:58As for KAWASE EN, I think it will move from 140 to 160 yen at one point.
38:05I think it's about 165 yen.
38:09You changed 150 yen to one standard in Japan.
38:14Mr. YURUMAZU, when you look at it in the long run, you've been saying that it's a Japanese stock.
38:21It doesn't change that.
38:23Are you saying that you will slow down a little next year?
38:26I think it will reach 50,000 yen next year.
38:30In 2026.
38:32But next year, I think it will calm down a little.
38:35It may hit the ceiling for a while.
38:38One more thing.
38:40As for Japanese stocks, the money supply has hit its head since April in Japan.
38:47At about the same time, Japanese stocks are also hitting the ceiling.
38:51Unless it's a plus again, I think it's going to be a little heavy.
38:58That's why the sector rotation is easier in Japan.
39:01There are still a lot of places that are easy to split, so the stock market is good.
39:05I think it's going to be a year where we're going to pick a good one.
39:10Not an index.
39:11I'd like to hear the theme of attention later.
39:14Mr. Yajima.
39:15I thought it was the same as Mr. YURUMAZU in the long run.
39:20I think the point is the exchange rate.
39:23It's not in this range.
39:26The biggest risk is that a lot of scenarios will collapse when the number of yen and yen goes down.
39:31I think it could happen in the first half of the year.
39:34I think it's a big premise that this won't go away in the second half of next year.
39:40It's the same as before.
39:42Do you think the yen and yen will go up on a daily basis?
39:47Has that changed a lot?
39:49I think it's going to be a point of attention later.
39:51Now, the manufacturing industry is mainly focused on processing.
39:54I think it's especially important to pay attention to automobiles.
39:57Even if automobiles go down, the quantity base doesn't grow much.
40:02I think it's the same for Toyota and other Japanese manufacturers.
40:06It's often reported in the U.S. that sales in the third country are starting to decline.
40:12If sales don't grow, the number of yen and yen will go up.
40:19I think the scenario is collapsing.
40:22Mr. CRAFT.
40:24What I can say with confidence is that it's going to be an unexpected development.
40:32I think there's no doubt that it's going to collapse.
40:40So, which one is the surprise risk?
40:44I think the stock price will go down.
40:48The exchange rate will be cheap.
40:51If the exchange rate is cheap, the stock price will go up.
40:56The reason is that, as Mr. Iyajima said,
41:00if the export industry exceeds 160 yen, the sales will increase.
41:06However, the profit will hardly increase.
41:10The materials to import are going up.
41:14So, even if the sales increase, the profit will not increase.
41:17So, if the exchange rate exceeds 160 yen,
41:21both export and import will not be popular.
41:25So, there will be less potential for the stock price to increase.
41:28As for the stock price,
41:30during the Trump administration, the stock price increased by 56%,
41:35so there are people who think it will go up again this time.
41:39No, at that time, the stock price was not very high.
41:44At that time, the stock price was not very high.
41:47This time, the stock price has gone up for 8 years,
41:51and the economic situation is starting to worsen.
41:56The situation is completely different.
41:59As Mr. Iyajima said earlier,
42:01it's not Trump, but some companies or industries,
42:05such as semiconductors and the IT sector,
42:08but if the situation starts to worsen,
42:11it will not affect the overall stock price at once.
42:15So, it's better to keep in mind that it's not just Trump.
42:18However, as for Japanese stocks,
42:21I think it will go up to 50,000 to 60,000 yen in the long term.
42:25In that sense, I personally think that
42:28if it goes down, it's a chance to buy at a long-term perspective.
42:34Now that you've raised the theme,
42:37I'd like you to give us a flip.
42:41Mr. Iyajima, you wrote each one.
42:44Mr. Iyajima, you wrote each one.
42:47After all, the Japanese economy is about automobiles.
42:50Looking back at this year,
42:52it was a problem in the first half of the year,
42:55and it was a problem in the first half of the year,
42:58but in the second half of the year,
43:00I think the next year will be the year that Japanese cars will sell well.
43:05I think the next year will be the year that Japanese cars will sell well.
43:08Did you mean that the focus of attention is the seeds of concern?
43:11Yes, but there are also talks about the relationship between cars,
43:15including new news,
43:17and whether cars can show their power globally.
43:20Especially since Germany is starting to weaken,
43:23I think the focus will be on what kind of relationship it will be.
43:26Mr. Yurimatsu.
43:28I think the next big theme is computing.
43:33This year, AI has been a hot topic for a long time,
43:38but this year, AI is running out of stock.
43:43So, I think the next big topic is computers.
43:50So, this theme is not about profit or loss,
43:53or whether it has an impact on the industry,
43:56but whether it has an impact on the industry.
43:59And in Trump's team,
44:02there are a lot of Silicon Valley billionaires,
44:07so it's easy to get excited about computers.
44:10What you're saying is that this year,
44:13we've been talking a lot about semiconductor markets and AI markets,
44:17but there's a little bit of the keyword, fishermen,
44:20coming in and out,
44:22and people are saying that Graham and NASDAQ are strong.
44:27That's right.
44:28So, this is actually almost a bubble,
44:31but as long as it doesn't collapse,
44:34it's going to spin around and get excited.
44:39So, since AI is out of stock,
44:43Tesla is getting excited,
44:45and since Tesla is a little bit down,
44:47another place is getting excited.
44:49So, I think it's going to spin around and get excited,
44:53and create a buzz.
44:56So, NASDAQ and S&P are more likely to rise than New York Dow.
45:01That's right.
45:02And the daily average is going to go up a little bit.
45:07That's right.
45:08So, if something happens and it collapses,
45:13like the coronavirus,
45:15then, of course, NASDAQ is more likely to fall.
45:20It's better to think that it's going to spread.
45:23So, there's that risk.
45:25But the Dow or the daily average is more of an all-day economy.
45:29NASDAQ and S&P500 are a new economy.
45:32That's the difference.
45:34Mr. Kraft, you wrote M&A.
45:36That's right.
45:37In Japan, it's 7&I this year,
45:40or the recent Honda and Nissan.
45:42In the U.S., it's Nihon Seitetsu.
45:45We're starting to see a lot of M&A in Japan and related areas.
45:51As a Japanese company,
45:54we have to grow overseas.
45:58If we don't grow through M&A,
46:01we won't be able to maintain our profits.
46:05So, the trend for M&A will continue next year.
46:10Regardless of whether or not we succeed,
46:16companies need to pursue growth through M&A.
46:24Yes.
46:25The market analysis we talked about today is just one way of thinking.
46:30Please take your own investment into account.
46:33And here's an announcement.
46:35We will be broadcasting the only part of Caster Fujii's story
46:40that will dig deeper into the topics we couldn't cover in the program
46:45next Tuesday evening.
46:47Please subscribe to Teletubbies.
46:50Our guest today is Mr. Yurumazu.
46:52Thank you for joining us.
46:54After the announcement, here's the market analysis.
47:05Our guest today is Mr. Ryohei Iwatani.
47:10He's the chairman of Nippon Ishinokai.
47:12He will talk about how to deal with the number of employees
47:15and how to reduce the number of casualties.
47:17Let's take a look.
47:18Here's the market analysis.
47:20The New York Dow continued to rise in the New York stock market on the 20th.
47:24The end price was $42,840, which is $498.
47:29Nasdaq, which has a high ratio of high-tech stocks,
47:33The end price was $199,572, which is $199,572.
47:39The end price of the New York foreign exchange market was $1.56,
47:43which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1.56, which is $1
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48:43There is a deadline for US steel to be purchased.
48:45That's right. This is a very good deal for the United States, so it would be a shame if it was rejected, but for Japanese companies, the strategy of M&A is good, but I think that the strategy to succeed in purchasing will be a good case study this time.
49:12Mr. Yajima, where would you like to focus?
49:14I would like to see if there is a profit in January. In that sense, I would like to see how the relationship between the chairman's meeting and the previous meeting will be corrected, and what kind of reason the profit was sent in the previous meeting.
49:36This is the end of this year's broadcast. Next year's broadcast will start on January 11th. Thank you all very much.