"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Market Buzz, Senin (23/12/2024) dengan Tema Antisipasi Dampak PPN 12% ke Pasar Saham"
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00:00GAMES PLUS ARCADE is available only on RCTE Plus Super App. Play it now!
00:05Thank you, Mr. Miyarusa, for joining us again.
00:07We're still in the BUS market, and we're still going to talk about information and capital market recommendations.
00:12We'll start, Mr. Miyarusa, with the highlight market.
00:14First, we'll highlight some sentiments, especially the Rupiah,
00:17which has increased from 0.58% to 16,190 USD on Friday trading.
00:25Then, from MI10, there's Exel Asiata, or XJL,
00:28which cooperates with XHNH, or SM Enterprises, for IoT solutions.
00:34And, Mr. Miyarusa, there's news from Waskita Karya, or WSKT,
00:38which established the office building of the Governor of Papua,
00:41with a value estimated to reach Rp215 billion.
00:46We turn, Mr. Miyarusa, to some agendas that should be considered,
00:49from the United States, consumer trust,
00:51then, from the UK, there's the domestic product, Bruto,
00:55and the consumer price index from the domestic market.
00:57Let's continue, Mr. Miyarusa, to the MI10 agenda.
01:00There's COCA, or General Stockholders' Meeting,
01:02as well as MHKI, IPCC,
01:06cash dividend payment, as well as DUTY,
01:09and IPCM, DPS, Interim Cash Dividend,
01:12as well as GMFE, XHMETD.
01:17An update from Bursa Asia, Mr. Miyarusa,
01:22MHKI is expected to increase by 0.98%,
01:25Stratimes increased by 0.24%,
01:27Kospi increased by 1.07%,
01:29and Hang Seng, Hong Kong,
01:31everything is moving in a positive direction
01:33for the main indexes from Asia this morning.
01:39Let's continue, Mr. Miyarusa.
01:49This time, we will discuss, Mr. Miyarusa,
01:51about PPN 12%, which is estimated to have an impact
01:55on the capital market for various sectors,
01:58especially consumer goods, Mr. Miyarusa,
02:01then there's the property sector, banking, and retail.
02:06We will discuss with Mr. Ezarido Ibnutama,
02:09an economist from NHK Securities Indonesia.
02:12Mr. Ezarido, how are you?
02:14I'm good.
02:15Mr. Ezarido, are you on vacation?
02:17Not yet.
02:18Or are you in the middle of a vacation?
02:22Not yet, not yet, 100% vacation.
02:24Not yet 100% vacation, but are you in Indonesia?
02:27No, I'm in Japan right now.
02:29Okay, thank you for your time.
02:32Okay, Mr. Ezarido,
02:34in this vacation,
02:36what will be the market opportunities?
02:39And the most important thing is the anticipation of PPN 12%,
02:42because it is very,
02:44what is it,
02:46it has become the main concern in society.
02:49It is even estimated that the increase
02:52can be seen from 11% to 12%.
02:54But if you look at it,
02:55actually what has to be paid is around 9%,
02:58which is considered quite large.
03:00And it will have an impact on many things,
03:02including a number of sectors that I have mentioned in the capital market.
03:05What do you think, Mr. Ezarido?
03:08So if we look at the PPN that will go up,
03:12we have to look at what sectors are affected,
03:16like what was mentioned earlier,
03:19so the consumer sector.
03:21So if we look at the consumer purchasing power in Indonesia,
03:25it has begun to decline,
03:27and loan growth has also begun to slow down.
03:30That is one of the indicators that many people
03:35may not be too confident to use loans anymore,
03:41to use loans for their basic necessities,
03:45for their grocery shopping,
03:47or their monthly expenses.
03:49They tend to save more for now.
03:57That is from the retail side.
04:00And if we look at the average selling price,
04:03in some TBK companies as well,
04:07it has begun to decline.
04:09That is not because the company has lowered its price.
04:13That is because consumers have begun to buy
04:18cheaper products,
04:20compared to last year.
04:23So if we look at it,
04:24it is not keeping pace with inflation.
04:29That is exactly the point here.
04:35And we also see that if the PPN is increased,
04:38the consumer purchasing power will weaken.
04:44One more thing,
04:46we can see that there is a prospect for the defensive sector,
04:53but it is not certain.
04:54Because the defensive sector,
04:56such as healthcare,
04:57has a significant impact as well.
04:59Because VIP rooms will receive 12% PPN.
05:03This is going to be something
05:08that a lot of patients will consider.
05:13Because if they look at the price
05:16for a hospital in Indonesia,
05:19for a VIP room,
05:21if we compare it to Malaysia or Singapore,
05:24the standard of VIP rooms in Indonesia
05:26might be lower or middle up.
05:32So if a lot of patients do the calculation,
05:36why do a lot of Indonesian patients
05:39flock or migrate to Singapore
05:46to use their healthcare services?
05:51So you see,
05:53with the 12% PPN policy,
05:55which includes a few things that are considered premium,
05:57including in the health sector,
05:58this will make people who are able
06:02to choose more countries like Singapore or Malaysia, Penang.
06:07Even though the government has seen the great potential
06:10of the health industry in the country.
06:12That's why it is encouraged.
06:13But with this,
06:15maybe more people will stay in those countries.
06:20For example,
06:22Mr. Ezak,
06:23you said that the increase in minimum wage
06:30will not replace the increase in PPN.
06:34It means that even though the PPN is increasing,
06:37but with the 12% PPN policy,
06:40it will not cover it.
06:41You still see that the people's livelihoods
06:42will still be affected.
06:44Actually, if we look at the data from the BPS,
06:48currently 65% of people are paid below the minimum wage.
06:57So around 65%.
07:00If the minimum wage is increased to 6.5%,
07:05the contribution or the payment segment
07:08below the minimum wage will increase.
07:10That's the logic.
07:12Because if we look at it,
07:14there are formal sector and informal sector.
07:16And this informal sector is like a contract
07:19or paid maybe weekly.
07:23So that's one of the things I see
07:30why the increase in PPN is not too significant.
07:36Because there is a major proportion of the workforce
07:39who are also paid below the minimum wage right now.
07:42So if we increase it,
07:43more people will be paid below the minimum wage.
07:47Because the job opportunities in Indonesia
07:51are probably not too good right now.
07:55If it's good,
07:57the formal sector above the minimum wage
08:00or equal to the minimum wage
08:01should contribute to our job labor force increase.
08:06But it turns out that in Indonesia's effects stock market,
08:08most companies are more affordable.
08:16And with employees who meet the policy standards
08:19to be listed in Indonesia's effects stock market.
08:22You don't see that this business will be affected twice.
08:26Increased UMP,
08:27then later with PPN 12%,
08:29it may also affect their products
08:31or other multi-flayer effects.
08:34So the people's purchasing power is already low,
08:37then affected by the UMP costs,
08:40what is it like?
08:42It's possible that companies like those who sell consumer products
08:47will pass over the costs to the consumers
08:53if they have to increase their labor force
09:03to 6.5%.
09:04It's possible that they're just going to pass over
09:07to the consumers.
09:09Okay.
09:10So what are the steps of anticipation for investors
09:12in the middle of January 2025
09:16if PPN is indeed and certainly increased?
09:20What are the steps of anticipation for now?
09:23What should be done with the intention of saying
09:25that the sectors that will be affected are quite a lot?
09:29Negative impacts.
09:32I think investors should just wait and see.
09:36Wait and see.
09:37Just wait and see for now.
09:40Because there are many uncertainties
09:42about how the market will react.
09:44Maybe the market's reaction is already quite negative.
09:47It also affects the Fed,
09:49which appears to be less dovish for next year.
09:54We also see a lot of foreigners
09:57who want to leave Indonesia.
10:02So I would recommend for investors to wait and see
10:06how the markets will react.
10:09I think the market will react very bearish at the beginning of the year.
10:15The market will be very bearish at the end of the year.
10:19What are the targets for the end of the year?
10:21It looks like there are only 5 trading days left.
10:30Yes, we do see that it can reach 7,500
10:34for the end of the year.
10:35It can rebound.
10:36We have anticipated.
10:387,500?
10:40Yes, that's our target for the end of the year.
10:447,500.
10:45Even though there are only 5 trading days left?
10:47Yes.
10:48If we look at our bond yields,
10:52they have started to correct.
10:54Yesterday, there was a negative sentiment from the FOMC meeting
10:59and Jerome Powell said that
11:02they're going to be less dovish for next year.
11:05So there are a lot of net foreign sales.
11:09But if we look at Friday,
11:11it's more stable for the net foreign inflow.
11:16Okay.
11:17So you see that even though the IHSG is down 7,000
11:21at the end of Friday,
11:22you see that in the next 5 days,
11:24there is still a chance to pull 7,500?
11:28Yes.
11:29So we are anticipating for the Santa Claus Rally.
11:34There is still a chance for the Santa Claus Rally
11:36and window dressing, maybe.
11:37Yes.
11:38Okay.
11:39I'm a bit pessimistic,
11:41but you're more optimistic, right?
11:43Okay.
11:44What will bring the IHSG down to 7,500?
11:48It's possible.
11:50Usually, at the end of the year,
11:53the IHSG is quite significant.
11:58For example, last year,
12:00at the end of the trading day,
12:03the IHSG was able to reach the all-time high
12:07at the end of December.
12:10So I wouldn't get past them.
12:12I wouldn't get past the investors
12:15to gain renewed confidence
12:18at the end of the year.
12:20Or the retail investors,
12:22before they go on vacation,
12:24they want to withdraw their money
12:26or want to trade first
12:28before the end of the year
12:30to prepare for the trading position,
12:34their investment for next year.
12:37So I think that it's going to be very...
12:41I think it's going to have a rally
12:45at the end of this year.
12:47It's possible to reach 7,500.
12:51Some people even said it could reach 7,600.
12:55But I'm not as optimistic as them.
12:57Okay.
12:58You see 7,500 on the 31st.
13:02There's a chance the IHSG will reach it.
13:05Are there any opportunities
13:07for the investors to reach 7,500?
13:11Actually, if we look at it,
13:14from the technology sector,
13:16from the coal sector, energy,
13:19it's very prospective too.
13:22And also from the logistics sector.
13:25So if we look at those three aggressive sectors,
13:28usually those three aggressive sectors
13:31rebound quite strongly at the end of the year.
13:35So I recommend to monitor those three sectors.
13:39Okay.
13:40Maybe we will discuss the recommendation of the stock.
13:42What kind of stocks do you recommend, Mr. Ezzah?
13:46So I recommend Brand, Aman, and Pani for today.
13:54For today.
13:55So it's very short-term.
13:57And later we will discuss the timeframe,
13:59how long is the short-term.
14:00And for those who already have stocks,
14:02but you asked for a wait-and-see first
14:04about the PPN 12%,
14:06how is it?
14:07Don't hesitate to join us in MarketBas.